Well, its been a little while but I will add on to 'The Blog' here with some things that happened last night at the casino.
The single most important thing, is to clear your mind, most players cannot not figure out or understand. However, some players will actually realize, why and how they lost for certain events and times.
The score, the board, are like radio spots. You will hear and hear radio ads and then hopefully one day when you need that service or product—you will call them and they will profit. Same in baccarat, players tend not to forget but they confuse themselves with all their past hands-happenings-shoes, etc. You have to recognize what you want and if and how it will be actually exposed when you are playing. There is always something to say about winning or losing point values.
On players saying this or that after a hand or before a hand. OMG! All the time! Sure I do it once in a while as well. More so with the players I know than I do not. Others do it all the time. Pointing out and showing everyone, why such and such will happen or did just or previously happen. Of course when something did not happen (that was supposed to happen), there is not much explanation or any recourse, etc. But the talk never ceases. Last night at the casino, it was from someone I respect and he does rather well. For better than half a shoe, a total of a 7 got beat every time by the opposite side with the first 2 cards or the 3rd card draw, as well as the subsequent hand going to the opposite side for the cut. Then it stops doing that. The next shoe came along and they were still talking about it and that influenced these people in their wagering when a 7 came out for the following hand. The most ludicrous thing and in favor of the casino BIG TIME—is the score board and cards!!!! It makes the average player so conscious of what it should be and why and winning numbers and everything else involved in scoring, he will miss out on the more important aspect of the future hands. The players are actually analyzing the score and not what the shoe is producing! Two very different things!
Then a new shoe after that one. There was right at 20 hands out. Never past a 3, a 3 repeat of bankers or players and then a ‘cut’. I think there was 5 of them. I wagered only those. Won everyone. The other people except my buddy, were all wagering heavy on the 3rd one after a successful win and even heavier for the 4th one that never came. Then a dealer switch on a 2nd banker. I did not wager, although I wanted to wager for the 3rd banker, I also wanted the ‘cut’. But I choose to stay out because everyone was very heavy on the 3rd banker and I mean everyone, between $800 and $2,000 and it was a $2k table max. I did not wager and I really had great profitable games with the new dealer in the past and he was one of my favorite dealers there, that just came in. He was ready to deal and a couple of the players told him to stop. They begged me to wager with them and rather than kill the building camaraderie happening, I threw in one quarter on the banker. Their faces were frowns and laughter. I was urged to wager larger. I did not want to and I felt it was the end of the section. I have talked about and wrote about sections here and I truly believe in them and they truly exist in every shoe, at least if it is not a super rare non-deviation banker and player results like every single hand a chop-chop or a doubles the whole entire shoe. I stood fast at the quarter for the sake of support. Boom, natural 9 for the players and a losing hand for the bankers. No, I am not physic or a magician, just time to change up and I was right, could have been wrong. Just the reasoning was strictly based on it made 5 times triples in the past and it will do it again. Now, I would agree more about the 2nd line for the 2nd repeating one that just occurred but not the 3rd. If it made the 3rd and the 4th I would have to stay on it for the remaining and only losing the last one at that point. But the talk and the reason is all wrong when you are talking about outside the section or past a shoe divided up into 3 or 4 section for every 20 -25 hands or so. Can it continue, sure. But I see less and less continue with the pattern/trend/winning hand production from each shoe outside of the section. Looking at the first section and being in the last section of the shoe is what I am referring to as well. Or the previous shoes.
It changes, and changes throughout the shoe. At time I am only wagering on the banker or player to continue and at times I am wagering for the cut and yet, at other times I am wagering for win after another wager until it hits with doubling and tripling and quadrupling, etc., on one side until I win my one unit (a negative progression).
A good player plays with it or possible the player plays against it—stays at and no set protocol. Has a habit of saying the cards he doesn’t wait for—the 3rd ones for the players and the bankers if the rules demand those to be pulled. Doesn’t matter, cannot change it, and not in any way whatsoever — others at the table are getting mad at him. Clearly—the majority of the times a person calling for a card won’t care. OMG, one of the regulars I gamble with all the time. Last night he would comment after the first four cards were drawn. If it needs a 3rd card for the players and/or the bankers-he would normally call out for a winning card for the opposite side than what he did actually wager. Why?? Because he cannot change it no matter what he says or does not say! Clearly the majority of the times a person calling for a card for that 3rd card is going to be wrong anyways. It is a frustrating and a freakish type of situation, IMO.
Some people will continually flat bet. Some will wager the opposite side when it gets to a repeated 3rd or 4th min streak. Most of them are basing their wagering decisions on a majority and collective experiences from their past—not the instant shoe. Can in reality go either way of course. Just take a period of 10 times within 1 shoe that the board made 3 and 4 repeating bankers or players. A player might have wagered everyone at that time for the opposite side to come out. He might as well have kept wagering through 6 or 8 or 10 times to recoup his losing wagers and make the one unit once the opposite side prevailed. One time going to say 9 times on a $50.00 wager would be $25,550.00 to make $50.00 and recoup any of the prior loses in so trying. If the player started at the more intelligible say 4th attempt to have it ‘cut’, meaning there was 3 previous repeating wins for one side, he wagers $50.00 on the fourth hand to cut to the opposite side. Then it does not. He makes a decision to double up until it does cut. It gets to the 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th and 9th wager. He would need a total of $3,150.00 to risk to recoup his losses and make the same $50.00.
I have a way and a system that stops me after 2 negative wagers that is highly successful to me, but that is IMO and protective as to how far I do get into a negative progression. Yes, eventually it will cut to the opposite side, but if you don’t think 7 or 9 or 11 or 13 times happen, sure it is low, but it happens all the time. It is not the way the greatest amount of players play and the reason being, their bank rolls and buy in’s do not permit them to. If you have the bank roll, you can always make one unit if you stay on the same side you are attempting for (the opposite side as to when you started your wagering) and the table limits allow you to, etc. It will always switch. I much rather get on a 7 plus streak with a positive progression in the beginning and only lose the last hand when it eventually will ‘cut’. IMO, it is hard to bounce back and forth with both styles of play, extremely hard. That is why I have previously wrote about the average and the highest majority of all players thinking and wagering 1-way only!!! Meaning, it is their way or the highway theory. They think and predict one way and the shoe has to conform to that 1 way. I wrote about and mentioned the 4 way or actually 8 way thinking agenda rather than the 1 way.
1 Way=North. As long as the shoe conforms to your predictions based on whatever, you are good to go. If not you lose. Period. Instead, open your mind and allow yourself to look at all 8 ways, North, Northeast, East, Southeast, South, Southwest, West, North West, etc.
Also, last night once again. There are two regular players. One is a lady that is a very good player and her ways of thinking usually attacks all the angles most every wager within each section. The other is a son of a guy I mention a lot, a casino buddy I know in the casino as well as outside. His son started playing about a year or so ago, maybe 18 months now. The female came in a game, me and another guy started up, wow—she was depressed and her face showed it. Small talk led her to tell us that she won $13k the night before, Thursday evening. She lost it all late Thursday and earlier before we started las night. She is a $50 to $250/$350 a hand type of player with a $2,500/$4,000 buy-in, etc. She told us all the same things I have wrote about, thought she could control the table and the shoe, thought her winning streak would hold out, thought she could continue hitting the F-7’s for $25 or $50 at a time, etc. How one shoe had 5 of them and then none for 2 or 3 shoes, etc., etc. Then the guy, the son of my buddy, won over $10k also and gave it all back. Then he started in and would win, $200, press to $400 and win and then to $800 and win and then go to $1,600. Lose. Bought in with a few thousand and then a few thousand more. Lost it all in one and a half shoes. Great bets, spot on for the first 3 or 4 and then every time he pressed up and up to the 4th or 5th one, he would lose. Then the clear frustration set in, clearly. Then all the mistakes. Like 4 and 5 bankers in a row and his thought was ‘cut’. Buys in with another $1,500 and throws it all up on the players. Bankers continue. Both, sad. All the typical and all the obvious. These are people that played like I said, 18 months or 2 or 3 years. They do not know the volatility of the game and also, the way their psych’s are effected by winning and losing both.