Randomness, Equality, Equaling Out--Bias

Whatever you want to call it or label it.  Take 80 + - hands in a shoe of baccarat and without something of random events from happening, there would be either all Bankers all Players or a perfect alternating chop-chop of Banker then Player for the entire shoe.  I have played the game of baccarat for well over 35 years and the only thing I ever saw that even came close was 3 shoes of thousands and thousands and thousands of shoes.  One shoe had the entire shoe of Banker-Player chop-chop alternating hands with some ties in it, from start to finish.  The other shoe had all doubles in it from start to finish except one 3 which I think was 3 Bankers in a row.  The last one was a shoe without ties in it, no ties not even one, which was only good for those of us who don't wager for the tie.  But those are the only 3 shoes with the whole shoe being something  with no random acts so to speak that I ever saw.  But, there certainly is varying types of randomness with each shoe of baccarat and at most times, the randomness throws almost every player off their desired result.  That is the problem. 

This is where the largest part of the wagering aspect of 'technical and strategy' comes into play.  With agreement or without agreement.  Second to none.   Randomness either makes it easy or makes it harder, depending on what you need to match your wagering plan and decisions. 

While anything is possible in a shoe of baccarat the majority of times there are spikes with anywhere up to an abundance or a lack of clear patterns and trends  for sake of having to give a label to describe what I am talking about referring to such results as Bankers and Players, Singles, Doubles, 1's, 2's and 3's, Naturals that cut or stick, Ties that cut or stick, etc., etc., and so on.   With my comment, anything is possible , possible does not mean equaling or evening out, it does not mean producing something, it just means anything and everything  with no rhyme or reasoning or continuing or a set discontinuance of a pattern or trend, or any event that you can follow or go against-doesn't matter, whatever you want to term it. 

Many play the catch up game  throughout the shoe-meaning, one side is behind a greater amount and, I am going to wager for the inferior side to catch up.  Works and does not work, just about 50-50% of the times in reality.  Especially, when the inferior side starts to catch up and then fails while you got so confident and so consumed in progressions and wagering on that hope you got smacked once again and probably a larger loss than what put you in the position to start that kind of wagering. 

The problem in baccarat is that there is so many short term deviations, you cannot apply what you interpreted just happened in the past several hands into the current series or the next series of what will actually be produced as winning hands.  And when you fall into that rut, your aggravation and frustration levels become huge.  Then your mind frame, concentration and thoughts are negatively affected without your conscious knowledge.   Then you miss the easy or easier or ever so prevalent (whatever you want to label it) coincidences that formed and all your wagers were on something completely opposite because you were stuck in some cloud and just plain frustrated to the point of being blind.  Your aggravation and frustration levels are so high you are a danger to yourself and your bankroll/buy-in.  So the really good sections with repeating small trends that you would have probably wagered on and caught, were not so good to you and you lost money. 

The problem is this.  Many players attempt to calculate or predict the randomness.  So many systems or bet placement methods and plans, will sell you their holy-grail attempt at some pre-planned amount of wagers, usually with a negative progression (just in the rare case you lose, LOL) that counts on the inferior side quickly catching up to the side that dominated.  The real downside to that, is the way the inferior side does catch up and how often the strikes are that will add positive wins to the inferior side, etc. 

Random and bias most certainly have maximums or an unwritten type of limit, is the best way to describe it.  You will not have 50 straight Bankers, followed by 30 straight Players.  Can it happen, possibility-but the odds would probability be something like 1:4,000,000 shoes or something like that.  Here is the guts of it.  Take all the statistical numbers you want from say 10,000 hands or a 100,000 shoes, whatever.  Apply the mean averaged results, meaning dividing it down to one shoe of 80 hands or so.  In fact, apply them to 3 or 5 shoes if you feel better, whatever amount of shoes you are sitting down to play that is.  What those winning hands produce for the small series of 3-5or 7 shoes you play cannot be reproduced with the stats that you ran on all your sampling.  That is why systems and bet placement methods do not prevail on any type of consistent basis.

A hot streak of Bankers or Players a long series of alternating chops or a shoe where every single natural cuts to the opposite side or any one of 10 other types of trends or events.  It will happen the same amount of times as the exact opposite happening.  Be it in the same shoe or one shoe compared to another shoe later in the evening.  Also, everything else with a touch of each one will also occur in between the shoe that produces the consistent trend and the shoe that has the complete opposite that occurred.  Random or bias happens, there is no way to stop it and as well you complicate your wagering enormously when you try to factor it in.  When you do that your thought process will become clouded and something that you do not want to creep up on you will normally set in and that is called aggravation and frustration.  The best wins and the clearest shoes I have experienced, were those played with no or little to none of both, both aggravation and frustration.  Been there and experienced it, many times.

Randomness and bias produces coincidences and that is where the highest majority of all baccarat players go astray.  Coincidences can be exploited as if they were predictable, even though they are mathematically NEVER predictable.  And that my friend is the casinos greatest friend and the players worst nightmare.

Open your mind and forget mathematical strategy and computer analysis.  It really does not apply to the few shoes you will be playing at the casino. 

The very meaning of variance is the key, it means that varies and no particular pattern is going to stay long enough.
Just think about it, if any specific pattern was constantly present it would be so obvious to follow.
Therefore in my consideration the best course of action is to have a preconceived plan before you reach the table in order not to get influenced by what's going on during a session, you just execute your plan to the letter, be disciplined and not impulsive.
When no specific pattern prevails for long enough this is a pattern, the footprints of variance have curves in order to lose whoever tries to follow!
Just imagine it as a hot pursuit of predictions, variance stays ahead because you've decided to follow!
In practical terms, create your own sequences which include a little bit of everything, my preference is multiples of 6 results, when you finish with the 1st 6 sequence reverse the same results of your 1st 6 sequence, then you could change slightly the order on each new 6 sequence in order to have as many permutations as long as you need to bet.
An example of such permutation is P,P,B,P,B,B then reverse it, change the order without favoring 1 side than the other.
Whether you'd be slightly ahead for most of the time (flat betting) or if you find yourself trailing a bit, then you could apply a mild negative progression:

1) for every 6 sequence which you have 3 wins and 3 losses don't change amount, keep betting same units for the next 6 sequence.
2) for every 6 sequence which you have 4 wins and 2 losses reduce units by 2 for the next 6 sequence.
3) for every 6 sequence which you have 4 losses and 2 wins increase units by 2 for the next 6 sequence.
4) for every 6 sequence which you have 5 wins and 1 loss reduce units by 4 for the next 6 sequence.
5) for every 6 sequence which you have 5 losses and 1 win increase units by 4 for the next 6 sequence.
6) for every 6 sequence which you have 6 wins reduce units by 6 for the next 6 sequence.
7) for every 6 sequence which you have 6 losses increase units by 6 for the next 6 sequence.

Quote from: Blue_Angel on October 04, 2017, 03:43:36 PM

The very meaning of variance is the key, it means that varies and no particular pattern is going to stay long enough.

That is exactly right, correct!

However, there are certainly 'variances' that include 7 or so squares going sideways of 4 or 5 repeated clusters of Bankers and Players, there are also 'variances' of streaks of 15 Bankers followed immediately by 11-16 Players, there are also 'variances' of 15 'chop-chop bankers-players' in a row, there are also 'variances' of 12 squares going sideways of 'terrible 2's', etc., etc., etc. 

The whole thing I learned is, being able to capitalize on what is being presented and not what you want to happen.  Nothing sticks around, grant it, however, playing at $250 or $500 wagers or say $1,000--a continual wager with a negative progression or without a neg progression can easily go into the 7 to 10 hand failure range costing quite a bit. 

The 5th paragraph down is:

"The problem in baccarat is that there is so many short term deviations, you cannot apply what you interpreted just happened in the past several hands into the current series or the next series of what will actually be produced as winning hands.  And when you fall into that rut, your aggravation and frustration levels become huge.  Then your mind frame, concentration and thoughts are negatively affected without your conscious knowledge.   Then you miss the easy or easier or ever so prevalent (whatever you want to label it) coincidences that formed and all your wagers were on something completely opposite because you were stuck in some cloud and just plain frustrated to the point of being blind.  Your aggravation and frustration levels are so high you are a danger to yourself and your bankroll/buy-in.  So the really good sections with repeating small trends—that you would have probably wagered on and caught, were not so good to you and you lost money."

If you do not believe it--you will when you play the game long enough, IMO and IMO very strongly!

The bottom line---There are no set rules for 'something' to happen or not happen.  And, that very 'something' might or might not appear.

Those players that are there and pointing to the score board and verbally citing why something is or is not going to happen are the most out of tune and out of place--players I have ever witnessed.  However, I do understand with certain reasoning and certain selectivity--but not on the, almost every hand or every few hands regularity all these players have.  Bottom line--There are always exceptions and irregularities in defining sections and turning points of the shoe presentment that is occurring.   

"Randomness and bias—produces coincidences and that is where the highest majority of all baccarat players go astray.  Coincidences can be exploited as if they were predictable, even though they are mathematically NEVER predictable.  And that my friend is the casino's greatest friend and the players worst nightmare."

And on a side note as been mentioned before, the single best thing the casinos did was install the score board.  That has to be the single largest income helper for the casino in the game since they had the game of baccarat. 

An entire shoe producing all B-P chops (even discounting ties) is impossible to believe.
Even admitting 30 ties, the probability to get 50 BP chopped hands represents a more than 7 sr deviation, that is the same probability to get a 50 hands streak.

In the history of roulette and baccarat there are no records of such values. 
(roulette records known= 42 blacks and 41 chopping hands)

If this should be true, it's an additional proof that baccarat tends to get the opposite outcome of the last happened. As bac streaks of 50 never happened.

as. 

Quote from: AsymBacGuy on October 16, 2017, 12:56:13 AM
An entire shoe producing all B-P chops (even discounting ties) is impossible to believe.
Even admitting 30 ties, the probability to get 50 BP chopped hands represents a more than 7 sr deviation, that is the same probability to get a 50 hands streak.

In the history of roulette and baccarat there are no records of such values. 
(roulette records known= 42 blacks and 41 chopping hands)

If this should be true, it's an additional proof that baccarat tends to get the opposite outcome of the last happened. As bac streaks of 50 never happened.   

as.

'As', I put it over my kids.  I witnessed this one time in Atlantic City at the high limit room large Bac tables. Every single hand from start to finish with some ties.  And there was not 30 ties, I don't believe there was more than 12 or so ties, about average.  Your choice whether to believe me or not.

I also seen a shoe with zero ties, none.  Plenty with 2 or 3 ties, I think 1 or 2 with one tie (maybe), but one shoe with zero ties.

And as I said, one shoe of all doubles with a 3 in a row around the middle of the shoe somewhere, plus ties. 

Likewise and of the same importance would be all the countless shoes with no streaks, no Fortune 7's, etc., as well as the numerous shoes with all clusters of super strong formations, or 5, 6 or 7 Fortune 7's within 10-14 hands or so, and shoes with better than 20 ties, etc., etc. 

Like I have always said, play long enough and see everything.  Then when something else happens, you even tend to get that 'newbie'"OMG I can't believe what just happened" type of feeling.  LOL. 

I have witnessed several times over the years, streaks for both the Bankers and the Players ranging in the high 20's, like, 27-29 times.  I have heard from a handful of dealers about streaks in the high 30's as well.  Hard to believe, but I know they did happen.

Why don't you marty for the chop and use a "fortune 7" bet as an insurance?
If the chop/change happens up to and including 6th bet then you win by doubling up, if 7 streak then you win "fortune 7".

If you bet always like BPBPBPBPBPBP...etc then you win chops and streaks, the only nemesis sequence is PBPBPBPBPB...has to zig zag the exact opposite, but if zig zag identical then you'd win every bet.

Quote from: Blue_Angel on October 16, 2017, 01:47:11 PM
Why don't you marty for the chop and use a "fortune 7" bet as an insurance?
If the chop/change happens up to and including 6th bet then you win by doubling up, if 7 streak then you win "fortune 7".

If you bet always like BPBPBPBPBPBP...etc then you win chops and streaks, the only nemesis sequence is PBPBPBPBPB...has to zig zag the exact opposite, but if zig zag identical then you'd win every bet.

From my point of view and IMO after playing for several decades:

Exactly what you said, many players would get 'sucked in', the highest majority of them.

Marty with only $200.00 out there, translates to $12,600.00 on the 6th wager:
$200.00
$400.00
$800.00
$1,600.00
$3,200.00
$6,400.00

You pretty much better be in Atlantic City, South Florida, or Vegas and a handful of casinos elsewhere in the USA anyways.

Risk versus reward and chance of losing $12,000.00 + dollars for a single unit profit of $200.00 sucks in my book.

A player with say a table min. of $25.00 out there would look like this:

$25.00
$50.00
$100.00
$200.00
$400.00
$800.00
$1,600.00

Risk versus reward on risking over $3,000.00 to win $25.00.

As far as chop, yeah--comes and goes. 

As far as Fortune 7, I was referring to the 40:1 wager where the Banker wins the side wager with a 3 card total of 7.  Not winning 7 Banker hands in a row, if that is what you said??

QuoteAs far as Fortune 7, I was referring to the 40:1 wager where the Banker wins the side wager with a 3 card total of 7.  Not winning 7 Banker hands in a row, if that is what you said??

Aha! I thought "fortune 7" wins when there is a 7 streak for banker, that's why I've suggested to double up 6 times for the opposite side.
However, even if that was the case the 40 to 1 would return less than the 64 to 1 for 6 losses in a row.
This special bet is good value to lay it rather than back it, but of course don't offer you such option.
I was reading your previous post and I thought that if after so many shoes only 1 didn't has any tie then perhaps it would be good idea to bet for ties with a progression, let's say 1 shoe = 50 decisions and there must be at least 1 within 50 bets/steps, what do you think?

Quote from: Blue_Angel on October 16, 2017, 04:10:00 PM
Aha! I thought "fortune 7" wins when there is a 7 streak for banker, that's why I've suggested to double up 6 times for the opposite side.
However, even if that was the case the 40 to 1 would return less than the 64 to 1 for 6 losses in a row.
This special bet is good value to lay it rather than back it, but of course don't offer you such option.
I was reading your previous post and I thought that if after so many shoes only 1 didn't has any tie then perhaps it would be good idea to bet for ties with a progression, let's say 1 shoe = 50 decisions and there must be at least 1 within 50 bets/steps, what do you think?

Here in the USA, most 'EZ Bac' tables (the ones without commissions and the Fortune/Panda 8's) are played all over.  Some have the 'Dragon Bonus' in lieu of the Panda 8 side wager.  But elsewhere, there is the Banker 6 side wager that is paid instead of the Fortune 7 side wager as I mentioned.  BTW, if you did not know, the Banker pushes on the F-7 win and on the Panda 8 win, the players do get the regualr wager paid as well, unlike the push on the F-7.

As far as the regularity of the Fortune 7 to prevail, is not always with consistency going to follow any statistical history for the few shoes a player will be playing for the session. 

I have seen on a consistent basis, NONE or 1 in an entire shoe.  I have also seen many shoes without a single one. 

I have wrote somewhere on this somewhere on this board reference what I do see, more so than not--reference the Fortune 7's.

Reference ties.  As long as you hit it in the next 7 or 8 hands dealt, you will prevail.

As far as the same applying to Fortune 7's.  I have been at countless tables where there are zero F-7's from the 40th to the 60th hands and then everyone is heavy on the F-7 wagering.  At times it does come out and yet--many times, it will not as well.  I would say on a consistent measure, it will be less than 50% to prevail when wagering, "because  it did not happen in the past 'XYZ' number of hands" type of theory.   

QuoteSome have the 'Dragon Bonus' in lieu of the Panda 8 side wager.  But elsewhere, there is the Banker 6 side wager that is paid instead of the Fortune 7 side wager as I mentioned.  BTW, if you did not know, the Banker pushes on the F-7 win and on the Panda 8 win, the players do get the regualr wager paid as well, unlike the push on the F-7.

Sorry but don't know much about Baccarat, could you explain those special bets when they win and how much is their respective payout?

1) dragon bonus
2) banker 6
3) panda 8

How about what I've suggested about ties?

Quote from: Blue_Angel on October 16, 2017, 04:20:50 PM
Sorry but don't know much about Baccarat, could you explain those special bets when they win and how much is their respective payout?

1) dragon bonus
2) banker 6
3) panda 8

How about what I've suggested about ties?

Banker 6 is the same as Fortune 7.  Banker has to win with a 3 card 6.  I do believe the Banker loses 1/2 of their wager, I might be wrong??

Panda 8 is where the Players win with a 3 card 8 as well.  25 to 1 payout

Dragon Bonus is where one side, you can wager either side bonus, has to win by the following:

9, pays 30 to 1
8, pays 10 to 1  (some casinos have 15 to 1)
7, pays  6 to 1
6, pays  4 to 1
5, pays 2 to 1
4, pays 1 to 1

Naturals pay 1 to 1 for anyone wagering the Dragon Bonus and their side wins with the Dragon Bonus wagered.

QuoteDragon Bonus is where one side, you can wager either side bonus, has to win by the following:

9, pays 30 to 1
8, pays 10 to 1  (some casinos have 15 to 1)
7, pays
6, pays
5, pays
4, pays 1 to 1

You mean those values as a total or as difference between the 2 totals??

Yes, say the Banker had a 3 card 9 and the Players had a 6 and stand.  No bonus payout as the Banker won by 3.

Say the Banker had a 3 card 9 and the Players had 3 monkeys.  Banker won by 9 and a 30 to 1 payout r those that wagered the Dragon Bonus.

Say the Players had a 3 card 8 and the Banker had a 3 card total of 1.  The players would get paid the Dragon Bonus is they wagered it for winning by 7 points.

Quote7, pays ??
6, pays ??
5, pays ??