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Offline Andrea ForexMart

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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 4, 2016
« Reply #15 on: August 04, 2016, 06:50:16 am »
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  •    The EUR/USD is trading at a lower value inside yesterday’s range and during the mid-session, which hints at an impending volatility and an indecision among investors. The most recent data on private sector jobs from ADP, which is slated to come out at 12:15 GMT, is being anticipated by investors since the said report will show that there have been 170,000 jobs added by the US economy last July.

       The said pair might have a stronger value if the ADP data released will be below the expected estimate. However, if the data comes out higher than expected, then this will drive the EUR lower and increase the value of the US dollar. According to the daily swing chart, the general trend is a downward surge, and even though the EUR/USD pair has increased its trading value since July 25, this has not affected the current trend. The pair is also still trading within the post-Brexit range in spite of its high-pointing momentum levels.

       With the pair’s current pricing at 1.1197, the closest resistance point will be the Fibonacci level at 1.1229. A possible trigger for acceleration to the upside might happen if there will be an overtake of the weekly high at 1.1233 and the upward angle at 1.1286. This might also mean another point for a deeper rally at an angle of 1.1356. The EUR/USD will be in a bearish position if there will be a crossover to the weaker side of the angle, which is at 1.1146. This also means that there will be possible targets coming in a support cluster at 1.1092 to 1.1091.


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    NZD/USD Technical analysis: August 4 2016
    « Reply #16 on: August 04, 2016, 09:37:24 am »
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  • As stated in economic news reports, work compensation in New Zealand speculated for 1.8% but labor price index releases 1.6% compared to their assumption.

    The trades for kiwi remained under a negative situation and settled in bearish position yesterday. NZD/USD pair dropped to its lowest price at 0.7140. The resistance is deployed at 0.7250 with the support that appeared in the 0.7150 level.

    The MACD is plotted in the positive signal. The histogram narrowed down and reduced the strength of the buyer. RSI has been in the neutral territory. The oscillator gradually declined.

    Moving average cross-over is presented in the 4-hour chart which indicated the EMAs 50,100 and 200 in an upward direction.

    Analysts estimates that the market would shift to a bearish tone thus the seller's target comes in at 0.7050.


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    Fundamental Analysis for GBP/USD: August 5, 2016
    « Reply #17 on: August 05, 2016, 08:03:53 am »
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  •    The cable pair GBP/USD went down by 150 points after the good news brought about by the Bank of England. The BoE added stimulus by cutting its rates, which increased the sterling pound’s trading value at 1.3165. The Bank of England increased its asset purchases by 425 billion pounds and cut 0.25% from its lending rates. It has also announced its plans to follow in ECB’s footsteps by buying corporate bonds. Money markets were also completely priced in a quarter-point decrease to the main rates of the central bank, and investors and economists believe that there will soon be new measures which can cause the economy to surge after the UK’s decision to cut itself off from the European Union.

       On the other hand, the USD remained firm in spite of Thursday’s most recent low in six weeks, while the GBP remained in a tight range on top of renewed anticipation that the BoE will be cutting its interest rates for the first time since 2009 in an attempt to stave off a possible recession.

       The dollar index fell flat at 95.56 on top of a six-week low of 95.003 early this week. The most recent focus for the USD is the expected release of US jobs data on Friday. It is expected that this will cause the Federal Reserve to increase its interest rates on the latter part of the year. US futures interest rates are suggesting a 40% chance of the Fed increasing its interest rates this coming December.


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    EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 5, 2016
    « Reply #18 on: August 05, 2016, 08:42:55 am »
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  • Recently, the euro dropped on the second day of the line. The base currency indicated a sluggish position despite of the progressed made by the USD. The investors shifted their focus towards the US non-farm payrolls data that will be issued today, since the Eurozone Economic Bulletin did not submit any relevant reports.

    EUR/USD still spotted on the negative territory while the dollar is shown to trade in mixed trend yesterday and edged over euro. The resistance is placed at the 1.1200 level, the support is set at 1.1130.

    The momentum indicator, MACD appears a divergence and indicated a sell signal while the RSI is approaching a downward position since it departed outside the overvalued area.

    According to the indicator chart, the financial instrument returned to the 50-EMA and crossover the 100 and 200-EMA resulting to a neutral position.

    If a price break occurred and the support level is less than 1.1130, therefore a downturn will yield out from 1.1050 to 1.1000.


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    Fundamental Analysis for USD/CAD: August 8, 2016
    « Reply #19 on: August 08, 2016, 09:05:18 am »
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  •    The USD/CAD pair experienced an upsurge at 1.3175 after employment data in Canada disheartened investors, while US jobs data went up at an impressive rate. The week’s forecast for the greenback showed a continued surge for the currency pair. According to Statistic Canada’s labour force survey, the market lost a total of 31,200 in jobs last July, the biggest one-month drop in the last five years. Another report also showed Canada’s international trade deficit, which reached up to $3.6 billion last June.

       The said data caused the CAD to go even lower against the greenback, which caused a reversal of a short-term moderate strength. The Canadian economy was deprived of one of the most crucial support in the past years because of the stagnant consumer demand during the last two months. This is while the other sources of growth, like energy patch, business investment, and manufacturing continue its struggle.

       Analysts are suggesting that a dip in the Q2 GDP is likely to happen, mainly because of the losses incurred after the Alberta wildfires. Short-term interest differentials in the USD/CAD pair will remain in the USD’s favor due to a divergence in the general growth trends. The CAD also weakens during the latter part of the year, and seasonal considerations are being foreseen for the said pair.
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    Fundamental Analysis for AUD/USD: August 9, 2016
    « Reply #20 on: August 09, 2016, 09:13:53 am »
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  •    The AUD/USD pair traded lower after disappointments brought about by Chinese trade numbers. The AUD is currently trading at 0.7609, which is higher than its anticipated trading range. The currency did not seem to be affected by plummeting Chinese exports which created hopes for stimuli from the PBOC. The USD eased by a small amount this week after the release of jobs data. Traders are anticipating the rate decision of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand this week and a statement from the RBA head following this week’s rate decision release.

       The USD closed Friday’s session with nearly 0.5% in terms of gains while the US 10-year treasury yields went up by 10 basis points to hit 1.59%. The USD traded at 96.11 by Monday morning, putting pressure on the Australian dollar after coming close enough to a multi-month high just before the release of payroll reports.

       China’s total export value dipped by 6.25%, decreasing from $192.01 billion to $180.3 billion in a span of just one month. Exports during the first half of the year also went down by 2.1% every year. This significant decrease in Chinese export numbers show that a weak yuan won’t necessarily become an advantage on the part of exporters, particularly in the textile industry, whose export reports showed a decline at 3.7% during the first half of every year.

       The PBOC surprised financial markets after devaluing the yuan by decreasing its daily reference rate at 1.87% against the USD. It also bolstered its slow economy by front-lining its stimulus program, with banks allowing lending of up to billions of dollars to various business in order to maintain cash flow in the economy.


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    Fundamental Analysis for USD/JPY: August 10, 2016
    « Reply #21 on: August 10, 2016, 09:06:09 am »
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  •    The USD/JPY pair plummeted by 11 points, trading at 102.34 after the release of China’s inflation data proved to be better than its forecast. This helped the yen to rally since the Chinese economic situation might see some improvement. Investors are now awaiting more data from Japan, Bank of    Japan comments and government statement about stimulus programs. The JPY was initially sent higher by investors, however its fiscal stimulus failed to meet the high expectations set by the market. The USD, on the other hand, went up by a significant amount following a positive US labor market report, erasing most of JPY’s early-week gains.

    The Japanese economic stimulus remains as the main focus since BoJ will be releasing its Summary of Opinions from the monetary policy announcement last July 29. This particular BoJ statement has previously caused the JPY to surge since the new policy fell short of its previous expectations. The Bank of Japan is currently in a tight position as it has little room for more stimulus after its easing regulatory policies. However, BoJ predicts that it will be able to reach its headline inflation rate by 2017. However, only its officials believe in BoJ’s ability to reach its targets, since both businesses and consumers are in disagreement with BoJ’s prediction.


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    AUD/USD Technical Analysis: August 10, 2016
    « Reply #22 on: August 10, 2016, 10:39:59 am »
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  • The National Australia Bank indicated a downward direction in Business Conditions. Aside from it, the financial markets sustained under pressured condition just as when oil prices had a markdown.

    AUD/USD established a positive result on Tuesday since the movement of the financial instrument progressed upward near its upper limit. The resistance stands at 0.7700, the support can be seen at 0.7600.

    As expected, the MACD is situated in the positive zone. MACD histogram ascended and determined the strength in the buyers. The RSI arrived in the overbought condition.

    The price of the pair oscillates in the 1-hour chart with 50-EMA. Its 50,100 and 200 day EMAs remained to upsurge, therefore all EMAS are in a higher position.

    AUD/USD is expected to have a short-term recovery close to 50-EMA or 0.7600 level whereby the pair is overbought and the currency price is going to have a growth and increase in the investment price.


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    Fundamental Analysis for EUR/JPY: August 11, 2016
    « Reply #23 on: August 11, 2016, 06:29:55 am »
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  • The EUR/JPY pair went down further after Wednesday’s session, trading at 113.006, going down by 0.264 or -0.23%. The tight trading range remained as a result of the absence of major economic and political news from Japan and the eurozone. However, Japan’s Tertiary Industry Activity Index was released before the opening of Wednesday’s session and showed an increase by 0.8%, exceeding the initial report expectations which only predicted a 0.3% increase.

    Volatility and volume levels were particularly light during Wednesday, since the Japanese public holiday on Thursday will mean closed markets, with volumes expected to be below average. Some major market players will also be having an extended weekend, as most of them will be absent on Friday as well. The EUR/JPY is expected to weaken further due to disappointments caused by stimulus programs from BoJ and the Japanese government, and the ECB is not expected to release another statement until September 8.

    The overall trend prediction for EUR/JPY is a decrease in its rates, and is expected to continue, with a possible post-Brexit low of 109.519. An increase in selling pressure is also expected to manifest during the latter part of this year, especially once UK files Article 50 and formerly relieves its membership in the European Union.


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    USD/JPY Technical Analysis: August 11 2016
    « Reply #24 on: August 11, 2016, 09:42:35 am »
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  • Current updates about the increased in the funds rates of U.S Fed for this year seems uncertain for the market since the pair USD/JPY gained a lower position and its trading position swing lowers and reached a downtrend risk with 101.00 level of support.

    The resistance level of the pair is positioned at 101.40, the support can be seen at 100.40

    The momentum indicator MACD turn over the negative zone whereby identifies the seller's strength, RSI has been settled in the oversold position.

    Presented in the 4-hour chart, the USD/JPY is inclined to the 50-EMA but move away again from it though the 50-EMA sustained an overwhelming level of resistance placed in the region of 102.00. The pair intersects in the 50, 100 and 200 moving averages directed towards the lower level of the selected time frame.

    Since the pair is highly pressured, the recent price of the pair is expected to expand in the 102.00 economic region where the 50-EMA is spotted. The pair's price may also move back and forth at the level of 100.40.


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    USD/JPY Technical Analysis: August 12, 2016
    « Reply #25 on: August 12, 2016, 05:11:41 am »
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  •    The USD/JPY pair weakened further following the release of the Jobless Claims Report, with traders clamoring for a response from the Bank of Japan. Should the weak state of the pair continue, then the BoJ will have to release a statement sooner or later.

    Thursday’s session showed a remarkably low volatility in the market which only became active after the release of the US Jobless Claims Report. A positive US labor data strengthened the USD, causing traders to push prices upward. The instrument rallied at 101.40 and broke the level, with the resistance coming in at 102.50 and support levels at 101.40. The MACD is currently at the center level, and a histogram entry at the positive side will mean an increase in buyers’ strength. On the other hand,  sellers will regain its control of the market should the MACD go over the negative side. The RSI indicator is projected to increase after going over the oversold area.

    The 50 and 100 EMAs were broken by prices in the 1-hour chart, after which the EMA pairs further increased its strength. The 200-EMA now acts as a barrier for the USD/JPY pair, with the moving averages going down within the said time frame. The USD/JPY will possibly move to test the next bullish target at 102.00, along the area of the 200-day moving average.

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    NZD/USD Technical Analysis: August 12 2016
    « Reply #26 on: August 12, 2016, 09:52:14 am »
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  • Subsequent to the decision of the RBNZ to implement an interest cut rate of 0.25%, the New Zealand's currency increased on its one-month high. Upon arriving at its highest level, the NZD/USD have regressed towards a downward state. The mark price directed from 0.7335 to 0.7225. The resistance stands at 0.7250, the support can be seen at the level of 0.7150.

    As shown in the histogram, MACD sloped move towards a lower point and the pair signalled a seller's strength. Furthermore, the fluctuated in the overbought position.

    The price of the pair is heading to 50-EMA as indicated in the 1 hour chart . The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs ascended to the top.

    Analysts viewed the pair to be bearish and remained to be under-pressure. Trader's stop is situated at the 0.7150 region.


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    Fundamental Analysis for AUD/USD: August 15, 2016
    « Reply #27 on: August 15, 2016, 10:20:25 am »
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  •    The AUD/USD pair ended last week’s session below its recent high of 0.77, trading at 0.7646. However, the pair remains strong as it enters into a new trading week after traders adjust to Friday’s sudden decrease, although China will be weighing in on the markets following a possible stimulus from PBOC. On the other hand, the RBA reduced its rates by 25 bps and the RBNZ followed suit, applying a 25 bps reduction rate as well.

       Prior to this particular move of New Zealand and Australian  central banks, RBA’s Glenn Stevens previously denied that cutbacks on interest rates can help in improving the Australian economy. Stevens also added that Australia’s economic slowdown is only natural, given its constant growth during the past few years. He also noted that Australian households will take a while before they can start spending again since a significant amount of domestic debt has put households in tighter positions.

    The RBA representative also added that Australia’s lack of a demographic dividend has contributed to the slowing down of the GDP growth. The demographic dividend is the slow growth of the overall working population as compared to the general population growth, a problem which is also being dealt with by Japan. However, Steven’s speech did not have any impact on the AUD, which is up by 0.4% against the US dollar after the USD decreased its value following the release of the US productivity data since traders have already speculated that the Federal Reserve would not have an increase in its rates.


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    Fundamental Analysis for NZD/USD: August 16, 2016
    « Reply #28 on: August 16, 2016, 07:16:24 am »
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  • The NZD/USD pair weakened its stance and traded down at 0.7177, although this is still a relatively strong value compared to its counterparts. Investors are taking into consideration China’s mixed signals and the lack of stimulus from the People’s Bank of China. The RBA and RBNZ statements on its rate decisions are making investors and traders uneasy. The retail sales volume rose by 2.3% last June, which is the biggest increase in the last nine years. This is in comparison with a 1% increase last year.

       According to Statistics New Zealand, the increase was mainly caused by surges in vehicle sales, personal and pharmaceutical products, and more people spending on eating and drinking out. The retail sales’ total value rose from 2.2% last quarter to almost $20 billion. According to Westpac economist Satish Ranchhod, consumers are benefiting from low inflation and interest rates, which are putting money back in domestic pockets. A strengthened tourist season and strong migration rates are also helping in the surge in spending figures.

       Zespri has also stated that it has already improved its pre-export checking procedures, which has already been approved by the MPI, who is currently advising China with regards to kiwifruit exports. Kiwifruit sales has also exceeded last year’s total volume sales, with another 7 million kiwifruit trays in line for export this coming season.


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    Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: August 17, 2016
    « Reply #29 on: August 17, 2016, 10:37:24 am »
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  •    The AUD/USD pair closed down Tuesday’s session on a slightly higher level, after the trading range widened following traders’ reactions to several financial events. The AUD was previously subject to pressure after a statement from RBA can possibly mean that the Reserve Bank of Australia might be considering another interest rate cut. However, the USD went down following dovish comments from Fed, increasing the overall value of the Aussie.

       Investors are now awaiting the release of the Wage Price Index, and economists are expecting the quarterly report to be at 0.5%. However, union members are expecting a weaker range for the Wage Price Index, which can lead to volatility after its release. The Fed will also be releasing its July meeting minutes and traders will be anticipating the next scheduled rate cut.

       The daily swing chart is showing a generally upward trend, although momentum has a possibility of going downward. Based on the pair’s current pricing at .7690, the AUD/USD pair’s direction will likely be determined by the reaction of traders to the .7695 short-term pivot. An increase in selling pressure is possible should there be a downward bias on a sustained move under .7635, while an upward bias will develop if there is a sustained move over .7755.


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