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Topic: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart  (Read 17091 times)

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Offline Andrea ForexMart

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Fundamental Analysis for EUR/JPY: August 18, 2016
« Reply #30 on: August 18, 2016, 09:08:09 am »
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  •    The EUR/JPY pair continued its tight range-trading during Wednesday’s session after trading at 113.195, since traders are now focusing on the minutes from the US Federal Reserve Bank’s July meeting.

       The lack of significant economic news from both Japan and the eurozone has led to decreased volatility and volume levels, with the currency pair now range-bound after reaching its lowest level in a month last August 5 at 112.308. However, this unnatural chart pattern might lead to excessive volatility levels, and investors should brace themselves for possibly unexpected economic news.

    The ECB is not expected to release a statement until September 8 and the BoJ has apparently run out of economic stimuli, so traders must expect a dull period for the EUR/JPY pair until economic stimuli drives the pair back in activity.

       On Thursday, investors are expected to react to several Japanese reports, including the Adjust Trade Balance, where it is expected to be released at 0.14 trillion yen. Japanese exports are expected to decrease by up to 14.0%. Meanwhile, July’s trade balance is expected to fall from 693 billion yen to 284 billion yen.


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    Offline Andrea ForexMart

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    USD/JPY Technical Analysis: August 18 2016
    « Reply #31 on: August 18, 2016, 10:28:22 am »
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  • During the Asian trades session, the pair had restored its position to JPY 100.77 and stops at the 101.14 area which sets off the USD/JPY pair to lead with a rate of 100.74. Furthermore, the rate of the USD increased with the aid of the NY Fed President Dudley whilst the yen became weak due to its prime minister who allowed the intervention of the financial regulators whenever the levels of the rate remained indecorous.

    The pair is anticipated to trade over the level of 100.77 and the range of the limit is JPY 99.90-JPY 101.67 and descends perfectly.


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    Fundamental Analysis for USD/CAD: August 19, 2016
    « Reply #32 on: August 19, 2016, 07:00:47 am »
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  •    The USD/CAD pair went down by 26 points as the USD further decreased its value, with both gold and oil experiencing an upsurge. The said pair is currently trading at 1.2819, with the CAD continuing its present positive value. The CAD temporarily went over the 78-cent level of the USD as the greenback fell in relation to a lot of currencies as oil prices continued to rise.

       One of the reasons for the CAD’s recent gains is the sudden upsurge in oil futures, with per barrel amounting to more than $47. Another reason for the currency’s gain is the weakening of the US dollar after calls for the Federal Reserve to take extra caution when it comes to increasing its interest rates. The CAD has been steadily increasing its value during the last 7 trading sessions before the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee yesterday, which led to a decrease after the release of the meeting’s statement.

       Investors are now expecting the release of the Canadian Consumer Price Index monthly report for its yearly and monthly data. Yearly data is expected to fall at 1.3% from last month’s 1.5%, while the monthly data is also expected to go down by -0.1% from last month’s 0.2%. Should the actual data fail to match the expected data release, then traders can expect volatility in prices as the market will try to adapt to the released financial information.


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    Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
    « Reply #33 on: August 19, 2016, 08:33:08 am »
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  • EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 19, 2016

    As presented over the 4-hour chart, the euro and dollar reached an indecision level since the US Dollar further weakened. The time frame of the currency pair maintained a higher point of movement thus heading on an accelerated trend lines.

    The increase of EURUSD is pulled by the resistance level of euro whereby set at 1.1320, the support comes between the Eur 1.1207-Eur 1.1230.

    The pair is predicted for probable decrease in distinction to EUR 1.1320. The procurement of a long investment position is suited on settling against the said level.


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    Fundamental Analysis for NZD/USD: August 22, 2016
    « Reply #34 on: August 22, 2016, 10:10:17 am »
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  •    The NZD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.7264 points after gaining a 1% increase during the week due to an upsurge in dairy prices and a generally positive data flow. The positive data for dairy prices was due to an increase in the global dairy auction, with the average pricing going up from 12.7% to $2731 per tonne, with a 6.6% increase during the auction.

       Speculators in the market had predicted a 25-point basis cut as central banks are pushing for inflation rates to go back at the 1-3% rate in order to counter high currencies. The governor of the Reserve Bank has also stated that they are willing to further cut down on interest rates since there is a renewed pressure on the NZD as international conditions are continuing to weaken and interest rates remain low. He also stated that the Reserve Bank is currently having difficulties to meet its target inflation rate since the exchange rate must decline first in order to make way for added inflation.

       The financial market could also become undermined if the surges in the housing market continue, while the domestic economy remains on the positive side due to an added strength in its tourism and migration data, as well as low interest rates. Commodity prices also increased by at least 2%, its highest index since October 2015.


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    AUD/USD Technical Analysis: August 22, 2016
    « Reply #35 on: August 22, 2016, 10:35:30 am »
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  • The AUD/USD is trading flat while the Aussie dollar bounced off the 3-month trend line support. The USD appeared to be bearish with an evening star candlestick pattern against the AUD which ventured a downside risk.

    Price during the month of May tested the rising peak of the support while limiting the downside risk. The support is seen at 0.75787 which measured the July 27 result of 0.7421 low. Preferably, a change occurred over the prevailing trend on August 11 at 0.7756 high and makes it easier to oppose the August 11 result at 0.7760 top.


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    Fundamental Analysis for EUR/USD: August 24, 2016
    « Reply #36 on: August 24, 2016, 07:54:40 am »
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  •    The EUR/USD pair had little response to the positive composite PMI data, with the EUR trading up to 25 points before the data release and remained at 1.1345 near its highest range point as the USD continued to weaken. Manufacturing PMI data went below its expected range but went above the 50-divider line.

       The economic status of the eurozone maintained its status in August, with its growth showing that it is unlikely to be cut back as a result of a possible fallout following the Brexit referendum. The composite PMI for the eurozone rose in July, from 53.2 to 53.3 points, going above the 50 level which separates expansion from contraction and is the best reading for the region in seven months. IHS Markit has stated that the eurozone’s economy remains on the steady side, with an estimated 0.3% GDP for this quarter, similar to the first half average of 2015.

       Speculators are now awaiting the Federal Reserve’s chairwoman Janet Yellen’s statement at the Jackson Hole Symposium this coming Friday. Investors will be monitoring this symposium as this has been the platform used by the Fed to warn of either a tightening or a loosening of monetary policy.


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    Fundamental Analysis for USD/CAD: August 25, 2016
    « Reply #37 on: August 25, 2016, 09:20:47 am »
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  • The USD/CAD pair went higher during Wednesday’s session, trading at 1.2942 after increasing by 0.0031 or +0.24%. This increase in the pair was due to speculations that Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen will be delivering a possibly hawkish statement on Friday’s Jackson Hole Wyoming central bankers’ symposium. The CAD also weakened after a sudden build caused crude oil prices to go lower than 1.50%. This sharp sell-off occurred after an unexpected stockpile increase as stated by the US Energy Information Administration, causing renewed concerns about the surplus in international supply.

    The government of Alberta, Canada raised its 2016-17 budget deficit forecast to C$10.9 billion last Tuesday, after the disastrous wildfire that ripped through the region caused damages in Fort McMurray’s oil sands hub.

    If the USD continues to strengthen against the CAD and crude oil prices further decrease, then the daily pattern chart shows an upside shift in momentum. However, crude oil prices can also experience a sudden surge especially if Janet Yellen’s statement on Friday turns out to be dovish, or both OPEC and non-OPEC countries opt for a production freeze. Large payoffs are expected, however, if crude levels go lower than this month’s levels and if the Fed’s statement signals at least one rate hike before the year comes to a close.


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    EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 25 2016
    « Reply #38 on: August 25, 2016, 11:13:00 am »
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  • The currency pair EUR/USD remained squeezed early yesterday and decreased during the closing of the trading session at 1.1275 or -0.27% whereas investors are focused more about the symposium participants held in the place of Jackson Hole, Wyoming along with the upcoming speech from the Chair of the Fed, Janet Yellen with regards on the possibility of a hawkish movements for the percentage rates on USD.

    As the New York Fed chair, William Dudley declared that there is probably a rate hike in September, the euro is said to be affected upon the 25-basis point rate or 18%. Presuming the approval of Yellen for the increase in September would indicate a bearish pattern for the EUR/USD.


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    Fundamental Analysis for USD/JPY: August 26, 2016
    « Reply #39 on: August 26, 2016, 12:16:09 pm »
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  •    The USD/JPY pair remained within its range while the markets are awaiting Janet Yellen’s speech within today. Aside from the Fed’s statement release, investors are also anticipating the release of Japan’s inflation data, which is expected to cause volatility in the yen’s current value. The BoJ might not be able to extend additional support to either the Japanese economy or to assist inflation rates while employers refuse to have a wage increase, causing stagnation in the country’s economic cycle. The IMF has also recently noticed that Abenomics was not able to use its three-arrow plan in order to boost the economic status in Asia.

       The index of Nikkei 225 increased by 10% since June and the JPY has also increased in relation to the USD. This might become a problem for stocks since a strengthening yen would not attract exporters as it can decrease their foreign profits especially when converted to their local currencies. Investors are also worried that the Bank of Japan might dominate financial markets after the BoJ doubled its purchases of Tokyo-based shares, which can cause distortions in prices. This will also make it harder for investors to separate functional companies from non-functional ones, and can also cause misallocation of capital and can reduce incentives which are needed by companies to attain shareholder needs.

       The Bank of Japan has previously attempted to revitalize the Japanese economy and put a stop to years of deflation by way of purchasing large amounts of assets, thereby flooding the economy with cash. This has mostly included corporate bonds, JGBs, and ETFs.


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    AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis: August 26 2016
    « Reply #40 on: August 26, 2016, 12:48:25 pm »
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  • The Aussie and the US dollar hover to the range bound periods raised with 11 points at 0.7624. The quantitative measures indicated a low level but will experience a slight effect because of the grand news of Yellen on her Jackson Hole speech. The Australia and New Zealand Banking Group reported that AUD strengthened which influence the economic growth while exports from the region like coal and iron ore are consistent to have the largest volume of supply among countries all over the world.

    Subsequent to the unsatisfactory rate of the AUD yesterday due to a lower-than-expected results of the infrastructures, Australian dollar still gained positively.

    Australian reports have noted the statement from one of the largest government owned company of the continent, QIC Global Liquid Strategies with the head of the pension managers, Ms. Katrina King said that at US 77 cents, AUD is seen to be overvalued by 10% evaluated by the RBA's newly-developed in-house economic modeling.

    While Mr. Roy Teo, an analyst from said that the ABN Amro Bank NV ended their recommendations during the closing of the third quarter since they perceived that the AUD will be bearish with a target price of 72 cents. Reports from Bloomberg issued a forecast from the RBA about the ease of movement on November and expecting the AUD to finished with 74 cents on year end.
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    Fundamental Analysis for GBP/USD: August 30, 2016
    « Reply #41 on: August 30, 2016, 10:24:11 am »
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  •    The GBP/USD pair decreased by 38 points as the dollar continued to surge after the statement release by the Federal Reserve last Friday. The GBP rallied by 0.5%, hitting its highest in three weeks at 1.3264 following Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s speech at Wyoming. The GBP decreased but is still above $1.31. Prior to the Fed statement, the GBP has been experiencing an increase after data from the Office for National Statistics showed that the UK had a 0.6% economic growth for the second quarter.

       Investors are expecting low volatility for the UK market, as the market is closed on Monday due to the Summer Bank holiday. The August survey for UK’s construction and manufacturing data are expected to recover slightly after a massive downgrade in July, which can reduce the possibility of the country going into a recession next year. Investors and speculators are also confident that the UK economy will be revitalized after the Brexit referendum.

       The UK will also be releasing its plans this week regarding its objective to retain its single market access on a per sector basis.


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    USD/JPY Technical Analysis: August 30 2016
    « Reply #42 on: August 30, 2016, 11:02:11 am »
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  • The USD accrued by making a 2-week high in spite of the reports concerning the increment in price introduced by the Fed to be imposed for the next month. Furthermore, the yen resumed to subsidize the dollar.

    When the pair heightened its rate on Monday, it secured a concrete resistance level at 102.50 but did not permitted any price gains. The current resistance of the doolar and yen is 102.50, the level of support identified at 101.40.

    MACD presented a positive movement, the histogram denoted the buyer's’ strength and the RSI is seen in overbought area.

    USD/JPY moves through the 4-hour chart and broke 200-EMA and ascended the moving averages of 50, 100 and 200. The trading pair seems bullish after the growth of its resistance level of 102.50.


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    Fundamental Analysis for AUD/USD: August 31, 2016
    « Reply #43 on: August 31, 2016, 09:38:30 am »
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  •    The AUD/USD pair went up by a few trading points but had limited gains as the US Dollar continued to increase its value. The release of the housing data yesterday caused building permits to go above as expected. In July 2016, the volume of approved houses went up by 0.2%,  necclinching an eight-month steady increase, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

       In the area of New South Wales and Victoria, the total number of approved houses surged in July by up to 2.4% but has seen a drop in the area of Queensland, Tasmania, and Australian Capital Territory. The AUD is presently trading at 0.7571, a drop from its previous weekly high. Meanwhile the USD is steadily increasing after the Fed statement in Wyoming.

       After the non-farm payrolls data were released last Friday, the USD index rallied as the market adjusts into a steady holding pattern.


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    GBP/USD Technical Analysis: August 31, 2016
    « Reply #44 on: August 31, 2016, 10:36:45 am »
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  • Subsequent to the weak data introduced on Thursday is the debilitation of the sterling whilst the dollar stay behind its strong position even when the Fed announced the imminent raise for the rates intended this current year.

    The pair drawn against its weekly low throughout the trades done on Thursday but the British pound demonstrated a positive gains. GBP/USD resistance is positioned in the 1.3200 level, its support moves in the 1.3100 level.

    The two main indicators had a negative feedback. The MACD signaled strength for the sellers, at the same time the RSI shifted in the oversold area. The pair price recurred under the 50-EMA in the 4-hour chart. It is speculated that GBP/USD will have a downtrend when the level of support falls into 1.3050.


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