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Topic: Dragon, Panda, and Other High Payout Bets - Welcome to the Desert of the Real  (Read 4225 times)

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Offline 21 Aces

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What if I told you that your high payout bet wins are financing your Bank/ Player bets.

Life is something you dominate if you're any good. - Tom Buchanan


Offline 21 Aces

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Re: Welcome to the Desert of the Real
« Reply #1 on: July 22, 2016, 12:42:49 AM »
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  • To clarify, it shouldn't be lost on most that high payout wins can be frequent and many on a shoe or it's a desert.  IDEALLY, one should be strong enough on Bank/ Player to make money that way alone, and those wins should finance your high payout bets.

    However, I see many players including myself leaning on high payout wins hard at times for max win on a session or as an accelerated bailout.  THAT SUCKS or does it?
    Life is something you dominate if you're any good. - Tom Buchanan

    Offline Wewin2222

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    Re: Welcome to the Desert of the Real
    « Reply #2 on: July 27, 2016, 06:13:31 AM »
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  • I like your style 21 Aces, you're very professional and your threads are always worth reading.

    Wewin2222

    Offline 21 Aces

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    Re: Welcome to the Desert of the Real
    « Reply #3 on: July 27, 2016, 04:58:54 PM »
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  • I like your style 21 Aces, you're very professional and your threads are always worth reading.

    Wewin2222

    Thanks. I'm tightening up my game, but it's all thanks to other players, dealers, floor managers, hosts, etc.  There has to be an expectation to make win.  So many key points still where I am making mistakes.
    Life is something you dominate if you're any good. - Tom Buchanan

    Offline Wewin2222

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    Re: Welcome to the Desert of the Real
    « Reply #4 on: July 27, 2016, 05:36:55 PM »
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  • Sometimes we make mistakes and other times we loose on good solid wagers that we think was a mistake because we didn't win. I have placed a solid wager on something I have seen win a thousand times and all of a sudden it will loose, was that a mistake or anomaly or something that deviates from that which would normally occur. We can never under estimate what the eye in the sky is trying to do...they are paid in some cases a King's ransom to take our money. This is there job and life and they take it very serious. They have the advantage with sitting the betting limits and also they have every resource at there finger tips. Usually Players will not share trade secreats or anything that makes them money, our resource's are limited, and in most cases we can only trust and depend on ourselves. You however are very smart to want to play with strong, and seasoned players!!

    Wewin2222

    Offline 21 Aces

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    Re: Welcome to the Desert of the Real
    « Reply #5 on: November 07, 2016, 05:12:44 AM »
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  • The latest adjustment which should have been more obvious to me is that you may want to adjust the size of your high payout bets based on your primary bet (Bank/ Player).

    I have found that I should be betting more on high payout bets related to Player (Panda bet) when I bet Bank - DUH.  The win and psychological impact of this are substantial because it's no fun to have a Panda win be mostly taken away by a sizable Bank bet. I seem to have enough Bank bias that most of these wins are occurring when I bet Bank...

    Do high payout bets mean a big win for you or closest you can get to insurance?


    Life is something you dominate if you're any good. - Tom Buchanan

    Offline 21 Aces

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    I see some players that play Dragon and Panda play both and some play Dragon only.  Maybe do either depending on the situation?  Maybe I am becoming too Bank biased, but I am scoring more Panda wins on Bank bets.  Also, often I wonder how much more upside there might be to betting on Dragon only. One could either save the amount they bet on Panda or apply some or all of it to Dragon.

    Example - Average Shoe Based on Odds (More or Less for The Dark Wizard)
    - 3 Panda Wins
    - 2 Dragon Wins
    - You bet the entire shoe of 80 hands with enough Bank/ Player win to pay for it,

    Betting both Panda and Dragon:
    - $10 Panda = $750 Total  - $800 Spent = -$50 Net P&L
    - $15 Dragon = $1,200 Total - $1,200 Spent = $0 Net P&L

    Betting Dragon only:
    - $0 on Panda = $0 Net P&L and don't feel to bad you missed 3 Pandas
    - $25 Dragon = $2,000 Total - $2,000 Spent = $0 Net P&L


    WTH??? - The clear point centers around the following:
    - It is very unlikely that you will play the entire shoe.
    - The shoe may be very rich or poor in high payout bet wins.
    - Your Bank/ Player bets are financing this as well as the bet size for that is far greater.
    - You can also skip hands, lean one side or the other, or lay into you high payout bet size.



    Example - Rich Shoe
    - 5 Panda Wins
    - 4 Dragon Wins
    - You bet the entire shoe of 80 hands with enough Bank/ Player win to pay for it,

    Betting both Panda and Dragon:
    - $10 Panda = $1,250 Total  - $800 Spent = $450 Net P&L
    - $15 Dragon = $2,400 Total - $1,200 Spent = $1,200 Net P&L

    Betting Dragon only:
    - $0 on Panda = $0 Net P&L and don't feel to bad you missed 3 Pandas
    - $25 Dragon = $4,000 Total - $2,000 Spent = $2,000 Net P&L




    The advantage of the Bank/ Player only players is they get to be a honey badger and not give a hit.  No pressure to play every hand.  If Panda or other high payout bets that still payout Bank/ Player hits, they still win on their associated Player bet.

    High Payout Bet players have to press and otherwise they might miss...
    Life is something you dominate if you're any good. - Tom Buchanan

    Offline AsymBacGuy

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    Good point.

    Funny fact is those bets are THE ONLY MATHEMATICALLY BEATABLE PROPOSITIONS the game provides.

    Moreover I wouldn't disregard the unintelligent "pair bonus" bet offered almost everywhere at the high stakes rooms.
    A simple stupid unintelligent tracking of many same value rank cards alone with an approximate study of the frequency of those hits might endorse some winning situations.

    Additionally it's a proven statistical fact that the side which got a decent amount of hits will be somewhat favorite to have more pair bonus situations than the counterpart.

    After all when we are losing deeply and we're wagering BP hands, we can only hope to win one hand at a time whereas such long term shots could get us a 11 to 1 payment.
    I mean that we only have to be right just one hand to get the same amount of 11 winning BP hands.

    Finally a relatively long shot bet could come out either in clusters or never at all.
    And to get clusters the essential condition is to get at least one hand apparition, better if a couple of hits had come out within a well lower frequency than what the probability dictates.

    Defeating the negative odds is a task we players must accomplish in some way.
    The new US President is an excellent example.

    as.

     

     

     
       

     

     




     



    Winners are simply willing to do what losers won't

    Offline 21 Aces

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    Desert of the Real - often very few, good amount, or a substantial amount.  One strategy is to not place any high payout bets until the first one hits or play only shoes that have a good number very early looking for the shoe to have that substantial amount.

    I have seen strong Bank shoes hit a lot of Panda though.
    Life is something you dominate if you're any good. - Tom Buchanan

    Offline AsymBacGuy

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    I have seen strong Bank shoes hit a lot of Panda though.

    Yep.

    A Panda bet is the second perfect point created by an occasional favourable third card where most of the times Banker side will stand, the action where it gets most of its advantage (or total ruin). Sometimes cards are distributed to unlikely favor the dominated side.

    For example:

    P having zero, Banker 3,4,5,6 and 7: third card is an 8. No draw

    P having 1, Banker 7: third card is a 7.  No draw

    P having a 2, Banker 7: third card is a 6.  No draw

    P having 3, Banker 6,7: third card is a 5. No draw

    P having 4, Banker 6 or 7: third card is a 4. No draw.

    P having 5, Banker 5, 6 or 7: third card is a 3. No draw.

    Panda bets are mostly hit whenever an 8 or a 3 are dealt to Player side.

    as.





       



           

     
    Winners are simply willing to do what losers won't

    Offline alrelax

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    might


    Finally a relatively long shot bet could come out either in clusters or never at all.



    as.
     


    Those 2 disclosures are key in many ways.  So many players do not understand those.  They get into the loss pretty quick and then attempt to chase, especially on the long shots.

    Again, might never come in a shoe or two or three or might come in clusters.  The other night at the casino, no Fortune 7's in a solid 7 shoes.  That property has no Panda so I don't know if Pandas came out.  Other shoes have 6 or 7 Fortunes at times. 

    Offline 21 Aces

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    1. What percentage of Bank/ Player bet do you see?

    2. What percentage of Bank/ Player bet is recommended?


    1. I see everything ranging from:
    - 100% high payout bet only.
    - 100% of Bank/ Player bet.
    - A small percentage of the Bank/ Player bet.
    - No high payout bet. 

    I even see the some players vary their bets under different conditions they perceive in this entire range whereas others stay consistent in the percentage applied.


    2. The best experience based percentage I would say ranges in between 10-25% of Bank/ Player bet.  For example, if a bet of $100 is made on Bank or Player then an additional $10-$25 may be allocated to high payout bets.  Out of all the players I have seen betting very big and complete a sustained winning session of size, they were between 10-15% and hitting those high payout wins consistently.


    Again, the sharper you are on bet selection for Bank/ Player then the less of a drag any reasonable high payout bet is when it doesn't hit because your base bet is winning enough to net win overall.
    Life is something you dominate if you're any good. - Tom Buchanan

    Offline alrelax

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    On Fortune 7's I am usually $25/$50 on a local level at on property that only has a $50 max on it.  No panda there.  At the other property they have a $1k limit on those bets.  I am anywhere from $25 to $150 on them.  In a neighboring state they have a $25 max on those, I am anywhere from $15 to the $25 on them and they do have Panda.

    I was playing with a guy that had $800 up on Fortune 7 and got a $32k payback when it did hit.  He normally never wagers it, maybe 1 or 2 times out of a few shoes. 

    In Vegas if they have it, I might wager a bit more on them. 

    I play entirely different in Vegas/AC or Florida then my local property on a weekly basis.  I never think of it as a percentage thou. 

    Offline 21 Aces

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    Continuing to score Panda wins with Bank bets so maybe I should increase the percent placed on high payout bets to put more on Panda.  Pandas aren't generally liked as much because they are 25 to 1 versus 40 to 1 on a 3 card 7, but they can definitely show out frequently.  It really becomes a question of closest you can get to a hedge or a decent win when thinking over opposite side high payout bet wins.
    Life is something you dominate if you're any good. - Tom Buchanan

    Offline alrelax

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    Absolutely they can.  And they do.  And it is a much higher completion rate than Fortune 7's.  Forget about the extra 15 units return, etc.