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Topic: Baccarat--Pounce On It!  (Read 968 times)

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Offline alrelax

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Baccarat--Pounce On It!
« on: September 21, 2017, 06:30:50 PM »
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  • I managed to sneak a picture of the score board on my iPhone last night.

    I almost never go to the casino on Mon-Tues-Weds nights.  For some reason, I called my buddy up and told him to meet me there as I had a feeling, one of those deep down feelings.  When I got there and walked up to the baccarat table, there was some miserable campers there, everyone of them with their heads down deep into their hands!!!!  I said shoot and almost turned around and left.  But I stood there waiting my buddy, it got worse and worse, 1's, 2's and sometimes a 3rd one is not very good.  About the time my buddy walked up, he looked at me and asked me if I was sure.  I said, '100%'.  Everyone knew us there and they all said how much money they all lost, well over $20,000.00 among the 5 people there, probably more.  We sat down and each bought in for $1,500.00 and it was right at hand 45.

    Every single natural 'cut' to the opposite side and each and every player was pointing that out to us.  Every one as you can clearly see by the picture I am posting.  But, as I have said in the past, sections---sections with turning points--the most important key trigger in this game with no memory!

    As soon as it made that natural 8 on the Players on the 2nd repeating Players, everyone stacked their wagers up on the Banker for it to 'cut' to.  Except my buddy and myself.  Then the natural 9 came, BOOM!  They all stacked it up more, everyone of them.  I looked at them and squarely said, 'it changed, come on guys, let's make money'.  They all shook their heads no and were hell bent on wagering the Banker for the 'cut'.  Then Boom!  3 more players. 

    Then there was 2 Bankers and then 2 Players.  That one Player when it 'cut' to the Players was a natural 9 and once again, they were all in concert to wager back for the 'cut' to the Bankers but it made a second Player.  And then the Bankers came---a beautiful little run with 3 Fortune 7's.  I had all 3 of them with table max wagered plus additional on another spot as well.  13 Bankers counting the ties and the F-7's.  Strong, every non natural was a 3 card 8 or 9 I think anyway. 

    On the Banker I wagered about $700 or $800 and then parlayed the winning and left it there and just pulled each winning down and stacked it.  The ties were all 8's or 9's as well.  Most of the other players hit at least 2 of the Fortune 7's but they were hell bent on wagering for the 'cut' to the Players side each time. 

    My buddy and I were standing, high fiving, wagering for the dealer each time as well!  As soon as the 3rd Fortune 7 came and then 'cut' to the Players side, we colored up and called it a night.  That was it, done.  That is what I call, pouncing on it.



    Offline alrelax

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    Re: Baccarat--Pounce On It!
    « Reply #1 on: September 23, 2017, 06:47:04 PM »
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  • That 6 players and the 13 banker streak was good for a quick 25k while we hit all three fortune 7s for table max plus more on other spots!!  Hit and run while others played the cut and lost!!

    Offline ChopChop

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    Re: Baccarat--Pounce On It!
    « Reply #2 on: September 26, 2017, 03:16:41 PM »
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  •  Hey there, long time lurker here. On that long banker run, did you start betting it after the first banker appeared,or second? 1-3-2-6 progression? Did you bet the dragon 7 on every banker bet on that particular run?

    Offline alrelax

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    Re: Baccarat--Pounce On It!
    « Reply #3 on: September 27, 2017, 11:28:26 AM »
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  • Chop-Chop, Pretty much explains how we came into the game and how we wagered in the post above.

    The other perifihal circumstances that I believe in were also present, low ties, natruals cutting, and sticking, abssence in better than the first 50% of the hands/game, many circumtances.  As I do not and never will believe in a straight mechnical system to prevail better than 50% of the time.  In baccarat, as I have written there are numerous things that usually produce other events in this game. 

    Maybe if you read the series of 10 aricles within the highlighted section of my Blog you will realize some of them.There is also info I wrote about F-7's in my Blog.

    The huge problem everyone has with baccarat is what wins in one shoe or a half of shoe, will cause you lose in the other parts of the shoes or subsequent shoes. 

    I will answer other questions but this week I have been consulting for a casino installing a H.L. Asian room and I have limited access all week to this board, thanks.

    Offline ChopChop

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    Re: Baccarat--Pounce On It!
    « Reply #4 on: September 27, 2017, 02:23:10 PM »
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  • Agreed, mechanical systems are not the way to go since what works on one shoe will not work on another.

    I just wanted to know your thought process after the two doubles, just prior to the player and banker runs.  And how you specifically bet the runs, your 1326 progression, flat betting, 1+4?  Do you typically wager on the panda/dragon bonuses for the whole shoe or just on runs?  And I have read your articles in your blog, and they were very insightful.

    Just interested in your thought processes on the above two runs you made a killing on.   Thanks for responding and I hope all goes well with your consulting project.

    Offline alrelax

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    Re: Baccarat--Pounce On It!
    « Reply #5 on: September 27, 2017, 10:13:45 PM »
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  • I will give you the thought process on that,  later tonight or tomorrow .

    Offline alrelax

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    Re: Baccarat--Pounce On It!
    « Reply #6 on: September 29, 2017, 03:05:31 PM »
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  • Here are my thoughts, hope you can understand.

    I truly believe in 'sections' and 'turning points'.  Those to  define when and the usual turning point(s) of the shoes.  There are more sections and turning points, usually 3 or 4, sometimes 5 in a shoe---rather than one long series of all Banker. Player or alternating chop-chop, etc.  In well over 35 years of playing I have only seen 2 shoes with the entire shoe being 'chop-chop' plus ties and doubles/twos.  Otherwise each and every shoe has sections and turning points.  Figure them out and you will be in the money! 

    Myself, I have found out that it is extremely easy to catch 3 or 4 triggers and wagers within a section.  There is basically nothing that holds true the whole shoe, on a rare occasion but not very often by any means.  So, get that in your frame-of-mind. 

    With that said.  It was hand 47 when that double natural happened on the players side.  It was better than half way into the shoe.  Nothing much holds, time to changing my mind.  That is why I came into it and wagered the players when every one was wagering for the 'cut' of course.  I stuck on the Players side until it fell off and then went heavy on the second Banker.  I believe I was on the Banker when a natural tie came out and then I did switch to the Players side.  My reasoning was, it wanted to cut but the Banker was just a bit stronger and kept the hold.  But the player prevailed with a natural 9 for the cut.  I wagered once again on the player and then stayed on the player but wagered the Fortune 7 as well.  It made two more natural ties, the players side really wanted to make a come back and usually it would have started to play catch up and equal out.  But the Banker prevailed with another natural 9 and i do believe that was  a natural 8 for the Players.

    Hit the Fortune 7 and i always wager for the repeat Fortune 7.  It made it.  I stayed on it.  I have written about this in the past in my Blog about F-7's and what I have found.  Also, I love 'no ties to low ties' to start producing F-7's.  Which just before these F-7's and those ties, there was only 3 ties until this whole section change and turning point change when those players happened with the little run of 6.

    We identified a new section with a clear turning point when those couple back-to-back natural players came out.  Then we pounced on it for the 20-24 hands or so.  The rest the people were basically playing the shoe as it had been and they were attempting to play for the cut and everything the shoe stopped doing. No magic at all!  Just identified a new section because of the turning point. 

    Offline ChopChop

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    Re: Baccarat--Pounce On It!
    « Reply #7 on: September 30, 2017, 03:12:11 AM »
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  • Ok, thanks for explaining all of that.   So the double natural was the turning point in this shoe. 

    Did you start with your 1326 progression when you started to bet on the player and bank runs? Or was it your 1+4? 

    Do you ever believe in flat betting?   I know you're not a fan of negative progressions, neither am I.

    Again, thanks for taking the time to share some of your knowledge and experiences.

    Offline alrelax

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    Re: Baccarat--Pounce On It!
    « Reply #8 on: September 30, 2017, 05:46:39 PM »
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  • Ok, thanks for explaining all of that.   So the double natural was the turning point in this shoe. 

    Did you start with your 1326 progression when you started to bet on the player and bank runs? Or was it your 1+4?

    (I think I started with the 1-3-2-6 and then hit the F-7, I go to a 2/3-6/12-4/8-12/24, if I lose one than I would go back down to a 1-3-2-6 or flat bet until something came around again.  That is my mind frame.  Win, stack it up and adhere to my 1/3rd-1/3rd-1/3rd MM.  As far as the 1 + 4, that is strictly a 'side wager' to me and I employ that after a nice win like I pointed out in the past.  I did not here on this run, things moving to quick and too much excitement and my buddy was totally out of control with the high fiving, throwing tips to the dealers singing, etc.  Too much going on.  But when I do the 1 + 4, I would do that along with my flat bet or the positive progressions, etc. ) 

    Do you ever believe in flat betting?   I know you're not a fan of negative progressions, neither am I.

    (Yes, I flat bet all the time.)

    Again, thanks for taking the time to share some of your knowledge and experiences.

    Offline ChopChop

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    Re: Baccarat--Pounce On It!
    « Reply #9 on: September 30, 2017, 11:16:26 PM »
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  • I'm not familiar with 2/3-6/12-4/8-12/24, can you explain this progression? 

    So you like to flat bet until you start to feel more confident in the shoe, and then start your 1-3-2-6? 

    What if you make it to the 6 unit part of that progression, but you feel the next bet is a tossup.  Do you wait for a better opportunity to place your 6 unit bet?   Or just start the progression over again?

    Thanks again for you replies on this thread.

    Offline alrelax

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    Re: Baccarat--Pounce On It!
    « Reply #10 on: October 01, 2017, 05:27:39 PM »
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  • I'm not familiar with 2/3-6/12-4/8-12/24, can you explain this progression? 

    So you like to flat bet until you start to feel more confident in the shoe, and then start your 1-3-2-6? 

    What if you make it to the 6 unit part of that progression, but you feel the next bet is a tossup.  Do you wait for a better opportunity to place your 6 unit bet?   Or just start the progression over again?

    Thanks again for you replies on this thread.

    Here, let me explain--no problem.

    2/3-6/12-4/8-12/24 is a positive progression of 2 or 3 units instead of 1 Unit replaced by 2 or 3 units, instead of 3 units replaced by 6 or 12 units, instead of 2 units replaced by 4 or  units and instead of 6 units replaced by 12 or 24 units.  If I am winning and winning good, I will subconsciously just raise my progression along those means most times.

    I have different units that equal my play that I am experiencing, slow--fast-- or consistent wins, trying to make up or losing, etc.  When you are winning--you have to get the wagers out there, as you will lose at some point also.  Lose, cut down--way down, when winning-- I subscribe to stacking it up and stacking it up hard and fast, at least that is what I attempt to do.  However, the way I do it, usually leaves a good portion of my win in my buy-in or my pocket when I start to lose, unlike other players that will the highest majority of all times---give it all right back plus their buy-ins with their pursuit to continue their winning streak.  Sorry, that always back fires! 

    Flatbet.  Yes, I like to gather up some casino win money to attempt to get ahead with.  That allows myself clear thought as there is little or no risk to my buy-in, etc. 

    I do back down at various points even during a positive progression when my feeling is wrong or not quite t.  Better to win a little than lose a lot, etc. 

    If I don't flatbet but I like to bet say 1 unit, if I win I do like to parlay and then parlay a 2nd time.  Say 1 unit is $200.00 the 2nd bet would be $400.00 and the 3rd bet would be $800.00.  If I win those, then I divide up the $1,600.00 for 3 progression attempts at the 1-3-2-6 with a total of $1,400.00 to be played out in the attempt to compound the win on the casinos money I had won.

    As far as the 1 + 4 Side Wager that I love so much---that is stuck in 'here and there' with my bets--but seldom alone and seldom back-to-back in a row.  That wager is pure gravy in my book and has made me huge easy money without stress!!!!   

    Hope that clears up your questions, no problem to answer.

    Offline ChopChop

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    Re: Baccarat--Pounce On It!
    « Reply #11 on: October 02, 2017, 02:08:25 AM »
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  • I know that you dislike rebuying, you prefer to buy in once and that's it, correct?  Any benefit to buying in smaller multiple times, for someone with weak discipline?

    How many units do you typically buy in for?   Does your unit size change throughout the session?

    For your 1/3 put away system.   Is it for all wins or just after you double up your initial buy in.   

    I'm learning allot from your responses,  thanks again.






    Offline alrelax

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    Re: Baccarat--Pounce On It!
    « Reply #12 on: October 02, 2017, 01:07:54 PM »
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  • I know that you dislike rebuying, you prefer to buy in once and that's it, correct?  Any benefit to buying in smaller multiple times, for someone with weak discipline?  (I would have to say, IMO--no.  However, you have to be comfortable and confident in your bank-roll and the buy-in.  Psych is a very important part of gambling IMO.  Comfort level and vision are huge with me and since I identified them and cater to those 2, I have done much better with lots of decision making abilities I did not have earlier on.  You have to search your history and realize what you need to win, when you do.  For myself, I realized after years of playing, lose is lose and win is win.  I cannot force the win, you can't, no one can!  Myself, if I win with my initial buy-in, I generally do well.  If I lose, I generally lose no matter what I buy-in with and o tell you the truth, most of my friends and gambling associates do as well!!  Here is the clincher--the times we continually buy-in with additional funds, we might get even or win a little, but when you add up all the lost additional buy-ins, those far outweigh the profits we attempted to earn.  That is why I do not, very seldom, ever buy in with additional funds upon a losing a complete buy-in.)

    How many units do you typically buy in for?   Does your unit size change throughout the session?   (Varies greatly depending upon what I am doing.  Local, out of town, passing by, whom is playing, how long I desire to stay or try etc.  But let's say I am local and for a few shoes, seldom play more than 2 to 4 shoes anyway, odds stacked against you playing all night, every night by far.  I would have to say between 25 to 50 units.  But that is the buy-in, the start.  Might change once I start playing with wins or losses as to how I quickly progress with buy-in as compared to units wagered.)

    For your 1/3 put away system.  Is it for all wins or just after you double up your initial buy in.  (I generally start my 1/3rd MM system once I double or greater than double win.  But I have to stress, I do not have a stop loss and I risk my entire buy-in each time I play.  It might not be on immediate shoe--might switch tables if another one is available or wait for another shoe, etc.  But I do not subscribe to the loss 6 or 10 units and then stop the session.  My session stop loss is my entire buy-in.)

    I'm learning allot from your responses,  thanks again.

    Offline alrelax

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    Re: Baccarat--Pounce On It!
    « Reply #13 on: October 02, 2017, 03:16:38 PM »
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  • "Quote from: ChopChop on Today at 02:08:25 am

        I know that you dislike rebuying, you prefer to buy in once and that's it, correct?  Any benefit to buying in smaller multiple times, for someone with weak discipline?"

    I think it may give you a false sense of security.  That would to myself. I have found myself in the past saying, 'I can go for it because I always have $XYZ left for another buy-in', etc.  I rather have on top of the table (most times) what I am risking, the funds in my pocket are locked up as win, possibly a reserve for another buy-in from a win as well, but not 100% dedicated to being that. 

    Bottom line, define your buy-in, define what you do best with as far as buy-in's and money on the table, etc.  Follow what is most comfortable and best for yourself.  IMO, try not to get into the protocol of holding funds for additional buy-in's, you subject yourself to additional losses and the false sense/belief you can make up losses with additional funds/chasing, etc.