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Topic: The way some players think & their path to giving it back and losing  (Read 287 times)

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Offline alrelax

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Quote:  ‘AsymBacGuy’:  “Unfortunately people like to dream that games are easily beatable instead of learning why they are unbeatable or difficulty beating.”

And you know, I read that the other day, I have been to the casino the past two nights with my New York City buddy, the one that retired a couple of years ago from the NYPD and spent a couple of decades on NYPD’s Truck 1, which is part of their elite ‘Emergency Service Unit’ the swat team, the high risk anything team of crazy officers.  And here in the Midwest we stand out, oh boy—do we.  In fact he was there the night I picked up the shoe from the baccarat table at a local casino and I throw it in the middle of the pit because the dealer was acting like a complete and utter jerk, never would have went past the table level at a New Jersey or a Connecticut, or a Vegas casino---but this is the Midwest the land of subtle, easy and soft spoken everything.  Probably he stepped in and talked to their security as well as the local police and one of the reasons I didn’t go to jail for disorderly conduct or something of the likes. 

So I am with my NYC buddy and we are into the baccarat game, deep involved in it.  In fact, we are singing ‘Taking Care of Business’ and we are going over the verses from Bachman Turner Overdrive.  “Taking Care of Business everyway.  I’ve been taking care of business it’s all, Taking Care of Business and working mine overtime, work out”.  Then we both go into “You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet” also by BTO.  “You ain’t seen nothing yet, B-b-b-b-baby, you just ain’t seen nothing yet, Here’s something that you never gonna forget.  B-b-b-b-baby you just ain’t seen nothin yet”.

And, right about this time I actually thought of you all here, and exactly that quote that I made from ‘AsymBacGuy’ above!  At the casino, with the money on the table and all.  That is why I remember this so vividly and clearly to write it!  You know let’s really look at this statement.  Years of play—not months or a year or a few years of play like most have and then decide they can write a book or teach casino gambling.  It really takes years and actually decades to understand what the casino can dish out and how the cards fall.  It is far more involved than just the rules of the game, just a few strategies and simple triggers to rack in the money.  There are the people, there is the aura and the excitement going on all around us.  Numerous things can and will distract you from the proper play or play that you really do want to make that you were side tracked from and turns out, the play you stopped yourself from making---was the correct play not the play that was being orchestrated at the table by a bunch of over hyped players who thought they were on a roll and were on their winning streak just before they gave it all back and then they all gave up their buy ins and their pocket money as well.   

Problem is, we tend to remember, expand upon and remain with the positive thoughts, the positive things and the wins.  What about the negative things, the tough things, the things that are not nice or generous—the things that take away from you at the game of baccarat.  They are there, they don’t go away, it is hard to identify them and they show no rhyme or reason when they appear or how long they stay for.

The problem is, when we win in a game of baccarat we stack up our win chips with our current play stack, giving us motivation, energy, reason, dreams and the ammunition of guts—to overcome and beat the negative and the hands we have to endure to move on to the gold that we know is coming, or at least that is what we keep telling ourselves.  That is what the highest majority of us think, see and replicate when we do play baccarat. 

I see it all the time.  I see a rationale, smart, intelligent—player, sit down and start to bang it out.  Then when his chips compile, stack and rise—something happens, something sets in.  Each and every time!  They change, oh boy do they change!  Not outside, not away from the table, just while they are at the table.  They change 100%!  They become convinced their win will continue, they become hard headed, head strong and they dwell in the ‘temporary suspended’ place they put themselves.  The space that they will sink themselves in, each and every time.  I see it, time after time after time after time at the casinos.   One can visually see this change so clear and so plain it is like a fast-forward of a person that just consumed a large amount of alcohol and how their state changes.  The players never ever change.  The continue to inflict the same thing among themselves, their own doom.

That is the exact point the ship of consciousness that they are in, will convert them to their state of awake unconsciousness.  Some faster than others but they just about all get converted and merge into their ‘know it all stage of anything and everything’, each time.  The faster and more intense the win came, the faster they convert from consciousness to an awake stage of unconsciousness.  The other night there was back-to-back Fortune 7’s and then a long streak of Bankers to follow.  When the highest majority of the times, the Bankers will cut to Players on the next hand after a Fortue-7, let alone a back-to-back re-occurrence of an F-7.  There was 6 Bankers after the 2nd F-7 making it an 8 Banker streak.   To my surprise, quite a few players were on that Fortune 7 and then they all pumped it up for the repeat that so seldom happens in the overall picture, but it did.  They all stayed on the Bankers side and pumped that up as well, quite a change—I thought to myself, thank God—they finally seen the light and got some old school moves, they finally stopped with all the continually ‘cut’ stuff even when the shoe became strong, etc.   Although my thoughts were short lived and not quite the new protocols for the players, it was a nice thought while it lasted. 

Anyway, that is the point most find themselves.  Most don’t even know they were touched or swept away by the game.  Here we write about it, but at the casino—it is an entirely different story.  It is so glamorous to write about the holy-grail discovery of a simplistic system—such as wagering the opposite of a past 2 in a row, of its opposite which was started after a single win result.  In fact—many of us will realize we can make a career or attempt a career out of writing gambling systems, why not.  Look at all the gullible, all the naïve and all the desperate players at any casino—they are there and the need to win.  Everyone wants a sure-thing, an easy wager that will provide wins, the highest majority of the times-but there is nothing and I mean nothing that will win every time or merely every time in baccarat.  Sure there are events that do turn into opportunities and these can as easily win or lose money just as easy as anything else in this game. 

For example, you can have every hand following a natural, cut sides.  Or, you can have every subsequent hand for several, stick on the same side the natural won for.  Then all of a sudden, the pattern could change.  Or, you might have one side only able to pull off a singular win and the opposite side continue with 3, 4, 5, 6  or 7 repeating wins in a row, each time.  This is a perfect example to bring out the strategies the players will employ.  Which is, cut back to equaling out, won’t stick more than 3 in a row—and generally something with point value #’s that prevailed for the winning hands.  But they are all short lived, sectioned only and usually with identifiable turning points.  But that is exactly where the players get tripped up.  The see it, identify it and continue with it, section after section after section, long after it appeared and vanished.  Baccarat is a game of hit it while it is there and back off until something else comes.  Like I say, ‘pounce on it’.  But all the feelings, the commotion, the excitement sets in and the players want it to continue and that is where the casino has the largest strangle hold on them all, the players cannot control themselves, their winning ways and their chip stacks.  The get a shot of motivation and energy and their insides go crazy---the head themselves for a high speed crash, each and every time. 

The ideal and opportunistic time to profit is when the shoe is producing the stronger and longer events before the correction and reversal back to the all too common 1’s and 2’s and occasional 3 in a row, etc.  And IMO, it does not matter if those ‘events’ are the repeating ones or the ones that cut to another side each time or every other time, etc.  When the best opportunistic events are over in a shoe, it has extreme tendencies to vary back and forth as well as throw players off with an occasional, several ‘repeating’ hands out of nowhere in a row, etc.  The picture I am trying to paint—is a shoe has a limited number of best events within it and the players that believe in redundancy rock-solid always going to appear type of events, are misled!  These players build the aura at the casino and these players suck in other players to follow them with building false and fake comradeship that will not last.  Even when those players get a good run and stack up some serious win chips—all they do is have their false perceptions fueled by those winning hands.  Then with all certainty, their chip stack will be giving back in short order.  They can’t even see that, the same thing that allowed them to win their wagers, also takes their money without feeling, without regard, without bias.

What’s even funnier is that, I always hear the players yell—scream—and explain out loud their decisions that allowed them to win!  Very seldom do I hear them admit, let alone yell and explain with nearly the same tone of voice—that their pre-selected bet placement methods caused their losses.  I also think that, they do not even realize what caused them to lose in the first place.

So while something can help a player win, the very same thing can cause a player to lose.  And that seems to be the biggest thing so many fail to realize or will not believe.  IMO and the opinions from many players I associate with is that, you will greatly improve your game when you release all of the false beliefs that certain baccarat events always repeat themselves and will let you win hand after hand after hand—event after event after event, etc.  They will not.  It is just that most players desire to find something or several events that they call their system, their discovery and their learned ‘win’ events.  And the sad part is, the real sad part—is all those events will lose more times than they actually allow the player wagering on them to win.

The reason being as I cited before, is that positive results—although fewer then the negative ones using the same event, gives the players such motivation and sense of accomplishment.  The desire to repeat those wins—the excitement—the happiness is huge.  But all those players do—is wind up depleting and giving back their win money and eventually, their buy-in’s and bank rolls. 

Be careful—Be smarter—Realize what will happen.  Not if---which just about all players are convinced will not happen, but when.  I see it every week.