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Topic: How You Lose--Why You Lose (1 of 10 in a series)  (Read 162 times)

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Offline alrelax

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How You Lose--Why You Lose (1 of 10 in a series)
« on: June 13, 2017, 10:46:25 PM »
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    How You Lose—Why You Lose


    With all the beliefs and subscriptions as to easy money—'sure fire winning'—'I can beat the game'—and numerous other ones, there seems to be widespread disagreement amongst the factual raw data of gambling with games that are either fair or extremely low house advantage.  Baccarat falls into that description of being a fairly low house advantage.  However, it is all dependent upon how the player is attempting to wager, mostly with time and length played and actual number of hands.  All the rest of the game beliefs, strategies, illusions, perceptions, influences and player frame-of-minds are subjective and individual to each player. 

    It is rock solid, will not change, cannot change that, there is a definitive explanation of what actually happens to a player that plays too much.  And that is, what will happen to a player with finite resources continuously playing will inevitably go broke against a player with infinite resources in a fair or negative-expectation game. However, this is also true in a positive-expectation game if the player with finite resources continually plays and increases his stakes when winning, but does not reduce them when losing.  And you-the player have finite resources.  And the casino-your opponent has infinite resources.  Period, no discussion, factual.

    You can believe it, not believe it, incorporate it into your play or totally disregard it and be the first King Kong gambler to overtake and bankrupt any and all casinos you enter with your play and unlimited hours.  I learned and I learned the hard way.  It wasn’t in any one gaming jurisdiction or any one casino property, I was hard headed and I had to have my lights knocked out by several in each.  But one day I actually did read, understand and became 100% conscious of the time and number of hands factor.  But I did learn and moved all (well all that I know of anyway) form my subconscious to my conscious frame-of-mind when I am in the casino chair There is no magic time or number of hands whether you are winning and should stop or if you are losing and should not continue any longer.  It is individualistic and ideal to each person and their situation, experience and comfort levels.  The problem with the internet, is it causes ‘lazy learning’ in my opinion.  Meaning, “I can just go on the internet, read something, learn it, be versed in it, use it and profit from other’s mistakes and misery”.  Well, partly correct, but to really work and work in your favor the best that can—is you have to tweak, twist, turn, bend, conform and adapt—what will actually make you a winner.  And that my friend, will take trial and error, blood sweat and tears and cash. 

    Here is why I say that, because I might be able to go into a casino with $2,000.00 and play two shoes and win $15,000.00.  With the same buy-in and shoes and time played, you might be able to win only $2,000.00 or perhaps lose all together.  No matter the protocols and set-parameters of buy-in’s, wagering and time played; Game beliefs, Strategies, Illusions, Perceptions, Influences and player Frame-of-Minds will enter the picture and you will have different responses and reactions to the numerous things that happen within the course of the baccarat shoe being played out, than what I would, as long as we were not sitting side-by-side and agreeing on each and every hand with an exact wager, etc.   

    So, amongst gambling analysts, casino personnel, statisticians, ‘experts’, related professor type non-casino others, and of course, the me’s and you’s—the fresh or let’s say under 10 years of playing and the been there crowd, more than 10 years of playing people.  But the fact is, experience is realty and reality is made-formed and experienced every day at the casino, any casino, every casino.  Realizing reality is different—depends on the events produced, however it will always repeat itself, but in a random way, when it is ready.  What is a random way?  At a future date past the hand you are currently experiencing.

    Your actual results diverge from being somewhere and doing something.  The more you do that ‘something’, the more you engage—the more your results just diverge at a slower rate--faded—clouded—non meaningful, etc.,  even though you play the same amount of hands and shoes per session. 

    Reason being, your subconscious tunes out the ‘norm’ and what you are comfortable with the majority of the times.  So then, the actual ratio of results will eventually translate into either good or bad—lucky or unlucky—negative or positive, and so on. 

    Here are my two examples of why people lose—oh, there are many more but this is not a novel, this is just part of a series of baccarat play I am writing about.  #1) A most famous example I can give of why gamblers lose is, in a game of roulette at the Monte Carlo Casino on August 18, 1913, when the ball fell in black 26 times in a row. This was an extremely uncommon occurrence, although no more or less common than any of the other 67,108,863 sequences of 26 red or black. Gamblers lost millions of dollars betting against black, reasoning incorrectly that the streak was causing an "imbalance" in the randomness of the wheel, and that it had to be followed by a long streak of red.  What could they have done different?  Pounce on it.  But that is just a written and published example of what I call, false illusions and playing against what is happening.  #2)  The mistaken belief that, if something happens more frequently than normal during a period, it will happen less frequently in the future, or that, if something happens less frequently than normal during a period, it will happen more frequently in the future.  As well, and must be included is also the following.   In which a gambler decides, after a consistent tendency towards one side or a certain type of event, that the same side or event is more likely out of some mystical preconception that fate has thus far allowed for consistent results of that side or event. Believing the odds to favor that side or event, the gambler sees no reason to change to the other side or possible events from happening and then ‘regression to the means’ occurs, which is a proven outcome in gambling will happen, not might happen or could happen, but will happen.

    I saw it the other night, super clear and like my little boy taking a bit of candy from the box in his hand and shoving it into my mouth, telling me to taste it.  No choice and obvious—is what I am trying to say.  A younger gentlemen working two cards for the Players side, working them-squeezing them-peeking and blowing and dinging.  Flops a ‘Natural 8’ over.  His facial expressions, his excitement, his tallying up the forthcoming win—all so ever present.  Defined, bold, a statement as to his believes-convictions and perceptions.  Then an elderly female with little fanfare and a bit of excitement, but not much.  Flops a ‘Natural 9’.  The sheer disappointment and quick slam of the table by the younger gentlemen, I actually felt kind of bad for him.  But, what was the most interesting part to me—was the comparison on excitement and expressions which was a direct reflection of each person’s illusions, perceptions, influences and player’s frame-of-minds, regardless of the wager size from each.  The female had a much larger wager by the way than the younger gentlemen did.

    The female player could have easily have had a total of zero or anything up to an 8 and lost the hand.  She didn’t know any more or less than the younger gentlemen did as far as what was going to come out of the shoe next.  But, there was distinctive influential factors as to what each had go through their decision making processes prior to the hand coming out.  There was talk from each about ‘how and why’ each would prevail.  And I also say, the younger gentlemen could have had the advantage of not being ‘hard core’ and set in his ways the way so many older and seasoned players certainly are.  In fact, I do believe that being fresh to a game going on or fresh in the number of years played, both have certain advantages over a player that has been at the table for many shoes as well as his having many more years of experience than the other person.   

    Point being---and I do wholeheartedly believe an important point.  The harder and longer one plays, the more callous and laziness that person becomes to the important info—signs—trends and values of the sections within each shoe.  Weather that is the total number of hours and shoes for the session or the number of years of experience.   Same as most workers say for example on a construction site.  The newer workers are seemingly alert, watching everything, everywhere, all the time.  Never letting their guard down, etc.  Super CAREFUL and METICULOUS (!!!!!!!!!!!) with all capital letter and exclamation points after.  As the months and years roll ahead, that same person pays less attention and has noticeably less concern for his surroundings.  Although he is now experienced and seasoned, he opens himself up to the immediate and surrounding hazards and obstacles he once was worried about, was always conscious about, avoided and stressed over.   Eventually there came a turning point where most of those things went into his subconscious.  In fact, so many become a bit lazy as well.  By the proper definition of the word ‘lazy’ as in physically lacking output, etc., I am not referring to that.  But what just happened with this type of worker, is he just became a bit hard-headed, egotistic and in fact—a bit overconfident.  Probably not much different than the highest majority of all bac players that have ‘been there and done all that’, as the saying goes.  And those very same seasoned players I am referring to, will wager 12 times against a Banker run of 15 because of the things I laid out.  Then those exact same seasoned players, will win their 16th hand which is the 'cut' to the other side they were so adamantly convinced was going to happen 13 hands ago, they won far less than even because of table limits or their own bank roll.  Of course they also missed the 12 streak of the other side immediately coming out next only because, "that is so rare and cannot happen". 

    Be smart, stay conscious—stay alert—keep your brain working and fill your conscious with the illusions, perceptions, influences and correct frame-of-minds that will lead you to profitable and non-egotistic and knoweldabgle wins with the correct time to stop and retreat.  Be ready to pounce on those small sections identified by their turning points when the shoe does produce welcoming opportunities to clearly ‘smack the casino’ as they say.  But you are only going to be able to do that by not getting lazy, not getting over confident, not believing negative progression will make you whole, not being overly influenced with garbage, false illusions, fake and worthless perceptions and a proper frame-of-mind.   

    If you have convinced yourself that you can win with merely wagering with or against what you have statistically calculated should and will happen, while under the believe that is all there is to this game,  come back and read this in a couple of years.