My viewpoint of using Regression towards Mean to avoid extreme variance

Albalaha · August 13, 2019, 06:59:33 AM

Well,
I know that no amount of trigger changes/affects the future probabilities. However, we can avoid betting in the worst of the worst possible cases with a trick or trigger that I use for long.

For instance, my bet is an EC bet, I wait for a trigger of 5 or more successive losses followed by a win and a loss thereafter. like

LLLLLLLLWL

How does it help?
It gets me not bet for a very bad stretch of successive no hit of an EC be it 5 losses or 25 losses. Secondly, my trigger makes me bet only two bets every time, irrespective of both being wins or losses or one each.

So, in a case like
LLLLLLLLLWLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLW

I get only LL as my effective bet and I will resume my betting on another trigger like that.
So, I can lose only in cases where one extreme bad stretch is immediately followed by another bad/very bad stretch. However, I will miss all chances like LLLLLLLLLWWWWWW. However, I can afford to miss such chances for the sake of avoiding extreme variance against my bet.
To be continued further...........................

Albalaha · August 14, 2019, 04:05:20 AM

My point for such triggers is to avoid cases where losses are pouring in out of proportion. I know that even my trigger in not absolute way to filter out all kinds of horrible stretches, for sure but I know losing only twice in cases like LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLWLLLLLLLLLLL can not be termed bad, by any parameter. I even know that I can get many LLs even with this filter but they are still better than playing all over in all those cases. I am still saving on 5-6 extra losses. I am going to lose only twice even if it is a stretch of 50 losses in a row. What is your take on this?

To be continued ahead:

Albalaha · August 15, 2019, 06:07:04 AM

When a storm hits with full intensity, it takes away even large trees and houses but small grasses go flat and defend themselves wisely. Negative variance is the biggest defender of casinos. It is a must to have one strategy that let's us survive even after the worst possible hits.

My viewpoint of using Regression towards Mean to avoid extreme variance

Albalaha

Albalaha

Albalaha