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Topic: Baccarat experts: a test for you  (Read 507 times)

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Offline AsymBacGuy

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Baccarat experts: a test for you
« on: June 20, 2019, 01:10:37 am »
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  • An easy test to assess how a bac player really knows about baccarat.

    1) What's the probability to get a natural 8 vs a natural 9 in every position per every shoe dealt?

    2) What's the Banker's advantage when Banker shows a 4 giving a third card 9 to the Player?

    3) What's the average number of 3+ streaks on Player side in a 8-deck shoe when an average 12 cards are cut from the play?

    4) How many asymmetrical hands are going to show up per 70 resolved hands dealt?

    5) Disregarding other key cards, what's the average EV on F-7 bets (dragon bonus) when after 30 hands dealt no 7 had shown?

    6)  What's the average probability to get a back to back "standing" Player (6,7,8 or 9 point) hand?

    7) How the Player disadvantage is calculated?

    8) What's the probability Banker wins when showing a 5 and giving a third card 3 to the Player?

    9) What's the probability a Player two-card 7 point showing will win?

    10)  What's the probability to get a back to back winning natural hand on either side?

    as.



         
     
    Next to edge sorting it's me


    Offline Lungyeh

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    Re: Baccarat experts: a test for you
    « Reply #1 on: June 20, 2019, 02:30:49 pm »
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  • My brader Asymbacguy, per your definition, I should stick to the slot machines but even then the slot machines these days are so complicated, I don't know how they determine wins. So many lines and so many lines.

    Really like is said, there are many ways to skin the cat. Mathematically is one way. But I cannot imagine me having the intellect to  sit down and have a meaningful conversation with Asymbacguy on odds here and there. I was trying to find a cartoon sent me some time back that showed mathematicians at the highest level of the intellect food chain. Higher then the medical people.

    But I dream to work with Asymbac one day. And with Glen, Jimske and etc. God bless. Please continue to grace this site with your expertise brader!

    Offline roversi13

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    Re: Baccarat experts: a test for you
    « Reply #2 on: June 20, 2019, 03:16:35 pm »
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  • Asym,you have already given almost all the answers in an old thread,you posted 2 or 3 years ago.
    Very useful "numbers" or %,but not enough for beating sistemacally Bac.
    Only useful for creating a few strategies,not strong enough

    Offline AsymBacGuy

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    Re: Baccarat experts: a test for you
    « Reply #3 on: June 20, 2019, 11:18:51 pm »
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  • It was just a kind of joke, we know mathematicians can't beat the game and neither players using an empirical approach. Probably the answer is in the middle.

    I won't give specific answers to my questions as nobody is interested on numbers. Just personal comments.

    Question #1: it's very very rare to get three consecutive shoes without at least one natural 8/9 showing, especially if 8s and 9s are quite live in the actual portion of the deck. Since such side bet is payed 50:1 we have plenty of room to set up a progressive profitable betting.

    #2: when we are on Banker showing 4 and the third card is a 9, of course we are in a very good shape unless player's initial cards shows zero. A missed bonus as the probability player has zero is 1:3.77 (5 is ignored as it forms a tie hand).
    An excellent wasted probability that we won't find around the corner. If we were on Player we have no reasons to jump.

    #3: the average number of player's 3+ streaks is, imo, one of the best tool to take advantage from. Remember that sh.it or fantastic situations tend to come out in clusters.

    #4: oh well, everybody reading my pages should teach me about this. Say we'll get at least 3 asym hands per shoe and it's very very unlikely to get more than 14. Do not fall in the trap to bet banker when the asym force went away.

    #5: when 7s are particularly live at a EZ baccarat table, the best move is to bet player and the F-7 bet. You don't want to pay the banker's vig when a symmetrical hand is more likely to show up and to get a F-7 with live 7s, banker must get zero as initial point that is a non advantaged asym situation.

    #6: Mathematically is relatively low but any Player standing point is favorite to win itlr. And do not forget the clustering effect: Glen wrote an interesting thread about this.

    #7: player gets a 42.07% probability to win just about 8.4% of the total hands dealt. Not that easy to get consecutive dog situations like that.

    #8: it's quite easy to lose (or win depending on which side we were betting) even 12 or more hands in a row in such B favorite situation. Sometimes it seems that P helping 3s are concentrated on the possible player's third card. Again a kind of clustering effect.
    Notice that when the P third card is a 3 only a B 5 or B 6 point are standing (asym situations).   

    #9: it's a pretty good spot to bet P side and getting a 7 as we'll lose immediately just 19% of the situations (B naturals). Moreover Banker must stand on its 6s when facing a P standing; actually it should draw to get a better probability not to lose (a sort of mistake made by bac inventors, probably set up in order to limit the B advantage). In the remaining possibilities Banker can beat us only catching two cards out of all 13 probabilities.

    #10: the probability to get a natural on either side is 34.2%, yet per every shoe dealt card distribution issues tend to deny a perfect balancement of such occurences.
    A careful assessment of the consecutiveness of naturals falling on one side or the other one may help to spot the actual "card distribution" advantaged side. Especially when cards are not properly shuffled (that is almost always).

    It would be a honor for me to work with you Lungyeh as well as with many other members here.


    as.
    Next to edge sorting it's me

    Offline alrelax

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    Re: Baccarat experts: a test for you
    « Reply #4 on: June 20, 2019, 11:29:55 pm »
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  • DITTO:  "It would be a honor for me to work with you Lungyeh as well as with many other members here."

    Many of your comments are well taken as well.

    Keep up the great all around postings.  Thanks.
    My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

    Played well over 27,694 shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

    "Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

    Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

    Baccarat, actually a mixture of Watergate, attacking the Gotti Family and the famous ear biting Tyson fight leading to disqualification and a near riot.  Bac has all that more.
     
    EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com

    Offline AsymBacGuy

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    Re: Baccarat experts: a test for you
    « Reply #5 on: June 21, 2019, 12:35:13 am »
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  • Thanks Al, I will.

    as.

     
    Next to edge sorting it's me