Quote from: Jay on December 17, 2016, 02:36:25 AM
Well thanks but whether you choose to call it "prediction" or something else doesn't really resolve the dilemma as far as I can see. What you seem to be saying is that you try to anticipate a winning streak based on one or more past wins, and the signal to stop betting is when you get one or more losses. If there was an advantage in this it should show up in the stats shouldn't it? But according to my research it doesn't. What I've found is that past successes don't reliably indicate future successes, and also past losses don't indicate more losses. What seems to be the beginning of a trend could reverse at any time, and similarly what seems be the end of a trend could also be just be temporary. What happens is that the false starts and ends eat away at your bankroll so that in the end you break even, or worse.

Exactly!  There is no 'prediction' that can prevail past a section/shoe/a couple of shoes here and there.  The key to it all, is hit and run, or bang it out big time when it is there, etc., etc., and so on. 

Ref the 'false start and eats away at the bankroll statement.  That is what gets the highest majority of the players.  Again, the key is to bang it out with larger wagers when your key triggers are present and capitalize on that section and then be done with it. 

Exactly!  There is no 'prediction' that can prevail past a section/shoe/a couple of shoes here and there.  The key to it all, is hit and run, or bang it out big time when it is there, etc., etc., and so on. 

I don't agree, i use prediction with succés. Clustering EC into 1 in 3 probability. EC distribution with same distribution as dozen with bias/domination. Very common to see two events out of Three hitting 5. 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, times in a row.
Don't see past clustering results as gamblers fallacy, i see them as a Dice with odds and probability.

Here is one example that 8 Clustering Entering poinsts has bias/domination where only one combination fail.

333 a x
331 b xx
332 c

311 a xx
312 b x
313 c

322 a
321 b xx
323 c

- - -

222 a
221 b xx
223 c

211 a xx
212 b x
213 c 

233 a
232 b
231 c xx

- - -

111 a
112 b xx
113 c x 

122 a x
121 b xx
123 c   

133 a x
131 b x
132 c x

Its easy to win when you use Dice as your benchmark and ride on sleepers to contine to sleep and put your Money on domination/repeats/bias.
But most don't understand the complexitiy behind clustering and using a Dice as benchmark for EC.

Quote from: Jay on December 17, 2016, 02:36:25 AM
Well thanks but whether you choose to call it "prediction" or something else doesn't really resolve the dilemma as far as I can see. What you seem to be saying is that you try to anticipate a winning streak based on one or more past wins, and the signal to stop betting is when you get one or more losses.

It is clear to me just how far you can see. Thanks for being so transparent. If you don't know that winning streaks are always mathematically ahead then your use of describing my technique as trying to anticipate a winning streak is short sighted. Have you ever heard others on gambling forums talk about clustering. You clearly have not heard me talk about the global effect and the effectiveness states. I don't anticipate, I observe conditions that are actually already there. I described this, coincidentally, as something as simple as conditional awareness. It's not me that is semantically attempting to describe prediction in other words. It's you.


P.S. That's funny. The very next post has the topic of clustering in it.

When advent of a streak can neither be predicted nor it can be identified till it passes, how can one take benefit of them conclusively?
For example, if we are playing say two dozens, a 7 step streak could come in  a few spins or in 100s. How will one plan to extract from that in all those cases? You won't get near perfect cases always but opposite mostly.

Quote from: Albalaha on December 17, 2016, 09:15:37 PM
When advent of a streak can neither be predicted nor it can be identified till it passes, how can one take benefit of them conclusively?
For example, if we are playing say two dozens, a 7 step streak could come in  a few spins or in 100s. How will one plan to extract from that in all those cases? You won't get near perfect cases always but opposite mostly.

You are right. You will not get seven in a row in your favor very often. Perhaps you should go back to school and find out why. Ponder this. If you don't risk anything you will not get anything. All I hear is excuses. If you can't predict the future you are going to take your toys and go home. My question to you is why do you gamble? You sound like you are already beaten just walking in the door. You don't get the first bet / win concept do you?  The only thing you need to figure out is that with a two out of three chance at balancing you need to figure out how to live with one third of your bets losing. Once you know how to break even with the double dozens bets then and only then are you ready to go beyond that level of play.

Quote from: Gizmotron on December 17, 2016, 12:06:14 PM

Have you ever heard others on gambling forums talk about clustering. You clearly have not heard me talk about the global effect and the effectiveness states.

I'm aware of the idea of clusters, perhaps you could clarify and define what a cluster is? when it begins and when it ends? At the moment it all seems a bit fuzzy. Sputnik says for the even chances a cluster is 2 out of 3 wins in the past 3 spins, what would it be for a double dozen?

And correct, I haven't read any of your other posts. Can you point me to where you have written about this? Thanks.

Not saying 2 events in the past 3 spins.
PM me and i will give you a link that explain how you can clustering EC into same distribution with the odds and probability 1 in 3.

Cheers

Quote from: Jay on December 18, 2016, 03:34:50 AM
I'm aware of the idea of clusters, perhaps you could clarify and define what a cluster is? when it begins and when it ends? At the moment it all seems a bit fuzzy. Sputnik says for the even chances a cluster is 2 out of 3 wins in the past 3 spins, what would it be for a double dozen?

And correct, I haven't read any of your other posts. Can you point me to where you have written about this? Thanks.

You should know that clusters come in all kinds of sizes. I go into this in depth with regards to the global effect.



It is because I get questions like this all the time that I opened up a school to teach my concepts. I wrote several versions of teaching software to not only teach but to make it possible to gain needed experience. I put it all in one private forum for students only. I charge the price of a well informed gambling book. PM me and I will show you how to sign up. There are over 500 posts and many many answers to questions just like yours there to go through. This is a major undertaking imparting instructions on how to gain a skill. It will teach you the nature of randomness as a readable language.

We do not need to predict the future outcomes. It is just not possible and hence not worth trying. What we need is an approach that is dynamic enough to handle the variance of all sorts without losing much foolishly. With Regression towards mean we should be able to win in the long run. That is what I am pointing out here.
        All money management approaches that we see around failed to ignore this vital truth and hence worthless.

We can predict only one thing with some kind of accuracy. In long run(enough trials that can be numerically defined) things would be closer to the average expectancy. Identifying trends or patterns or any other kind of fanciful guessing doesn't work in a short playable sessions. I am not talking of the so called "advantage gamblers".

Quote from: Albalaha on December 30, 2016, 10:58:25 AM

Identifying trends or patterns or any other kind of fanciful guessing doesn't work in a short playable sessions.

I am not talking of the so called "advantage gamblers".

I think you are absolutely dead wrong, 1,000% concerning this.  Although you can say it both ways, meaning-one cannot identify anything 'before hand' or, one cannot identify when it is happening.

If you are merely saying, one cannot identify when it is going to happen, you are correct--of course.  However, in reality and in live casino play, players all the time can and do, identify a cluster or section or 'short playable' that will produce winner after winner.  I do it all the time.  But cannot say because of XYZ---ABC will happen and it will happen between hands 20 to 35 or whatever number. 

As far as a section with numerous hands that are either weak, strong, repeating trend or pattern, numbers strong or weak, cutting, etc., etc., etc., it is still the greatest and easiest way to capitalize on a cluster/section, etc., of baccarat.

Anyway, as far as baccarat, I have no idea about Roulette or anything else. 

QuoteIf you are merely saying, one cannot identify when it is going to happen, you are correct--of course.  However, in reality and in live casino play, players all the time can and do, identify a cluster or section or 'short playable' that will produce winner after winner.

If you are now seeing say BBBB what can you identify seeing this? If you guess this is streak, the chance of ending the streak right here and goin one more time is equal. How can you utilize that? After the end of a session it is easier to analyse but identifying an "opportunity" at correct times could be done only with clairvoyance. Sadly I do not have clairvoyance. I work on logic only.

This is amusing. Magician, master of magical thinking, and not ashamed to show it. Albalaha, trying to ignore opportunities by dismissing the clues people hand him.


Dismiss this: Every 300 spins there are coldest numbers that always closely produce the same statistical average number of hits. If you filter these numbers out of balanced play choices like the double dozens or the EC's, if you have the skill to identify them, if you know the nature of how cold numbers wake up and active numbers go to sleep in 300 spins, then based on that alone, without any magical math, but with plain old arithmetic, you can beat the math. It all comes down to clod number identification. If your balanced play follows the math you should be about 5% down at the end of the 300 spins. But if you filtered out the coldest numbers along the way you should be well above the even point. The needed information to do this is experience. I have it and both of you don't, by your own admission of understanding.


You've been schooled.

I am not that naïve to say a guess is clustering on a BBBB. 

I am actually referring to something more tangible.  I know I wrote about this stuff somewhere here on the board. 

Clustering and Sections is gold in baccarat.  However, there are numerous factors that go into the identification of such a cluster or section that could be picked for the gold.

As far as the statement, 'when you know it is too late'.  I agree for those new to the game or those that wait too long. 

I can only conclude my argument by saying, "every guess or method of guessing" is equally like to help or kill. Claiming of gaining an advantage from any wild method of guessing or identifying the running trends is as frivilous as it could be. Be real guys.