10 shoes randomly taken and considered by 2,3 and 4s patterns.

1- 4 4 2 3 2 4 2 3 4 4 2 3 3 2 4 4
2- 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 4 2 4 2 2 2 4 2 3 3 4
3- 2 3 2 4 2 4 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 4
4- 4 3 3 4 2 2 4 2 4 3 3 3 2 2
5- 4 4 2 2 4 2 3 2 4 4 4 2 2 2 4 (3)
6- 2 2 2 2 4 2 3 3 4 2 3 3 3 2 4 3 4 2
7- 2 3 2 2 4 2 33 3 3 1 1 4 2 4 2 2 4 2
8- 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 4 2 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 (3)
9- 3 2 4 2 4 4 2 2 3 3 4 2 4
T- 2 2 4 4 2 4 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 4 2 2

Notice shoes #5, #6 and #7 all present the same back to back results (in bold) in the identical five positions and I've chosen randomly ten shoes from my datasets. Moreover at shoes #6 and #7, even columns six produced another same back to back outcome.

Sh.i.t happens, we know, but crossing the probability to lose 12 bets in a row....

So let's see about the unb plan #1.2

1- L W L W L L L W W L W

2- W W L W W W W W W L W L

3- W L W W W L W W W W W W W L

4- W W W W L W

5- W W W L W L W W W W W W *

6- W L W L L W W W L L

7- W W L W L W W W W W L W W W W W W

8- W W W L W W W W W W W W *

9- L W W W W W L W L W

T- W W W W L W W W W W W W L W W W

W= 91 (+ 91 units before vig)
L= 29  (- 87 units)
*= 2  (- 2 units)

Nothing to be appalled at, yet....

as.

Hi AsymBacGuy  -- Many thanks for the above posts. Very interesting.

I am currently reading through all your posts on this site. It will take some time. I will glean the best bits ( for me ) for categories to monitor and then start my analysis from past shoes. There doesn't seem to be many shoe histories about which include the cards dealt. If anyone has such histories and can point me in the right direction I would be very grateful.

Analysis on an excel sheet would be even quicker, I'll look around.

I have a lot to learn.

Cheers,

klw.

Hi klw and ty!

Yep. the game is quite complicated to learn (imo), patterns are important but rank cards distribution matters...
You won't find many REAL LIVE shoes samples that consider ranks; best way is to deal shoes by yourself then registering everything.

Let's go back to my unb #2.

The basic strategy is quite simple: we'll only take care of B patterns in form of singles, doubles and triples (3+s) distribution.
So we'll start the betting (better sayed, the registration) after a new B hand comes out.
People who have read that thread know that in some way B doubles clusters are considered as a constant 'enemy', so we'll classify the B1 (singles) and B3+s distribution happening along each shoe dealt in terms of 'profitable' sections.

For obvious reasons, the probability to get the whole shoe providing just 1s and 3s at B side is well higher than the probability to get only 1s and 2s, not mentioning the very distant probability to get all the shoe showing 2s and 3s without any single in between.

Mathematically speaking, B1<B2 but B2<B3, overall the 1-3 vs 2 probability is very close to the expected 0.75 value.
Hence to get a long term profitable plan either we should raise the 1 percentage or the 3+ percentage.

In some way we should evaluate how many times 'coin flip' situations must shift toward one side or the another and how huge is the actual finite asymmetrical strenght favoring B side.
Moreover we must take into account the very slight propensity to get the opposite outcome already happened (good when wagering toward B singles and bad when wagering toward B 3's).

Let's randomly take a 10-shoes sample from my live shoes datasets:

1,1,3,2,2,1,3,1,2,1,1,3,2,3,3

1,1,1,1,2,2,2,1,2,3,2,3,3,1,1,1,2,1

3,1,1,1,2,1,1,1,2,3,1,2,2,1,1,2,1,1,2,3

1,1,1,3,1,1,1,2,1,3,1,1,2,3,3,1,1

1,2,1,1,2,2,1,1,1,1,2,3,1,3,2,1,1,1,3,2,2,1,1

1,2,1,1,1,1,3,1,3,1,2,2,2,1,2,2,1,3,1,1

2,2,2,1,1,2,1,1,2,2,1,2,1,2,2,2,3,1,1,1

1,1,1,1,1,1,3,3,1,1,3,3,1,1,1,1,1,2,1,1,3,2,1

1,1,2,2,1,3,3,2,3,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,2,2

3,1,2,3,3,3,1,1,2,1,2,1,2,3,1,3

Taken as 1s and 3s as wins and as 2s as losses and adopting a 1-2 mini progression (W=+1 and L= -3) we'll get an overall - 12 units loss (vig ignored for simplicity) so no short natural positive variance was involved here.

Nevertheless, a careful 'sections' W/L distribution will help us to define that an asymmetrical (yet mathematically proportional) betting made on a sure asymmetrical and dependent production cannot reach the unbeatable limits typical of pure symmetrical and independent situations.

Even at shoe #7 (10 2s and 10 1s/3s, a statistical abnormality) W streaks must come out, after all just one B 3+s streak had come out there (test your shoes and see how's unlikely is this happening).

It's like that profitable spots are surely happening along the way and of course they're not coming up when opposite situations seem to show up clustered at various degrees.

More on that next week

as.

Thanks for that advice AsymBacGuy , I will do that.

Looking at the random 10 shoes you listed, I worked out an average distribution for all 1/2/3 appearances for each shoe and applied it cumulatively.

The first 7 shoes show 3's under represented and 2's over represented and see what happens in shoe 8. Fill your boots for your system.

Of course reversion to the mean doesn't always happen like this and could happen a lot more gradually but this is how I observe random distribution and large corrections do happen.

Some will say that is a long patient wait for such occurrences and it can be but add other triggers to monitor in your game and wait for the best triggers.

Just an observation.

Hi klw!
Your observation is a good one, imo 

Shoes are just numbers and numbers are the reflex of patterns lenght


There are innumerable possible BP (and derived sequences) combinations at baccarat, yet we could take care just of the most likely patterns coming up along the way, getting rid of the most unlikely ones.
Of course we do not know the precise numbers distribution but we know that something must happen in a way or another at different degrees of probability

For example, if we'd bet toward getting two singles in a row at the start of the shoe, we know the general probability to win is 0.25, the same about getting two doubles in a row but now we need a double to come out as the very first pattern. In the sense that after a BB or PP sequence (that is a BBP or PPB) we'll bet respectively toward another P or B then playing the opposite side to limit that consecutive second double.
Again the probability is 0.25.

When we'd consider triples, we need a triple to come out and we know that any 3+ streak belongs to this category.
Thus BBB or BBBBBBBBB, or PPP or PPPPP is a triple.
Now to get another back to back (consecutive) triple of any kind we must bet two times the same side after the triple trigger has shown up.
So after BBB(P) we'll bet two times P, or after BBBBBBBBB(P) we'll bet two times P and the same about P triples. And guess what, the probability remains 0.25.

Oppositely thinking the probability not to get two consecutive same patterns in a row is 0.75 and of course it's the same fkng general probability to get two consecutive bets winning (or losing now by a 0.25 value).

But a baccarat shoe is not a 'sky's the limit' proposition, if it were we couldn't get a single possibility to win itlr.

I mean that those probabilities are dynamically placed along each shoe either for 'natural' reasons but more importantly for other features where a possible 'bad shuffling' takes a primary role.

More on that later

as.

Hi as -- Thanks for your endorsement.

I'm busy reading all your previous posts, lots of information to digest and great learning material.

In 1 of your posts you mention "Smoluchoswki studies " . Which part of his studies in particular are you referring to ?

Cheers.

Marian von Smoluschowski was a Polish Physics Professor that made several interesting studies about Brownian motion and many other topics, including the several mentioned here 'probability after effects' (I voluntariily changed the second word with a 'events' word).
Simplifying a lot, a given independent 0-1 binomial succession having a 0.5 probability to appear (the event come out=1 or not=0) considered at different consecutive steps will form another succession by adding the previous number with the very next number, now the new succession loses the 'random' factor as some values cannot be reached.
   
Example:

B=1 and P=0

Say the original sequence looks as 1-1-1-0-1-0-0-1-0-1-1-0-1-0-1-0-0-0-1, if we want to add two consecutive 'values' we'll get:

2-2-1-1-1-0-1-1-1-2-1-1-1-1-0-0-0-1.

Naturally the value 2 may go back to 1 or remaining at 2, but it can't never directly go to 0; the same about 0: no way it can jump to 2 without before going to 1.

If the original sequence is really random and independent (and not affected by the natural asymmetry working at baccarat), the derived subsuccession (albeit being unrandom), will present 'unbeatable' values typical of a coin flip proposition.

Nonethless, a simple 'runs test' made on reliable samples will deny this possibility, in the sense that the original succession is more or less affected by a kind of unrandomness. Of course at values higher than the expected natural 'asymmetry' working at B favor.
Otherwise we're just considering 'natural' situations and not 'actual' situations.

In the above example and considering the Smoluchoswki subsuccession, we got 7 'runs' whereas at the original sequence the runs number was 12.

Now let's consider a strong polarized streaky shoe where the original sequence looks like as:

1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-1-1-1-1-0-0-0-0-0-1-1-1-1-0-0-0-0-1-1...

the Sm. succession will be:

2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-1-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-1-2-2-2-1-0-0-0-0-1-2-2-2-1-0-0-0-1-2....

original sequence got 7 runs and the Sm subsequence got 12 runs.

The exact counterpart of what happened at the first shoe.

Now let's compare how many shoes will get the original/derived suuccesions getting more runs at derived roads than at original sequence.

To falsify this hypothesis let's take three different real and very polarized shoes portions:

1) 0-0-1-1-0-0-1-1-0-0-0-1-1-1-0-0-1-1-1-0-1-1-0-0-1-1-0-0-1-1-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-1-1-1-1

that is a Sm derived sequence as

0-1-0-1-2-1-0-1-2-1-0-0-1-2-2-1-0-1-2-2-1-1-2-1-0-1-2-1-0-1-2-1-0-0-0-0-0-0-1-2-2-2...

original sequence got 16 runs and Sm subsequence got 31 runs.

2) 1-0-1-0-1-0-1-0-1-0-1-0-1-1-1-0-1-0-1-0-1-0-1-1-0-0-0-1-1-1-1-1-0-1-0-1-0-1-0-1...

SM derived sequence is:

1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-2-2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-2-1-0-0-1-2-2-2-2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1...

original sequence got 29 runs and Sm sequence just 9 runs.

3) 0-0-0-1-1-1-0-0-0-0-0-1-1-1-1-1-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-0-0-0-1-1-1-1-1...

original sequence got 8 runs and Sm subsequence got:

0-0-1-2-2-1-0-0-0-1-2-2-2-2-1-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-1-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-1-0-0-1-2-2-2-2...

15 runs.

Notice that regardless of the actual distribution,  the overall number of 'shifting' numbers at Sm subsuccessions will be superior to the number of 'same value' clusters, now matter how's the fk cards are arranged.

In the four shoe fragments displayed, and assigning a W at shifting clusters and a L at losing situations we'll get:

1- L L W L W L

2- L W L W L W L W

3- L L L W W L W L W L L

4- L W L W L W L W L W L W L W L

Notice again that Ws came out clustered just one time, so no 'positive variance' in the common intended sense had acted along the way, yet Ls are more likely to be followed by a W than by a L, another way to consider results.

Now we have the tools to set up a 'bringing down the house' strategy by adopting a careful multilayered progressive plan that makes baccarat as the best game to take casinos' money.

See you in a couple of days.

as.

Good thoughts klw/i like your analogies above.

Great exchange of thoughts /ideas with AsymBacGuy.


AsymBacguy above:

"...Mathematically speaking, B1<B2 but B2<B3, overall the 1-3 vs 2 probability is very close to the expecte..."

    Well said/I agree AsB as that is where our overall shoe success is decided(i.e., our decisions at the critical junction of B2), and I personally also view the jct at B3 as almost as critical, though we can "see the light" a little better once at B3, at least in my opinion.
Furthermore, to add to our confusion at these two junctions is the fact that Player has a slightly different personality profile and desires at its respective P1 and P2 junctions. 

     Although you(AsB ) et al have shed some light on the above junctions with discussions regarding related topics such as sym/asym hands and how they affect trends continuing or ending. I am still needing improvement on my response time so that I can apply (sym/asym hands  trends & prob) in real time and not after the fact.



AsymBacGuy:
"...Now we have the tools to set up a 'bringing down the house' strategy by adopting a careful multilayered progressive plan that makes baccarat as the best game to take casinos' money.
See you in a couple of days...."

     Hopefully that doesn't mean you are planning on rolling out the Smoluschowski Zillionaire System  for the general public to see---as casinos shall cease and be no more.    
Just kidding as although one of my hobbies is studying great mathematicians from a few centuries ago. I actually had not heard of Marian Von Smouluschowski until u mentioned his name a year or so back on this thread.


Looking forward to your next post-- thx AsymBacGuy and continued success.kfb

Hi AsymBacGuy -- Many thanks for that reply.

I'll apologise in advance for my lack of grey matter ( or how I use it ) but can you point out where the runs are in your top example. I simply can't work it out.

" In the above example and considering the Smoluchoswki subsuccession, we got 7 'runs' whereas at the original sequence the runs number was 12. "

Cheers.

Hi AsymBacGuy  -- I don't want to become a pain asking lots of questions, I'm just trying to learn the game of Bacarrat. So if you want me to stop posting so as to not derail the flow of your thread , just say.

I have a question from a post of yours on March 15th. You wrote :-


" Say we have tested several shoes and the average shifting higher two-card point shows a median=3, that is 3 is the more likely shifting number between two sides (higher two-card points, not final results).
Thus we let go all inferior situations until we'll reach a shifting number of 3. "

I understand what 2 card point means and that we are measuring them rather than the final results.

1. We measure both sides independently ?
2. Can you show me an example of how you reach a shifting number of 3 ?


Cheers.

Thanks both KFB and klw for your interest!

I've started to write a Smoluchoswki derived strategy but I've seen it's a too complicated strategy to post here and for sure we can get the same profits by adopting easier concepts.

What I name as 'runs' is the number of same situations shifting from one state to another.
For example a BBPBPPPPPPPBBPBBBBPBP pattern is made of 9 runs.

The same about a byb sequence as bbbrrbrbrbrrrrbbbrrbrbbrrr: it contains 15 runs.

Itlr the number of runs follows the expected general probability providing a random production.

To 'bring down the house' we need to know either the general probability to work but more importantly an actual evaluation about how good or bad are shuffled the cards.

For example, it's literally impossible to get all steady states happening at a given shoe and the same is true about unsteady states.
Imo it's a strong mistake hoping to get too many steady states for long and of course is a worse mistake to get unsteady states coming out for long as cards are not randomly shuffled, thus what happened is slight more likely to come out again than to get an opposite situation.

Rain is very unlikely in Las Vegas, yet on my very first trip there I've got 5 straight raining days in a row.
After all sh.it happens in clusters.

See you tomorrow

as.

Quote from: klw on October 12, 2021, 09:13:08 PM
Hi AsymBacGuy  -- I don't want to become a pain asking lots of questions, I'm just trying to learn the game of Bacarrat. So if you want me to stop posting so as to not derail the flow of your thread , just say.

I have a question from a post of yours on March 15th. You wrote :-


" Say we have tested several shoes and the average shifting higher two-card point shows a median=3, that is 3 is the more likely shifting number between two sides (higher two-card points, not final results).
Thus we let go all inferior situations until we'll reach a shifting number of 3. "

I understand what 2 card point means and that we are measuring them rather than the final results.

1. We measure both sides independently ?
2. Can you show me an example of how you reach a shifting number of 3 ?


Cheers.

Higher two card initial points are getting a huge edge over the final outcomes, after all it's one of the main tool we should rely upon.
The average flow of the cards seem to get a cutoff point at 3 value, meaning that after a given side had reached three consecutive two-card higher points, the more likely situation will be to get a higher two-card hand on the opposite side.
Of course we must take into account some asymmetrical features favoring B side. Fortunately they don't come out very often, being their probability to happen just 8.6%.
In the short run variance will get a huge impact over the final results, itlr we are just taking casinos' money.

Anyway, yes, a progressive plan starting to work after three two-card higher points had fallen at given side and betting the opposite side will get us an edge. Be careful of ties that tend to erase such propensity.

An example is this:

B (8-4) P (3-4)

B (6-5) P (2-2)

B (6-K) P (9-J)

No matter how were the actual results, itlr the more likely hand will be B and you can shift the situations and the probability remains almost the same (as in the second hand an opposite situation will math favor the B side)

More generally speaking, any single baccarat shoe will present one or more 'jackpots' spots at various degrees, meaning that univocal patterns are going to show up for 'long' or at least one more time than the opposite situation.
So we must split a shoe into 'confusing' sections mixed by a fkng easy detectable world.

To do that we must consider several different subsuccessions, four of them are directly displayed on the screen (BR, Byb, sr and cr). We can add a 2-4 pace (we are registering the hands as same, S, or opposite O, by taking into account the second to last or fourth to last hand) or by setting up a 'super cr' road that is a sequence coming out by taking into account 4 back hands instead of 3 (cr). And so on.

After years of playing and studying this game, I would recommend to mainly consider BR and Byb as they are the best and easiest indicators to look for.

For that matter, sr is the best reliable indicator to know if shoes are 6-deck or 8-deck dealt before knowing the final amount of hands, and I say that with an almost certainty.

Let math experts to state otherwise, after all they are just pure losers when talking about baccarat.

But we need real fkng shoes samples to prove or disprove that, pc simulations are toilet paper.

as. 

I will post several new brick & mortar shoes soon. 

And small cards favor the players side more so than the bankers side so many times.

Also smaller third cards are receipted by the players side and once again benefiting them or outright winning the hand without a third card draw for the bankers side. 

@AsymBacGuy -- Many thanks for the explanation , it's much appreciated.

@alrelax -- Thanks and looking forward to that.

Cheers.

Last sentence says it all.  That is, for the absolute real live serious player.

Which was: " The fact that it's very very difficult to win 3 or 4 shoes in a row means that things change in way or another, otherwise casinos would be out of business."

100% spot on.  Real life at the felt.