Prepare for long run and you are a winner in spite of the house edge of casino

BetSelection.cc

Please login or register.

Topic: Prepare for long run and you are a winner in spite of the house edge of casino  (Read 786 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Albalaha

  • Moderator
  • *****
  • Posts: 1884
  • Gender: Male
  • Learn about randomness before trying to fight that
    • View Profile
The rotten debate or whining over house edge are not my cup of tea. Those who feel that the game is not beatable or worth earning are only myopic in my humble knowledge. Pressing on old world ideas to earn from casino will get one nowhere, that is for sure.

To win, in a game of roulette or baccarat or anything alike you need to understand this fact:
   Anything is possible in short run but in long run, things will be closer to the average expectancy.

    IF we understand and agree over this, what we should do are:
a) do not try to predict for short run
b) do not try any silly progression meant for a short run of play as it is exactly what kills you and throws you out of casino.  Idiotic hyper
    progressions killed more gamblers than road accidents. avoid them to survive for long.
c) since short run is very volatile, you need to have ample chips to keep on playing.
d) since you can neither predict as to what will you get while playing and house edge and variance both can keep you behind the house,
    do not dream of winning flat either.

House edge doesn't kill by their own. If you know that a single number of say European roulette has to hit within 37 or even 39 spins, you can plan to beat that easily but even after knowing the same hit of 1000 times in say 37,000 or even 39,000 spins, you get confused. Uneven scatter of hits, fistful of chips, brain full of greed and silly progressions together kill you.

Just think over long run and make a plan to play their, nothing kills you and you can earn some money.
Email: earnsumit@gmail.com - VIsit my blog: http://albalaha.lefora.com


Offline Mike

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 370
    • View Profile
Sure, the answer is just the right progression.  :zzz:

Offline alrelax

  • B&M Player since 1980
  • Administrator
  • *****
  • Posts: 3523
  • Gender: Male
  • 'Caring for Kids' Nonprofit Children's Assistance
    • View Profile
The rotten debate or whining over house edge are not my cup of tea. Those who feel that the game is not beatable or worth earning are only myopic in my humble knowledge. Pressing on old world ideas to earn from casino will get one nowhere, that is for sure.

To win, in a game of roulette or baccarat or anything alike you need to understand this fact:
   Anything is possible in short run but in long run, things will be closer to the average expectancy.

    IF we understand and agree over this, what we should do are:
a) do not try to predict for short run
b) do not try any silly progression meant for a short run of play as it is exactly what kills you and throws you out of casino.  Idiotic hyper
    progressions killed more gamblers than road accidents. avoid them to survive for long.
c) since short run is very volatile, you need to have ample chips to keep on playing.
d) since you can neither predict as to what will you get while playing and house edge and variance both can keep you behind the house,
    do not dream of winning flat either.

House edge doesn't kill by their own. If you know that a single number of say European roulette has to hit within 37 or even 39 spins, you can plan to beat that easily but even after knowing the same hit of 1000 times in say 37,000 or even 39,000 spins, you get confused. Uneven scatter of hits, fistful of chips, brain full of greed and silly progressions together kill you.

Just think over long run and make a plan to play their, nothing kills you and you can earn some money.

Depends what side of the spectrum you're reading this post from,  from my side and how I play as he said in number 2, idiotic hyper!  Spot On!! :thumbsup:

And I sincerely appreciate this because I like to read how everybody thinks, no matter if I respond or anyone responds.

But I'll tell you what, the real money is in the extreme short-term but of course you got to play to win and looking at the tables and looking at the time to go, you ain't going to win. That's the flip side.

As well.  Theory might be right in trial, but in real play, imo, theory is a serial killer of the worst kind!
My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

Played a minimum of 24,000 (Plus) shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

"Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

Offline BEAT-THE-WHEEL

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 460
    • View Profile
Dear Albalaha,
With respect,

How long is long run closer to average expectancy?

I read somewhere,in your threads, it 3700spins for european roulette?
Thanks.

Offline 8OR9

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 102
    • View Profile
1. "In the long run, we are all dead"   John Maynard Keynes

2. If you think that everything "evens out" in the long run, if you flip a coin 10,000 times,  I will bet anyone that it will not end up 5,000 heads and 5,000 tails.

Offline BEAT-THE-WHEEL

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 460
    • View Profile
8OR9,
In the long run, everything may smothen within probability expectation, thus we bet the bias, after it happen, hoping for it to catch up.
if you can't wait long run,
Then you have 3 options,

1. Look for shorter run that less fluctuate,  or stable, with progression to boot.

2. Forget gambling, go do honest job.

3. Bet the run run.

Flipping tossing for long run, will not hit exact 50%, it may or may not hit within math.
Thus, you need to have a stable method.
What Albalaha mean, is everthing in long run, will hit WITHIN MATH EXPECTATION.

If we can't accept this, then choose option 2.

Offline BEAT-THE-WHEEL

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 460
    • View Profile
Thus, except heavily tilted wheel, or cheating RNG,

 straight numbers, eu, 37x100spins=3700spin,
mathwise have 100hit expectation,
 the worst, if you research , may only hit 60hit/3700spins.
If  if see few number sleep for, or only hit once or twice in, say 500spins,
Then you bet them for next 2500spins, and you bet 2 or 3, or 4 numbers at the same time,
With variance-avoidance strategy, and progression, you may produce profit.

Offline Albalaha

  • Moderator
  • *****
  • Posts: 1884
  • Gender: Male
  • Learn about randomness before trying to fight that
    • View Profile
@BTW,
       Long run means a period enough to bring the outcomes near average or slightly tilted from there only. A slight shift from average should always be expected as getting exact average might not be seen even in a million outcomes. I take 2000 spins/hands enough for an even money bet and 74000 spins for a single number of European roulette.

@8OR9,
              I hope you must have understood what I want to say. Getting near average is different from getting exactly at that. Regression towards mean is the real term. Also remember that if there are some very bad patches in the beginning of any bet, it might get never compensated. Do not expect that ever. That is fallacious.


Quote
Sure, the answer is just the right progression.  :zzz:

@Mike,
            The answer lies in understanding the probability up to the exteme and be ready to face all of them, well in advance.
A money management is essential to handle these. Sadly, most people look at age old ideas to pick from. None of the classic failure progressions will help you. They are all myopic and meant for small sessions only.

Wishful thinking of winning flat bet will never help. You can not pick the best bet by any methodology. The sooner you learn this lesson, will be better for you.

@Alrelax,
               Idiotic hyper progressions look rewarding but are fatal. Actually, progressions work in direct proportion to chance of losing all. You win pretty fast with it until you lose back all. Take classic martingale for that manner, it wins one unit easily till it gives back all in just one bad stretch. Casino would love to see a player using marty. He ensures the slowest win and the fastest loss.
Email: earnsumit@gmail.com - VIsit my blog: http://albalaha.lefora.com

Offline BEAT-THE-WHEEL

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 460
    • View Profile
Dear Albalaha,
With Respect,
Thank you so much for your thought.

2000spins for EC is manageable,
But 74000spins for single number is too long for bm bet.

If 2000spins for EC,
Imho,
We wait for virtual losses for say, 500 spins, where very extreme variance formed,
Then bet 1u for 2nd 500spins, then 2u for 3rd 500spins, then 4u for last 500spins, stop at positive.

Of course, extreme variance management applied too.

Thanks.

Offline Albalaha

  • Moderator
  • *****
  • Posts: 1884
  • Gender: Male
  • Learn about randomness before trying to fight that
    • View Profile
@BTW,
          Waiting for a very bad stretch could only guarantee avoiding the worst  stretch.  It can not guarantee a good one ahead. What 
we actually need to learn is to survive the worst than avoiding them. Waiting for something to happen to start playing is not so wise.
Email: earnsumit@gmail.com - VIsit my blog: http://albalaha.lefora.com

Offline BEAT-THE-WHEEL

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 460
    • View Profile
Dear Albalaha,
You mean we need a very efficient progression strategy to survive the worst possible?

And you have this strategy?

Thanks.

Offline Albalaha

  • Moderator
  • *****
  • Posts: 1884
  • Gender: Male
  • Learn about randomness before trying to fight that
    • View Profile
We can easily formulate a strategy that goes according to the number of wins and losses. Instead of pushing too hard in the worst times, do the opposite. Strike when iron is hot.
Email: earnsumit@gmail.com - VIsit my blog: http://albalaha.lefora.com

Offline BEAT-THE-WHEEL

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 460
    • View Profile
a strategy that goes according to the number of wins and losses.

How?

Offline Albalaha

  • Moderator
  • *****
  • Posts: 1884
  • Gender: Male
  • Learn about randomness before trying to fight that
    • View Profile
Usually we push harder while losing again and again. We need to check that first. Since we can not predict the start or end of a bad phase, what we usually do is to push to win. such abrupt pushes kill us faster. So, we need to have an MM that takes care of extremes without going too deep ever. Remember, there are such bad stretches that can't be overcome by increasing bets, even if you have millions of chips.
Even forgetting extraordinary losses, instead of pushing to win them back helps.
        We just need to pre-define them and stick to that strictly.
Email: earnsumit@gmail.com - VIsit my blog: http://albalaha.lefora.com

Offline BEAT-THE-WHEEL

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 460
    • View Profile
we need to have an MM that takes care of extremes without going too deep ever
This quote worth millions,
isn't this mean stop betting when facing losing sequence, till virtual hit to resume....?