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Topic: Identifiable events in baccarat. (#10-A of 10 in a Series)  (Read 2144 times)

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Online alrelax

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(This post is dedicated to AysmBac.  I sat down with lots of coffee and attempted to explain, 'Defining events that will and do frequently happen in baccarat and why I wager with them or against them.  I am naming my most frequent ones.)

A benefit can also be a liability or a benefit that, carries some significant but not so obvious, cost or risk.

Read it.  Read it and read it.  That is baccarat.  There is no wagering that cannot be a risk, period.  Once you think you have no risk, you will lose any edge and advantage you may really have.

Deciphering the waves, they do exist.   

It is just that we do not know the order of the waves that the she will produce.  If you think you do and all your testing, graphs, charts and membership circles of other professional players, have told you what they are—your bankroll will disappear.  Be careful, be smart and realize that there is actually some hidden and not published knowledge to this game.  Not voodoo, but real characteristics that will present themselves as well as disappear.  That is why you need to be extremely clear-minded and able to ‘reset and refresh’ yourself on a constant and repetitive manner when playing baccarat.

Numbers.  Numbers will tell you a lot in the game of baccarat.  Numbers and several years of play will generally not allow you to realize what I am about to say here.  You can believe it or not, totally up to you because it is your money.  Just, when you walk out of the casino and lost, just remember there might, just might—be a bit more to baccarat than you thought.  So, you can; 1) Disbelieve it; or 2) You can shrug your shoulders and call me “terminally stupid—pissant or a friggin unintelligent”; or 3) Believe it; or the only other thing left you can do is; 4) Be neutral and check it out.

The shoe is infinite, it does not carry over from shoe to shoe to shoe and one continuous game as so many think and say it does.  A shoe of about 80 hands can only make so many events, combinations, waves, winning and losing hands, etc.  So in reality, one shoe of baccarat in the USA will make right around 80 hands, or 160 if you view each side as a numbered result.

I like to give the following example of a baccarat shoe and what it can do.  Which is the same as going to the beach on various days and observing the waves as they come into the shoreline (the beach).  Smooth, rough, high, low, equaling out, the same for a while, abruptly being different and varying greatly, etc., etc., etc. and so on.  At 9 AM the waves will be different than they generally are at 1 PM and again at 2 AM later on, as well as the same time the following day.  At times they will certainly look the same as well, at other times completely opposite.  But, the beach and the people are still there, just adapting to the waves in different ways depending on the volatility of the waves and the person’s ability to subject themselves to them.

Reality with various manifesting phenomena mixed in.  That is baccarat.

So many say, “What has already happened is past, it has no bearing on what will happen”.  That is true to a certain extent, but what has happened needs to be considered within your vision because the shoe you are playing out is finite and only so many things can or will happen.  Misinterpreting and alienating yourself from what I am attempting to lay out, will not open your vision or allow yourself to be in the proper frame-of-mind.

Presentments of general characteristics of a section being dealt---in the process---currently happening in front of you, is what you need to attempt understanding of and what is also possible to happen.  And, don’t let prediction become fallacy, as well—don’t let fallacy become prediction for yourself.  Remember reality and stay in it.

After you read through the following, make sure to grasp the paragraph below with the word “Differentiate” in bold letters!  Some of my identified and stringer presentments that have served me well.

Additions and Reductions, on 3 card draws.
  As soon as one side begins to get additions, particularly the player side and the banker side is reduced by its 3rd card—be alert for that event to continue.  Once it happens a 2nd time in a row—particularly within the first half of the shoe or the middle section, it might favor the continuance of doing that numerous times.  Likewise a reduction to the players side and the banker winning with the first 2 cards or the third card that increases.  However, IMO and experience the first one is usually stronger overall and continues longer.

6/7’s & 8’s/9’s.  Without anything else, I have found that 1 point wins and 1 point losses for both hands, tends to lend itself to the worst rationalization of what the next hand will bring, more often than not.  As well as any other numbers that prevail and lose this is the worst that brings total randomness, continuance and any other chain of events that almost no one can profit off of.

Naturals-alternating.  An event exists to be exploited when alternating naturals appear frequently.  Naturals have a huge tendency to ‘WOW’ the players and they convince themselves that the side just got ‘strong’ and aggressively wager the same side that the natural just prevailed on.  However, naturals are frequent and have a tendency to bounced or alternate back and forth for a short event more often than not, especially when the ‘-‘ or ‘+’ is close together.

Naturals
.  When one side is producing naturals over the other side’s 6-7 or 8's and winning—it is an event that can be exploited frequently.  Meaning, for example, P has 6 and B has 7, then P has a N8 and B had a N9, etc., or the opposite.

Fortune 7’s (3 card Banker winning 7’s, 40:1). Zero to low ties.  Within the first 10 hands.  And hands 16-23.  Those are the most frequent events when the shoe produces the F-7 hand.  Frequently shoes have 1 or 2 F-7’s.  Some shoes have none.  If a 3rd F-7 does appear, generally there is a 4th.  5 and 6 F-7’s are a bit infrequent or rare but do occur.  Or, should I say you will not generally see that in every other shoe or every third shoe, etc.  By the way, the reason there are more F-7’s in the beginning of the shoe than elsewhere and on a more frequent basis is the number of cards in the shoe of course.  Frequently there are many 10’s that form the first 3 or 4 cards dealt and then a larger card reducing the players side ‘under 6’ or remaining at 6 and drawing an Ace through a 7 to make the 3 card 7 on the Banker side, etc.

-10/+10/+20. Frequently the total count will hover around ‘-‘ or ‘+’ 10 somewhere between hand 15 and midway or so.  And then favor the deficit side in smaller hit rates for its attempt to “catch-up”.  It happens and happens repeatedly.  Much rarer an event, one side will continue to +20 and continue to rise.  Infrequent by far.  I have only witnessed a handful of shoes be able to provide the + side that was already well over +15, say +17 to +20 or so and then produce a streak on top of that.  Depending on how far into the shoe it is, the deficit side usually (USUALLY) makes a pretty good attempt to “catch-up” to the other side. The key thing in this event as I have found, is the deficient side will usually ‘catch-up’ in a slow grind by not allowing the + side to streak or repeat as it was previously.  Depending on the hand of the shoe, I have done extremely well and won larger wagers based on these events siding with the ‘-‘ or the ‘+’ of a side to win or lose.   

Equaling Out.  The highest numbers of shoes will equal out in how many winning hands each side ended up with and if not equal, within 3 to 5 of each other as next most favorable.  An event to be exploited along the shoe after the first 1/3rd of the shoe, many times.  If not, after the midway or 60% point.  Another easy exploit that comes along frequently is when it is within 1 or 2 of each other.  Example, 27-28, then 28-28, then 28-29, then 29-29, then 30-29, etc.  That event to me has won many a large wager, the same as a streak of any one side continuing.

½ Way to End of Shoe.  More often than not, when the first half of the shoe was ‘strong’, frequently repeating B’s and P’s and other distinctive continuing trends that formed, the second half is one to be extremely careful of it continuing.  Sure, great if it does.  But when you play long enough, this is one of the easiest and most profitable events that can be exploited big time for it to be almost the opposite of the first half.

Alternating & 2’s.
  No rhyme or reason, nothing I have ever found that will point to the successful and continued outcome of chops and/or 2’s.  If they appear within a section they can be exploited as it is an event that frequently happens.

Being there when it is happening.  Consciousness, frame-of-mind and wide & clear vision.  I have wrote about all this in other threads.  Most of all, reality.  Stay in reality while being in ‘La La land’ and ‘Dreamsville’.  Hard to do at times, but you must.

You don’t have to wager or count on these events to happen.  But they do happen and when it is not streaking 10 or 15 or 19 of one side, the shoe is presenting other things or ‘events’.  And these are what I found over the many years I have played this game.

What you have to do, I do—is put yourself into the wholeness the shoe is presenting and divide it up into sections.  Interpret it as ‘waves’ with some type of volatility that will happen or like a tree with its branches.  But continuously go back with your vision each hand and do not forget the main stream is just the tree trunk.

Experience is vital.  Without it—you are basically at the table’s mercy, the mercy of the aura of the surrounding you are in and the mercy of the other players as well.  Don’t say that those are not powerful, as the most certainly are!  Again--reality!

Example, when you see someone win thousands of dollars in a couple of hands—you will be drawn to that individual’s wagering results, which was, he won!  You most likely will follow him and then he loses.  Welcome to the game of baccarat.

Being able to differentiate what is happening as it is happening.
  Ask yourself, what is different or making it different.  A lot of times there is just that lurking there without anyone noticing.  You have to be able to classify the make ups of the hands presenting themselves as, strong—weak or neutral or balancing out.  Those 4 things will lead and control each section in one way or another.  And do not view 80 hands as 1, you have to divide the shoe up into 3 to 5 sections as the majority of the times that is better representing what is happening and forming, rather than 20 or 30 or 40 hands ago, etc.  You should only be concerned in a ‘section’, not looking at what happened back in the beginning, remember that.

More often than not (by far) a section of 15-20 hands is far greater representative of itself than outside of its section.  Presentment, Reality & Actual Events.

Nothing is 100% indicative that anything will continue or happen.  But be aware and let your vision go either way, with or against, ready to stack it up and pounce on it or go wait a section out.  You better maintain complete visual and ‘aura’ consciousness, the correct frame-of-mind and keep saying the word, ‘reality’. 
My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

Played well over 25,000 shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

"Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com


Online alrelax

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Re: Identifiable events in baccarat, the player's advantage
« Reply #1 on: May 02, 2018, 04:28:10 pm »
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  • Update list, not complete, others are within my writings, but I am updating some:

    Additions and Reductions, on 3 card draws.  As soon as one side begins to get additions, particularly the player side and the banker side is reduced by its 3rd card—be alert for that event to continue.  Once it happens a 2nd time in a row—particularly within the first half of the shoe or the middle section, it might favor the continuance of doing that numerous times.  Likewise a reduction to the Players side and the banker winning with the first 2 cards or the third card that increases.  However, IMO and experience the first one is usually stronger overall and continues longer.

    6/7’s & 8’s/9’s.  Without anything else, I have found that 1 point wins and 1 point losses for both hands, tends to lend itself to the worst rationalization of what the next hand will bring, more often than not.  As well as any other numbers that prevail and lose this is the worst that brings total randomness, continuance and any other chain of events that almost no one can profit off of.

    Naturals-alternating.
      An event exists to be exploited when alternating naturals appear frequently.  Naturals have a huge tendency to ‘WOW’ the players and they convince themselves that the side just got ‘strong’ and aggressively wager the same side that the natural just prevailed on.  However, naturals are frequent and have a tendency to bounced or alternate back and forth for a short event more often than not, especially when the ‘-‘ or ‘+’ is close together.

    Naturals.
      When one side is producing naturals over the other side’s 6-7 or 8's and winning—it is an event that can be exploited frequently.  Meaning, for example, P has 6 and B has 7, then P has a N8 and B had a N9, etc., or the opposite.

    Fortune 7’s (3 card Banker winning 7’s, 40:1).  Zero to low ties.  Within the first 10 hands.  And hands 16-23.  Those are the most frequent events when the shoe produces the F-7 hand.  Frequently shoes have 1 or 2 F-7’s.  Some shoes have none.  If a 3rd F-7 does appear, generally there is a 4th.  5 and 6 F-7’s are a bit infrequent or rare but do occur.  Or, should I say you will not generally see that in every other shoe or every third shoe, etc.  By the way, the reason there are more F-7’s in the beginning of the shoe than elsewhere and on a more frequent basis is the number of cards in the shoe of course.  Frequently there are many 10’s that form the first 3 or 4 cards dealt and then a larger card reducing the players side ‘under 6’ or remaining at 6 and drawing an Ace through a 7 to make the 3 card 7 on the Banker side, etc.  F-7’s and the next hand ‘cut’.  The highest amount of the F-7 appearing hands will ‘cut’ to the Players side with the upcoming hand to be dealt.

    Panda 8’s (3 card Player winning 8’s, 25:1).
      Panda 8’s will appear a norm of 3 to 6 times.  Panda 8’s appear frequently in the beginning of the shoe in multiple more than F-7’s generally will by far.  Panda 8’s will also appear in clusters (repeating themselves in a shorter hand-span) with greater frequency than F-7’s generally do.  Panda 8’s appear with less consistency within certain clusters of hands than F-7’s but with a greater appearance of anywhere in the shoe from the beginning to the end.  Panda 8’s also with great frequency tend to ‘cut’ to the Banker with the following hand to be dealt after the appearance of a Panda 8. 

    -10/+10/+20. Frequently the total count will hover around ‘-‘ or ‘+’ 10 somewhere between hand 15 and midway or so.  And then favor the deficit side in smaller hit rates for its attempt to “catch-up”.  It happens and happens repeatedly.  Much rarer an event, one side will continue to +20 and continue to rise.  Infrequent by far.  I have only witnessed a handful of shoes be able to provide the + side that was already well over +15, say +17 to +20 or so and then produce a streak on top of that.  Depending on how far into the shoe it is, the deficit side usually (USUALLY) makes a pretty good attempt to “catch-up” to the other side. The key thing in this event as I have found, is the deficient side will usually ‘catch-up’ in a slow grind by not allowing the + side to streak or repeat as it was doing or presenting, previously.  Depending on the hand of the shoe, I have done extremely well and won larger wagers based on these events siding with the ‘-‘ or the ‘+’ of a side to win or lose.   

    Equaling Out.  The highest numbers of shoes will equal out in how many winning hands each side ended up with and if not equal, within 3 to 5 of each other as next most favorable.  An event to be exploited along the shoe after the first 1/3rd of the shoe, many times.  If not, after the midway or 60% point.  Another easy exploit that comes along frequently is when it is within 1 or 2 of each other.  Example, 27-28, then 28-28, then 28-29, then 29-29, then 30-29, etc.  That event to me has won many a large wager, the same as a streak of any one side continuing—when it is there, it is there without reason, comparison or definitively being able to define the reason why.   

    ½ Way to End of Shoe.  More often than not, when the first half of the shoe was ‘strong’, frequently repeating B’s and P’s and other distinctive continuing trends that formed, the second half is one to be extremely careful of it continuing.  Sure, great if it does.  But when you play long enough, this is one of the easiest and most profitable events that can be exploited big time for it to be almost the opposite of the first half.

    Alternating & 2’s.  No rhyme or reason, nothing I have ever found that will point to the successful and continued outcome of chops and/or 2’s.  If they appear within a section they can be exploited as it is an event that frequently happens.

    Players Side Repeating Within Beginning/First Section.  Players repeating hands in any form of clusters have a frequent tendency to appear within the beginning of the shoe, in the first section.  Meaning, 3 + Players with a frequent 1, sometimes 2 Bankers and each time the winning hand is Players it repeats with 3 + occurrences.  This kind of section is frequently followed by a section of 1’s and 2’s in various configurations when the first section losses its Player dominance stance, frequently around the 15-19th hands.

    Sections & Turning Points.  The card or board needs to be visualized into ‘sections and turning points’.  There are usually 4 of them easily identifiable within a shoe.  There might be 3 in the extremely weak or very strong shoes and a possibly of 5.  Following ‘waves’ and the ‘sections’ makes it easier to follow the flow of cards and the presentments many of the times.  Following the ‘waves’ and attempting to wager heavier within the middle of them, is my key to increasing my wins with heavier wagers rather than all too often wagering at the very end of any weak, strong or continuing neutral presentments happening.  The key to using it while it is happening, is to identify a new section and with a multitude of other quickly rationalized out thoughts, find yourself within the start or the middle of a presenting ‘wave’. 

    Sections Identified.
    The sections with their turning points will reflect the ‘waves’ of the shoe.  The sections are basically, one of three things.  1)  Weak; 2) Strong; and 3) Neutral.  Baccarat shoes will produce those three series of events in a random order.  However, the shoe will generally have many consistencies which will represent ‘weak’ or ‘strong’, patterns/trends/clusters, etc.  For sake of a ‘non-arguing/non-challenging’ definition, the ‘weak-strong-neutral’ clusters which I put into ‘sections’ appear in random presentations without being repetitive according to any one thing.  However, numerous factors when present, have proved them to myself with frequency that is noticeable and identifiable as I have described within the above paragraphs.  How long will the ‘clusters’ last?  Unknown.  From a few to numerous. 

    Weak.  ‘Weak’ is a representation of the most prevalent events that happen within a shoe of baccarat, usually.  ‘Weak’ can be the traditional 1’s or 2’s or say 1’s followed by a 3 repeating side.  ‘Weak’ can be a situation where say the Player had 3’s and 4’s to the Bankers 1, each time the Banker beat the Player.  Thus, “The Banker is weak”.  Or, say the shoe produced 4 Banker runs of 6 to 9 and 3 Player runs of 5 to 7 with a 3 repeating Banker.  Then there was a turn to presenting 1’s and 2’s.  Thus, “The shoe got real weak”.  Or, the Player’s 3rd card consistently reduces them to zero or near zero total point value and the Bankers are winning with the first 2 cards or adding up to 7-8-9 total value with every 3rd card pulled.  Thus, “The Player is weak”. 

    Strong.
      ‘Strong’ is a representation of the third most prevalent events that happen within a shoe of baccarat, usually.  ‘Strong’ can be the traditional streaks and runs of either Banker or Player in consecutive order, one after the next.  ‘Strong’ can be a situation where either side, Banker or Player, consecutively produces series or sections of winning hands in multiple.  ‘Strong’ can very well be a section of alternating hands, a continuous ‘chop-chop’ of alternating Bankers and Players for many times.  ‘Strong’ can very well be a section of ‘doubles’ or ‘pairs’ that are produced side-by-side in a continuous result for 6 or 8 or 10 times, etc.  ‘Strong’ can be a series of 1’s-2’s-3-3-2’s-1’s, or many other things along those lines.  ‘Strong’ can very well be where a deficient side lost +10 or even +15 or more times and then began to catch-up and equal out the deficiency it was holding.  ‘Strong’ can be where either side is adding point value with every 3rd card drawn for many successive hands in repeating shoe presentment. 

    Neutral.  ‘Neutral’ is a representation of the second most prevalent events that happen within a shoe of baccarat, usually.  Neutral happen repeatedly throughout the shoe in many ways.  The most obvious is the +10, -10 or +20 situations with the ‘total running’ count.  The shoe will frequently, very frequently ‘equal’ out, meaning the deficient side will catch up and then balance out.  See, ‘Equaling Out’ in the above paragraphs.

    Consistent. ‘Consistent’ is when the shoe is producing presentments that are holding a repetitive pattern, that replicates a several to numerous previous hands, whether those hands lost or won.  Consistency is one of the easiest things to spot in an upcoming wave about to happen or one that is happening.

    Inconsistent.
      ‘Inconsistent’ is an event that occurs, not quite rare, but with a lot less frequency than weak/weakness.

    Dominant.
      ‘Dominant is the same as strong and consistent events that occur.

    Singular.
      ‘Singular’ is an individual event or 1’s, that occur.

    Multiple.
      ‘Multiple’ is repeating, dominant and strong events that occur.

    Frequent.
      ‘Frequent’ is the same as strong events that occur.

    Rare.
      ‘Rare; is the same as inconsistent events that occur. 

    What so many players, regardless of their experience fail to recognize are the identifiable events I touched on here.  Oh yeas, they do after they are presented and history of course.  That method gives them their fuel and energy to continually label the game as guessing and luck because when they attempt to use that presented information as the sole basis for wagering, the wagers are not within the ‘wave’. 

    As well, so many people believe baccarat goes only two ways with its presentation, which are attempted to be identified.  ‘Strong’, which they label only as streaks and runs and we all know how that goes.  And secondly, with the ‘weak’ meaning they interpret ‘weak’ as being related to chop-chop or possibly the presentments proving ‘non streaks’, etc. 

    Baccarat can be frequently identifiable with the correct vision of a player that has the correct frame-of-mind coupled with other emotional, judgement and physiological issues being present or absent. 
    My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

    Played well over 25,000 shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

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    Online alrelax

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    Re: Identifiable events in baccarat, the player's advantage
    « Reply #2 on: June 12, 2018, 06:46:50 pm »
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  •  Adding to the Series of 10 as #10-A in a Series of 10.
    My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

    Played well over 25,000 shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

    "Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

    Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

    EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com

    Offline Baelog

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    Re: Identifiable events in baccarat. (#10-A of 10 in a Series)
    « Reply #3 on: April 04, 2019, 01:29:04 am »
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  • One of the best topics (my opinion) on Baccarat around, especially trying to see the waves and to somewhat understand sections and turning points. I have this topic saved on my iPad.

    Baelog
    Baelog *The lost Viking*

    Offline Jimske

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    Re: Identifiable events in baccarat. (#10-A of 10 in a Series)
    « Reply #4 on: April 04, 2019, 05:37:40 pm »
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  • It’s nice to see someone respond to Glen’s post other than the same few.  More power to those who find strengths or dominant tendencies with the kind of analysis Glen attempts to outline.  Personally I find it unnecessarily complicated and confusing to try and figure out dominant naturals, 3-card draws, etc.   

    Nevertheless, absent a fixed bet selection which can win more hands than lose OR reduce LIAR we’re going to find ourselves placing bets on perceived dominant “presentments.”   Whether we see that bias in terms of card draw denominations or run lengths, patterns, etc. makes little difference.

    Sure, it’s not easy but simpler is better in my book.  Keeping alert, staying focused, having a plan and sticking to it both on the winning and losing side is the key to success.

    Offline AsymBacGuy

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    Re: Identifiable events in baccarat. (#10-A of 10 in a Series)
    « Reply #5 on: April 04, 2019, 09:39:25 pm »
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  • I'm looking at this post just now.

    I like to work trying to adhere at most by a scientific approach, that is every observation/theory must produce measureable results. And, more importantly, every theory must be proved by falsification.
    Did you measure your points?
    Human thoughts, instinct or presentments even based on objective outcomes cannot be a valuable guide to get the best of it at baccarat unless they are carefully measured.

    And of course the more heterogeneous are the parameters involved in a theory, larger should be the sample confirming such theory.

    as.
     
    Next to edge sorting it's me

    Online alrelax

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    Re: Identifiable events in baccarat. (#10-A of 10 in a Series)
    « Reply #6 on: April 05, 2019, 02:42:18 pm »
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  • I guess I am not a scientist, a mathematician or a statistician analyst. 

    With that said, and maybe the bulk of you are one of those 3 or all of them together?  I vividly see faces that lose at the baccarat table with their mouths open, their fists clinched, their mouths uttering words of numerous 4 letters words beginning with (F), (S), (C), and the 5 letter one with (B), etc., all the time.  I know the players and I know what they wager on, and like I just posted, a bit more in detail in another thread, I cannot pursue the scheduled wagering method that is proven to Win more than it loses by documented measurable approaches by proven results from a huge number of plays discovering that proverbial bias that I can exploit for certain wins, each and every time or even a number that is in excess of 50% of the plays I wager on.  It does not exist in the way you are seeking. 

    Winning and losing at baccarat is far past the Luck of the Draw.  Same as going to the corner gas station.  You can go at 6:30 am when it is classically busy with everyone getting their gas, their bakery items, their cigarettes, using the restroom and assorted other things at a busy gas/c store local or highway place versus going at 2:20 in the afternoon or say at 11Pm at night.  However, I went the other night at 11:30 PM on a weekday and usually never busy at all.  Of course their was a house husband there buying all sorts of things with several problems and the cashier was inexperienced and it took the other 2 employees present a solid 5 minutes to straighten it all out while I stood there and tapped my foot on the floor being stuck, because I already pumped my gas without paying and I promised my little boy an Apple prepaid card that I had to get for his waking up in the morning that was a few hours away, and I choose that time to avoid the several minute wait in the early morning on the way to open my store, etc.  That could happen once out of 10 or once out of 100 times or possible could happen three out of three times?  And the alternative is, going at another prime time when I could be in or out within seconds or I could be stuck for twice as long as the off prime time took me with added aggravation I choose to avoid by a calculated decision that just did not pan out.  Kind of the same at baccarat, just dependent on variable factors that will exist that you do not know until you are in midst of them and if you compile, focus, deduce, add, look back on experience, change up your past results, and a whole host of other things, you might just get those four $2,000.00 wagers correct and those eight $200.00 wagers wrong, losing more wagers than you won but walking away with $6,400.00 of casino cash with your $2,500.00 buy in, for example. 
     
    My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

    Played well over 25,000 shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

    "Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

    Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

    EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com

    Offline Jimske

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    Re: Identifiable events in baccarat. (#10-A of 10 in a Series)
    « Reply #7 on: April 05, 2019, 05:16:32 pm »
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  • I like to work trying to adhere at most by a scientific approach, that is every observation/theory must produce measureable results. And, more importantly, every theory must be proved by falsification.

    as.
    You are the scientist, mathematician and statistician analyst.  You been working on this for how many years?  Were even going to write  book about it.  What is it that you have to report after all this time?

    J

    Offline Lugi

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    Re: Identifiable events in baccarat. (#10-A of 10 in a Series)
    « Reply #8 on: April 06, 2019, 08:56:07 am »
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  • Baccarat can be a real simple game for those betting most hands in a given shoe.  No need to complicate the game with irreverential info.

    In the end you the player are either betting the same as the last hand, betting the repeat, or you are betting the opposite of the last hand. So it is either FLD or OLD.

    It is worth noting, that series of 2's behaves the exact same if you the player were betting FLD or OLD. (LW or WL).

    Therefore to simplify your decision making, it may be prudent to trigger off the 3rd line.  For all your rationale, it basically comes down to bet the opposite or bet the same. While trying to avoid getting done by any switch.  To give yourself a bit of leeway of being hit by a switch, you need depth in your staking plan.

    Any delayed progressions will give you the player cushion.  IMO this game is and always will be more of a staking game than any attempt to guess wrong or right.  Have a decent staking plan and it doesn't matter losing 3, 4 or 5 on the bounce.   

    Maths is great like that.  Once it's been proven that no method exists to do what you claim, it's not necessary to go through the details of your system to prove that it doesn't work.  You claim that it does something which can be proven impossible, therefore your claim is false. The details don't matter.

    Offline AsymBacGuy

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    Re: Identifiable events in baccarat. (#10-A of 10 in a Series)
    « Reply #9 on: April 06, 2019, 09:52:19 pm »
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  • You are the scientist, mathematician and statistician analyst.  You been working on this for how many years?  Were even going to write  book about it.  What is it that you have to report after all this time?

    J

    I've been studying this game for 8 years long, I think the game is beatable only as decks are not properly shuffled.
    My best accomplishment was and still is when I was contacted by a couple of high stakes players willing to be mentored by me and getting me a cut on their winnings. And, you know, it's a lot of money when people are wagering $5000 or more per hand.

    My final conclusion is that the game can't be beaten mathematically or "humanly", the solution remains in the middle (virtus in medio stat)
    Key words are time, space and asymmetry.

    Time: you need time to get some searched probabilities happening. And of course time may work in casino's favor mathematically or in player's favor statistically. It's up to us to decide when and how. 

    Space: baccarat is made by finite portions of probability. Many factors work in that. 

    Asymmetry: a constant slight asymmetry works either by rules and/or by actual conditions (card distributions, outcomes' nature, etc).
    For example, it's impossible (not only high unlikely) to get certain dispositions in the same position shoe per shoe.

    as.





    Next to edge sorting it's me

    Offline Jimske

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    Re: Identifiable events in baccarat. (#10-A of 10 in a Series)
    « Reply #10 on: April 08, 2019, 01:24:04 am »
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  • Baccarat can be a real simple game for those betting most hands in a given shoe.  No need to complicate the game with irreverential info.

    In the end you the player are either betting the same as the last hand, betting the repeat, or you are betting the opposite of the last hand. So it is either FLD or OLD.

    It is worth noting, that series of 2's behaves the exact same if you the player were betting FLD or OLD. (LW or WL).

    Therefore to simplify your decision making, it may be prudent to trigger off the 3rd line.  For all your rationale, it basically comes down to bet the opposite or bet the same. While trying to avoid getting done by any switch.  To give yourself a bit of leeway of being hit by a switch, you need depth in your staking plan.

    Any delayed progressions will give you the player cushion.  IMO this game is and always will be more of a staking game than any attempt to guess wrong or right.  Have a decent staking plan and it doesn't matter losing 3, 4 or 5 on the bounce.
    Agreed.  It's  about  betting.  Keeping it simple with proper staking plan - knowing when and how to recoup  if losing and. walking with winnings.

    Betting the 3rd line only a good  idea.  Leave the singles.  Don't  need them.  Consider playing side independent with this strategy. 

    Offline Lugi

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    Re: Identifiable events in baccarat. (#10-A of 10 in a Series)
    « Reply #11 on: April 08, 2019, 11:07:50 am »
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  • Agreed.  It's  about  betting.  Keeping it simple with proper staking plan - knowing when and how to recoup  if losing and. walking with winnings.

    Betting the 3rd line only a good  idea.  Leave the singles.  Don't  need them.  Consider playing side independent with this strategy.
    I didn't state betting the 3rd line only, rather TRIGGER off the 3rd line.  IOW, use the 3rd line to determine whether to switch from opposite to same as last.  Example, 3rd line hits, make no change from opposite if that is what your doing at the time.  If 3rd line hits consecutively, consider switching to same as last. 
    Maths is great like that.  Once it's been proven that no method exists to do what you claim, it's not necessary to go through the details of your system to prove that it doesn't work.  You claim that it does something which can be proven impossible, therefore your claim is false. The details don't matter.