Quote from: Albalaha on May 12, 2013, 07:47:28 AM
I still can't understand whether the figures that you arrived at are correct or not by your explanations. Can't you work it out spin by spin? If 36 spins are a cycle for you and u increase by every cycle loss and decrease by every cycle win, how could u bet 3 unit max?
            Can GreatGr or anybody else explain this?

Ok! Sumit I will try explaining this so that it is very clear.





There are three things that form the framework of this method.



1.       Keep things simple – We will treat 36 spins as one betting opportunity and the outcome of this 36 spins as a "W" or "L". In other words, if our chosen number for betting is "x", in a span of 36 spins, if "x" comes up once, we stop betting that 36 spin span and mark that span of 36 spins as "W". We will miss out if the number "x" comes again in the same span of 36 spins, but that's alright as we are looking at a bigger picture of winning consistently and remaining in profit.

2.      Ride on waves whether winning or losing – Easier said than done. Easy in theory and difficult in practice. However, I have seen that we can do it with far more success with two important things that I have learnt. "Virtual betting" and "Cyclic betting". Virtual betting is a well-known concept and I don't have to explain it, I guess because any serious player will be aware of it. "Cyclic betting" is something that I will explain. It is not cyclic progression. It is very different from cyclic progression. "Cyclic betting" is all about analysing a cycle to understand win/loss waves and start riding on those waves. It is built around the fallacy (or should I say philosophy) that wins/losses come in cycles whether in life or in roulette. Chosing individual spins to analyse this waves will not give the right picture as it is a phenomenon that is going to last over a few betting opportunities and not on individual betting opportunities. What it does is, it takes a set of betting opportunities and see whether we were winning or losing on those betting opportunities and what was the last occurrence. If both comes out as "W", then it is a signal of good things J

For this framework it translates as follows. We consider cycles of 5 betting outcomes. Lets say the outcome of 5 sets of 36 spins looks as  - WWLLW. So this is a winning cycle, as there were 3 Ws compared to 2 Ls. Also, to understand whether the wave is still continuing or not, we take the last betting outcome. IT is a "W". So we "assume" that the winning wave is continuing and put our money on the next set of 36 spins expecting a favourable outcome. I stress on "assume" because it is not conclusive and not an definite confirmation of things to come, but an indication of things to come. A few more examples.

WWLWW – We bet on the next 36 spins
WLLWW – we bet on the next 36 spins
LWWWL – we don't, as the cycle is won, but the last outcome is L
LWLWL – We don't, as the cycle is lost
WLLLW – We don't, as the last outcome was won, but the cycle is lostAnd so on. So essentially this is our trigger.

3.       Cyclical progression – This is being discussed in other topics in forum. So won't go into the details, but it is essentially treating our betting opporutnities in cycles and progressing it, using a progression that suits.So every time we chose to bet using point number 2 will be considered as 1 of a cycle of 5 bets. And depending on whether these 5 bets result in losing amount we increase stakes by 1 and if it results in winning amount we decrease the stakes by 1 and reset to base unit when there is an overall gain.

 Now that I have posted the concepts, let me try walking through few spins in the zumma challenge and the details of rest can be seen in the excel attached.

·         We start betting straightaway or we chose to wait for the first set of 5 cycles of 36 spins to complete to understand whether it was a winning or a losing cycle. I have chosen to wait. The outcome of the first 5 sets of 36 spins are WWWWW. Outright win both on the cycle and the last outcome of the 36 spin span. So we chose to bet the next span of 36 spins. 1 unit on number 3 until we get a hit or completion of 36 spins. We get a hit in spin number 11. So we stop betting here and start observing 5 sets of 36 spins. At this stage our bank roll is +25 (36 – 11). Our cycle count for progression is 1·         The outcome of the next 5 sets of 36 spin spans are WWLLW. Win on cycle and win on the last outcome of the 36 spin span. So we choose to bet the next span of 36 spins. 1 unit on number 3 until we get a hit or 36 spins. We get a hit on spin 31. So we stop betting here and start observing 5 sets of 36 spins. At this stage our bank roll is +30 (+25 from earlier bets and +5 from this betting opportunity).  Our cycle count for progression is 2.
·         The outcome of the next 5 sets of 36 spin spans are WWWWW. Win on cycle and win on the last outcome of the 36 spin span. So we choose to bet the next span of 36 spins. 1 unit on number 3 until we get a hit or 36 spins. We get a hit on spin 7. So we stop betting here and start observing 5 sets of 36 spins. At this stage our bank roll is +59 (+30 from earlier bets and +29 from this betting opportunity).  Our cycle count for progression is 3.
·         The outcome of the next 5 sets is WWWWL. The cycle is a win, but the last outcome is a loss. So we assume that this is a start of a losing wave and sit out the next 5 sets of 36 spins. There is no trigger for us to bet the next set of 36 spins. BR remains at +59 and cycle count for progression remains at 3 as we choose not to bet this cycle and hence will not count towards progression.·         The outcome of the next set is LWWLW. This cyle is a win and the last outcome is also a win. So we bet on the next set of 36 spins. We lose this 36 spins, as the number 3 did not come in 36 spins. We continue to observe this 5 sets of 36 spins. The BR at the end of this cycle is +23 (36 lost in this cycle subtracted from +59 from previous bets). The cycle count for progression is 4. ·         We proceed this way for the next set and figure out that our next trigger for betting is not appearing for a few sets. The outcomes of few following sets are LWLLL, WWLWL, LLWLL, LLLWW, LLLWW. And then we get a WWWLW. So here comes our trigger. A cycle win and a last outcome win. So we go with 1 unit bet on number 3 for the next set of 36 spins. We get a hit on spin number 8 and stop betting to observe the next cycle. Our BR at the end of this is +51 (28 from this set and 23 from previous history). Our cycle progression count is now 5. We are at the end of our progression cycle. We look at our outcome of this 5 bets and we are in positive and hence a win. So we subtract one from the units that we were betting lost. Because we were betting on base unit, we remain at base unit. ·         The process goes on after resetting the cyclic progression count to 0. Now the result of our next 5 betting opportunities were +4, +9, -36, -36, -36, this adds up to -95. So we lost this progression cycle and because we lost, we increase our unit size by 1. At the end of this second cycle, which was a set of 10 betting opportunities, we are at -44 units.·         The result of next 5 betting opportunities is -114 units betting 2 units on every valid betting opportunity. Again a loss, so we increment our unit by 1. Now the units that we will bet becomes 3 and the overall BR is -158. ·         The result of next 5 betting opportunities is +270 units betting 3 units. A win, so we decrement our unit size by 1. It becomes 2 units. Now we find out our overall BR. We are +156 units. As we are in overall profit, we reset our bet size to one unit.·        We go on and on. The details further can be easily seen from the excel I posted.  For this set of 15000 spins, using this our maximum progression is 3 units. Using this cyclical betting progression our final outcome at the end of 15,000 spins is +287 units.
·         Now apply the same method to any number from 0 to 36 in your 15,000 spins, the probability of getting a positive unit size is really high. If Sumit, you can share may be a couple of numbers which are next worst performing and LW for those numbers, we can run this on those set of numbers to see how this method stakes.

 
              At least there is someone who has a vision to fight the worst but would you like to apply the same approach in case of a number which is going great from beginning to finish? Since we can't predict which bet will go very good, good, bad or worst a strategy like this doesn't look feasible for general playing.
               Can someone verify the method in the given data and present it with flow of bankroll in entire 15k spins with graph?

I am hereby officially declaring that I have won this challenge myself within a limited betting range 1-30 chips and limited bankroll of 5k chips. The winnings are more than 1k units. Same approach that beats #3 can beat the second worst number, third worst, average hitting numbers, good hitting numbers and the best hitting numbers alike.
           It is a pity that nobody could do this in more than a year. This was not just an open challenge to all of you but me too.
               I hereby officially declare beating this challenge within a reasonable setup and without any reverse engineering that too with an approach that will earn even better in good hit rate (not a system meant to work in bad cases only).
               The approach that beats zumma #3 or say any number can beat any bet of roulette having as much variance in long run as #3 had, be it european wheel or american wheel.


       Since I have nothing left to debate or discuss after this I am getting off all public and private gambling related forums forever. http://albalaha.lefora.com/topic/19400612/Holy-Grail-short-playable-session-concluding-research-deb#.Utdk-9IW1A4


             I hereby also declare that I have beaten this game in short playable sessions (not in 15k spins) too and profit that I will get is lucrative and not just 1 unit somehow.
                  I can win Steve Hermouzes and wizardofodds.com and imspirit.wordpress.com roulette challenges but why should I bother for them as it will expose my methods to masses and I doubt they will pay me what they say.
            By saying all this I do not want to ridicule or tease you but say that if you want to have same success as I got, only work on a sound money management which can let you sustain and survive till virtual stretch of variance and gets net win even when it is hitting below break even. The number 3 challenge was exactly meant for this.
You may not hear from me in public forums after this.
Good luck to all

http://albalaha.lefora.com/topic/19400613/No-system-for-Sale-anymore#.UteSbNIW1A4

As far as I can see from reading this thread at least GreatGrampa clearly beat the challenge with a method which he demonstrated twice with an very full explanation the second time.  Unfortunately, it seems his method was too complicated for Albalaha to comprehend so he dismissed it on both ocassions.

Anyone can frame a method if he can see the wins/losses beforehand. GGP did exactly that. His method is not playable in general conditions. Try to play his way in normal sessions, you will know it yourself.
            Since I do not want to have any debate anymore, I am locking this topic. If any moderator/admin has trouble with any of my posts/topics he can delete that and even my membership.

Hmm, thread closed.  Al's gone.
The clock is ticking. . . . . .

This snapshot will reveal a bit of how my methodology worked on number 3
[attachimg=1]

A comparison with how it did in flat bet, would be great.

Hang on, buddy.
           Not for sale because HG can not be sold or purchased. 


It has to be earned. Archie is correct that no one can pay enough for such things and a true HG owner can earn anything he wishes with itself. One more thing, one can not earn very big with it, since it has drawdown too and only those who expect a mild earning, working hard, can use it. Not for daydreamers.

For better or for worse the thread is now unlocked.

The thread asks a question so it's odd having it locked so people can't answer the question!

BE CAREFUL:  I'll lock it again if posts break the rules  -- so kindly READ AND ABIDE BY THEM!!      Thanks.

There is nothing that you can guess, patternanalysis @smiley @ englishwriter.
    I am testing the second worst number 34, in the same way. Will give you more puzzles to guess.

See the fate of the second worst number.
[attachimg=1]

See, if we play the same number flat bet:
[attachimg=1]