"Whatever you can do, or dream you can, begin it.  Boldness has genius, power and magic in it"  Goethe.

"Only those who will risk going too far can possible find out how far it is possible to go"  T.S. Elliot.

"What you have to do and the way you do it is incredibly simple.  Whether you are willing to do it is another matter.  Peter Drucker.

"Take risks: If you win, you will be happy: if you lose, you will be wise".  Anonymous.

"The greatest danger for most of us is not that our aim is too high and we miss it, but that it is too low and we reach it".  Michelangelo.

"You don't lead by pointing and telling people some place to go.  You lead by going to that place and making a case".  Ken Kesey.

"Vision is the art of seeing things invisible".  Jonathan Swift.

"People only see what they are prepared to see".  Ralph Waldo Emerson.

"In order to be a realist, you must believe in miracles".  David Ben Gurion.


I will write 4 parts to this thread.  They will be:

Part 1:  H-Money texted me last night at midnight after promising me he would not go to the casino and wait for Friday night.

Part 2:  Bank-Roll, Buy-In & Wagering.  Reality with safety and comfort.

Part 3:  What I wager & Risk, most times.

Part 4:  Vision--Pressures & Psych.


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And as I drive to my business this morning, instead of sunshine and bright skies, this is what I was faced with as I dwelled in H-Money's text's from last night and his devastating loss:

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And, I spent a good hour with him on the phone last night explaining why I would not go to the casino until Friday and just stay home--please!  I was cooking a pizza from scratch, and preparing to watch the classic movie 'Speed'.  Here is a pic of the pizza just before adding the garlic and seasoning on top and getting it under the broiler for 3 min's to finish it up.  A beer, corn on the cob and the pizza!  Yes--it was nothing shy of great! I planned my night, stuck to it and I am not going to the casino until Friday, late night. 

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Part 1:

H-Money calls me and wants to go to the casino together.  Says he can't sleep because  he is thinking about his losses last weekend when we kind of imploded.  I told him I would not and could not go.  I know in my mind 100% what would happen and we need a few more days without the casino.  I have been doing this too long.  He tells me he understands and would not go.  I could hear in his voice, the desires and his desperate need to get whole again.  I further explain everything he did was his choice and his mistakes.  Nothing to do with the casino.  I repeat it and thought I convinced him.  Told him to come over my house and let's eat pizza together and watch some movies, he could crash out and wake up and head to work with a clear mind.  He said he was okay and would stay home.

That was all around 9PM or so.  Then about 12:30AM he texts me, he is at the casino  A bit later tells me he is down a few grand.

Calls me at 3:00AM and tells me he lost $10,000.00 of borrowed cash and  few thousand of his own money. 

6:30am is still at the casino and knows he can win back his cash.  Wants me to go there.  There is no possible way I am going into a negative, resentful, desperate scene in the pursuit to recoup lost money.  It will not work, only get yourself into a deeper and more resentful place than you stand already, far greater than 100% chances that is, probably 1,000%!  We don't borrow money from each other for gambling, I have my own and he always has his own or gets it from elsewhere.  I know he took most of his gambling bank roll the past couple of months to make payroll for his business as his business income has been really bad.

I have text him numerous times and he has not answered yet.

I got to thinking about some of the posts on the board here about bankrolls, buy-ins and wagering.  Also about some links to the 'gurus' that post their statistical garbage elsewhere about 'how to win certain amounts' based on statistical data and their testing, etc. Follow what so many 'wizards' and 'statistical gurus' say you will do--the casino will eat you up and spit you out in a heart beat.   

So I am going to offer some more reality and what has worked for myself and others.  Of course if you push it and can not control yourself, as in anything else, drinking, drugs, speeding, personal relationship jealousy, etc., etc., gambling is no different.  Because gambling actually involves more than statistical mathematical equations.  It involves, emotions, psych, vision and frame-of-mind, yes it does 100%!

Here it is, the text just came.  The exact same as someone reading how to make money playing 'such and such' a system on the internet and running to the casino and actually spending their money on it cause a 'guru' said it can be done according to the statistics, etc.

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Part 2:

Bankroll—Buy In & Relationship to Your Personal Situation

Bankrolls:  Bankroll is the amount of money you have in liquid, cash form—to gamble with.  A bankroll is separate from your buy-in amount.  Different people will certainly find varies ways to compile their own bankroll and buy in amounts. 

Personally, I have two different bank rolls for two different types of casino play.  One is for an extended period at a larger gaming jurisdictions, such as Las Vegas, Southern California or Atlantic City because those are my 'travel-to' stay a week or so, type of destinations.  Then there is my local Midwest type of place where I might go once or twice a week, usually. 

I usually keep the amount of $25k for my local bankroll and the amount of $50k for other 'travel-to' destinations.  I always replenish my bank rolls if I lose or win.  I never build my bank roll larger and larger, seeking to play at other levels.  Mainly—because I am past all that, been there and done it.  I am comfortable playing at the level and the plateaus I play at.  Anything out of that for myself, I will not perform well, feel pressure and have clouded vision.  I have written about all this stuff within my Blog or the Baccarat Room on this board. 

Yet, so many on the internet message boards all dwell on playing excessively, building their bank rolls and playing larger and larger, etc.  I find all of their talk, extremely difficult if not impossible to believe is true and what they actually do.  I know gambling, casinos and baccarat and what they claim is second nature to them is most likely what they do desire but more fiction than non-fiction. 

Lately there has been talk about 'percentages' and what should or should not be gambled, wagered and bought in with as compared to a bankroll.  I find that extremely useless myself and cannot and does not work for me or anyone of my friends that do gamble on a regular basis.  Mainly for the reason, winning is important and we score some nice wins and if we really did pay attention to percentages as a guideline, we would not realize the nice and 'great' wins we do.  However, we do incorporate a money management system into our play almost religiously which is my 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1./3rd system.  Again, I have explained this in detail and depth within my Blog and the Baccarat Room here on BetSelection. 

I do always replenish my lost funds from my Bankroll when they happen.  Usually out of win money and if I start to lose repeatedly, I slow down and replace the Bankroll through other means.  It bothers me to have a shrinking Bankroll and I do not play well when I do lose more than a few sessions without winning.  I would say that my Bankroll is just about always replenished through other wins rather than pulling money to replenish it from other means.  If I do, I would replenish that money from other wins to make myself whole. 

How do I stay whole?  I do not gamble large amounts of money the way I used to say, 15 years ago plus.  Meaning my buy-ins are much smaller than my bankroll, of course. 

Buy-In:  My local buy-in would generally be anywhere from $500.00 to $1,500.00 as a norm.  I vary depending on what I recently won and as well, how the first shoe goes as I sit down.  Also, I have to take into thought, the other players and the aura of the location as well.  I am of the extreme mind, if I win I can win.  If I lose I will lose.  I can win as easily with $1,000.00 as I can with $5,000.00 or $10,000.00.  However, I do not play for 1 or 2 or 3 or 5 units the way so many cite that they do, each and every day, each and every session, etc.  I play to win and double to triple my buy-in and then go into my money management system along with a
1 + 4 Side Parlay' 3 or 4 chance attempt with win money also.  I do risk what I buy-in with.  That works best for me and has been working great for a number of years.  I could take a $25,000.00 bank roll and buy-in 4 times at about $6,200.00 a time and have four chances to make something.  Or, I can buy-in 20-25 times at $1,000.00 or so and play the game I know will produce extreme ups and downs and really work to lock back up the buy-in and some win money, continue playing and attempt to do that several times.  But they key to doing that is the will power and the absolute walking away when you do lose.  I have it down and I seldom falter on it. 

I play at $10.00 to $25.00 tables locally and $100.00 and up outside of the Midwest.  Locally I generally start with $75.00 to $100.00 and see what happens.  At times I might wager $25.00 or $50.00 to stay in the game if not many people are playing.  But I strictly subscribe to a 1-3-2-6 or a 1-3-2-4 positive progression.  At times I will strictly parlay once or twice and let it ride once or twice as well and then pull it down.  It all depends on too many factors to list here in an article about bankrolls and buy-ins, etc.  The point is the pressure to at least double or triple my buy-in and then it becomes much easier and extremely profitable for me.  I do that well over 50% of the times I play and maybe that is why I can pull off the kind of profit I generally do at this game along with the key factor of not increasing the bankroll and playing at unrealistic limits with unrealistic desires and goals, once again IMO and experience. 

I wrote about what happened last weekend after I played 3 times during the week and won in excess of $40k and then lost $15k on Friday night and Saturday morning.  That only 100% convinces me that my way of playing is correct. 

As well, my safety and comfort is a huge contribution factor to my clear vision which is an absolute must to have the ability to see what is happening.  Not only with the shoe presentments, but also with your buy-in, winning or losing actions, etc.  IMO and experience, if you do not have safety and comfort in your gambling, you have no ability to do anything except lose your bank roll and repeatedly fail at making any kind of money from the casino.  You will be eaten alive without even knowing what had happened to yourself.  More about the other things I have mentioned other than Bankroll and Buy-ins, in Parts 3 and 4. 

Part 3:

Wagering & Risk

You have to find what fits you, your comfort and safety levels as well as your bankroll and downswings.  What works for me is what I outlined in Part 2 above. 

It is very important to me to always be conscious of the fact that losing time is coming, if I have been winning.  That is why I subscribe to my type of money management system and my '1 + 4 Side Parlay' wagers I place out of win money.  I far exceed my losses because I do not gamble all or most of my win money the way so many players do. 

I transpose my larger wagers to the sections that look great and present themselves for being favorable to me and if I start winning, I pounce on it with a very limited risk amount out of my buy-in or even out of my win money that is still on the table. 

It is of the utmost important for me to lock up my buy-in and some win money as soon as possible to allow myself the comfort and safety I need for the session to stay completely neutral and pressure-free.

As well my buy-in amount will not change anything with my lifestyle, bills, personal life or anything else financially for myself.  It does for so many players and their level of stress, pressure and everything else they carry when they play is astronomical, past comprehension. 

If I won, my money management system will allow me to stop and leave always a winner.  Before, years ago—I never had anything in place such as I do the past 15 years or so.  Once I did, my whole game has improved countless times over what it used to be. 

I really do not have a set wagering amount for anything.  I take many variables into consideration as the game/shoe progresses as to how much I will or will not wager.  Or if I will wager at all on certain hands or a section forming within the shoe.  My success/wins actually is governed by my vision and my ability to really maintain a neutral position and catch the opportunities that do present themselves for whatever reason within a shoe.

To me, there is no other way to actually play baccarat with set wagering amounts and bets based upon what has or has not happened within the shoe. 

Part 4:

Visions—Pressures & Psychology

For those of you that think there is no such factors as those I put above, are currently in fantasy land of 'I don't know where' and very oblivious to the gambling effect of winning or losing money within a casino.  Period.

With that said, I have been able to define those areas and I have written about them in detail within my Blog and the Baccarat Room here in BetSelection.

There certainly are other factors and considerations in baccarat.   But those are my main three that are within my 'intangible' and 'non-shoe/non game' category.  Hopefully you understand?  You have to function when you play, the same as you have to perform when and if you do sports.  Your body and fitness is your ammunition in sports, no?  Your brain including your sub-conscious and your conscious states (frame-of-mind, etc.) is your intangible fuel along with your body for the tangible power.  I transpose that to gambling as well. 

I have wrote about all these as well within my Blog and the Baccarat Room here on BetSelection.  But I will throw out a recap and thoughts pertaining to each.

Within my Blog on the board, at:  https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/, you will be able to read my thoughts in a series of posts I wrote, "1-10 in a Series) contained all within the first page of the highlighted section at the above link.  I am writing the below with a twist because of what happened to my buddy 'H-Money' this morning at the casino and his loss. 

Vision:  My vision focuses on what is being presented, how it is being presented and what is yet to be presented.  This more than anything else is such an important ingredient to winning at baccarat.  If you can divide up the shoe into 'sections' that will allow you to even focus greater and with more precision.  Almost every shoe will have 'sections' and 'turning points', they represent what the shoe is producing and how it was produced, both.  For whatever reason and even if I could define the reason it does not matter, if I can have the vision to identify what is happening and I wager on it—my winning wager is easily parlayed and the power and fuel I receive from something like that, is extremely intense and allows myself to pounce easily on an opportunity rather than fighting it and negatively seeing what is positively happening.  Here, in layman's terms.  I much rather have a $300.00 wager on the Banker and have it win, parlay my second one to $600.00 and have that one win also, wager $900.00 on the 3rd attempt at the Banker and stack up $300.00 back in my chip stack so I have a zero risk amount at what might happen---if I lose.  But if the Banker goes another 8 repeats I will pull down $7,200.00 rather than predicting the cut is coming and continually wagering on the Player because of the consistency of 1's, 2's and 3's as being the most favorable in baccarat, etc. and everyone else was wagering that way.  My 'vision' saw through the player and banker winning/losing hand total point values with their reductions and additions, as well as the 'sections' and 'turning points' as well as what had or had not happened, etc., etc., and with completely clear frame-of-mind, 'vision' produced a opportunity that was coming forth for presentment and I saw it. 

To go into the game with the 'vision' of winning money based upon mechanical pre-scheduled events that I learned from the statistical mathematics of the game through the internet and systems authors, I much rather be selling magical dust in a container, door-to-door with some kind of religious meaning. 

Pressure:  To have pressure from your borrowed bankroll or buy-in funds will be huge and cause you to make extremely poor decisions as well as false promises to yourself that you can make money.  Any and all pressure from personal affairs, business matters and other concerns must be checked at the door or you will be adding huge negativity to your mind-set that will affect you in horrible ways.  Simple.  Period. 

As well, you must have the comfort and safety of a bankroll and buy-in that will not matter in your life if it is lost or dwindles down.  Your buy-in, IMO and experience must be disposable and considered, viewed and handled as 'risk' capital that can be lost without any effect upon yourself for the immediate time.  The pressure and the clouded vision that will happen because you are deficient in the financial end will almost always be devastating to yourself. 

Psychology:  Not easily understood or in fact, believed by most in the gambling arena.  You sub-conscious and your conscious mind-sets are huge contributing factors to your decision making ability at the table.  Believe it or not.  If you believe something because so-and-so put a Voodoo curse at there or sprinkled magical dust on the cards or someone points to the score board and says it will be 'such-and-such' because the other side has to catch up, you are the casino's best friend and the reason they installed those large visible score boards with the multiple roads.  All you will wind up doing is catching a 'dragons tail' with 15 or so winning hands and then losing another 105 hands by following or applying your wisdom you believe you have from whatever it is caused you to win those 15 hands. 

The effect of psych has a terrific amount to do with wagering and the beliefs of a player.  Be careful and 100% conscious of what you are doing and why you are doing something when wagering. 

Here is what it looked like this morning, early--on the way into my business.  Unlike the other day where it was all gloomy and miserable.  Another 2 hours and I lock up my business and head out to the casino.

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It's a new day, it is Friday.  I spoke to H-Money and told him I will meet him at the casino in about 4 hours or so.  I called my retired New York City buddy that plays bac with me occasionally as well!  We are going to do everything we can to get H-Money's lost funds back.  No we are not chasing, we are going to smack the table, yell and scream, pump it up and do everything positive we can to 'over-power' that shoe and bang it out, BIG TIME! 

Like my man says, "U Can't Touch This".  Let's see what happens if I get an opportunity that presents itself for 10 -15 Bankers with a possible 2 or 3 F-7's in the run??  I will throw up $50.00 on all F-7 spots to get table max back on all 8 or 9 spots and $10 or $15 for each for the dealer tip.  I feel it, really do. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zSkTr4B2YnI

Well we all started out to the casino.  I come from northwest at about 80 miles away from the casino and my NYC buddy is about 10 miles sourh of me,  H-money is about 60 mies south southwest of it,  the weather turned horrible!!  Ice, hail and then a wet brezzy snow with winds up to 50mph. 

My dispatch night manager calls and tells me the state police called and said they put a wrecker ban on the interstate so that also means we are not allowed to work unless there is a incident that is impeding the flow of traffic.  We also got 2 calls for semi truck roll overs involving haz-mat and a rolled over gas tanker that has to be drilled and gas tranfered to another tanker before the heavy wreckers are allowed to upright it. 

I called h-money and told him welcome to my world this weekend.  Always a bad storm in march after all our snow and ice goes away.  The other day it was over 50 degrees.  Looks like $350k worth of work waiting.  I will pay him $30 per hour instead of the $20 hr my traffic conttol guys make.  LoL!

I just got another call, a semi with doubles trailers just ran off the interstate,  the wrecker service wants us to do the traffic control,  a quarter mile from my office,   i will look at the 'cash sitting there in the ditch' when i head in, after the ice melts from my windshield on my car warming up.

Baccarat on hold.  No doubts.

Here is what happened Friday night into Saturday.

It was pretty nice, spring time just about.  But I did say on this board that t will be one more storm still to come in March a few weeks ago, I am seldom wrong, patting myself on the back, LOL tot he max!  Pretty much the same at the bac table, unless I get stupid--and yes--I do at times!!  :nod:b

Here is what I was referring to at midnight to 2 AM on Friday-Sat.  We all went to the casino and then just about the time we were there, the storm was rolling in.  So we turned around and went home.  Then we got numerous calls about rolled over trucks with spilled haz-mat, etc.  Then the sate police called and text about no work on the highways, etc.  This went on all night.  We have so much work the next several weeks, can't see straight.  In fact, I am pulling H-money away from his business and putting his rear-end to work for me, LOL.

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Here is what it looked like this morning after a complete day of cleaning up!!

Went in this morning to clean up my office yard with a skid loader and front end loader. 
Stopped by this set of doubles with 500 gallons of fuel in the ground and got the info to get the permits to get it out and clean it up.

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A real problem to get out because  it is in a major interstate cloverleaf with 8 ramps to get on and off the I-State, it is sitting between 2 of the ramps. 

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Down the street from my house, finally able to get out of town to head to my business today!  All of our snow and ice was gone before this, it all came from 9/10PM to 4 am or so, Friday/Sat. 

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Work at 4.30 AM.   

Fixing what the motoring public thinks will never happen to them.

Text, play on the phone, drive normal when there is extreme inclement weather, makes perfect sense!!

Why else would they call it a smart phone??

H-money went 5 times to the casino since Friday's cancelled trip.  He has lost about $36,000.00 or so.  Wrong and dangerous frame of mind.  I will post some of the texts later tonight.  So wrong!!

Maybe car service for you two to meet him which will buy you time?

I have been on the interstate on complicated tractor-trailer recoveries with environmental issues concerning my company, the past several days.  I have no energy or motivation to go to     the casino until Thursday night late--or possibly Friday night.  I know the situation my buddy is in and he feels he has to get his money back from the casinos right away.  It just does not work this way.  I have repeatedly wrote about this stuff and i know what he feels, it happened to me for years in the 90's.  I have been to casinos and won $50k-$75K over $100k and gave it all back and chased the loss of my winnings with huge amounts of my own buy-in funds which is the WORST thing a gambler can do--it does not work IMO, 90% + of the times. 

Never again will that happen to me.  I messed up with H-Money there and my NYC retired buddy, and I lost $15k or so of my $40k win money from the previous 3 nights, the week before.  Not pretty.  But H-Money's was not win money and he is hurting and his business is way down and he is emotional.  Not a good combination. 

I will take some pics of the texts here in a minute from the past several days. 

Please guys---DO NOT let this happen to you---Gambling is dangerous, extremely dangerous! 

H-Money is a good player, but you have to understand the emotional, the clouded vision, the inability to play the proper way, etc., when you lose larger amount of your own money, I am not talking about $500.00 or $1,500 or $3,000.00 gambling.  I am talking about tens of thousands of dollars. 

I have said before many times, you have to have experience with losing money before you can actually win the larger amounts and play with the proper frame-of-mind, or at least know the difference with having the wrong or the correct frame-of-mind, implementing a rock-solid money management system and sticking to a lower buy-in with it being pe risk money and refusing to buy-in a second time, etc. 

Okay, here is my buddy's texts to me.  Some are very late at night and he is emotional.  He even told me he failed at everything the past couple of days.  Not good.  I can't be next to him as we live 75 miles apart and I have my own business and he does also.  He has not been gambling for a very long time and this is his largest loss of his own money.  He says he understands and he promises me that, he will stay away from the casinos, but he does not.  He always tells me when he goes and what he has lost.  His frame-of-mind will not allow him to win, I truly know what he is going through.

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The last text was meant to say., "Stay away a bit, until we go together". 

Quote from: alrelax on March 27, 2018, 10:35:44 PM
Okay, here is my buddy's texts to me.  Some are very late at night and he is emotional.  He even told me he failed at everything the past couple of days.  Not good.  I can't be next to him as we live 75 miles apart and I have my own business and he does also.  He has not been gambling for a very long time and this is his largest loss of his own money.  He says he understands and he promises me that, he will stay away from the casinos, but he does not.  He always tells me when he goes and what he has lost.  His frame-of-mind will not allow him to win, I truly know what he is going through.

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The last text was meant to say., "Stay away a bit, until we go together".

This is baccarat folks. I always keep in mind of this reminder to myself " when the water is boiling, I cannot soak my hands in it." It will burn my hands badly. Gambling is the same thing. When I am losing, I will not chase my losses. I had my fair share of losses in the last 14 years or so.

I feel sorry for your for H-Money, your buddy, and I hope he can regroup and slowly make his money back.

Best wishes to everyone!!