BetSelection.cc

Please login or register.

Topic: Making bet selection complex doesn't help in a random game  (Read 24584 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline BEAT-THE-WHEEL

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 506
    • View Profile
Re: Making bet selection complex doesn't help in a random game
« Reply #45 on: August 05, 2016, 06:13:08 AM »
  • ReplyReply
  • [quote author=Mike link=topic=6373.msg48056#msg48056 date=147038443


    @ BEAT-THE-WHEEL,

    Selections based on probability won't overcome the house edge. You need a way to select bets which overcome the house advantage otherwise your results will merely conform to the negative expectation. Probabilities can help if you're playing in order to reach some specific goal or manage a limited bankroll, but it won't give any advantage.


    [/quote]
    Hi Mike,
    First thing first.
    1. There NO bet selection that, have EDGE.!

    Wipe this notion from your brain, we not looking for, have edge.
    Or Having ADVANTAGE,

    We look for STABLE  selection,

    AND TAKE ADVANTAGE,

    BY MANIPULATING VARIANCE,
    AND manipulating RTM, or rather...
    or RCTM,!

    And win more than losses.


    UNTIL YOU UNDERSTAND THIS FACTS, YOU WILL STILL RUNNING IN CIRCLE,
    PROCLAIMING,  the already STALE, SINCE CASINO OPEN SHOP,!!!

    @#&% MERELY conforming to HE,
     negative expectation, no advantage...bla,bla,bla

    WE NO NOT ABHORE
     ADVANTAGE, OR EDGE..
    BUT EMBRACE THEM!

    PLEASE LEARN MORE, BEFORE POSTING!!!
    !



    Offline Mike

    • Sr. Member
    • ****
    • Posts: 371
      • View Profile
    Re: Making bet selection complex doesn't help in a random game
    « Reply #46 on: August 05, 2016, 06:46:32 AM »
  • ReplyReply
  • BEAT-THE-WHEEL,

    Quote
    PLEASE LEARN MORE, BEFORE POSTING!!!

    I have a degree in math and statistics, do you?

    You can't "manipulate" variance, that's another fallacy. You can reduce variance by increasing the number of bets or betting on more numbers, but in that case your exposure to the house edge is increased. No free lunch I'm afraid.

    And what is "RTM" and "RCTM"? What is a "stable" bet selection? No bet selection can escape variance.

    You guys should really learn some basic probability and statistics before trying to BEAT-THE-WHEEL.

    Yes it's been known since casinos opened that roulette has a negative expectation. Apparently system players missed the memo about events being independent, and that this consigns all bet selections based on past spins to the trash can.


    Offline Mike

    • Sr. Member
    • ****
    • Posts: 371
      • View Profile
    Re: Making bet selection complex doesn't help in a random game
    « Reply #47 on: August 05, 2016, 07:06:35 AM »
  • ReplyReply
  • Gizmo,

    I'm well aware that I'm perceived as a naysayer on the forums, so in an effort to be constructive, I'll spare you the trouble of writing your algorithm by writing it myself, based on your 5 step procedure.

    Quote
    1.) See the existence of opportunistic coincidences.
     A.) This is done by filling in simple to observe charts while you are playing.
       a.) my charts are located all over this forum, both text examples, free software, and actual photographs of playing charts.
     B.) Visual dexterity allows the chart user to instantly see randomness characteristics.


    2.) Actually use the best occurring coincidence to make and place your bets.


    3.) Keep a mental record of steps 1 and 2's effectiveness.


    4.) Use a disciplined bet size method based on that mental record of effectiveness.


    5.) Follow steps 1 - 4 until win goal is reached.

    But it's pretty vague. In order to give the algorithm the best chance of success, please be a little more specific, or perhaps point me to some of your other posts so that I can fill in the gaps.

    Are you betting on the wheel or the layout? which bets? what counts as an "opportunity"?. Some examples would help.

    Offline Gizmotron

    • Hero Member
    • *****
    • Posts: 1519
      • View Profile
    Re: Making bet selection complex doesn't help in a random game
    « Reply #48 on: August 05, 2016, 09:27:56 AM »
  • ReplyReply

  • @ Gizmo,

    That's an oxymoron, like saying you can "read randomness". Randomness by definition can't be "read". It's absurd. Similarly, coincidence is something you can't predict. You can't "take advantage" of coincidence until it's already happened, by which time it's too late to take advantage of it.

    I get what your bet selection is attempting to do but it doesn't work. You try to catch a trend and if it doesn't work you find another one and jump on that. Rinse and repeat. Eventually you hit a nice long trend and clean up. It's not a bad idea but unfortunately the reality of randomness means that the losses you make in the many minor and failed trends will outweigh the gains made on the relatively few major trends. And again the selection is based on past spins, so the foundation is built on sand.

    So says you. I limit my losses and attack the win streaks with  much higher bets. Every time I play there are draw downs and increases that put me well into the win column. The only thing I've ever struggled with is knowing when to quit. I have a lot of experience doing this. I have a reasonable expectation of what is typical to happen. If I beat the casino in the short term at least 75% of the time then I break even as I play for the long term at worst. If I limit my losses to less than 100% of my bankroll then I can decrease my win percentage as much as 10% to 20%.  Now that starts to fall closer to the actual 61% of playing double dozens/columns to win that the mathematical statistics equate to for each spin.
    "...IT'S AGAINST THE LAW TO BREAK THE LAW OF AVERAGES." 

    Offline Gizmotron

    • Hero Member
    • *****
    • Posts: 1519
      • View Profile
    Re: Making bet selection complex doesn't help in a random game
    « Reply #49 on: August 05, 2016, 09:35:36 AM »
  • ReplyReply

  • Gizmo,

    I'm well aware that I'm perceived as a naysayer on the forums, so in an effort to be constructive, I'll spare you the trouble of writing your algorithm by writing it myself, based on your 5 step procedure.

    But it's pretty vague. In order to give the algorithm the best chance of success, please be a little more specific, or perhaps point me to some of your other posts so that I can fill in the gaps.

    Are you betting on the wheel or the layout? which bets? what counts as an "opportunity"?. Some examples would help.

    I'm willing to tutor you for a reasonable fee. It will take you less time to come up to speed than a new player. I must know what you intend to do with the  algorithm when it works in your favor as a winning method?

    Nikola Tesla gave away his patents for AC electricity to Westinghouse so that they could beat Thomas Edison. Tesla died a penniless man. I want to monetize my discoveries. I've earned it. It makes no sense to hand it over to you.
    "...IT'S AGAINST THE LAW TO BREAK THE LAW OF AVERAGES." 

    Offline 3Nine

    • Rising Member
    • **
    • Posts: 34
      • View Profile
    Re: Making bet selection complex doesn't help in a random game
    « Reply #50 on: August 05, 2016, 10:48:48 AM »
  • ReplyReply
  • Apparently system players missed the memo about events being independent.

    Hmm.

    Offline Mike

    • Sr. Member
    • ****
    • Posts: 371
      • View Profile
    Re: Making bet selection complex doesn't help in a random game
    « Reply #51 on: August 05, 2016, 11:34:57 AM »
  • ReplyReply
  • I'm willing to tutor you for a reasonable fee.

    LOL.

    Why would anyone need tutoring in order to use an algorithm?. The whole point of an algorithm is that you DON'T need "tutoring" or practice, or intuition. You just follow the procedure mindlessly.



    Offline BEAT-THE-WHEEL

    • Hero Member
    • *****
    • Posts: 506
      • View Profile
    Re: Making bet selection complex doesn't help in a random game
    « Reply #52 on: August 05, 2016, 11:40:46 AM »
  • ReplyReply
  • Hmmmmm...
    Wondering to myself, what I doing here, explaing the depth of betting , then suddenly,
    The ,the..the guy asked,
    WHAT THE #@%$#@ IS..RTM!!!!!!????

    Arrggghhhhhhh!!!!!!!
    #@#$#@%$@#!!!
    WHAT THE THE THE  ...
    OMG!
    WHAT AM I DOING HERE, ????

    #$#@#$#$@%
    don't know want to laugh, or cry out loud....
    Sheeeeeeshhhhh...

    Offline MarkTeruya

    • Steady Member
    • **
    • Posts: 89
      • View Profile
    Re: Making bet selection complex doesn't help in a random game
    « Reply #53 on: August 05, 2016, 11:45:37 AM »
  • ReplyReply
  • It's amazing those holding the codes for personal casino ATM's, go around asking others for money (no matter how hard they try and dress it), yeah that makes a lot of sense.

    If anybody had such 'codes' you would guard them securely, wouldn't sell or pass them on to anybody, other than family.  Of course the attraction of $500, is overwhelming in the grand scheme of things. 

    If people wish to share to keep everything a secret, no harm in that.  But please don't insult our intelligence by requesting money for tutoring, go make the money you need at the table, should be easy shouldn't it?       

    Offline BEAT-THE-WHEEL

    • Hero Member
    • *****
    • Posts: 506
      • View Profile
    Re: Making bet selection complex doesn't help in a random game
    « Reply #54 on: August 05, 2016, 11:50:05 AM »
  • ReplyReply
  • Halloo Mr Mike,
    With due respect,

    Since u a newbie in betting,
    I suggest u ,
    Go to Albalaha web, and read with open mind,
    Spend a few hundreds hours there, and absorb, as much,
    Gambling theory, and understand what he taught there, as u wasting your time here.

    Btw, I not selling anything, and never, and will never ask for money,
    Just love for ruolette,
    That I post here, for love of roulette. And betting theory.

    Offline Gizmotron

    • Hero Member
    • *****
    • Posts: 1519
      • View Profile
    Re: Making bet selection complex doesn't help in a random game
    « Reply #55 on: August 05, 2016, 12:34:00 PM »
  • ReplyReply
  • I mentioned only a while ago that I would be willing to tutor the once in a while person that comes along about every two months and asks me for a guided tour through my disclosed statements here at this forum. Then a few days go by and Mike comes off like this place is his personal command post. Then he tries to intimidate me into giving him all my secrets so he can write his own algorithm. Then he fails to respond to my request asking him what he would do with my secrets.


    To prove I don't need the money all I have to do is build the app and write a sophisticated tutorial that teaches and proves my concepts. I could sell it to a few people with the full knowledge that I will give it to the world for free in a short time, or I could just give it away from the start. Some of you just can't understand that I want the recognition more than I want money. I just don't want it stolen. The thought of proving so many mathematics experts wrong is quite compelling.
    "...IT'S AGAINST THE LAW TO BREAK THE LAW OF AVERAGES." 

    Offline BEAT-THE-WHEEL

    • Hero Member
    • *****
    • Posts: 506
      • View Profile
    Re: Making bet selection complex doesn't help in a random game
    « Reply #56 on: August 05, 2016, 12:35:26 PM »
  • ReplyReply

  • RTM

    for the newbies,
     who want to understand,
     what is RTM,
    and VARIANCE,
    let me try to explain in simple example.
    =======================

    RTM=regression toward mean.
    Variance =the losing hit keep coming,
    while the winning seem stubborn to hit.
    ==========

    RTM.
    oversimplified example..

    lets play a game.

    Say, inside a bag,
     there 50red and 50black
     ping-pong balls.

    You take out,draw,
    one ball at a time,
    and NOT putting back the ball,
     into the bag.
    You cast the ball away.
    u set aside the ball.

    Then, everytime u take a ball out,
     u note down, the color of the ball,
    on a piece of paper.

    After 100th ball ,
       taken out,
    you will see that,

    if red value=1,
    black=-1,

    simply mean,
    red, u win,
    black , u lose.
     

     At the 100th ball,
    the result,
    win/lose =ZERO value,
    no win, no lose,

    and

    the probability of,
     WORST VARIANCE,

    =-50 NEGATIVE,
    streak of 50losses.

    OR,
    =+50 POSITIVE...variance...
    streak of 50wins...


    No matter, whether,
     you win,
     best profit=+50,

    or lose ,
    worst losses=-50,

    at the end, the 100th ball,
    the value will,
     return to mean=0.

     The 50red/50black balls-in-bag,
    is a 'FIXED' with no EDGE game.
    The best win possible=+50,
    and worst possible=-50,

    if you CHART the profit/loss,
    as a single LINE chart,
    from 1st ball, to the 100th ball,
    and after many sets of games,
    u will see the line move up and down,
    and the LAST profit/loss=0value,
    that REGRESSION TO MEAN.

    RCTM,
    mean ,
    regression CLOSER to mean,

    the end line of profit loss,
    due to unlimited 'balls',
    and EDGE, and variance,
    and unlimited spins,
    only come close to zero,
    as a probability.

    Offline MarkTeruya

    • Steady Member
    • **
    • Posts: 89
      • View Profile
    Re: Making bet selection complex doesn't help in a random game
    « Reply #57 on: August 05, 2016, 12:41:56 PM »
  • ReplyReply
  • Halloo Mr Mike,
    With due respect,

    Since u a newbie in betting,
    I suggest u ,
    Go to Albalaha web, and read with open mind,
    Spend a few hundreds hours there, and absorb, as much,
    Gambling theory, and understand what he taught there, as u wasting your time here.

    Btw, I not selling anything, and never, and will never ask for money,
    Just love for ruolette,
    That I post here, for love of roulette. And betting theory.
    What are you smoking over there?  Alibhaha's site  ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D  hilarious.
    I gambling for a living mat8, I've been around the forums since 2004, far from a newbie sunshine.

    It's also spelt roulette, not ruolette.

    Offline MarkTeruya

    • Steady Member
    • **
    • Posts: 89
      • View Profile
    Re: Making bet selection complex doesn't help in a random game
    « Reply #58 on: August 05, 2016, 12:48:11 PM »
  • ReplyReply
  • I mentioned only a while ago that I would be willing to tutor the once in a while person that comes along about every two months and asks me for a guided tour through my disclosed statements here at this forum. Then a few days go by and Mike comes off like this place is his personal command post. Then he tries to intimidate me into giving him all my secrets so he can write his own algorithm. Then he fails to respond to my request asking him what he would do with my secrets.
    That's your interpretation, if you had any valuable secrets, you wouldn't be auctioning them around for $500.  We both know you're probably broke, in need of cash and you can't do what you're trying to teach, but no worries I've met loads just like you in casinos, too far gone with their beliefs.  If it works, good luck go and make some money, quit wasting your time phishing for an unintelligent to give you $500.

    Quote
    To prove I don't need the money all I have to do is build the app and write a sophisticated tutorial that teaches and proves my concepts. I could sell it to a few people with the full knowledge that I will give it to the world for free in a short time, or I could just give it away from the start. Some of you just can't understand that I want the recognition more than I want money. I just don't want it stolen. The thought of proving so many mathematics experts wrong is quite compelling.
    Whatever.

    Offline Gizmotron

    • Hero Member
    • *****
    • Posts: 1519
      • View Profile
    Re: Making bet selection complex doesn't help in a random game
    « Reply #59 on: August 05, 2016, 01:03:13 PM »
  • ReplyReply

  •  That's your interpretation, if you had any valuable secrets, you wouldn't be auctioning them around for $500.  We both know you're probably broke, in need of cash and you can't do what you're trying to teach, but no worries I've met loads just like you in casinos, too far gone with their beliefs.  If it works, good luck go and make some money, quit wasting your time phishing for an unintelligent to give you $500.
     Whatever.

    Charging a person $15 per hour for my time, and what I get out of it is my business. Needing you to understand it or to make sense of it is my gift to myself. I don't care if experts like you are forever seen as getting it completely wrong, even when it has successfully been placed write underneath your noses. I've clearly disclosed my secrets here. Yet there are still a vast majority of people here that won't see it. I knew this would be the case. That's why I hid it all in plain sight. I guess it's time to embarrass the so called enlightened.


    Perhaps I can have it ready for my own October surprise.





    "...IT'S AGAINST THE LAW TO BREAK THE LAW OF AVERAGES."