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Topic: Good Views ad Explanations  (Read 198 times)

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Offline alrelax

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Good Views ad Explanations
« on: September 11, 2017, 02:06:35 PM »
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  • I observed a post response made by 8or9 which hits spot-on on many items.  This was the post:


    "Re: Making bet selection complex doesn't help in a random game
    Reply #133 on: Today at 01:26:16 pm

    In every form of speculation or business startup, the speculator or businessman must fight a negative expectation (  except card counting in blackjack......which is no longer practical since you will eventually get thrown out unless you can put together a team such as the MIT team or the Holy Rollers )

    In gambling, poker has the casino rake, dealer tip, and  after each pot, the band beat jackpot contribution as a negative expectation.

    Roulette, baccarat and dice have a 1.3 % to 5.6 % negative expectation because of below fair payouts on winning bets.

    In sports betting you generally have to bet $11 to win $ 10

    In starting a business, you have a negative expectation of paying for business licenses, paying employees, paying rent for a location, paying utilities, paying for insurance etc etc etc.

    In trading stocks or forex or commodities, you have the negative expectation of paying commissions for each trade, and "slippage", where you get the worst side of the trade ( you buy on the offer and sell on the bid price )

    Whether you play casino games or start your own business, you have to deal with the 3 main reasons which will cause you to fail:

    1. Poor business management....... failure to respond to changing economic conditions ( which now happen very rapidly )

    2. Inferior, obsolete or poorly priced product that you offer to sell

    3. Not sufficiently capitalized to handle the inevitable down swings in your business

    Betting on casino games is basically just like running a business, and you must be able to deal with all 3 of the above situations.

    1. Poor business the game you are playing changing ? are the odds changing ?, are new odds or bets being offered ? is casino management changing as to how they monitor the game you are playing .  Is the game you are playing no longer beatable?

    2.Inferior, obsolete or poorly priced product that you offer to your bet selection no longer valid, or does it have to be modified depending on the current spins of a roulette wheel or current texture of the baccarat shoe you are playing ?

    3.Not sufficiently capitalized to handle the inevitable down swings in your business ...this is the most you have sufficient bankroll to handle the worst drawdown possible ? Are you betting too high a % of bankroll on each bet or session ?

    If you are trying to make a "career" in business, gambling or speculation, you must deal with the above   3 situations.

    The most important point to remember is that the main objective is not to "make money".....the main objective in bankroll do not want to put yourself into a position where you lose most, or all of your business capital or gambling bankroll by risking too much as a % or capital or bankroll on any given bet or session.......because if you lose your business capital or bankroll, you are out of the game.

    The only way to avoid failure is to risk a small % of bankroll on each bet and session, and try to stay in the game so that when the tome comes when you have to bet, and hopefully win, on your winning bets, you are still in the game......because in a negative expectation game, you have to win more on your winning bets that you lose on your losing bets.

    Generally, you need a "big" bankroll to succeed......and "big" is a relative term......$ 50,000 may seem big to the forum members......but $ 50,000 is tip money for the waitress for Bill Gates.

    If you are undercapitalized in a business startup, speculating in stocks, forex or commodities or betting on casino will eventually fail."

    I would like to add:

    I rather not respond to the location it is at, and likewise--it is totally worthwhile to stand alone in a topic.

    Regarding the business cites 8or9 mentions.  You can also add huge business expenses such as:

    Bad client pay/no pay/reduction of invoicing to get paid, etc.  Not with retail but very real in a service business, even with an agreement or contract.  There is a whole new bred of doing business post 2008 down turn in economy where these larger companies, banks, insurance companies, etc., all have hired the 'business consultants' which negotiate most of their accounts payable, everything except their building payments, utilities, etc.  Very real, very destructive to the smaller business owner!

    Deprecation of your equipment.
    Employee damages.
    Theft, you rather not turn in the your insurance carrier for fear of hire rates and cancellations.

    Used to be 1/3rd-1/3rd and 1/3rd figured in business was safe.  That is where I got the 1/3rd thing that makes me prevail and hold my win money with no chance to give it back to the casino in my baccarat play.  But anyway, 1/3rd for the business into the general operating account, 1/3rd for the job's bills--out of pocket and expenses and payroll, and 1/3rd for the business owner.  That was a very successful way to divide up all payments coming in.  But now since 2008/2010 or so, it has changed IMO, to something more along the lines of 40-40-20/85-15 or so. 

    All expenses have considerably went up with numerous discounts/cuts/and tax advantages being taken away.  Work harder or gamble more with less pay/rewards.

    Even in gambling this was started with MGM and CET following close behind with the virtual elimination of their 'discretionary comps/bonuses/loss rebates/promotion chips', etc. etc.  Now it is virtually all back end comps unless you are a super strong, regular long time player at $500 per hand average and up.  Also, even for those players I just mentioned still maintaining their statuses with MGM and CET, the larger casino chains all pulled their, reward points to the player programs.  Which I mean, we used to get and average of 1,000 to 3,000 points for each session played,  for our own 'points bank' we could use those points, 1 point equals one dollar.  But around 2012/2013 they changed all that.  They made it where you lost all your 'point bank' for your comps, hotel, food, air fare, room set-up incidentals, transportation, etc.  Everything but loss rebates to promotion chips was taken away upfront from your point balance.  The only way to beat it, was to run out immediately and spend any points you earned, before they had a chance to remove them.  Which is far to uncomfortable and takes away from your frame-of-mind while gambling. 

    The #'s 1, 2 and 3--8or9 cites are very beatable by the player indeed.  But instead of concentrating on systems and some kind of magical holy-grail betting, the player needs to realize a ton of other things and how to manage his win money and how to make his win money propel his wagering and motivation without any chance to give it all back and go on the war-path to recoup the lost win money and numerous other things along those lines.

    If you are searching for the definitive math or science that will afford you with winning bet placement schedules, you will not and cannot prevail no matter what anyone is writing about.  The way you beat the casinos and profit yourself, is not done with definitive wagering placement wagers based upon a system and place your wagers and sit back and rack in the money. 

    So, is it beatable or is it not beatable?  That is the question.  And the answer is this, IMO.  It is beatable to a point, but the player has to be 100% conscious of numerous factors and have the wherewithal to play without being sucked in by many factors that can do it, from the casino to the players to the dealers.  The player must be aware and knowledgeable of many factors that will effect his play and his win money.  From having a system that will allow him to divide up his win money to having the conscious knowledge of what his plateaus are, along with many other relevant and important things that will allow him to profit and make money at certain times.