Ever thought of any long term progression?

soxfan · March 20, 2016, 06:47:36 PM

With my style I could capture regular nice profit winning just 16.6666666666 percents of my placed bet, depending of course how those w/l cluster, hey hey.

Albalaha · March 21, 2016, 03:28:18 AM

First of all, I appreciate blue angel's efforts but to cross check if his same progression holds in a lesser harsh 64/200 or not I am giving another session. If the same methodology beats this session too, it is worth checking since even marty or labby would have failed to win this session even with much higher bets.
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Albalaha · March 21, 2016, 03:42:27 AM

Quote
From 25 wins out of 100 results we are arriving on the next interval of 66 wins out of 200 outcomes.
Let's assume that the first 100 and the next 100 are from the same session, 25/100 is 25% while 66/200 is 33%.

As you see from the first checkpoint to the next there is an increasement of 8% (33-25=8).
We could expect a similar increasement (8%) within the next set of 100 results which means approximately 40% of 300 outcomes or 120 wins VS 180 losses.

It's becoming apparently clear that regression towards the mean takes place after extreme deviations, so by expanding the event's horizon we're moving closer towards the mean and in return help us to recover smoothly.

This is where the solution lays and could be applicable in practical terms (within limits of time and money)

Very true and this is what we need to work upon as a progression of long run. Let's see if your methodology works to beat this 64/200 with same idea.

Albalaha · March 21, 2016, 03:55:13 AM

Regression towards mean starts to help with further wins going closer to average gradually but we can't guess the span after which it should start to work in our favour and that is why we need to think of longer like 500 or even 1000 spins progression to win at last. We might not win all types of 25/100 or 66/200 but for sure the worst of 1000,i.e. 405/1000.

Albalaha · March 21, 2016, 04:55:57 AM

Quote from: soxfan on March 20, 2016, 06:47:36 PM
With my style I could capture regular nice profit winning just 16.6666666666 percents of my placed bet, depending of course how those w/l cluster, hey hey.

even Oscar's Grind wins in 20 losses vs 6 wins

LLLLL LLLLL LLLLL LLLLL WWWWW W

BUT it doesn't make it a winner in 17% wins in different styles, hence useless.

We can't get wins in our desired way, hence something working in different varieties is needed.

Blue_Angel · March 21, 2016, 08:36:23 AM

Quote from: Albalaha on March 21, 2016, 03:42:27 AM
Very true and this is what we need to work upon as a progression of long run. Let's see if your methodology works to beat this 64/200 with same idea.

I said 66 wins out of 200 results, not 64.

Albalaha · March 21, 2016, 09:09:42 AM

Quote from: Blue_Angel on March 21, 2016, 08:36:23 AM
I said 66 wins out of 200 results, not 64.

Add two more wins anywhere u prefer after first 11 wins and then try.

Blue_Angel · March 21, 2016, 12:04:11 PM

R=result B=bet T=total ME=minimum expectation

R B T ME
L 1 -1 66
L 1 -2 66
L 1 -3 66
L 1 -4 66
W 1 -3 65
L 1 -4 65
L 1 -5 65
L 1 -6 65
W 1 -5 64
L 1 -6 64
L 1 -7 64
W 1 -6 63
L 1 -7 63
L 1 -8 63
L 1 -9 63
L 1 -10 63
L 1 -11 63
L 1 -12 63
L 1 -13 63
L 1 -14 63
W 1 -13 62
L 1 -14 62
W 1 -13 61
L 1 -14 61
L 1 -15 61
W 1 -14 60
L 1 -15 60
W 1 -14 59
L 1 -15 59
W 1 -14 58
L 1 -15 58
L 1 -16 58
W 1 -15 57
W 1 -14 56
L 1 -15 56
L 1 -16 56
L 1 -17 56
W 1 -16 55
L 1 -17 55
L 1 -18 55
L 1 -19 55
L 1 -20 55
W 1 -19 54
L 1 -20 54
L 1 -21 54
L 1 -22 54
W 1 -21 53
L 1 -22 53
L 1 -23 53
L 1 -24 53
W 1 -23 52
L 1 -24 52
L 1 -25 52
W 1 -24 51
L 1 -25 51
L 1 -26 51
W 1 -25 50
L 1 -26 50
L 1 -27 50
L 1 -28 50
L 1 -29 50
L 1 -30 50
L 1 -31 50
L 1 -32 50
L 1 -33 50
L 1 -34 50
L 1 -35 50
L 1 -36 50
W 1 -35 49
L 1 -36 49
L 1 -37 49
W 1 -36 48
W 1 -35 47
L 1 -36 47
L 1 -37 47
L 1 -38 47
W 1 -37 46
L 1 -38 46
L 1 -39 46
L 1 -40 46
L 1 -41 46
W 1 -40 45
L 1 -41 45
L 1 -42 45
W 1 -41 44
L 1 -42 44
L 1 -43 44
L 1 -44 44
W 2 -42 86
L 2 -44 86
L 2 -46 86
L 2 -48 86
L 2 -50 86
W 2 -48 84
L 2 -50 84
L 2 -52 84
L 2 -54 84
W 2 -52 82
L 2 -54 82
W 2 -52 80
L 2 -54 80
L 2 -56 80
W 2 -54 78
L 2 -56 78
L 2 -58 78
W 2 -56 76
L 2 -58 76
W 2 -56 74
L 2 -58 74
W 2 -56 72
L 2 -58 72
L 2 -60 72
W 2 -58 70
L 2 -60 70
L 2 -62 70
W 2 -60 68
L 2 -62 68
L 2 -64 68
W 2 -62 66
L 2 -64 66
L 2 -66 66
L 3 -69 99
W 3 -66 96
L 3 -69 96
L 3 -72 96
W 3 -69 93
L 3 -72 93
L 3 -75 93
W 3 -72 90
L 3 -75 90
L 3 -78 90
W 3 -75 87
L 3 -78 87
W 3 -75 84
L 3 -78 84
L 3 -81 84
W 3 -78 81
L 3 -81 81
L 4 -85 108
W 4 -81 104
L 4 -85 104
L 4 -89 104
L 4 -93 104
W 4 -89 100
L 4 -93 100
W 4 -89 96
L 4 -93 96
L 4 -97 96
W 5 -92 115
W 5 -87 110
L 5 -92 110
L 5 -97 110
L 5 -102 110
L 5 -107 110
L 5 -112 110
W 6 -106 126
L 6 -112 126
W 6 -106 120
L 6 -112 120
W 6 -106 114
L 6 -112 114
W 6 -106 108
L 6 -112 108
L 7 -119 126
W 7 -112 119
L 7 -119 119
L 8 -127 136
W 8 -119 128
W 8 -111 120
L 8 -119 120
L 8 -127 120
W 9 -118 126
L 9 -127 126
L 10 -137 140
L 10 -147 140
W 11 -136 143
W 11 -125 132
L 11 -136 132
W 12 -124 132
L 12 -136 132
L 13 -149 143
W 14 -135 140
L 14 -149 140
W 15 -134 135
L 15 -149 135
L 17 -166 153
W 19 -147 152
L 19 -166 152
L 21 -187 168
W 24 -163 168
W 24 -139 144
L 24 -163 144
L 28 -191 168
W 32 -159 160
L 32 -191 160
W 39 -152 156
W 39 -113 117
W 39 -74 78
W 39 -35 39
W 39 +4 0

Cheers!

TheLaw · March 21, 2016, 01:42:21 PM

Hey Blue,

I assume that this is different than the other (HG) method that you posted.

Can you post the rules?...........looks like a smaller dd than the other................or perhaps that's just the numbers selected.

Thanks!

Albalaha · March 21, 2016, 02:06:38 PM

Dear Blue Angel,
Are you sure it is a mechanical way to play? I can see that in first session u played with 1 unit for about 30 spins. In 2nd session you played with 1 unit for too long. Can you describe how a method is being played actually and how do you calculate your next bet?

Thanks in anticipation
and Kudos for trying to fight with extreme.

Blue_Angel · March 21, 2016, 04:14:07 PM

I thought it was pretty obvious the way it works.

I don't share something like this if I don't have something better...

So this betting plan begins by defining the minimum expectation for any given bet selection within a specific amount of results.

If we know the minimum possible expectation then we use it in combination with the respective payout of our selection.

The payout and the minimum expectation are creating the progression, the progression I've used in the above examples.

The second example was smoother, milder than the first because the minimum expectation moved towards the probability, in other words its deviation declined as the total of spins increased.
This is what we call regression towards the mean and both of the above examples are VERY extreme occasions!

Let's say that 66 wins out of 200 results is the minimum possible for any EC, 66/200 is roughly 1/3, BUT it's different to use the one third of 30 results and different of 300 or even 3000.

As the total of outcomes increases events tend to average out as their probability indicates, in small samples such as 30 or 50 results we could experience huge deviations from probability.
This is what we call law of large numbers.

Back to my mathematical progression, I prefer to use a minimum expectation of a relatively large total of results because I know that sooner or later I'm going to achieve my minimum expectation.
To be more specific, I believe that this total should be between 222 to 333 outcomes if we are talking about EC on roulette.
222 spins are 6 x 37 and 333 are 9 x 37, anywhere within those spins even the most extreme deviation can be tamed as the time passes by.
So we have to be careful and conservative in the beginning and act more drastically as time is on our side.

If I establish my minimum expectation on 100 wins out of 300 results most likely I'm going to get these 100 wins before I bet 300 times, by the time I achieve my 100th win I must be in positive balance.
Every time I win my bet I deduct from the minimum expectation the same amount I just won from my bet, if I raise my bet to 2 units I'm multiplying the remaining wins by 2, if I raise my bet to 3 units I multiply the remaining wins by 3 and so on...

However there is an "Achilles heel" in my progression, if I'm in negative balance and the remaining wins are too few, like 1 or 2, at that time the bets would increase rapidly like Martingale.
If the last expected win is far from the before last win and on the same time I'm in negative balance my bets would increase like Martingale.
If this happens during I'm in positive balance, it's not problem because I can stop right there and restart from scratch.

Of course I've found a solution for the other case but I'm not going to share it with you, I've already told you enough.

BetJack · March 21, 2016, 04:50:16 PM

The system that always wins but little ...

http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=260.msg1949#msg1949

Quote
After reading the discussion on Johnson progression and Belgian, it was created a similar system.

The system starts from the following assumptions:
-the selection of the spin does NOT exist (but if the players think they have one, so much better and win more easily)
-it comes to exploiting a financial strategy that, necessarily, must be very sophisticated or even very complicated;
-in 100 spins on the EC, it is impossible for a player NOT win at least 22 spins;
-the yield is 4%(not very high) of strokes played.

So in a pattern of registration there will be about 100 spins, losers spins (78) CP, surely winning spins (22) CV and the winning goal (4) OV.
CP, CV and OV are linked together by a formula that indicates the bet after each spin.
So, you can imagine, every attack closes at the 22nd win into 100 spins. It could be at the 100° spin (bad luck!) Or after 22 spins if we win them all in a row (Lucky!).

BET = losers spins (CP) 78 + Objective of winning (OV) 20 (ie 4 pieces of 5 €), all divided by the winning spins (CV) 22.
The first bet will be of 5 euro (approximately in excess).
If you win the next BET is 78 + 15 (3 pieces from 5 euro), all divided by 21.
If you lose instead the BET is 77 + 25 (4 pieces of OV, plus 5 euro lost), all divided by 22 and so on.

Three suggestions for simplify things:
- Play in the differential mode, if possible;
- Do not play the system "continuously". Therefore, at each winning a piece, then starts again. The yield is still 4% of strokes played, and the games will be less time duration;
- Winning goal (OV), the formula must be ZERO! Yes, Zero, AWESOME! Why?
Explanation: it is clear that in 100 spins, the system closes as soon as you have reached the 22nd winning.
If the 22nd winning happens at the 100th spin, we will be in equal position after maybe we lost 4 hours at the table for anything, but it does not practically happen.
If the 22nd win happens to the 50th or 60th spin (very often!) or even earlier, however, we will have a win that will always be equal, ON AVERAGE, the difference between winning spins and lost spins.

I open a parenthesis, that will be useful later when you try to build your own system.
If instead of playing on simple chances,EC , you want apply such formula on dozens:
BET: CP + OG, all divided for CV and then multiplied for 2(the dozen pays 2 pieces), 11 would be multiplied if we play on triplets, 35 multiplied if we play on plein number, etc.

It is important to set the correct parameters of winning and losing spins.
In the case of Belgian system, it would used as parameters that in 200 spins i expect to win 65 spins(because i know that at least black or red will reach that level) and 135 lost spins.
CP=135 OG=0 or what you prefer CV=65
First bet is: 135/65 = 2 euro

I hope i gave you some good idea.

[end quote]

Blue_Angel · March 21, 2016, 05:11:18 PM

Quote from: BetJack on March 21, 2016, 04:50:16 PM
The system that always wins but little ...

http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=260.msg1949#msg1949

Quote
After reading the discussion on Johnson progression and Belgian, it was created a similar system.

The system starts from the following assumptions:
-the selection of the spin does NOT exist (but if the players think they have one, so much better and win more easily)
-it comes to exploiting a financial strategy that, necessarily, must be very sophisticated or even very complicated;
-in 100 spins on the EC, it is impossible for a player NOT win at least 22 spins;
-the yield is 4%(not very high) of strokes played.

So in a pattern of registration there will be about 100 spins, losers spins (78) CP, surely winning spins (22) CV and the winning goal (4) OV.
CP, CV and OV are linked together by a formula that indicates the bet after each spin.
So, you can imagine, every attack closes at the 22nd win into 100 spins. It could be at the 100° spin (bad luck!) Or after 22 spins if we win them all in a row (Lucky!).

BET = losers spins (CP) 78 + Objective of winning (OV) 20 (ie 4 pieces of 5 €), all divided by the winning spins (CV) 22.
The first bet will be of 5 euro (approximately in excess).
If you win the next BET is 78 + 15 (3 pieces from 5 euro), all divided by 21.
If you lose instead the BET is 77 + 25 (4 pieces of OV, plus 5 euro lost), all divided by 22 and so on.

Three suggestions for simplify things:
- Play in the differential mode, if possible;
- Do not play the system "continuously". Therefore, at each winning a piece, then starts again. The yield is still 4% of strokes played, and the games will be less time duration;
- Winning goal (OV), the formula must be ZERO! Yes, Zero, AWESOME! Why?
Explanation: it is clear that in 100 spins, the system closes as soon as you have reached the 22nd winning.
If the 22nd winning happens at the 100th spin, we will be in equal position after maybe we lost 4 hours at the table for anything, but it does not practically happen.
If the 22nd win happens to the 50th or 60th spin (very often!) or even earlier, however, we will have a win that will always be equal, ON AVERAGE, the difference between winning spins and lost spins.

I open a parenthesis, that will be useful later when you try to build your own system.
If instead of playing on simple chances,EC , you want apply such formula on dozens:
BET: CP + OG, all divided for CV and then multiplied for 2(the dozen pays 2 pieces), 11 would be multiplied if we play on triplets, 35 multiplied if we play on plein number, etc.

It is important to set the correct parameters of winning and losing spins.
In the case of Belgian system, it would used as parameters that in 200 spins i expect to win 65 spins(because i know that at least black or red will reach that level) and 135 lost spins.
CP=135 OG=0 or what you prefer CV=65
First bet is: 135/65 = 2 euro

I hope i gave you some good idea.

[end quote]

I've posted mine before user "Paulnewman" did on 15/04/2015, so that user copied mine and Kavouras copied his.

My first topic on 12/04/2015regarding the particular progression: http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=257.msg2556#msg2556

My second topic on 18/04/2015 regarding the particular progression: http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=267.0

However it's not exactly the same because the other progression must bet decimal amounts while 1 unit could only be divided when your initial bet is 10 units, this means tenfold bankroll for the same results!

Blue_Angel · March 21, 2016, 05:12:18 PM

I've posted mine before user "Paulnewman" did on 15/04/2015, so that user copied mine and Kavouras copied his.

My first topic on 12/04/2015regarding the particular progression: http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=257.msg2556#msg2556

My second topic on 18/04/2015 regarding the particular progression: http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=267.0

However it's not exactly the same because the other progression must bet decimal amounts while 1 unit could only be divided when your initial bet is 10 units, this means tenfold bankroll for the same results!

Albalaha · March 22, 2016, 02:13:12 AM

In the second session, your ME went upto 44 correctly. Then it shot to 86 for unknown reasons. Later after 66 it again rose to 99. Can you explain?