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Why bac could be beatable itlr

Started by AsymBacGuy, June 28, 2019, 09:10:24 PM

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alrelax

I am going to delete my previously posted content as I only refer to actual B&M casino reality baccarat, that I played or witnessed in person. 

Why?  Because it is the 'short run' and what is clearly being played at the table.

So, my thoughts do not fit in here, IMO.

My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/index.php?board=250.0

Played well over 36,311 shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

THE PURPOSE OF GAMING IS TO WIN!

"Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

Baccarat, actually a mixture of Watergate, attacking the Gotti Family and the famous ear biting Tyson fight leading to disqualification and a near riot.  Bac has all that & more.
 
Administrator & Forum Board Owner  of  BetSelection.cc
EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com

AsymBacGuy

I've canceled a couple of my recent posts because they were too intricated to be grasped.

The concept is that any result distribution move toward the right by different speeds.
Obviously more singles and the speed will be higher, more streaks and the speed will slow down in relationship of how long are such streaks.

Obviously there's an average speed as we know that every shoe dealt will end up by filling way more likely  ranges (number of columns).

"Turbo" sequences at either side of the process (very high speed, very low speed) happens but naturally they are rare to happen.
Moreover an interesting feature of baccarat subsequences is that it's quite rare to get same step speeds at two or more "derived roads".

A possible registration of the patterns could be to put a + sign anytime the side shifts (B->P or P->B) and a - sign when the same side happens again.

We are not interested to assess the +/- final number, let alone to chase a specific sign, just about their form of presentation along any shoe.

For example a shoe sequence as BPPPBBPBPBBBPPPPP is

+ - - + - + + + - - + - - - -

To cut a long story short and just to provide an example, the only overalternating +/-/+/-/+...pattern comes out when consecutive doubles come out.

In fact BBPPBBPPBB...is

- + - + - + - + -

On the other end and as already sayed above, long + or - homogeneous sequences show up at branded chopping lines (+ sign) or at long streaks (- sign).

Every other more probable pattern is entitled to form short + or - sequences getting different shapes (isolated or clustered).

The interesting part of everything is that those shapes are sensitive either of the actual lenght of the shoe they are happening and about how the previous shapes went so far.

More later

as. 
Baccarat is 99% skill and 1% luck

CLEAR EYES, FULL HEARTS. CAN'T LOSE
(Friday Night Lights TV series)

I NEVER LOSE.
I EITHER WIN OR LEARN
(Nelson Mandela)

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Albalaha)

AsymBacGuy

Let's consider two extremes almost never happening, it's the starting point to go down in the patterns evaluation.

a) A shoe not producing any doubles;

b) A shoe not producing any 3/3+ streaks.


a) No doubles in a shoe means that we'll never ever cross more than one singled + or - sign in a row. 
That is we'll only encounter +-- or -++ situations.

b) No 3/3+ streaks happening in a shoe means that the - sign will come out as isolated all of the time.
In fact we need at least a 3 streak to get a - - succession.
At the same time it's easy to infer that at those distributions the overalternating +/- movement is increased in probability as soon or later two or more doubles will come out in a row.

No surprises!
Those shoes are the heaven for any sensible bac player for obvious reasons: what seems to be absent should be considered as non existent, yet the optimal play would be to bet after a single + or - sign in the a) scenario (+- or -+) and to bet after the - apparition in the b) situation.
At both those situations our probability to win is 100%.

Therefore and as long as no doubles or no 3/3+ streaks happen and in the betting spots examined, our probability to win is 100%.

Unfortunately (lol) at the remaining shoe distributions, doubles and 3/3+ streaks will mix and show up whimsically by different paces and by different quantities.

It's now that we have to make an "educated guess" of what are the more likely ranges of doubles/superior streaks in terms of distribution (not quantity) per any shoe dealt.

For example there are no many overalternating situations (consecutive doubles) happening along any shoe dealt, the same about clustered + signs formed by several long chopping lines or consistent - sign clusters (long streaks).
On the same line, the + or - shape will dictate our future action.
More informations we have at our disposal at a given point of the shoe, better will be our precision in approximating what should show up next.

Anyway when strong clusters seem to come out conseutively we think that there are only two options to follow: a)waiting or b)betting until the cluster ends up.
In the latter option we need just one more hand to win, then we might (almost) freerolling or collecting the profit.
Yet only first class players are capable to get a sort of long term advantage by playing "extremes".

Next time I'll present you some real shoes played. Step by step.

as.
Baccarat is 99% skill and 1% luck

CLEAR EYES, FULL HEARTS. CAN'T LOSE
(Friday Night Lights TV series)

I NEVER LOSE.
I EITHER WIN OR LEARN
(Nelson Mandela)

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Albalaha)