08﻿ Why bac could be beatable itlr

### Topic: Why bac could be beatable itlr  (Read 14746 times)

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#### AsymBacGuy

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##### Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Reply #105 on: March 22, 2020, 10:32:02 pm »
• Making things in a more complicated way, we could set up many different r.w.'s utillizing a pace different than 1.
After all the general law of independence of the results should work no matter how deep we want to classify the outcomes, right?

Thus a BPBBPPBPBBBBBBPBPPPPBPBBPPB succession could be

1-2-1-1-2-2-1-2-1-1-1-1-1-1-2-1-2-2-2-2-1-2-1-1-2-2-1 (1 pace) or

1-1-2-1-1-1-1-2-2-2-1-1-2-1 (2 pace) or

1-1-1-1-1-1-2-2-2 (3 pace)

Again summing the two adjacent numbers from left to right we'll get:

1 pace) 3-3-2-3-4-3-3-3-2-2-2-2-2-3-3-3-4-4-4-3-3-3-2-3-4-3 (runs: 12)

2 pace) 2-3-3-2-2-2-3-4-4-3-2-3-3 (runs: eight)

3 pace) 2-2-2-2-2-3-4-4 (runs: 3)

Skipping certain outcomes provides a better evaluation of the place selection impact, that is the main factor by which certain subsequences must be considered as collectives or not.
And naturally in this example the best indicator is the number of runs.

We should convert what others call "stop loss" or stop wins" cutoff points with the simple number of runs, especially if we want to disprove a real randomness.

Without boring to test many shoes, it's intuitive that a kind of asymmetrical force is acting along the way on the vast majority of shoes dealt, our task should be directed to spot the shoes where such asym force will be more likely to act on certain points.

Now let's sat we want to follow two opposite players, one player A wishing to parlay his bet up to 5 steps toward a new same number situation (being 2, 3 or 4) and the other one B wishing to make a progressive plan toward not getting same number clusters (up to 5 steps).

Player A will win anytime 5 or more consecutive homogeneous situations will show up (2-2..-3-3..-4-4.. 3-3, etc) and player B will win anytime a given number won't be clustered up to 5 times.

From a math point of view both players will get the same results getting different W/L frequencies.
In the practice things go quite differently.

as.
Next to edge sorting it's me

#### AsymBacGuy

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##### Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Reply #106 on: March 23, 2020, 02:17:43 am »
• Summarizing:

- no way you can find a long term profitable betting plan without speculating that outcomes are not perfectly randomly placed as random bac outcomes are unbeatable by a 1 billion degree.

-  to ascertain outcomes are not properly random produced only place selection and probability after events tools can help you by strict scientifically accurate assessments. Some bac productions are better than others, meaning they involve a higher unrandomness factor.

- best way to take an advantage without suffering the variance impact is by looking just for one unit profit per a given amount of hands.

- no matter how's your strategy and which side you choose to bet, each set of two consecutive wagers must get a way higher 75% probability to win. Considering as Banker side as a steady advantaged option is one of the biggest mistake to make. Asym hands favoviring Banker don't come out so often, especially whether consecutively taken.

-  the game cannot be altered or predicted by human considerations, otherwise it wouldn't exist.

as.
Next to edge sorting it's me

#### alrelax

• B&M Player since 1980
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##### Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Reply #107 on: March 23, 2020, 03:43:41 am »
• Summarizing:

- no way you can find a long term profitable betting plan without speculating that outcomes are not perfectly randomly placed as random bac outcomes are unbeatable by a 1 billion degree.

-  to ascertain outcomes are not properly random produced only place selection and probability after events tools can help you by strict scientifically accurate assessments. Some bac productions are better than others, meaning they involve a higher unrandomness factor.

- best way to take an advantage without suffering the variance impact is by looking just for one unit profit per a given amount of hands.

- no matter how's your strategy and which side you choose to bet, each set of two consecutive wagers must get a way higher 75% probability to win. Considering as Banker side as a steady advantaged option is one of the biggest mistake to make. Asym hands favoviring Banker don't come out so often, especially whether consecutively taken.

-  the game cannot be altered or predicted by human considerations, otherwise it wouldn't exist.

as.

Explaining certain finds are difficult.  Great writing.

Add my Sections & Turning Points and a player can start capitalize!

And so many baccarat players forget about that 5th card coming out that more often favors the players side rather than the bankers.   Especially with something that's foreseeable within a section.

Such as when the players have zero or even a 1, so often players pull that big card meaning a six, seven or eight and it puts the bankers out of the game for that hand or the players have that three, four, five or six and the players pull that small card again it puts the bankers out of the game for that hand.  And it happens repeatedly within a section like three or four players to one Banker, four or five players to one or two bankers then another one or two or three players to one banker and then three or four players to one or two bankers and then a little mini run comes out of 5, 6, 7, 8 players to one or two Bankers before it straightens out.

And it's so easy to capitalize on all those players versus waiting for the bank to get strong. At least in my opinion, you know what I'm talking about.
My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

Played well over 29,969 shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

"Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

Baccarat, actually a mixture of Watergate, attacking the Gotti Family and the famous ear biting Tyson fight leading to disqualification and a near riot.  Bac has all that more.

EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com

#### AsymBacGuy

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• Posts: 848
##### Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Reply #108 on: March 23, 2020, 04:22:55 am »
• Dear friend, I'm just looking forward to play with you and Lung (and maybe few others), I mean serious money I know three of us get.

Let's wait this fkng Covid-19 stuff stops.

as.

Next to edge sorting it's me

#### alrelax

• B&M Player since 1980
• Posts: 3359
• Gender:
• 'Caring for Kids' Nonprofit Children's Assistance
##### Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Reply #109 on: March 23, 2020, 05:04:46 am »
• Oh yeah, don't forget some of the other things I wrote and one of the most important is  0, 1, 2, 3 ties and how things seem to stay the same no matter if it's players or ones and twos or whatever, but I find that holds true more so towards strong  players or chopping rather than Banker's clumping together, reference the low amounts of ties such as what's in these two shoes in the link.

https://betselection.cc/wagering-intricacies/heavy-player-bet-what-is-being-presented/
My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

Played well over 29,969 shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

"Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

Baccarat, actually a mixture of Watergate, attacking the Gotti Family and the famous ear biting Tyson fight leading to disqualification and a near riot.  Bac has all that more.

EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com

#### AsymBacGuy

• Moderator
• Posts: 848
##### Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Reply #110 on: March 23, 2020, 10:06:28 pm »
• Ties are a complicated issue as any method must get rid of those "unresolved BP hands".
Yet they exist consuming space and cards.
In addition ties are way more likely when 6 cards are utilized to form a hand.

I fear that shoes containing a lot of ties perhaps are less manageable when using a "fixed" plan, but it would take a lot of time to ascertain their real impact over the different registrations I've discussed here.

Surely after a tie future real BP probabilities change, very slightly maybe still they change.

It should be interesting to study how many cards are utilized per each shoe in relationship of the r.w.'s applied, for example.
Notoriously most likely winning hands are formed by only 4 cards then by 5 cards. When more cards are utilized to produce a hand a sort of dilution effect may come out.

Anyway I firmly believe that any valuable method, system or approach when dictating to bet B or P that side must contain a mathematical advantaged situation on the first two cards dealt.
Therefore if I passed 70 minutes to wait for a profitable situation and I'm betting Player, I want Player to show a standing or natural point and not a K-4 catching a third card 4 vs a Banker standing 7.
Of course we could win a hand as underdog (or losing it as huge favorite), I'd prefer to lose it being favorite.

as.
Next to edge sorting it's me

#### AsymBacGuy

• Moderator
• Posts: 848
##### Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Reply #111 on: March 23, 2020, 10:59:09 pm »
• Now suppose that in order to build our new sequences, instead of considering normal BP results we use the blue and red spots of the three displayed derived roads (big eye boy, small road and cockroach road).
Again we decide to assign the 1 value to red spots and 2 to blue spots.
Then we sum the two adjacent numbers from left to right.

Do have those new sequences the same features belonging to the sequences derived by the original BP succession?

as.

Next to edge sorting it's me