Thanks for your comments, however I have no wager.  I was going to bet last night but chickened out for sakes of a better reason.

My buddy HMoney just laid $20k on the Eagles.  Seriously dude!

I love both teams, Philadelphia a bit higher on my list but a true fan of both. 

I think Chiefs will pull ahead from 3-10 points, but again I believe Phili will catch up and hold them off and win by 3 or 7.  GO EAGLES.

It is today and I am ready.

Did I say, GO EAGLES? 

What a sky this morning!  Love it!

Well, read my thread below this one where the Eagles and Chiefs got to where they currently are.  And don't get me wrong both teams are amongst my favorite four teams.

RE: Thread Below:  https://betselection.cc/sports-betting-forum/todays-2-NFL-wagers/

Okay here it is:

Eagles will win: 27.  Chiefs 24.

Below picture is a screenshot text between a Vegas Casino Host and myself. The reference to the Korean place is a, 'cook at your table' style restaurant which winds up costing about $75.00-125.00 per person. 

Thank You,
Alrelax

Hard to believe, but really brazen people I guess.

Power outages at Las Vegas airport due to copper theft.

https://airlive.net/news/2025/02/04/power-outages-at-las-vegas-airport-due-to-copper-theft/

IMO and as I wrote:

Most all sit down and fall into an unconscious familiarity at the baccarat table. There is no growth process, learning curve or struggle with them to play the game to their advantage. 

Yes, it is sad but it is also uncontrollable behavior of their (at one time mine also) view on the game as well.  Why?  Because at the Baccarat table there is no waiting, no walking, no physical labor, no taking back and redoing, nothing that really prevents circumstances that could prevent us from continually believing we know everything and will win. When losses occur, they do.  When wins occur, they do.  So kind of instant everything to a certain point.  The trick is, IMO knowing the sheer reality and being able to handle both wins and losses to your advantage.

However if you believe in the reality of the game of baccarat and set aside your desires, you just completed one tiny (could be large) step and put on a great game face that can lead you down paths to your advantage.

You wrote above, "Since any shoe dealt is somewhat affected by a kind of conditional probability, it could be worthwhile to estimate the total of the actual number of cards utilized in relationship of an "expected value" verified by long term data."

Maybe you can (estimate the total/long term data), but I cannot envision nor trust for application to a 'Section' I am attempting to or in the process of smacking the casino. 

Anything and Everything, no matter what.  No Rhyme or Reason.  Of course sometimes there is, but just as frequently there is not.

All IMO, I reiterate repetitively.

The Way Things Should Go In Today's Session

Do not allow frustration, anger and/or recouping to be your guideline/frame-of-mind.  You have to be in control of the way you look at the shoe being presented. In place of frustration, anger and/or recouping, you must take action.  Your response (not the response of the shoe) will dictate what generally occurs in your wagering decisions. A part of your decisions are completely uncontrollable and undefinable circumstances will occur, while the majority of them are decided by your outlook on previous presentments and your opinion on what should/has to occur next.  Thus, you ultimately end up heavily dependent on playing your ends with the hopes of having them match your desires, instead of you matching what is being presented.

The Way You Used To Be

Simple!  Do not dig too deep. You are NOT the same gambling person you were last month, a few months ago, a year ago, etc. Even though you realize a greater amount of reality and what can or generally does not happen from a shoe, you need to realize what is happening—is occurring and what is not, might very quickly happen. Most people do not and never will.

When you do, you will master change rather than allowing it to master you.  So—please be humble when you play!  Be absorbable and realize reality.  Realize anything and everything can happen, but what is happening just happened. So many people do not and it's a concept of visualization taking over common sense.

Your Mistakes In Wagers

Forgive yourself for your bad decisions you have made in the past. For all the times you made stupid, unintelligent and blatantly obvious mistakes. Those were your vital lessons and that is all that matters. Period!

***Understand & Believing: Unchangeable***

It is simple, but so very difficult for most all to swallow, absorb and follow.  Can I change what is happening or what will happen?

Whatever you do, do not attempt to change what is occurring (being presented).  Truth be told in baccarat and other games, the most powerful moments will happen when you win. However, what you believe got you to that point (hand-section-series, etc) of wins will challenge your mindset.  Realizing you did not change the results to meet your desires, changes everything for your huge benefit which will equal further advantage for yourself.

There is a great amount of unchangeable in baccarat.  The quicker you understand that will be to your benefit in countless ways. 

Fantasy of a Perfect Path

Way too often most of us totally waste money and time as well as incur huge amounts of frustration and bad circumstances that prevent positive progress.

You must leave the fantasy at the door, 100% in total. There is no other way to explain it. You can believe it or not.

The Unknown Familiarity

Most all sit down and fall into an unconscious familiarity at the baccarat table. There is no growth process, learning curve or struggle with them to play the game to their advantage. 

Yes, it is sad but it is also uncontrollable behavior of their (at one time mine also) view on the game also.  Why?  Because at the Baccarat table there is no waiting, no walking, no physical labor, no taking back and redoing, nothing that really prevents circumstances that could prevent us from continually believing we know everything and will win. When losses occur, they do.  When wins occur, they do.  So kind of instant everything to a certain point.  The trick is, IMO knowing the sheer reality and being able to handle both wins and losses to your advantage.

However if you believe in the reality of the game of baccarat and set aside your desires, you just completed one tiny (could be large) step and put on a great game face that can lead you down paths to your advantage.

The Struggle.  The Results.

Struggling results are huge advantages in baccarat, no matter which way they go.

The struggle is your process during play. Uncomfortable at times and extremely comfortable during other times. The struggle you encounter each session should make you stronger, more educated and more experienced. The struggle will produce losses and wins. It is up to you to get in touch with reality and understand it while coupling a rock solid Money Management and Method.

Struggle does not mean you are always profitable.  However if used correctly, struggle can lead you to success in so many ways.  But you have to find it and know it.

The results are your losses and wins. How you handle those two will dictate the outcomes, session by session, month by month, year-by-year, etc.

READ CAREFULLY:  Your results will be formed by your decision making process and your Money Management Method.  Not much else. If you cannot be conscious of what your decision making process is, as well as a rock solid Money Management Method you are engaging with—pack it up. However if you do, there is a great chance you will define-describe and STRUGGLE into good profitable RESULTS.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sXgVafWnsas

Watch this to help you define Asian accents at the casino!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=673PjkcBG00

Grab a cup of coffee, a glass of your favorite liquor, or a sparkling water. And click on these.  IMO, some of the best.  Enjoy. 

If you don't laugh at this first one, something is wrong with you!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wK2dAoIxWBQ

If you can't feel this one, something is wrong!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_VBo7uc1i2k&pp=ygUUR2FtYmxpbmcgc2NlbmUgbW92aWU%3D


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sOPB9c4t0Ok

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=t2Z3vEfWZAo&pp=ygUWYmxhY2tqYWNrIHNjZW5lIGNhc2lubw%3D%3D

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xDFqRFODiMg

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FZlm1ledK-I

Gotta love this classic:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ZT3yyeikbic&pp=ygUYYmxhY2tqYWNrIHNjZW5lIGhhbmdvdmVy

What a line; "I want to know how we are doing.  Talk to me at 4:00 AM".  @ the 4:30 mark.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jQ9dCkuALok&pp=ygUUZ2FtYmxpbmcgc2NlbmUgbW92aWU%3D

One great scene!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XamC7-Pt8N0


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=y2pCZFpq9aA&pp=ygUaamFtZXMgYm9uZCBiYWNjYXJhdCBzY2VuZXM%3D

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7nFgqmAMglk&pp=ygUaamFtZXMgYm9uZCBiYWNjYXJhdCBzY2VuZXM%3D

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dTMHrljIW0g&pp=ygUaamFtZXMgYm9uZCBiYWNjYXJhdCBzY2VuZXM%3D

Come on man it's great;  "Okay, I'm done":
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=p0pBXE4pxtE&pp=ygUXTGFzIHZlZ2FzIHNlcmllcyBzY2VuZXM%3D

Another one, "This should be sweet".  Love the lines and actions from the dealer!  LMAO!!!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qQTrdxONG70

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MlCYBrLOP3A

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KoUs-1jppUk

Off the wall!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=iyE8XOn1CZo&pp=ygUXR2FicmllbCBJZ2xlc2lhcyBDYXNpbm8%3D

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=hTMWugFklMo&pp=ygURQ29tZWRpYW4gZ2FtYmxpbmc%3D

Love this, especially about the Indian people roulette reference!  Watch:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KvECCjLSSjI&pp=ygURQ29tZWRpYW4gZ2FtYmxpbmc%3D

Darn!  I just took a bite of a sandwich while I was watching the following one.  He got to his part about the Asians thinking they can change the card value and going ApeSh*t if they do or don't.  I literally began laughing so hard, my mouthful of food went everywhere!  Seriously! Lol!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=eC5cE09Ypyc

Classic without a doubt!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vk7eA4gVDno

About playing slot machines.  Hilarious! 
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1ci8bokXZ_s&pp=ygUWQ29tZWRpYW4gYWJvdXQgY2FzaW5vcw%3D%3D

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uSWJ6VF9bss

As Asym said; "Yep, after all at baccarat each bet wagered will get either a tremendously wrong or an astoundingly good result. Sometimes a hand won't be resolved (tie) and it's not a coincidence this situation happens way more often whenever six cards are utilized to form a final hand."

Please see my play and notes from the other night.

https://betselection.cc/baccarat-forum/session-from-heaven/msg72591/?topicseen#msg72591

Again, my Chiefs covered the -1.5 and I love it!

Badda Boom, Badda Bing once again! Lol.  $4K today.

So, this is sports betting huh? 

Safe to say here at the 3:00 min mark left in the 4th.

Badda Boom, Badda Bing!  Done Deal.

+ $2k for sitting watching a game, lol.

Well I normally do not do it. And it's been quite a long time since I wagered sports. And in addition, my four favorite NFL teams include the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles. Against my better judgment to wager favorites as a fan.

So with that said and taking into consideration a fantastic Bac win last night, which I'm going to outline in a new thread titled, "The Session From Heaven" in the Baccarat Forum here in just a bit.

Chiefs & Bills spread, took the Chiefs @ -1.5 for $2k

Eagles & Commanders spread, took the Eagles @ -6 for $2k.

Like I said they are my favorite teams but I'm not betting because of just that.  And again like I said, it's kind of against my better judgment but I'm doing it.

I do not talk deducing down by theory and what should be.  I talk from experience.  Been there and done it.  Lost.  Won.  Gave back winnings.  Chased winnings gave back and lost additional.  Won and held it and eventually gave it all back.  And everything in between.  But, when I finally learned about and defined a solid MMM, I became an advantaged player when compounded with the other things we discuss. 


You said, "Thus we cannot know precisely when key cards will land or privilege one side or the another one, what we can do is just approximating at best the A/B streaks "average" lenght or A/B "average" streaks/singles apparition." 

And that is so true.  But, the player must know how to handle his wagering losing and winning hands during the course of the shoe and session.  And I have written plenty about that.