08 Why bac could be beatable itlr

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Offline AsymBacGuy

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Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Reply #15 on: August 11, 2019, 09:01:31 pm »
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  • Randomness definition is a quite complicated issue, many think that flipping a fair coin is a valid example of randomness but it isn't.

    The real problem gamblers have to face is to ascertain whether the outcomes are simple products of a random unbeatable generation or if they are affected in some way by unrandom features.
       
    Of course and that's where  the problem stands, itlr different unrandom generations tend to converge forming random results. So we can easily think that a long succession of different baccarat results will fall no distant from the expected values.
    And this conclusion is totally correct.

    Moreover, it's a total waste of time to think to beat a so called perfect random software production (baccarat buster, etc) or, even worse, to test a given method into a succession of live outcomes coming out from different sources.

    For obvious reasons, a possible unrandomness should be always assessed in a situation where a large number of constant parameters is fulfilled. 
    The final decisive role is played by key cards distribution and nothing else.
    And since any card counting tool isn't going to give us any help, we must put in action several r.w. that must reflect such distribution, even though being approximated.

    In conclusion, baccarat is beatable if we can estimate at a decent value that the shoe we're playing is affected by some unrandomness, otherwise we are losing money.

    as.
    Next to edge sorting it's me


    Offline alrelax

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    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #16 on: August 12, 2019, 01:59:13 am »
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  • "The real problem gamblers have to face is to ascertain whether the outcomes are simple products of a random unbeatable generation or if they are affected in some way by unrandom features."

    Absolutely!
    My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

    Played well over 29,555 shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

    "Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

    Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

    Baccarat, actually a mixture of Watergate, attacking the Gotti Family and the famous ear biting Tyson fight leading to disqualification and a near riot.  Bac has all that more.
     
    EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com

    Offline AsymBacGuy

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    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #17 on: August 22, 2019, 09:31:19 pm »
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  • In few days I'll try to explain how a possible unrandomness could be the key to beat this game.

    If you think that baccarat could be beaten you are reading the right pages.

    as.



     

     
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    Offline AsymBacGuy

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    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #18 on: August 30, 2019, 09:10:38 pm »
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  • Instead of thinking about outcomes we should focus about cards distribution.
    Do not forget that a large portion of hands will be resolved by the first four cards dealt alternatively.
    For example, if we could bet about getting at least a natural point on either side this game wouldn't exist as a large part of hands will be determined right after the first cards are dealt.
    We do not know which side will be kissed by such natural but we know that more than 1/3 of the time this event will happen.
    Notice that when a natural will land, the game is a perfect coin flip proposition, meaning that there's no point to bet Banker. That is we're betting a zero negative edge game either on Player bets and on Banker bets at EZ tables.

    Of course naturals are more likely when formed by a ten-8 or ten-9 combination than by the other card possibilities and 8s and 9s favor Banker only when dealt as fifth card (asym hands).
    Therefore when we think that the next four cards will contain at least one of the possible 64 8s/9s, we know that it's more likely to get a natural.

    Now, each of the all possible 64 cards rank will be distributed asymmetrically and the more such asymmetricity will be present better is the probability to assess their impact over the next outcomes.
    And aces, 2s or 3s, for example, will involve a larger less impact than other key cards because they are going to produce more drawing hands than standing hands.
    No way itlr a drawing hand will be favorite to win, especially at Player side.
    But as players we are forced to work into an infinite succession of finite distributions.

    After long tests made on live shoes compared to pc generated shoes, we've found that the more the key ranks are asymmetrically distributed, better are the chances to guess which side will be favorite to win on very few spots.

    It's like as a given pattern should be more due than expected and obviously such thing cannot happen per every shoe dealt.

    Thus the main problem is concentrated to spot the shoes which are really playable and neglect those which aren't.
    And the fortune of casinos is that 99.99% of bac players want to guess every shoe dealt no fkng matter what.

    as.
    Next to edge sorting it's me

    Offline AsymBacGuy

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    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #19 on: August 31, 2019, 01:43:24 am »
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  • Itlr key cards are dealt asymmetrically by any means.
    Itlr drawing hands and standing/naturals points are dealt asymmetrically by any means.

    Itlr any four card point higher than the opposite four card point is going to win by a nearly 2:1 ratio and, of course, is dealt asymmetrically.

    Itlr any third card helping or not the Player side is dealt asymmetrically and the same is true about the sixth card. 

    Besides the original increasing order made manually, per any deck different ranks are dealt asymmetrically.

    Baccarat is a game of constant asymmetricity working at different values.

    as.





     

     



     
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    Offline Dilon

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    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #20 on: September 01, 2019, 01:53:46 am »
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  • Nice Asym!
    Please continue.

    Offline AsymBacGuy

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    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #21 on: September 01, 2019, 09:11:48 pm »
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  • Hi Dilon, thanks!  ;)

    Let's take the shoe as a succession of fresh decks, the card distribution is A,2,3,4,5....K
    We'll deal the cards in a baccarat game.

    First hand: Player A, 3  Banker 2,4  drawing card is 5. Player wins by 9 over B 6.
    Second hand: Player 6, 8  Banker 7, 9.  drawing card is a 10. Banker wins with a 6.
    Third hand: Player J, K  Banker Q, A. Drawing cards are 2 and 3. Banker wins with 4 vs P 2.
    Fourth hand: Player 4, 6  Banker 5, 7. drawing cards are 8 and 9. Player wins with 8 vs 1.
    Fifth hand: Player 10, Q banker J, K. Drawing cards are A and 2. Banker wins with 2 vs 1.
    Sixth hand: Player 3,5 Banker 4,6. Player wins by a natural 8.
    Seventh hand: 7, 9 Banker 8, 10  Banker wins with a natural 8.
    Eight hand: Player J, K Banker Q-A  Drawing cards are 2 and 3. Banker wins with 4 vs 2.
    After this hand the process repeats infinitely up to the end of the shoe.

    Let's see what happened in those eight hands:

    P
    B
    B
    P
    B
    P
    B
    B


    We see that only hand #2 produced an asymmetrical hand and such probability is way larger than expected (12.5% vs the real 8.4%).

    The increasing rank order of the deck of course helps the side acting last (Banker) but it's more interesting to notice what an homogeneous rank distribution (13/13) will act in terms of outcomes even though the cards are not featuring a perfect increasing order.

    as. 

       







                 

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    Offline Lungyeh

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    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #22 on: September 02, 2019, 04:02:17 am »
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  • Bro, I really tried to comprehend your approach over the years but truth be told, it?s intellectually beyond me.

    From your examples given, in real life could you predict what card sequences will take place in the subsequent hand and then bet accordingly?

    Please forgive me ignorance. Stay blessed, you and yours

    Offline AsymBacGuy

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    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #23 on: September 09, 2019, 08:55:16 pm »
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  • Hi dear Lungyeh.

    Imo and according to my studies there are only two kind of favourable card distributions for the players:

    - an astounding homogeneously rank distribution or

    - a heavy key cards distribution shifting to one side.

    Notice that I'm not talking about real outcomes as itsr (in the short run) they could take whimsical shapes.
    Thus I'm focusing about ranks and key cards.
    Everything falling in between will act in house's favor itlr, no matter if we are lucky, geniuses or whatever.

    Now, it's virtually impossible to physically put ranks and key cards for long not belonging to one of those two categories, a thing that only a software can do.

    Fortunately at the time I'm writing CSM and manually shuffled shoes can't refrain to produce favourable card distributions, especially CSM as when the same deck is "biased" it remains biased for at least 2-3 more shoes.
    Of course that doesn't mean that the same deck is going to produce the same outcomes' lines.

    At high stakes rooms where each deck is fresh, house will get a higher advantage over the players and it's not a coincidence that some serious players want to bet very few hands or not at all if things are not fitting their plan.

    We can bet everything we have on our name that it's quite easy to spot the players who make a living at this game: they perfectly adhere to the black jack rule where no mid-entry is allowed as they'll join the table from the start.

    as. 
    Next to edge sorting it's me

    Offline AsymBacGuy

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    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #24 on: September 11, 2019, 09:07:04 pm »
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  • Dr B. Kaiser magistrally stated in his book that
    people who make their living at numbers are always more comfortable dealing with the high likelihood of something's not happening than the slim chance of a rare event's occurring

    In some sense, rarity works for casinos as give the players the illusion to beat the game (bac players like to bet toward long homogenous situations) and common events work for serious and patient players unless rarity come out.

    Therefore in order to consistently win we must restrict the rarity appearance trying to take advantage of the most likely situations.

    And only an accurate card distribution study could help us to define better the issue. 

    as. 
    Next to edge sorting it's me

    Offline AsymBacGuy

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    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #25 on: Yesterday at 08:52:40 pm »
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  • I know at least a dozen of players making a living at this game and the common trait is they make very few bets. Some of them know a 0.1% of what me and you know about the game, yet they are long term winners.
    Mathematically this move is sound. Since the game remains EV-, the probability to be ahead of something will be higher when betting very few hands, say that the best move is to wager everything only one time.
    If in this precise instant every bac player in the world will wager Banker, casinos will lose money as B>P even though Banker is payed less than 1:1.
    After this hypothetical hand, casinos will win money no matter what.
    Obviously if casinos will lose money, players will get something of it.

    And altogether obvious is the fact that the more we stay and play the better we are liked by casinos.

    Ask the casinos if they would like to fade ten $20.000 wagers made on ten different occasions or if they'd like more ten $20k hands made on the same session.
    Mathematically it doesn't change their expectation. In practical terms this simple different approach means a lot.

    More on that later.

    as. 
    Next to edge sorting it's me