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Topic: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart  (Read 17092 times)

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Offline Andrea ForexMart

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Fundamental Analysis for EUR/GBP: September 15, 2016
« Reply #60 on: September 15, 2016, 06:48:23 am »
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  •    The EUR weakened while the GBP further increased, causing the EUR/GBP pair to trade at 8.499 points, going down at .0003 or -0.035%. The pair movement has caused a technical reversal top, which signals that investor sentiments are about to drop. Eurostat has also reported on Wednesdayís economic news that the industrial production data decreased by 1.1% in June, with a 0.8% increase in May.

       On the other hand, the UK employment data is showing a resiliency in the UK jobs market, even after the Brexit vote. The Office of National Statistics has reported an increase in employment rates, going up by 174,000 to 31.77 million in just three months since July. These employment rates are the highest in 40 years, with the increase in the number going above the expected range by economists. The unemployment rates also remained at a stagnant range of 4.9% in July. Meanwhile, the number of people claiming unemployment benefits went up by 2,400 to 771,000 last August.

       However, wage growth data also experienced a gradual slowdown, causing economists and speculators to have unsteady opinions with the set of data released. However, this strengthening of British employment and jobs data may cause the Bank of England to pay less attention to interest rates and maintain its current stimulus once the bank announces it decisions regarding monetary policies on Thursday.



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    NZD/USD Technical Analysis: September 15, 2016
    « Reply #61 on: September 15, 2016, 08:07:03 am »
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  • There is an ease of movement of the New Zealand currency although the country indicated a weaker-than-expected result of its economy's health.

    The price of the pair is 0.7250 and able to trade with a higher price on Wednesday. The trendline continued to move in an upward direction even before a decline already occurred. The kiwi arrived at a lower position as indicated in the 4 hour chart because it is also currently dealing with a bullish tone 200-EMA.

    The price is moving between the 100 and 200 EMAs according to the timeframe analysis. While the 50 and 100 EMAs recorded a lower ratio. The resistance is established at 0.7320, support stands in the level of 0.7250. MACD experienced a downturn which means that sellers have strengthened. RSI merges on the oversold condition. The kiwi and dollar is anticipated to present a negative tone in the market.
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    Fundamental Analysis for USD/JPY: September 16, 2016
    « Reply #62 on: September 16, 2016, 02:40:17 am »
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  •    The USD/JPY pair dropped 14 points to trade at 102.29 points, well within its recent trading range of between 101.90 and 102.50. The strength of the USD was offset by an impending meeting of the Bank of Japan next week, as well as a renewed demand for the safe haven currency. According to the Wall Street Journal, the Japanese subzero-rates policy had a significant impact in putting downward pressure on interest rates.

       There are also signs that the BoJ will be attempting to sharpen its yield curve by increasing long-term rates and suppressing short-term rates. The Bank of Japan has already purchased more short-term government bonds, shifted its bonds and is currently buying lesser bonds. The percentage of long-term bonds went up by half of a percentage since July. However, in spite of the steepening of the Japanese yield curve, the difference between 10-year bonds and 2-year bonds is still half of its value before the effect of negative rates.

       Japanese government bonds had their worst selloff in 20 years, especially since the BoJ will be planning to implement adjustments on the maturity range, causing yields to rise on longer-duration bonds.

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    USD/CAD Technical Analysis: September 16 2016
    « Reply #63 on: September 16, 2016, 08:22:34 am »
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  • Due to recent decrease in the oil prices the currency of Canada exhibited a weaker performance in comparison to the US dollar, risk aversion also eventuate though endowed on a limited level only. The pair signaled an upward trend near its upper field.

    USDCAD undergone a short assessment and made a weekly high close to 1.3200 then bend over below the testing process. It can be observe that sellers are aiming for the 1.3200 level.
    Moving averages are lowered down the price of the pair. As indicated in the hourly chart, the 50-EMA ascends and crosses the 100 and 200 EMAs. Resistance of the pair is at 1.3200, support entered the point of 1.3100.

    The histogram established buyer's strength and stay on the positive area. RSI is place on the overbought region.


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    GBP/USD Technical Analysis: September 19 2016
    « Reply #64 on: September 19, 2016, 09:10:09 am »
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  • The issue about the next cut rate of the BoE resulted the pound to hover within the pressured area. According to BoE, the cut rate will aid the improvement of the country's economy.

    The sterling and dollar recorded a negative balance on Friday. Bearish investors were able to steer the market. GPB/USD had lose its winning track and crossed the 1.3200 level and hit the level of 1.3100 during the closed out trade. The pair as presented in the 4-hour lies below the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs. The overall direction moving averages 50, 100 and 200 are descending.

    The resistance of the pair is 1.3100,the support is identified at 1.3000. MACD indicated a negative downtrend and remained at its current level which affirmed the seller's strength. RSI represented an oversold condition.
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    Fundamental Analysis for USD/JPY: September 20, 2016
    « Reply #65 on: September 20, 2016, 09:45:54 am »
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  •    The USD/JPY traded at 101.866, dropping by 0.390 points or -0.38% as traders and investors are preparing for the announcements of the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan regarding their respective monetary policies on Wednesday.

       Although the Federal Reserveís announcement on its interest rate policies will be announced in the same period as that of BoJís announcement, analysts are speculating that the BoJís announcement on its monetary policies will have a greater impact on the marketís volatility and movement than that of the Fedís announcement. However, this announcement might give cues regarding an imminent interest rate hike in December, which can strengthen the USD and cause the JPY to lose some of its value.

       The Bank of Japan is also expected to discuss an extensive review of its monetary policy framework, which includes a combination of its asset-buying program with its negative interest rates.

       Speculators are having difficulties with regards to predicting the BoJís movement. Some speculators are saying that the Japanese central bank will be changing its mechanism in exchange of a policy which will be combining an increased stimulus while giving protection to banks which are struggling with dealing with the negative effects of interest rates on their respective deposits.


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    Fundamental Analysis for USD/JPY: September 21, 2016
    « Reply #66 on: September 21, 2016, 09:37:39 am »
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  •    The USD/JPY pair went down by 0.169 0r -0.17% to trade at 101.744 points. The US dollar is currently in a tight trading range against the JPY during the last trading session as various market players are waiting for the Bank of Japanís announcement regarding its monetary policies, as well as the Federal Reserveís announcement on Tuesday.

       The USD/JPY slightly weakened after the release of the US housing data, which turned out to be a disappointment for traders and investors. The housing data came out at a yearly rate of 1.14 million units last August, going way below the expected range of 1.19 million units. Construction permits also dropped by 0.4% to go down at 1.14 million units in August.

       Speculators are saying that the Bank of Japan would have to implement programs with significant monetary policy easing and interest rate cuts in order to further weaken the JPY in the long-term frame. The Federal Reserve must also release a hawkish statement which can indicate a possible rate hike in December. The USD/JPY is also expected to appreciate especially if the BoJ releases a more aggressive monetary strategy combined with an expected 12% interest rate raise by the Fed prior to the central bankís announcement. However, if the Fed remains cautious on its policies and refuses to raise its rates, then the USD might weaken and the BoJ would be unable to decrease the value of the Japanese currency.



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    USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis - September 21, 2016
    « Reply #67 on: September 21, 2016, 09:59:23 am »
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  • Yesterday, Governor Poloz of the Bank of Canada discussed about the need of the monetary stimulus for the country in order to bolster its economy, however the US and Canadian dollar seems impassive as it performed a steady-going movement.

    As it was stated in the yesterday's forecast, the USDCAD traded within a high range near the 200 SMA and possibly to become a firm resistance for the pair and the forecast were already proven right. Buyers attempted to drove the price beyond the resistance level which resulted a fall back to its previous range.

    The 200 SMA breaks through the 1.3253, the high is positioned around the 1.3242. Due to a sharp decline of the high, the price settled down at 1.3176 and further changes down to 1.3100 is still anticipated. Moreover, the FOMC announcement will determine if the pair could make an increase within the level of 1.2850.

    The USD and CAD appeared to be bearish within a short and medium term. There is also a prediction regarding the oil prices consolidation subsequent to the recession happened few months ago. Part of the forecast is the continuous ranging of the pair between 400-500 daily pip range.


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    GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 22 2016
    « Reply #68 on: September 22, 2016, 05:50:20 am »
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  • The activity of GBPUSD yesterday resulted the pair to be considered as volatile currency pair in the market.The pound and dollar trades in a tight range with a firm support set in the level of 1.2950. The resistance level maintained 1.3000 even after the Fed announcement regarding the retain the price of current rates, however, they did not issued a specific date for the rate hike.

    The vague announcement from Fed rendered an uncertain state of volatility and subsequent to this statement, other pair related to USD have been affected also. The concerned pairs concluded a moderate upward trend followed by the GBPUSD as well.

    The USD established a weak position because the market were a little disappointed since Fed did not presented anything hawkish. The pair fluctuated with a resistance level of 1.300 but the movement continued on an advanced level of 1.3035.
    In view of the instability of the USD that is expected to prevail until the succeeding session but with a conforming and secure target ranges from 1.3140 to 1.3170.


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    EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 22, 2016
    « Reply #69 on: September 22, 2016, 06:17:29 am »
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  •    The much-awaited monetary policy announcements from the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve turned out to be a big disappointment for investors and traders, particularly to dollar bulls, since both central banks have decided to maintain their present policies and make no changes. The US Federal Reserve did not make any changes in its interest rates. However, there is a possibility that a rate hike could happen within the year due to three dissenters at this point compared to only one dissenter during the last policy announcement. Fed chair Janet Yellen has also stated that the possibility of a rate hike has already strengthened.

       The Bank of Japan has created measures to take control of its yield curve, such as maintaining its rates at -0.1% in an attempt to protect banks. However, the BoJ has also introduced a 10-year interest rate target. Policy makers are now anticipating one last rate hike for 2016 and possibly two more hikes for 2017. The median growth protection for 2016 was cut back from 2% to 1.8%, indicating a decrease in its long-term forecast. Inflation rates are expected to go down to 1.3% during the last quarter from the previous forecast of 1.4%.

       The EUR/USD pair went up to 1.1196 points before going down slightly prior to the announcement of the central banks, with the USD losing some of its present value. The EUR/USD also maintained its neutral-bearish stance in the 4-hour chart after certain technical indicators went over the neutral side. Prices were also unable to go over the 100 and 200 SMAs. However, the currency pair is expected to strengthen this Thursday due to the upward movement of the USD, with trading points expected to go up to 1.1200.


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    EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 23 2016
    « Reply #70 on: September 23, 2016, 08:49:32 am »
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  • The EUR/USD persist an upward grind movement since the trading day yesterday. The said activity started subsequent to the FOMC's announcement.

    Bearish investors tried to pass through the support level of 1.1145 but failed to accomplish their plan. When the announcement were already made, bullish investors are able to manage the price actions that moved in an ascending manner. They are capable to broke the yesterday's forecast with a level of 1.1250.

    The European market look forward for the announcement of the ECB president, Mr. Mario Draghi regarding the Euro economy. This is why the economy had experienced a price delay in selling. Consequent to the major announcements made by the BoJ, Fed and other central banks, Draghi did not disclose any special information because he does not want to aggravate them.

    After the grind and FOMC statement, the USD moderately increased and started to acquire strength together with the its related pairs. This development negatively affected the Euro and demonstrated a decreasing grind that last in one night.

    The grind of EUR gained a support towards 1.1200. In case that the dollar stick on its actions, the EURUSD has the tendency to draw back a main support in the 1.1200 level.
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    Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: September 23, 2016
    « Reply #71 on: September 23, 2016, 09:49:23 am »
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  •    The cable pair GBP/USD bounced back to trade at 1.3013 after dropping to its 1-month low at 1.2946 during Wednesdayís trading session. The cable pair then went down slightly at 1.2954 before finally rallying at 1.3046 after the Federal Reserve chose to maintain its previous interest rates.

       The GBP/USDís rally from Julyís new low in 31 years at 1.2798 from its previous value of 1.3481 indicates that the downward trend is a  mere temporary low. Meanwhile, the consecutive value swings suggest a possible triangle unfolding with a-leg terminus at 1.3481, a b-leg trough at 1.2865, and Septemberís highest increase at 1.3445 points pinpoints the c-leg terminus while the d-leg would go over 1.2865 points, inducing a final rebound at the e-leg before the downward trend reappears.

       The rebound of the cable pair during the last trading session from its monthly low at 1.2946 indicates that the dropping trend will only be temporary since this particular drop was accompanied by bullish convergences on the 1-hour indicators and will likely gain further to trade at 1.3137 points next week, going over 1.3092 points.


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    Fundamental Analysis USD/JPY: September 26, 2016
    « Reply #72 on: September 26, 2016, 04:58:17 am »
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  •    Investors in the Japanese yen were disappointed with the Bank of Japanís plans to reexamine its monetary policies. The reaction to the central bankís announcement caused an initial double-sided volatility. Investors have since decided that this particular decision will have no bearing on the economy and on the Japanese currency.

       The BoJís announcement caused the JPY to increase significantly on September 21, but the USD had already started bouncing back by September 23. The USD/JPY closed Fridayís trading session at 100.971 points, going up by 0.211 points or +0.21%. The pair however still closed the week lower by 1.26%.

       The USD/JPY pair was also further weakened by the Fedís interest rate and monetary policy statement, which turned out to be less hawkish than expected. The Federal Reserve did not increase its interest rates this month, but there is still a possibility of an interest rate hike in December.

       The USD experienced a downward pressure.due to the Fedís lowered expectations and the decreased possibility of future rate hikes, which can lead to a lowered appreciation of the USD since the central bankís decision indicates a slow-moving US economy.

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    EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 26, 2016
    « Reply #73 on: September 26, 2016, 08:09:22 am »
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  •    The EUR/USD went up higher during Fridayís trading session as the USD further weakened after the Fedís decision to maintain its current interest rates. The Markit PMI also went out lower than expected after it took the bulk of the earlier increases in the USD. Resistance levels are currently on the downward side after coming out within the 1.1290 range. Support levels are currently near the 10-day moving average at 1.1206 points.

       US Markit PMI data dropped by 0.6 points to go out at 51.4 points for September following a 0.9 point drop to 52.0 points in August. Index is now ranging from 50.7-52.9 for 2016, with Septemberís levels going at 53.1 points. New index data showed a decrease to 51.0 points from last Augustís 52.7 points, its lowest level since December 2015. Manufacturing data also went out lower than expected as compared to similar technical readings of composite EU data.


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    Technical Analysis for USD/CAD: September 26, 2016
    « Reply #74 on: September 26, 2016, 08:48:50 am »
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  •    The USD/CAD pair went down slightly last week, plummeting at 1.30 points. The currency pair then bounced back from the support barrier, and if the pair goes above the hammer formed then this would mean a very bullish sign for the USD/CAD, and the market would be able to go over the 1.35 trading range.

       The oil market is wielding its influence over the financial market, especially since the CAD has become a proxy currency for commodity traders. However, the oil market in general does not look very promising, and speculators are stating that it is only a matter of time before oil prices would take a turn for the worst. This might cause the USD to increase in relation to the CAD in the long-run.

       The market is generally expected to go above the 1.35-point level. However, investors are not expected this to occur anytime soon. Pullback levels might be able to offer some measure of projected value and support, given that the market stays above the 1.30 trading range. Buyers are expected to always return to the commodities market, and an upward pressure for the currency market is now felt especially for the possible breakout which could happen at any point now that the volume has returned to the foreign exchange market.



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