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I rather lose intelligently than win ignorantly, Billy-Bob & Emaciated Emily (Read 1825 times)

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alrelax

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That is exactly correct/spot-on.   There are many types of variances, some good, some bad, some neutral, etc.

From Gizmo:  " It's that need to make more than that that drives many gamblers to making bad risk choices. Just stay even and the good variance will come to you."

Dependent on math, dependent upon equaling out, dependent upon the many events that do frequently and as well--infrequently happen, there are all kinds of variances that produce the tangible or intangible, 'waves', 'clusters' and other 'events' that do happen during each and every bac shoe.  That is indisputable, events of some type will happen, they have to happen and there is right at 80 of them that form between 3 to 5 sections with turning points.  It is that simple. 

The tough part many can not figure out, is only because  they confuse themselves or fail to realize that 80 events will happen and form only a handful of sections the largest amount of times.



My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

Played a minimum of 24,000 (Plus) shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

"Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

soxfan

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After 5,483 bets.

I think you need to add some zero to that number, hey hey.
It's a grind, baby, but a profitable grind, hey hey.

Blue_Angel

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Thanks Mark, that's one way looking at it.


Just think for a moment, for what we can be sure?
Don't you get that deja-vu feeling every time you play at casinos?
Don't you think:"wait a minute, I saw this before..."
And this happens because it indeed happen before, so can we know tomorrow by looking on yesterday? YES!
It's not fallacious, everything which has already happened will happen again, everything is a repetition, just a matter of time before is being confirmed.
What changes then? The order of the events only.
The order is what makes deviations happen, let's say that each event is being represented by a single deck card, every time you pick one is being placed back and shuffled with the rest .
Eventually, some jacks,kings and queens will fall together and temporarily will look like they are more possible because they dominate.


Results don't change, their order changes and when we are talking about order we are talking about timing.
I don't want to go into details but a few times in the past I've revealed clues, but not all of the right ones in one place, here and there...if someone is capable to connect the dots then congratulation!
We are living in an infinite present so confine yourself in it, past and future are only perceptions, not something solid.


Everyday something new, change your selection accordingly rather than expecting the results to conform to your bet.
Money don't take decisions, but decisions make money, money is not evil, some people are, guns don't kill, some people do...all from humans for humans!

alrelax

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Beautiful thing being on and watching four Fortune sevens coming in one half of the shoe while all the other staticians and mathematical Wizards are playing one or two units for the cut it was so fantastic and I was actually thinking of you guys while every 7th to 10th hand of so, one came out and then the beautiful Fortune 7 comes out with such dominance again. It's opportunity to be capitalized on getting back $1,000 for every mear $25 you put out there. Yes it's a risk but it's a risk that's a very well rewarded with positive reinforcement instead of false reinforcement even if you take 1/4 or 1/2 of that first profit and the first F 7 and reinvest it for x amount of hands, it sure pays off that's in my opinion and only in my opinion and that's what this game is all about.
My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

Played a minimum of 24,000 (Plus) shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

"Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

Lungyeh

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Never seen this guy before. Sat down with @S$400,000 in chips and started betting S$200 on Player. If he wins he resets to 200 again n continues until he loses. If he loses he goes on a negative Martingale - 400, 800, 1600, 3200, 6400 and so on. Watched him on and off. Maximum he went to 6,400 and then the chop from Banker to Player happened and he won. Most times he stops at @50-65 hands presumably after having met his win targets.

In such situations, if there are 32 Banker decisions and say 30 Players how much did he win or lose? Or vice versa, if 32P and 30B?  If 32P and 28B and vice versa? Assuming in all shoes maximum repeats were 6x.

I suppose he chose Player because there is no commission. And his job is to choose shoes which do not repeat too long a dragon run. In this casino, most repeats at most 7-9 times which would also be very stressful if negative Martingale applied.

But he walked away a winner. So I am wondering what our forum members think of this approach.

alrelax

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You can certainly almost guaranteed when a few units if your table limits are high enough and you got a deep enough bankroll, if you're only trying for a few units sure absolutely. Question is how much are you going to risk and you got to have a high enough table limits and are you going to quit after the one or two or three units you win for whatever amount of money?  Is it worth your time and your investment in your risk and going to the casino and gambling. I rather bring $500 or a thousand or $1,500 and win my $5,000 to $25,000 several times and lose several times the buy-in.  I'm okay with that but definitely if you got high enough table limits and you're going to negative progression until you win a couple of units you're, alright you can do that.  The only question is, if you stick to that opposite side for the cut and keep negative progression wagering eventually you'll hit a time where you'll be at table Max or your limit max and you'll be betting on the wrong side how many other positive sessions making a couple units will it take to replenish all that money that you lost?

Out of my last four trips to the casino in two weeks two times, I saw multiple shoes with excess of 8 Bankers and players in a row  the other two trips for several shoes, no.  There was a Max of 6 or less several times never above six, the other two times one shoe had an 11 banker and a 13 banker and another shoe had three times in excess of seven I want to say a 9 and 10 and maybe a 12 player. So it all hinges on how deep your bankroll is and what the table limits are if you're hell-bent on the negative progression play.

1s, 2s and 3s every single shoe and fours and fives and sixes very frequently but some sections they just don't appear, 7 + repeats can be an infrequent thing or frequent thing??  Once you talking 8 or more, might or might not show up.   I've seen them every shoe I played and I've seen them without more than a six quite often, so no way to figure in my opinion.
My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

Played a minimum of 24,000 (Plus) shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

"Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

Gizmotron

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1s, 2s and 3s every single shoe and fours and fives and sixes very frequently but some sections they just don't appear, 7 + repeats can be an infrequent thing or frequent thing??  Once you talking 8 or more, might or might not show up.   I've seen them every shoe I played and I've seen them without more than a six quite often, so no way to figure in my opinion.


You just did figure it. You can have an over all global effect that repeats are occurring as imperfect yet consistent swarms. On the reverse side you can have a swarm of 1's, 2's, and 3's dominating. These conditions will come and go and they are recognizable, just as you have done. It's possible to play the Player side of the swarms of repeat streaks, keep in mind all your losses where Player ended, say 4 times. Wait, and hold them. Don't bet on the Bank streaks. Now when the over all look of what is happening changes to the look of an absence of long streaks in swarms, then run your Martingale then to get your 4 losses back. These over all trends also happen. I see it all the time in Roulette. Course I'm looking at 12 unique sets of even chance sets at a time. In Baccarat you only have 2 sets. In Blackjack you only have 1 set. But if I see them often enough in Roulette you must see these big changes in Baccarat.
"...IT'S AGAINST THE LAW TO BREAK THE LAW OF AVERAGES." 

alrelax

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And meanwhile, 'Billy Bob' and the Emaciated Emily eat at the all you can eat buffet every single weekend, two times!  Never ever stopping.  Billy Bob with his huge 18 inch high, 6 pound per plate portions and Emily with her trivial picked-apart pieces and ends of the vegetable and fruit section offerings.  While, on the other hand, the same thing goes on at the baccarat table, almost to the 't'!

 
My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

Played a minimum of 24,000 (Plus) shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

"Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

Blue_Angel

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And meanwhile, 'Billy Bob' and the Emaciated Emily eat at the all you can eat buffet every single weekend, two times!  Never ever stopping.  Billy Bob with his huge 18 inch high, 6 pound per plate portions and Emily with her trivial picked-apart pieces and ends of the vegetable and fruit section offerings.  While, on the other hand, the same thing goes on at the baccarat table, almost to the 't'!


There are all kind of strokes for all kind of folks...I know one which you get multiple strokes as you are changing BJ hands...! LOL !  ;D

Blue_Angel

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It's simple. First you must figure out what type of deviation from an understood state of normalcy is being observed. To do that you must have a way to expose the variance in a way that you can relate to it. Once you have that identified you must have a skill for dealing with it.


You play a game that is 50/50, even chance. So why not have a money management method that takes these 50/50 odds into account? I got my inspiration from the famous gambling author that suggests that an "Up & Pull" strategy, John Patrick's idea, is the way to go. Some of you here have heard that I switched to even chance bets because of my swing trading tactics of the past 6 months. I look for any coincidental trend that has not ended and speculate on it to win. I can live with 50/50 wins and losses without it killing my bankroll. I've explained for years how to do this. You must react to the only trend that matters, the effectiveness state.


So why not play a game where you only risk the first bet? That's the first bet of a 50/50 guess. Anything after a first win is only from the winnings beyond that. Here is my version of the Up & Pull: 3, 2, 3. You bet 3 units on the first bet. If you win, you pocket 1 unit and bet the remaining 2 units from the first win on the next guess. You have your bankroll money back, not being used for the next one or two bets, and you can decide when to place a next bet, and where.


So if your second bet wins, you pocket one more unit, while using the remaining three units for the last bet. If the third bet wins you have won 8 total units off of one risked bet. Now getting three in a row off of a trend happens all day long. I play a game where those 8 units is enough for the entire session. I'm playing my own human nature as a variance too. Greed and ego, the need to get back what you have lost in a session is a compelling force. I see small, swing trading opportunities, that happen all day long. If all I need to do is to win first bets, then I play a game that really concentrates on winning that first bet.(EVERY 1st BET) Anyone that plays even chance games knows that it is not that hard to stay even for a very long time. It's that need to make more than that that drives many gamblers to making bad risk choices. Just stay even and the good variance will come to you.


And about your effectiveness states, no matter if are 3 or 5, what good are they when they only come as an aftermath?!
"Oh my bet is winning, I'm doing good!" or "My bet is losing, it's in bad variance streak"...
Anyone could realize these things for any kind of bet, BUT only after it happens, so where is the value, where is the edge in your dubious "discoveries"?!

Blue_Angel

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Correct, and you do. You can code, so code it up and see for yourself.  :thumbsup:

Sorry, that's nowhere near good enough.

It's not a crutch, it's a fact. And the house edge isn't an insurmountable obstacle ; it can be overcome. But what is the edge which allows you to overcome it? Let's have a calculation from YOU since you're the one who claims you have it.


Mike has the indisputable edge which, as weird as it might sound, can scan 8 wheel-pockets per second with his super-bionic laser eyes!!!  :o :applause: 8)  Strange but true!

Gizmotron

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And about your effectiveness states, no matter if are 3 or 5, what good are they when they only come as an aftermath?!
"Oh my bet is winning, I'm doing good!" or "My bet is losing, it's in bad variance streak"...
Anyone could realize these things for any kind of bet, BUT only after it happens, so where is the value, where is the edge in your dubious "discoveries"?!


Great! You have asked the question that all my assumptions and humble revelations are being expressed for in the first place. I have been sharing my expertise just to get to your question. Some of you know that I used to play for 300 spin sessions. I did that allot. All that play has taught me to see things from the bigger picture. You can't see a trend if you are just saying the result of one spin is your reference. But you can play at a casino knowing that the general over all effect of your play will pass through valleys and hills. My edge is in knowing that conditions will fluctuate up and down over time. How do I know this? It's what I always experience when I play. Each session has it's own unique experience. I play a game where my bankroll allows me to follow the terrain, no matter what the conditions are. My edge is knowing that if I wait for it I will pass through a valley with minimum bet sizes and that later will transition into a peak where I use my high end flat bet prices. It's just a matter of time. Math and statistics are still the rulers of the universe. They just don't matter. They don't cause valleys and peaks to occur and they don't prevent them from happening either.


I hope you can see that trends, super duper characteristics, don't matter either. I look for peaks in 12 different sets of 18 numbers. I moved on from dozens where I have 12 sets of those too. I ride the peaks and try to pay the least in the valleys. That's my edge. Those terrains are real. They exist and they all have duration that can be confirmed by betting on them. You say everything is in the past. The next bet is not the past. You say I have no edge. Big deal. So I don't have an edge. That's just you saying it. You can make it an act of congress. I don't really care much. I know when I'm in a valley and I know when I'm on a peak. Another point is that knowing and controlling when you quit is also an edge. I believe the stop point is in the hands of the player and that it is an advantage.
"...IT'S AGAINST THE LAW TO BREAK THE LAW OF AVERAGES." 

Gizmotron

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The "Edge" test:


1. Can you tell if you are free falling straight down, losing every bet, in a gambling session?


2. Can you tell if you have won every bet in the past 10 bets in a session?


3. Can you tell if you have won more than you have lost in the past 10 bets during a session?


4. Can you tell everyone that you can answer 1, 2, and 3 truthfully?


5. Can you admit that 1, 2, and 3 are questions about basic skill?


6. Can you put your head in a can and stand that 1, 2, and 3, can't be known?


If you can't answer questions 1, 2, and 3 then you really don't have an edge.



"...IT'S AGAINST THE LAW TO BREAK THE LAW OF AVERAGES." 

Blue_Angel

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Great! You have asked the question that all my assumptions and humble revelations are being expressed for in the first place. I have been sharing my expertise just to get to your question. Some of you know that I used to play for 300 spin sessions. I did that allot. All that play has taught me to see things from the bigger picture. You can't see a trend if you are just saying the result of one spin is your reference. But you can play at a casino knowing that the general over all effect of your play will pass through valleys and hills. My edge is in knowing that conditions will fluctuate up and down over time. How do I know this? It's what I always experience when I play. Each session has it's own unique experience. I play a game where my bankroll allows me to follow the terrain, no matter what the conditions are. My edge is knowing that if I wait for it I will pass through a valley with minimum bet sizes and that later will transition into a peak where I use my high end flat bet prices. It's just a matter of time. Math and statistics are still the rulers of the universe. They just don't matter. They don't cause valleys and peaks to occur and they don't prevent them from happening either.
I hope you can see that trends, super duper characteristics, don't matter either. I look for peaks in 12 different sets of 18 numbers. I moved on from dozens where I have 12 sets of those too.


You are relating irrelevant elements, numbers in your case, for example when we see 3 times in a row for a dozen that possibly was 3 different numbers which have not any connection other than that someone has put them together in a group of 12 numbers named dozen.
So if you see number 12 as last spun number does 11 becomes more possible as upcoming result just because is standing next to it?
Or does 35 becomes less likely to come because it's High,Black and Odd number while 12 is Low,Red and Even?
But don't blame yourself, this is a common fallacy being perpetuated by the casinos which originally created and offered such bets as EC's, dozens, columns, lines...etc
Numbers ARE related, but the conditions which are "connecting" them have nothing to do with the table's and/or wheel's layout.



I ride the peaks and try to pay the least in the valleys. That's my edge. Those terrains are real. They exist and they all have duration that can be confirmed by betting on them. You say everything is in the past. The next bet is not the past. You say I have no edge. Big deal. So I don't have an edge. That's just you saying it. You can make it an act of congress. I don't really care much. I know when I'm in a valley and I know when I'm on a peak. Another point is that knowing and controlling when you quit is also an edge. I believe the stop point is in the hands of the player and that it is an advantage.


Anyone can decide when to start and stop betting, but when you don't know, not if there are, but how long are the "peaks & valleys" then it's of no use to us.
You are like an after Jesus Christ prophet in my eyes! 8)

Gizmotron

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I get it. You can't relate to peaks and valleys in sessions. So go with that. Tell yourself he can't win. He has no edge. He's full of BS. Put it all together how smart you are and how unintelligent He is. It's a great world. Everyone should have their own "come to Jesus" moment.


I of course I get to wear my 666 T-shirt and make total fools of the mathBoyz every time I predict the future.
"...IT'S AGAINST THE LAW TO BREAK THE LAW OF AVERAGES."