08 False Positives, Rumors and Just Plain Talk in Baccarat


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Topic: False Positives, Rumors and Just Plain Talk in Baccarat  (Read 312 times)

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Online alrelax

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False Positives, Rumors and Just Plain Talk in Baccarat
« on: November 12, 2018, 08:04:15 pm »
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  • False positives are killers in baccarat.  Baccarat players, at least the vast majority of them, tend to be memory bettors for what proved them correct in the immediate past or the memorable past anyway.   What this actually does, is create a false sense of what is going to happen as believed by the player, rather than maintaining a true impartial and neutral position.  In other words, the player clouds his own mind needlessly.

    I have witnessed this happen to most experienced and seasoned players for decades, everywhere I have played on a regular basis.  Problem being, the masses of players believe in a handful of believes, triggers, a method or two or three, etc.  Their vision is so small, they cannot hold up to variances appearing as they do.  Many internet message board people will claim they know how to control, recognize and handle variances.  Great, just I personally do not believe that unless those players have great losses when variances hit/appear or those same players sacrifice countless winning sessions before they actually happen for the fear of variance(s) coming out. 

    You know I have an analogy here.  I moved from the New York City metro area a while back to an extremely small town in the upper Midwest.  The house I purchased I choose to upgrade the HVAC system right away while having the entire house upgrade and redone with numerous things I desired.   There were two HVAC small businesses within the town.  I choose the one that the owner resided a block away from the house I purchased.  I later learned he was by far the higher priced one out of the two and known for, his way or no way, type of customer service, etc.  Anyway, he did the job and yes it was overpriced and outside of what he quoted me.  The kind of guy that stops half way through the job with all kinds of unknown problems found with 'extra' expensive solutions, etc.  He finished.  I paid him.  I later had a problem with his work.  I got the other guy to repair it and I was charged nothing as I later had the other HVAC company do extensive work at the commercial buildings I owned within that same town.  One day the HVAC guy that lived a block away from me stops me one morning as I am pulling past his house.  I told him exactly how I felt, how I knew he over charged me and how I thought he was the scum of the earth, etc., etc.  I smiled and said bye. 

    A couple months after that the local police knock on my door one night.  I knew the police office of course, small town, I also owned the largest towing and recovery company at the time and was used by that police department as well for towing anything that was wrecked or being impounded.  When I opened the door, I immediately pulled out my cell phone and said, what's the problem; your dispatch can't get a hold of us?  He said, no--hey that guy on the next block knows that you are throwing stuff in his driveway as he has had several food items or trash placed in his driveway and he knows you are doing it.  The police officer further goes on and explains that they could have the items analyzed for fingerprints and he knows, based upon what that guy told him, they would come back to me and I would be in real trouble.  I questioned the police officer as to what was thrown in his driveway.  He told me, the latest thing was some roast beef inside of the plastic see through bag it came in from the local supermarket.

    I told him, better do your major investigation and get some facts.  First of all, go ahead and run your fingerprints, I know it is not going to happen.  Better yet, go to the supermarket and have them pull everything bought under my points reward account, which would have every purchase we made there most likely.  Third, you are siding with a local guy you probably known your whole life and he is pissed at me for hiring the other guy that did all my commercial HVAC and plumbing stuff at the business properties.  Fourth, your buddy overcharged me and I told him so and he didn't like the way I squared off on him after he stopped me in my car a while back.  Fifth, I don't eat roast beef from the supermarket's deli counter and never bought any there. 

    So the analogy is, what do you believe?  I should not even have gone into all that with the police officer but I did.  I should have told him, go run your fingerprints and slammed the door.  But, that's not me.  I do understand why he said all that, because he believed the HVAC guy and that I was attempting to torment him and throw stuff in his driveway because that is what was told to the police office by an 'outstanding' member of the business community that was within that community a heck of a lot longer than I was, etc.  Then, I can only imagine the police officer's way of thinking was, I can tell a suspect almost anything and hopefully he will confess or curtail his actions and I solved the problem. 

    But to me, that way of thinking resembles the game of baccarat in many ways and how countless players believe what is said by others like it is and has to be the truth.  That is, with the fallacies and believes that are reasoned out, digested and taken as gospel just because they were said or thought by others.   
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