The Way We Think (Especially at the Baccarat Table!)
“It will happen—It has to happen”. Those are two of the most frequent sayings a player will here. And at times, yes they both do and yet—at other times, never. Some might not say, ‘never’. They explain it as, ‘then you are grasping—no evidence—just wishful thinking’, etc.
Large wins, then nothing. Like WOW! Complete fizzle out, then turns into a ‘demand to prove something to no one except myself that I can win again or more’. Always the same, never changes. Years and years of playing, different properties, different states and does not matter whether Asian, White or Latino, same—same, does not change.
Here is another one, “Monkey See—Monkey Do”, the list can go on and on and on. Okay, let’s get going on the purpose of writing this now.
I was coming into work this morning. I was exiting a gas station/c-store parking lot onto a side street. I wanted to make a quick left and go about 40 feet to a main east-west through-fare and hang a right turn. However, this guy has to come up and literally block my exit and he had to wait for the car in front of him to get a break in traffic to turn left. Of course he could not have left me room to go across and out, he had to block the way and stop smack in front of me instead of 15 or 20 feet before creeping up to the car stopped in front of him anyway. What was he thinking, what was his perception, closer to the other car waiting and he would go faster? Too much trouble to stop, let me out and then creep up to just wait anyway? There had to be a logical explanation rather than, ‘I am just a jerk and I shall block the drive so this guy cannot get out and has to wait because I have to wait’? Maybe, but I do doubt it. I think it had to do more with perception, initial thought, etc., than the latter.
One more, ‘My Cousin Vinny’, yes the movie, I love it. Anyway, remember towards the beginning when Vinny was in court at the arraignment of the two kids and he did not understand the procedure for saying Guilty or Not Guilty? Well, here is what happened:
“Judge Chamberlain Haller: Mr. Gambini, the next words out of your mouth better be "guilty" or "not guilty." I don't want to hear commentary, argument, or opinion. I don't want to hear any facts or evidence. If I hear anything other than "guilty" or "not guilty", you'll be in contempt. I don't even want to hear you clear your throat to speak. Now, how do your clients plead?
Vinny Gambini: [intimidated, but the words go right past him] I think I get the point.
Judge Chamberlain Haller: No, I don't think you do. Now you're officially in contempt of court! Would you like to say something else and go for two counts of contempt of court?
Vinny Gambini: Not guilty?
Judge Chamberlain Haller: Thank you. Not guilty plea has been entered for the record. Probable cause hearing will begin tomorrow at noon. Bail for both defendants will be set at $200,000. Oh and bailiff, take Mr. Gambini into custody with them... and set his bail at $200 for one count of contempt of court.”
Okay, Vinny had a different perception of what me and possibly you heard the judge say. That is exactly what I am referring to, each one of our thought process, interpretations and perceptions might not be the same. Well, the same thing happens at the baccarat table based upon each one of our past experiences, plateaus and other factors that are different for you, me and others.
Experience, Perceptions and Thought Processes. A lot in those three words, believe me! Perception is probably the largest and the most confusing to each of us at the baccarat tables. In fact, huge in baccarat as players tend to place wagers on what they think—that they interpret will be coming up for one reason or another. How the player thinks and reacts will equal—interpretation of the information the player observed. As well, the past experiences—good or bad of that player. Past runs witnessed, quantities of runs, infrequency of runs or chop-chop/alternating lengths, 1’s-2’s and 3’s, ‘V’s, 1’s and 3’s, doubles, balanced shoes, imbalanced shoes and lots more. Lots and lots more. If the player has not experienced certain things, then he does not know what might come out and when he starts, he will certainly be in the dark as to its formation reality and what could happen. Please, do not misunderstand the aforesaid sentence for ‘prediction’ or anything of the like. With a reasonable player, with common sense and a player’s mind that is conscious of reality rather than wishful thinking and dreaming, prediction is not relied upon in the typical sense.
If the player has past experience then the player has good perception as to what very well could come about. So, I am not saying old-timers that played this game for 30-40 or 50 years have a better shot at it then a fresh newbie does without deducing down how much ‘experience—perception and thought process’ is used in a skillful way rather than ‘prediction—wishful thinking and dreaming’ based upon a written advisement someone created and sold on the internet entitled, “how to win at baccarat”.
I am saying experience is huge along with an open frame-of-mind, the ability to interpret your perceptions within a clear thought process and the ability to pounce-on-it or stop playing and book a win. That is why so many newbies seem to be the “real deal” and then a ¼ or ½ shoe later are fizzling out with giving back all the win money followed by an aggressive attempt to recapture the win they have no ideas whatsoever—how they won what they just lost in the first place.
3 Kinds of Perceptions will generally make-up the players thought process based upon his experience.
False Perception. An erroneous perception of reality in baccarat. Just a self-inflicted vision of concept and belief by the player. The player will convince himself and thus be completely deceived by a false perception and subscription to his current wagering selections based solely on his past experiences or what others are mumbling and telling him to do. The player will always rationalize out what seems to be fantastic and successful but the false perception will soon surface and cost him lots of money. When he wins using this, it just fuels the soon to erupt fire that much greater.
Temporary Perception. The player is attempting to calm his lust to win, usually after a period of ‘false perceptions’ just fizzled out and cost him a large amount of his win or buy-in capital he had. Since perception is extremely hard to actually define and harder to actually understand by most people, the ‘temporary perception’ is more of a fleeting ‘some right and almost on track’ type of result for the player which could send the player into larger wins or aggressive losses.
Self-Correcting Perception. The hardest to explain but here goes. Almost elementary psych but one can very well relate ‘self-correcting perception’ to learning. How the younger school kids, say elementary school aged and how they are easier to convince and change their mind set then middle school aged and how middle school aged kids are easier to convince and change their minds than high school kids and/or adults would be. But ‘self-correcting perception’ within baccarat is the player catching himself following others especially when they are wrong in their bet placement processes. The player realizes he was drifting and not paying attention or at least he blames that as his excuse for following others and not paying attention, etc. It would also cover the player’s ability to correct himself with reverting himself back to the basics such as, remaining conscious of his plateaus, past experiences, capital, bet selection methods, duration of playing time, variances and win holding, etc., etc.
In closing, if you think everything is ‘cut and dried’ with a simple bet selection/bet placement method and what you will walk away with or place as a stop-loss, it is not that simple. Although it might be for those that have a one-side one-vision playing style, but for those players that are more successful, they realize that there is no easy definitive ‘cut and dried’ protocol of wagering, stop loss and win stop amounts. The latter has absolutely found the positive and tangible effects of being conscious and employing other factors and events into their basics of wagering, cashing out and playing time.