(This post is dedicated to AysmBac. I sat down with lots of coffee and attempted to explain, 'Defining events that will and do frequently happen in baccarat and why I wager with them or against them. I am naming my most frequent ones.)
A benefit can also be a liability or a benefit that, carries some significant but not so obvious, cost or risk.
Read it. Read it and read it. That is baccarat. There is no wagering that cannot be a risk, period. Once you think you have no risk, you will lose any edge and advantage you may really have.
Deciphering the waves, they do exist.
It is just that we do not know the order of the waves that the she will produce. If you think you do and all your testing, graphs, charts and membership circles of other professional players, have told you what they are—your bankroll will disappear. Be careful, be smart and realize that there is actually some hidden and not published knowledge to this game. Not voodoo, but real characteristics that will present themselves as well as disappear. That is why you need to be extremely clear-minded and able to ‘reset and refresh’ yourself on a constant and repetitive manner when playing baccarat.
Numbers. Numbers will tell you a lot in the game of baccarat. Numbers and several years of play will generally not allow you to realize what I am about to say here. You can believe it or not, totally up to you because it is your money. Just, when you walk out of the casino and lost, just remember there might, just might—be a bit more to baccarat than you thought. So, you can; 1) Disbelieve it; or 2) You can shrug your shoulders and call me “terminally stupid—pissant or a friggin unintelligent”; or 3) Believe it; or the only other thing left you can do is; 4) Be neutral and check it out.
The shoe is infinite, it does not carry over from shoe to shoe to shoe and one continuous game as so many think and say it does. A shoe of about 80 hands can only make so many events, combinations, waves, winning and losing hands, etc. So in reality, one shoe of baccarat in the USA will make right around 80 hands, or 160 if you view each side as a numbered result.
I like to give the following example of a baccarat shoe and what it can do. Which is the same as going to the beach on various days and observing the waves as they come into the shoreline (the beach). Smooth, rough, high, low, equaling out, the same for a while, abruptly being different and varying greatly, etc., etc., etc. and so on. At 9 AM the waves will be different than they generally are at 1 PM and again at 2 AM later on, as well as the same time the following day. At times they will certainly look the same as well, at other times completely opposite. But, the beach and the people are still there, just adapting to the waves in different ways depending on the volatility of the waves and the person’s ability to subject themselves to them.
Reality with various manifesting phenomena mixed in. That is baccarat.
So many say, “What has already happened is past, it has no bearing on what will happen”. That is true to a certain extent, but what has happened needs to be considered within your vision because the shoe you are playing out is finite and only so many things can or will happen. Misinterpreting and alienating yourself from what I am attempting to lay out, will not open your vision or allow yourself to be in the proper frame-of-mind.
Presentments of general characteristics of a section being dealt---in the process---currently happening in front of you, is what you need to attempt understanding of and what is also possible to happen. And, don’t let prediction become fallacy, as well—don’t let fallacy become prediction for yourself. Remember reality and stay in it.
After you read through the following, make sure to grasp the paragraph below with the word “Differentiate” in bold letters! Some of my identified and stringer presentments that have served me well.
Additions and Reductions, on 3 card draws. As soon as one side begins to get additions, particularly the player side and the banker side is reduced by its 3rd card—be alert for that event to continue. Once it happens a 2nd time in a row—particularly within the first half of the shoe or the middle section, it might favor the continuance of doing that numerous times. Likewise a reduction to the players side and the banker winning with the first 2 cards or the third card that increases. However, IMO and experience the first one is usually stronger overall and continues longer.
6/7’s & 8’s/9’s. Without anything else, I have found that 1 point wins and 1 point losses for both hands, tends to lend itself to the worst rationalization of what the next hand will bring, more often than not. As well as any other numbers that prevail and lose this is the worst that brings total randomness, continuance and any other chain of events that almost no one can profit off of.
Naturals-alternating. An event exists to be exploited when alternating naturals appear frequently. Naturals have a huge tendency to ‘WOW’ the players and they convince themselves that the side just got ‘strong’ and aggressively wager the same side that the natural just prevailed on. However, naturals are frequent and have a tendency to bounced or alternate back and forth for a short event more often than not, especially when the ‘-‘ or ‘+’ is close together.
Naturals. When one side is producing naturals over the other side’s 6-7 or 8's and winning—it is an event that can be exploited frequently. Meaning, for example, P has 6 and B has 7, then P has a N8 and B had a N9, etc., or the opposite.
Fortune 7’s (3 card Banker winning 7’s, 40:1). Zero to low ties. Within the first 10 hands. And hands 16-23. Those are the most frequent events when the shoe produces the F-7 hand. Frequently shoes have 1 or 2 F-7’s. Some shoes have none. If a 3rd F-7 does appear, generally there is a 4th. 5 and 6 F-7’s are a bit infrequent or rare but do occur. Or, should I say you will not generally see that in every other shoe or every third shoe, etc. By the way, the reason there are more F-7’s in the beginning of the shoe than elsewhere and on a more frequent basis is the number of cards in the shoe of course. Frequently there are many 10’s that form the first 3 or 4 cards dealt and then a larger card reducing the players side ‘under 6’ or remaining at 6 and drawing an Ace through a 7 to make the 3 card 7 on the Banker side, etc.
-10/+10/+20. Frequently the total count will hover around ‘-‘ or ‘+’ 10 somewhere between hand 15 and midway or so. And then favor the deficit side in smaller hit rates for its attempt to “catch-up”. It happens and happens repeatedly. Much rarer an event, one side will continue to +20 and continue to rise. Infrequent by far. I have only witnessed a handful of shoes be able to provide the + side that was already well over +15, say +17 to +20 or so and then produce a streak on top of that. Depending on how far into the shoe it is, the deficit side usually (USUALLY) makes a pretty good attempt to “catch-up” to the other side. The key thing in this event as I have found, is the deficient side will usually ‘catch-up’ in a slow grind by not allowing the + side to streak or repeat as it was previously. Depending on the hand of the shoe, I have done extremely well and won larger wagers based on these events siding with the ‘-‘ or the ‘+’ of a side to win or lose.
Equaling Out. The highest numbers of shoes will equal out in how many winning hands each side ended up with and if not equal, within 3 to 5 of each other as next most favorable. An event to be exploited along the shoe after the first 1/3rd of the shoe, many times. If not, after the midway or 60% point. Another easy exploit that comes along frequently is when it is within 1 or 2 of each other. Example, 27-28, then 28-28, then 28-29, then 29-29, then 30-29, etc. That event to me has won many a large wager, the same as a streak of any one side continuing.
½ Way to End of Shoe. More often than not, when the first half of the shoe was ‘strong’, frequently repeating B’s and P’s and other distinctive continuing trends that formed, the second half is one to be extremely careful of it continuing. Sure, great if it does. But when you play long enough, this is one of the easiest and most profitable events that can be exploited big time for it to be almost the opposite of the first half.
Alternating & 2’s. No rhyme or reason, nothing I have ever found that will point to the successful and continued outcome of chops and/or 2’s. If they appear within a section they can be exploited as it is an event that frequently happens.
Being there when it is happening. Consciousness, frame-of-mind and wide & clear vision. I have wrote about all this in other threads. Most of all, reality. Stay in reality while being in ‘La La land’ and ‘Dreamsville’. Hard to do at times, but you must.
You don’t have to wager or count on these events to happen. But they do happen and when it is not streaking 10 or 15 or 19 of one side, the shoe is presenting other things or ‘events’. And these are what I found over the many years I have played this game.
What you have to do, I do—is put yourself into the wholeness the shoe is presenting and divide it up into sections. Interpret it as ‘waves’ with some type of volatility that will happen or like a tree with its branches. But continuously go back with your vision each hand and do not forget the main stream is just the tree trunk.
Experience is vital. Without it—you are basically at the table’s mercy, the mercy of the aura of the surrounding you are in and the mercy of the other players as well. Don’t say that those are not powerful, as the most certainly are! Again--reality!
Example, when you see someone win thousands of dollars in a couple of hands—you will be drawn to that individual’s wagering results, which was, he won! You most likely will follow him and then he loses. Welcome to the game of baccarat.
Being able to differentiate what is happening as it is happening. Ask yourself, what is different or making it different. A lot of times there is just that lurking there without anyone noticing. You have to be able to classify the make ups of the hands presenting themselves as, strong—weak or neutral or balancing out. Those 4 things will lead and control each section in one way or another. And do not view 80 hands as 1, you have to divide the shoe up into 3 to 5 sections as the majority of the times that is better representing what is happening and forming, rather than 20 or 30 or 40 hands ago, etc. You should only be concerned in a ‘section’, not looking at what happened back in the beginning, remember that.
More often than not (by far) a section of 15-20 hands is far greater representative of itself than outside of its section. Presentment, Reality & Actual Events.
Nothing is 100% indicative that anything will continue or happen. But be aware and let your vision go either way, with or against, ready to stack it up and pounce on it or go wait a section out. You better maintain complete visual and ‘aura’ consciousness, the correct frame-of-mind and keep saying the word, ‘reality’.