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Offline alrelax

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Dare to Win--Scared to Lose
« on: October 06, 2017, 12:42:23 PM »
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  • Worthy of its own thread.  From:  Lungyeh:

    I personally know of a guy who walks around the baccarat tables and catch the hot customers and follows their bets for 2-3 times the most. He bets like 5k per hand. And then moves on. Regular player. Understand that he rakes in @ US$500,000 per annum. Casinos hate players like him who exercise total control. All serious work.  (Alrelax:  Yes, there are players that troll around the larger casinos and attempt to locate a 'hot' player and follow them and as well--those that wager the opposite as well.  Unfortunately you and I and all others only see a small amount of what they do in our presence.  I have seen this for years, especially at the busy casinos.  Don't fool yourselves, what they do is NOT magical and not the catch all holy-grail, not by any means, they have all kinds of down falls, all kinds!)

    This is an extract from the latest version of my book in progress. Categorising 4 different types of players. See which category are you and make the necessary changes to make yourself in the first category.

    1. Dare to win. Scared to lose

    The only recommended category of long term winners. When on a hot streak, dare to win. When in the Shar Chi or Killing Phase, be scared to lose and size down your bets or don't bet at all.  (Alrelax:  Yes, absolutely!  But the unfortunate truth is, most (Most--not all) players are very reluctant to really stack it up on the real hot streaks and easy pickings when the shoe is giving super easy clusters and streaks or even long chop's, etc.  Players just get into their minds that baccarat is a consistent 'cut' and they cannot profit by really stacking it up, etc.  Likewise, they should be scared to lose but unfortunately most all of the players are really desperate and cannot afford to lose for financial purposes or other psych reasons so they are so mind-clouded, no clear vision.)

    2. Scared to win. Scared to lose.

    Social gambler not used to parting away with hard earned money and also don't or cannot believe in gaining easy money. However, there are also people who make a comfortable living out of this approach. Have to really work on overcoming the inherent house edge. (Alelax: I do agree but very limited, and these players usually go bust or wind up diving into their savings and real funds they have access to because they are so convinced they can make a killing to re-coup all they have lost, etc.  Seen it so many times.)

    3. Dare to win. Dare to lose.

    Reckless big time loser. When winning in a Hot Phase, they can make a lot of money. However, when they are losing in the Killing Phase, they continue to bet big or bigger and tend to lose all their winnings plus bankroll. Tweak to 'Scared to lose' by imposing lots of self control when losing so as to emerge winner. (Alrelax:  Really, IMO---about the same as #1 PLAYERS, they ill just about all really convert to this type of gambler.  They are so confident to recoup and they actually wager larger and larger with more clouded and reckless decisions when they are losing.  So clear to see this at the tables.  I have wrote about winning and setting it aside and continuing with a clear past--wipe the slate clean type of thinking and when losing, slow down, refuse negative progressions more than once or maybe twice, don't put yourself in this mental/psych stress situation!)

    4. Scared to win. Dare to lose.

    The most common category of gamblers. When they win 1-2 hands even in a Hot Phase, they size down their bets or even refrain from betting. When they are losing in a Killing Phase, they continue to bet big or even bigger. Sure loser. it's a psychological thing. Needs to change mindset and approach to the game. (Alrelax:  About the same as #3, but i actually don't watch the players enough to see and analyze their win money unless it is myself-friends, etc.  But what I do notice a bit at the tables are those players that do bet small when winning, compared to t they do risk to recoup and negative progressions and then when they get even, they usually throw in a large amount and win once or twice and that continually fuels them for the upcoming disaster of impending failure they will meet each time.)


    Offline alrelax

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    Offline Lungyeh

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    Re: Dare to Win--Scared to Lose
    « Reply #2 on: October 07, 2017, 03:29:42 AM »
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  • A baccarat shoe is reflective of one's life journey. Nothing stays the same. Not in baccarat. Not in life. Its also like a long drive. Certain parts of the journey is on the highway. Smooth flow. Other parts is like city driving. Traffic jams. Some heavy some light. Occasionally there may be an accident or two.

    So in a baccarat shoe, the strong trending patterns can suddenly change. A long dragon trend of 8 bankers suddenly changes into an unrecognisable random pattern. Alternating patterns of banker-player changes into random 2B, 1P, 3B, 2P so on and so forth.

    When the trend is strong, dare to win and believe. When its random and in the Neutral or Killing Phase, reduce the bets or don't bet at all. Each player must come up with their own rules of how to bet during these phases to money manage. Maximise the wins and minimise the losses.

    My own rules (sigh! I admit I sometimes fail to adhere to them strictly) is that if I have won 4 times or more in a row and then made a losing bet, the next bet will be 50% or less of the last bet amount. No Martingales. If I had won less then 4 times and made a losing bet, the next bet will be the minimum bet of the table. Note that I don't bet every hand.

    Offline Garnabby

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    Re: Dare to Win--Scared to Lose
    « Reply #3 on: October 07, 2017, 04:33:04 PM »
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  • A baccarat shoe is reflective of one's life journey. Nothing stays the same. Not in baccarat. Not in life. Its also like a long drive. Certain parts of the journey is on the highway. Smooth flow. Other parts is like city driving. Traffic jams. Some heavy some light. Occasionally there may be an accident or two.
    Life doesn't involve a bunch of broken-down gamblers sitting around betting on it.  Life is lived.

    Offline alrelax

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    Re: Dare to Win--Scared to Lose
    « Reply #4 on: October 07, 2017, 04:33:20 PM »
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  • The single largest factor in successful play and my own, I do believe is 'frame-of-mind'.  The psych end of it all, with clear vision and thought, etc. 

    Offline Garnabby

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    Re: Dare to Win--Scared to Lose
    « Reply #5 on: October 07, 2017, 04:34:22 PM »
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  • The single largest factor in successful play and my own, I do believe is 'frame-of-mind'.  The psych end of it all, with clear vision and thought, etc.
    You mean the addiciton?

    Offline alrelax

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    Re: Dare to Win--Scared to Lose
    « Reply #6 on: October 07, 2017, 04:52:42 PM »
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  • Nope, I mean gambling.  Gambling the way I do.  I cannot talk for others here or anywhere else.  But I have a long time career and other interests.  I have a full time income, benefits and savings.  I have goals and pursuits.  I always have and always will.  I know my limits, my dark sides and my desires. 

    You see I grew up in South Florinda during the Miami Vice days of the late 60's and 1970's.  And every one of my high school friends, classmates and in fact--everyone I knew except for 1 person there, was either just getting out of Federal Prison a few years after 9-11 happened or dead.  I never got involved in drugs, drinking or even smoking.  I never got involved in womanizing or other degenerate things. 

    I was always and still am, excited to work and love to work.  I always will.  I have been fortunate enough to have the funds and the family that wanted to also, visit Atlantic City, Vegas, and other gaming jurisdictions. But we use them for entertainment, shows, dining, attractions and the many other things all around the majority of them.  I also gamble but I gamble within certain aspect with funds put aside.

    I have been extremely lucky the past 15 years or so and built a business and sold it for a nice profit.  I also have a gamble savings account of sorts and it provides me the funds I need so I do not draw from or use other sources of income I have.  Sure I want to do other business ventures and have other money for my kids, but I don't seek and do not attempt to get those from gambling---which is the majority if not everyone's downfall that I know. 

    So you say addiction, might be for some, might  for others.  Myself, I use my gambling to supply me with numerous things I would have purchased anyways--usually for my kids or just 'gravy' type of items.  I run pretty equal--pretty neutral in my bank roll.  I do not and never will increase it to gamble more or larger.  Maybe that is why I can do what I do and losses do not effect me and my wins are realized, most of them kept and spent on items or things.  I also have the willpower and the knowledge to know the limits and the downsides.  SO when I do win $20,000.00 or $40,000.00, I pretty spend the heck of it right away-save a bit of it and maybe put 10 or 15% of it in the bank roll.  I don't sit there and gamble larger and harder or go back the next day and arrive fully convinced that I won $20,000.00 and now i can win 200,000.00 and give it all back and then all my buy-in and then all my bank roll, etc.  That is what the upper 90% of every one does and they do it continually.  Me, no-way Jose!  Not this pompous, loud mouth, jerk, know it all and handsome person.  Nope.

    So, addiction--sure.  Pretty much the same for drug people, womanizers, business start up people that continually fail, investors that don't have a frigging clue and all sorts of other things.  In fact, Asian Triads of NYC, the same thing, the same money earned, money spent and repercussions.  No different than a gambling addiction, IMO.

    Offline Lungyeh

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    Re: Dare to Win--Scared to Lose
    « Reply #7 on: October 08, 2017, 02:49:17 AM »
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  • Life is as you make it out to be. When can play baccarat on a social basis and the texture of the game would still be the same.

    One can play baccarat on a professional basis in which case it is like running a business. And running a business, in most cases, would be life consuming. You live, breathe, sleep and eat business. Most people who has started a business or two would attest to that. Of course, you have the freedom of choice to be an employee and not consume your life with what you consider unnecessary. God bless.

    Offline Ted009

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    Re: Dare to Win--Scared to Lose
    « Reply #8 on: October 08, 2017, 09:35:28 AM »
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  • This is a sound advice from the real baccarat player. Thank you, Lungyeh, for sharing it! God bless!

    Life is as you make it out to be. When can play baccarat on a social basis and the texture of the game would still be the same.

    One can play baccarat on a professional basis in which case it is like running a business. And running a business, in most cases, would be life consuming. You live, breathe, sleep and eat business. Most people who has started a business or two would attest to that. Of course, you have the freedom of choice to be an employee and not consume your life with what you consider unnecessary. God bless.

    Offline Lungyeh

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    Re: Dare to Win--Scared to Lose
    « Reply #9 on: October 08, 2017, 10:09:29 AM »
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  • Actually, I have come to the carefully considered opinion that baccarat can be considered to be the best business for an individual. Consider - no customers, no suppliers, no government regulations, no HR problems, no manufacturing, no quality issues, no bad debts. How much you want to risk is entirely up to you. When you want to risk is entirely up to you. If I fail its because of me and me alone.

    Yes, we have to overcome certain challenges in order to prevail. But its the same in every field.

    Just some food for thought.

    Offline Ted009

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    Re: Dare to Win--Scared to Lose
    « Reply #10 on: October 08, 2017, 10:33:22 AM »
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  • Actually, I have come to the carefully considered opinion that baccarat can be considered to be the best business for an individual. Consider - no customers, no suppliers, no government regulations, no HR problems, no manufacturing, no quality issues, no bad debts. How much you want to risk is entirely up to you. When you want to risk is entirely up to you. If I fail its because of me and me alone.

    Yes, we have to overcome certain challenges in order to prevail. But its the same in every field.

    Just some food for thought.

    I have no doubt that you can do it because you already have proven yourself not just in baccarat but in life. God bless!

    Offline alrelax

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    Re: Dare to Win--Scared to Lose
    « Reply #11 on: October 08, 2017, 07:18:31 PM »
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  • Life is as you make it out to be. When can play baccarat on a social basis and the texture of the game would still be the same.

    One can play baccarat on a professional basis in which case it is like running a business. And running a business, in most cases, would be life consuming. You live, breathe, sleep and eat business. Most people who has started a business or two would attest to that. Of course, you have the freedom of choice to be an employee and not consume your life with what you consider unnecessary. God bless.

    Absolutely!  Success, failure, profits versus losses.  Like many other occupational things, we (you and I) control our own destiny in any financial as well as personal pursuits. 

    You simply get out of it---what you put into it, in so many aspects.   

    Offline Garnabby

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    Re: Dare to Win--Scared to Lose
    « Reply #12 on: October 08, 2017, 09:54:26 PM »
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  • Me, no-way Jose!  Not this pompous, loud mouth, jerk, know it all and handsome person.  Nope.
    Well, I guess you have found a way to get something out of baccarat.  That's hard to do.

    Offline alrelax

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    Re: Dare to Win--Scared to Lose
    « Reply #13 on: October 10, 2017, 04:08:48 PM »
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  • Life is as you make it out to be. When can play baccarat on a social basis and the texture of the game would still be the same.

    One can play baccarat on a professional basis in which case it is like running a business. And running a business, in most cases, would be life consuming. You live, breathe, sleep and eat business. Most people who has started a business or two would attest to that. Of course, you have the freedom of choice to be an employee and not consume your life with what you consider unnecessary. God bless.

    HERE, I had this posted elsewhere, kind of fits the aura of business and baccarat as a business:


    IMO and from my business experience over the years:

    Books and movies are 100% subjective and usually tailored to whatever it is the author/writer/producer/director wants to convey and usually for monetary reasons, not personal or life changing pursuits.  In NO WAY are they gospel or can a random one be tailored to an 'end all' change-all guide for making money.  Can points and tips be found, sure--why not.

    As far as 'financial risk' in business, whether it is gambling or regular business, I have to have it covered, no matter what it is--or I will not do it.  I have to really want to do it--or I will not do it.  The quick fix to make a buck is usually illegal, wrong (bad karma) or will blow up in your face for numerous reasons.  Believe what you want.

    In business, I pay in advance and then set aside and lock up money each and every time it comes in.  Split it up and allocate it all.  Same as gambling at baccarat!!!!

    I have my mortgage on the property covered with 6 to 8 payments locked up in envelopes.  I have a set aside account at the bank in addition to the regular checking account and as well, the payroll and tax account is also separate.  I have to keep a good 5 to 7 months of total expenses and enough to cover the expenses of any jobs (I have expenses on jobs that always have to be paid prior to receiving the job payment the bulk of the times).  That way I can go for numerous months without anything coming in, which is doubtful.  Everything is covered or I believe I would fail.  Insurance, trucks upkeep and maintenance expenses, payroll and payroll tax payments, personnel misc expense, health care insurance co-payment, phones, utilities, inventory, permits, office supplies, grounds upkeep and maintenance, equipment replacements and upkeep, etc.  When i get in a payment so a small job for $10,000.00, I replenish whatever I need to bring it up to whatever level i am comfortable at and if that payment cannot do it---split it up.  Maybe 25% towards the replenishment of monies spent, 25% towards reserve fund, 25% for current bills and 25% for me in my commissions and bonus set-aside.  To me, that is the only way to run a business.

    As well, I do almost the same thing with my gambling, my 1/3rd money management system so many have commented on here will not work.  Which is, 1/3rd to my buy in stack, 1/3rd to my pocket and can never ever be touched at the casino and 1/3rd for a possible second buy-in if things favor it and i desire to stay if my buy in is depleted.  My wins will fuel my continued existence at the table.  Works great and when every other player is getting his buy ins and bankroll supplemented by his wins---then his larger wagers and continued existence at the table usually every time wipes him out.  I seldom leave the casino with losing my buy in and maintain no win money, extremely rare, once in a while, but rare.

    Business is no different, it is all in allocation , survival and planning, all of it!

    As far as the Shorting/opposite, good luck with that.  You will most likely pull yourself under with that one eventually, big time.  Wrong thought and wrong ammunition, IMO.

    Because, you fuel yourself with 'false aura', 'false system' and 'false conception'.  It will work and then it will not work.  Been there and done it many times.  Heck, I still occasionally will do it, most of the time subconsciously and then I wake up.  The game is won and lose by almost every player, some win more and some lose more.  Some wager super trivial and don't care if they lose or not and then pounce on it once in awhile and score huge.  Numerous protocols from each player.  But the player that sits there and repeatedly wagers and repeatedly loses is probably what you are talking about.  However, yes--at times.  But that is no different that in a shoe that is producing solid and repetitive patterns that no one will follow and they continue to wager their 'cut' theories or the people that believe the statistics will 100% be produced in the 3 shoes they will be playing, etc.  All you are doing is adding a 'system' by classifying a player as a loser based on what you see.  And the sad part about it, he might not lose those 10 times you wager against him (shorted him) out of the 100 he will lose out of 130 if you were not wagering against him.  For the 1 or 2 years experience a player has that chooses this style of wagering, he has not played the game long enough to realize what might happen.  All IMO of course.

    I did it last week.  There was a player wagering one way and i said to myself he is losing.  I wagered against him several times and the only reason I placed the wager was because he was repeatedly losing.  This guy always loses at the end of the night, almost always.  I won like 4 hands, maybe 5 hands straight by wagering that way.  Then I look at the board and really studied it.  It was half way through the shoe.  I believe in sections with turning points.  They always come out and always are produced, period.  Each one of those wagers I made and won, were 100% clear wagers I would have made anyway based solely on what the shoe has produced within that section after a certain turning point.  The reason he lost his wagers was, he wagered against what the shoe was producing, the shoe was super strong and getting stronger and he believed for the 'cut' the regression to the mean--every single hand.  I wagered against him but i was also wagering (without knowing it) with what the shoe was producing.  And I would everyday of the week with my last money, wager with the shoe rather than the continual, 'against the shoe' which is so prevalent these days.  What these people count on is the same as the following.  "I will get on such and such highway and speed because there are never cops on that one", no different.

    I will cut it here because so many will only say my posts are too long.  Last week there was 48 or so players and 20 something bankers at the end of the shoe.  The majority of the players around hand 65 or so was heavy, real heavy on Bankers and lost so much money.  It was super strong players, regression was not coming and sometimes it is like that.  They cannot see it.  They don't believe it. They wager on what they want, not what the shoe is producing, plain and simple.  There is a difference and a huge difference.  BUT, HOWEVER, there are little 'blurbs of catch up' by the opposite side, like the banker never makes over a 3 repeat maybe once the whole shoe sitting at and 60 or so, and then a 4th banker comes out.  The players faces light up, heavy wagers, like table max times 5 or 6 people, huge money.  Then the player comes out.  They repeat the same exact thing like 3 times.  Heavy losses.  Although there banker side never really even came close to catching up---they got sucked in, exactly why that electronic board is there, exactly the fall of 99% of all baccarat losses. I hope you understand what i am trying to get across, it is so simple yet so complicated.