08 Why bac could be beatable itlr

BetSelection.cc

Please login or register.

Topic: Why bac could be beatable itlr  (Read 5068 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Lungyeh

  • Steady Member
  • **
  • Posts: 97
    • View Profile
Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Reply #45 on: October 28, 2019, 02:34:49 am »
  • ReplyReply
  • Asymbac, in this Marina Bay Sands casino in Singapore, they have 2 Baccarat tables where after every hand, the cards are put back into the shuffling machine to be reshuffled and dealt again. There is no break, no end of shoe or change of card. Customers do not get to touch the cards. The dealer opens the cards and handle the cards. They change the whole 6 decks after say &-10 hours and the process repeats itself.

    Is this a better chance to win?


    Offline AsymBacGuy

    • Moderator
    • *****
    • Posts: 784
      • View Profile
    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #46 on: October 28, 2019, 10:03:07 pm »
  • ReplyReply
  • Sorry Lungyeh, I've cleared some of my inappropriate posts, I have nothing against MBS in Singapore or any other casino in the world for that matter.

    Back to your question.

    Baccarat tables offering continuos shuffling are a totally different beast.

    Of course when proper conditions are met, any card game is beatable by definition.
    If outcomes are provided by a CSM, the issue is more complicated as any hand is a new hand springing from a fresh deck. Maybe certain card tracking techniques could work.
    I suggest to search the CSM topic at Black Jack forums.

    Anyway and even though the card removal effect is zero, CSMs still work physically.
    We need to collect a lot of CSM data acting on the same deck and then filtering the results by a multiparameter factor. Then to analyze if a kind of substantial unrandomness shows up after a given succession of cards (specific ranks).

    My guess is that CSM decks are either totally unbeatable or, less less likely, wonderfully beatable (that is more beatable than normal live shoes).

    For sure many bac players like to touch (say destroy) the cards so I do not expect much success from CSM tables.

    as.
    Next to edge sorting it's me

    Offline AsymBacGuy

    • Moderator
    • *****
    • Posts: 784
      • View Profile
    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #47 on: October 29, 2019, 10:08:36 am »
  • ReplyReply
  • I've contacted a couple of peers confirming that CSM shuffled shoes are unbeatable.

    Therefore the new thread title is "why bac could be beatable itlr PROVIDING CARDS ARE PLAYED UP TO THE END OF THE SHOE"

    as.
    Next to edge sorting it's me

    Offline Albalaha

    • Hero Member
    • *****
    • Posts: 1971
    • Gender: Male
    • Learn about randomness before trying to fight that
      • View Profile
    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #48 on: October 30, 2019, 09:35:50 am »
  • ReplyReply
  • In all my experiences, shoes doesn't matter. One must know how to play in good, bad and worst cases as randomness will throw all to us. We can't get a "better than all" bet with any way to pick our bet.
    Email: earnsumit@gmail.com - VIsit my blog: http://albalaha.lefora.com

    Offline alrelax

    • B&M Player since 1980
    • Administrator
    • *****
    • Posts: 3235
    • Gender: Male
    • 'Caring for Kids' Nonprofit Children's Assistance
      • View Profile
    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #49 on: October 30, 2019, 10:09:17 am »
  • ReplyReply
  • Sure you can and if you convince yourself otherwise you will miss all the great opportunities.  Shoes you are able to capitalize on for many reasons you will lose out on it's as simple as that. The one main problem as what was brought out already is that people convince themselves that those same opportunities will always repeat themselves when they will not.
    My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

    Played well over 29,555 shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

    "Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

    Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

    Baccarat, actually a mixture of Watergate, attacking the Gotti Family and the famous ear biting Tyson fight leading to disqualification and a near riot.  Bac has all that more.
     
    EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com

    Offline AsymBacGuy

    • Moderator
    • *****
    • Posts: 784
      • View Profile
    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #50 on: October 31, 2019, 09:21:04 pm »
  • ReplyReply
  • In all my experiences, shoes doesn't matter. One must know how to play in good, bad and worst cases as randomness will throw all to us. We can't get a "better than all" bet with any way to pick our bet.

    It depends about what we want to assign to the randomness definition.
    The fact that most of bac players think that any shoe is randomly produced doesn't mean that it is really randomly formed.
    Or, even worse, that some more likely situations (B streaks vs B singles, etc) are more due in humanly considered intervals. 

    Randomness takes a primary importance in relation to probability calculus as probability needs pure random propositions to be properly assessed.

    Itlr unrandom events will dilute more and more up to the point where infinite unrandom results will converge to supposedly random results.

    Therefore imo there's no way we can't limit pure randomness, instead we should find the spots where the unrandomness takes a so huge impact that the negative math edge we have to face is overcome within short terms.

    Key word is "collective", a term coined by the best randomness expert of all times.

    as.
    Next to edge sorting it's me

    Offline AsymBacGuy

    • Moderator
    • *****
    • Posts: 784
      • View Profile
    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #51 on: November 02, 2019, 10:19:18 pm »
  • ReplyReply
  • Attempts made to try to read randomness are totally futile, better to spot the situations where unrandomness could take a substantial role.
    And to get a better idea of what a shoe is producing we must think in term of ranges of probability.

    Mathematically our best move to get ahead of something into a supposedly random world is to bet everything we want to risk just on one hand. We are still playing an EV- game, of course.
    Any move different from that will be the casino's fortune. 
     
    Even if the game isn't perfect randomly produced, best action to take is still trying to get an edge within very short terms and by wagering huge into over selected spots. We want the math to be on our side. Always.

    If I'd say that certain rare spots are offering a 70% winning probability nobody would be interested to know how and when those spots can come out. No bac player is willing to register several shoes then betting a hand that yet gets a 30% probability of losing.
    Mostly those rare EV+ spots comes out from a possible RTM effect but we know that whether the game is random it's impossible or very very unlikely to transform an EV- game into a profitable game.

    I'm deadly sure that certain acute players are playing a kind of game close or equal to a zero negative edge just by wagering very few spots. Technically is to bet P when an asymmetrical hand is huge unlikely, maybe hoping that the actual card distribution favors P side as an additional tool.
    Or, most likely, betting a restrict number of B hands knowing that the asym feature will be more likely than expected.

    Probability gambling is a game of streaks intended in a wide way, of course we want to play games (baccarat) where each event will be slightly affected by previous situations, especially when we have reasons to think that cards are not properly shuffled.

    as.
    Next to edge sorting it's me

    Offline AsymBacGuy

    • Moderator
    • *****
    • Posts: 784
      • View Profile
    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #52 on: November 06, 2019, 09:56:15 pm »
  • ReplyReply
  • According to our tests, one of the best tool we can use to know whether a deck is properly shuffled or not is about the "natural" back to back probability.
    And of course about the asym probability.

    Even though a substantial error occurs for variance issues (less likely card combinations producing the same effect), this is one of the best tool to get a better idea of what's coming out.

    as.



    Next to edge sorting it's me

    Offline AsymBacGuy

    • Moderator
    • *****
    • Posts: 784
      • View Profile
    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #53 on: November 09, 2019, 10:09:54 pm »
  • ReplyReply
  • Consider this simple method.

    Our plan is to detect when a natural point will come out, no matter which side will be kissed by such natural.
    The probability any natural will come out is 34.1%, a slight higher than a dozen will show up at roulette.
    Without any doubt, when a natural comes out a symmetrical hand will be formed, meaning that betting banker is a fool option.

    At some extent, any natural apparition translates into an idi.ot choice (when wagering B) and a fair situation when wagering P.

    Since a 34.1% probability is way higher than a 8.4% probability, we know that a back to back probability is quite more likely even though half considered (as we can't bet both sides).
    Naturally there are many levels where a natural could come out, a back to back probability is a zero gap, a natural followed by another different hand is a 1-gap probability and so on.

    Differently to roulette, the overall natural probability per any shoe is more restricted as we can't cancel 8s and 9s and zero value cards from the deck.
    Especially whether 8s and 9s should be more ore less concentrated on some portions of the deck.
    Naturally a perfect 8s/9s pace is out of order for obvious reasons and we still have to fight other less likely card combinations forming a natural.

    Same about asym hands.
    What we really want when betting Banker is the asym hand production and nothing else.
    Everything different from that is a long term EV- move, unless our B bets are able to catch a better than 8.4% probability.
    Coincidentally such probability is nearly half of the probability to get a natural on either side.

    Instead of guessing which side will win, we should try to focus about those two probabilities, as they are the most likely to produce the actual outcomes. Itlr.

    as.
    Next to edge sorting it's me