A maxim amongst share and currency day traders is that "the trend is your friend."

This is indeed a valid point given that emotions of Greed and Fear underpin market movements. Each strives for dominance every second the market is open.

But ball movements are not driven by Fear and Greed. They are driven by Mr Random.

And yet, as Gizmotron has clearly demonstrated, those movements will form discernable and trackable trends (uninfluenced by Fear and Greed) and that are just as friendly to exploitation.

Yet how can this be?  What is it that underpins trends in this instance?  What is the X-Factor at work?

To get to where I am with it you must allow for expansion of the axiom. You must come to grips that there is another fact of life, that the trend can also be your enemy.

In my basic teachings, and I've shared this openly for many years, you will find out that using the trends for bet selection, that it will work very well, it will work flatly, (without much movement, plus or minus,) or it will work very badly. These are the three states of using trends. You must play with an awareness of these three states.

Sure, play as if the trend is your friend, but be aware that the trend can also be your enemy.

Quote from: esoito on March 04, 2013, 10:23:46 PMWhat is it that underpins trends in this instance?  What is the X-Factor at work?

As the game of Roulette is in principle Chaotic (not random), under such light the X-factor has been named "attractor" (see Basin of Attraction):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basin_of_attraction

Basically, we don't deal with unbound variables, but we can't exactly underpin their swaying.

If the game were truly random there wouldn't be anything particularly expected out of it. We say Roulette is a chaotic system because even as knowing its configuration on a given moment doesn't enable you to predict its future state, the movement of the values is not entirely random; they tend toward certain values which keep an established trajectory. Attractors are responsible for keeping variables tending towards their established trajectory (this is what we call trends, the clumping can be seen as a "correction"). Even so, we can't predict the several oscillations of values  which variables might have when transversing the path established by the attractors.

Such a Chaotic system is advantageous to the house since while the overall values are already known, the variations in the ebb and flow to get there are not. The house is not unintelligent to put their money on truly unbound random. This is the big confusion regarding the "limits of random". "Random" does NOT has limits, Chaotic systems do because of attractors.

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Player-wise, correction points can be seen as the few points for the player to exploit (correction). As well as the random walks which will be scheduled to be corrected at a later time (positive trending).

Vic

Mathematics, by it's own characteristics, is unaware of the three states of any given roulette session in a casino. I don't know anyone that can play a million spin session. Mathematics, probability statistics, nor even basic simple arithmetic can't tell anyone when the next favorable state will occur and how long it will last.

If you play a balanced game, then you can act to minimise the correction of playing through the bad states. Without that equalising having an effect, the math does not have the ability to end in a large number, amount.

Quote from: Gizmotron on March 04, 2013, 10:52:51 PM

Sure, play as if the trend is your friend, but be aware that the trend can also be your enemy.

If this is the case( and in my opinion it is ) then we have NOTHING.

I've been trying to show people here that they don't have NOTHING. You don't have to pay attacking prices for your bets, while in losing streaks. You can save those prices for your winning streaks. I bet minimum bet prices during flat states & bad states. Why can't you?

Quote from: Gizmotron on March 04, 2013, 11:04:23 PM
Mathematics, by it's own characteristics, is unaware of the three states of any given roulette session in a casino. I don't know anyone that can play a million spin session. Mathematics, probability statistics, nor even basic simple arithmetic can't tell anyone when the next favorable state will occur and how long it will last.

If you play a balanced game, then you can act to minimise the correction of playing through the bad states. Without that equalising having an effect, the math does not have the ability to end in a large number, amount.

Gizmo you are wrong

Roulette is directed by law of large numbers, true. Statistics we have are averages for large number of spins (thousands).

So as you are here, someone might protest that probability that way can't be much of indicative predictor for such short term... But can this be true? No.

If spins didn't obeyed to those stats in the short term (at least to some point), they couldnt accumulate in the longterm giving those  longterm stats... They always have "tendency" to arange in the way the should, and that is visible and actualy measurable. it would mean that in short term almost anything can happen. Like 50 reds in a row. Because random has its limits we know that isn't possible. As in the longterm, so in the short term also. Simple as that.

It is true, maybe far limits of random are quite hard to catch and exploit due to their probabiliy, but still relying  on statistics from some point is better then betting random...

Cheers

Drazen

Quote from: Gizmotron on March 04, 2013, 11:15:18 PM
I've been trying to show people here that they don't have NOTHING. You don't have to pay attacking prices for your bets, while in losing streaks. You can save those prices for your winning streaks. I bet minimum bet prices during flat states & bad states. Why can't you?

I can but we never know when the winning state is gonna become a losing one and the opposite.

Razor, one spin at a time.

Quote from: Gizmotron on March 04, 2013, 11:04:23 PM
If you play a balanced game, then you can act to minimise the correction of playing through the bad states.

Why in god's name would you ever want to play THROUGH
the bad states?? If you can read random correctly, you
see the bad states and sit it out or move to another wheel.
Playing through them is a sure road to ruin. If you don't know
when NOT to bet, you shouldn't be playing.

I play at a casino that demands a minimum bet for every spin. I have no trouble playing with chump change while I wait. I hope it is a simple enough explanation for your requirements. If not, then tell it to somebody that gives a hoot.

Quote from: Marshall Bing Bell on March 05, 2013, 03:03:52 AM

What if others are placing bets at your table, can you sit out spins then?

no

Quote from: Gizmotron on March 05, 2013, 02:21:09 AM
I play at a casino that demands a minimum bet for every spin.

You mean you sit at the table? LOL!!! Priceless. I've
never sat at a roulette table and played in my life,
true story. How does it feel? I would think you have
a connection to the other ploppies surrounding you.

You're amazing, Gizmo. Do you share stories with them,
talk between spins? I can't stand it, my sides hurt from
laughing, my dog is giving me funny looks..

Quote from: spike on March 05, 2013, 07:16:15 AM
You mean you sit at the table? LOL!!! Priceless. I've
never sat at a roulette table and played in my life,
true story. How does it feel? I would think you have
a connection to the other ploppies surrounding you.

You're amazing, Gizmo. Do you share stories with them,
talk between spins? I can't stand it, my sides hurt from
laughing, my dog is giving me funny looks..

[mod]SPIKE: You're at it again! Posting simply to attack another member. Keep doing it and you'll keep being muted -- until you're kicked off. [/mod]

Let s all  try to be friendly and respect others opinions.
No need for sarcasm.
I know that everyone has done his research on the game and has his own conclusions based on his thinking.
No one can force anyone to think like he thinks,but as we are posting ideas and conclusions we filter what we want.
So in my opinion almost every post should start like: "In my opinion ,with my way of thinking,my research has shown, I think that,etc"