08 Why bac could be beatable itlr

BetSelection.cc

Please login or register.

Topic: Why bac could be beatable itlr  (Read 24817 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Online alrelax

  • B&M Player since 1980
  • Administrator
  • *****
  • Posts: 3579
  • Gender: Male
  • 'Caring for Kids' Nonprofit Children's Assistance
    • View Profile
Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Reply #165 on: June 23, 2020, 12:39:47 pm »
  • ReplyReply
  • Asym, I fixed the card, it should be correct now, let me know if it is not.

    As far as the blank spaces between the events, a lot of people score the shoe on a horizontal going to the right. If it makes banker, it's one spot and if it cuts to the player the next spot would be to the right, it would be player.  If it makes player three more times, players would be under that second player going down 3 spots, so it will be a total of four players. If it doesn't make a repeat it would be blank and it would move to the next spot to the right.

    Same way the Big Road does on the scoreboard, the same way. A lot of people do not do or vertical, they do the actual Big Road on the scorecard and make their own notes on it. So the bottom line is the blank spaces just means that it did not make a repeat Banker or Player underneath the first Banker/Player.
    My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

    Played well over 29,969 shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

    "Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

    Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

    Baccarat, actually a mixture of Watergate, attacking the Gotti Family and the famous ear biting Tyson fight leading to disqualification and a near riot.  Bac has all that more.
     
    EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com


    Offline RickK

    • Rising Member
    • **
    • Posts: 12
      • View Profile
    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #166 on: June 23, 2020, 12:59:13 pm »
  • ReplyReply
  • Alrelax...what you've described is pretty standard..maybe it's my screen, but what I was referring to are the blank "columns"...in the first 10 "event columns" there are 2 blank, 1 B, 1 P, 1 B, 1 P, then 4 blank..Big Road does not have blank or empty columns between events..just wondering if that is a typo or if it meant something..

    Online alrelax

    • B&M Player since 1980
    • Administrator
    • *****
    • Posts: 3579
    • Gender: Male
    • 'Caring for Kids' Nonprofit Children's Assistance
      • View Profile
    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #167 on: June 23, 2020, 01:03:07 pm »
  • ReplyReply
  • Must be your screen, I don't see any empty columns, it's an exact copy of a Big Road.
    My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

    Played well over 29,969 shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

    "Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

    Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

    Baccarat, actually a mixture of Watergate, attacking the Gotti Family and the famous ear biting Tyson fight leading to disqualification and a near riot.  Bac has all that more.
     
    EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com

    Offline RickK

    • Rising Member
    • **
    • Posts: 12
      • View Profile
    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #168 on: June 23, 2020, 02:37:34 pm »
  • ReplyReply
  • Ok...as mentioned in my first post on this issue, I was assuming that the first "row" on Asym's post was the "heading" of a scorecard (or Big Road) of a shoe...it apparently is the first actual "result" of an event..apologize for the confusion......
    ..

    Offline RickK

    • Rising Member
    • **
    • Posts: 12
      • View Profile
    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #169 on: June 23, 2020, 03:01:51 pm »
  • ReplyReply
  • Now back to the more important issue, what are we looking for in terms of asym hands, naturals, hands bet/won, etc. ? ...the post is showing B/P hand results, but not indicating where or when any of these other occurrences took place...

    Offline AsymBacGuy

    • Moderator
    • *****
    • Posts: 915
      • View Profile
    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #170 on: June 28, 2020, 07:52:49 pm »
  • ReplyReply
  • My bad.
    Thanks Al and sorry Rickk and everyone.
    After posting the shoe everything appeared correct on my screen.

    Let's try again with a simpler form:

    B
    P
    BB
    PP
    BB
    PP
    B
    P
    B
    P
    B
    P
    BB
    PPPPPPPPP
    B
    P
    B
    P
    B
    PP
    BB
    PP
    BBB
    PPP
    BB
    P
    B
    P
    B
    PP
    B
    P
    B
    PPPPP
    B
    P
    BB
    P
    BBBBBB
    PPP


    as.
    Next to edge sorting it's me

    Offline AsymBacGuy

    • Moderator
    • *****
    • Posts: 915
      • View Profile
    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #171 on: June 28, 2020, 10:13:35 pm »
  • ReplyReply
  • Mathematically our long term EV is in direct relationship between asym and sym betting ranges.

    For example, say a portion of the shoe presents eight straight sym hands and the actual outcomes of those sym hands are producing an eight Banker streak.
    If we were betting Banker each hand belonging to this streak we may think to be lucky or geniuses. Actually we are severely losing money.
    On the other hand, the same sym 8-hand pattern could form a Player streak of the same lenght and now a steady Player betting cannot get us other than a zero negative edge at least.

    Since the probability to get one of the possible 256 different BP patterns on those sym situations remains the same, it's quite obvious that there's no point to bet Banker at any of those eight sym hands.

    Thus the Banker side should be wagered just about the probability to form or not an asym hand among a very restricted range of hands.
    This one is the only wise math approach working itlr as the math advantage must overcome the negative HE.

    We should remember again that most asym hands edge comes from 5s and 4s Banker initial points and, at a lesser degree. from 3s.

    Think that many Banker 5s and 4s initial points will cross standing/natural Player situations, therefore transforming potential shifted events (that is asym hands) into mere symmetrical circumstances.

    In some way we could infer that the probability to form a 4 or 5 Banker initial point is somewhat dependent about the previous situations and we should always be focused about the mere asym/sym probability.
    Let's say that as long as no 4 or 5 (and, at a lesser degree a 3 point) Banker initial point will be formed, we are betting a close to zero negative edge game when wagering P side.

    In any case, we want to add a further parameter, that is how asym hands went in our shoe.

    Say we know for sure that the actual shoe is presenting such sequence (S= symmetrical hands and N= non symmetrical hands):

    S-S-S-S-N-S-N-S-S-S-S-N-N-S-S-S-S-S-S-N-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-N-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-N-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-N-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S

    The are no other perfect plays than wagering Banker at hands #5, #7, #12, #13, #20, #28, #42, #64.
    For now we cannot care less about the real BP outcomes, after all the winning probability of such sequence is a long math proposition of 0.5 (S) and 0.5793 (N) events.
    Quite likely not every N spot will form a Banker hand, not mentioning that at S spots everything will be possible.

    Now let's compare the same deck N or S situations with the new distribution.
    Of course the probability to get the exact N or S distribution will be zero and, by an obvious higher degree, the same results.

    Nonetheless, the clustering N or S effect will seem to remain the same as cards tend not to be properly shuffled.

    It's like playing a game where we might be very very slight favored or hugely favored at various degrees, totally getting rid of the potential situation to find ourselves facing the exact counterparts.

    as. 
    Next to edge sorting it's me

    Offline AsymBacGuy

    • Moderator
    • *****
    • Posts: 915
      • View Profile
    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #172 on: June 28, 2020, 11:25:40 pm »
  • ReplyReply
  • Think about math percentages first.

    If we would bet Banker side five hands long then getting at least one asym hand, we're getting a long term advantage.
    If by taking advantage of other bac features we want to wager Player side, we want all sym hands to be formed, meaning we're not losijg a dime itlr.

    Asym hands that went "wrong" for B side just endorse the probability to get sym hands on the very next outcome as the probability to get back to back asym hands is distant. We surely do not want to wager a side being payed 0.95:1 than 1:1.

    By the same way of thinking, a B natural is going to produce a way lesser impact than the same P natural.

    Next time we'll consider naturals.

    as.
    Next to edge sorting it's me

    Offline RickK

    • Rising Member
    • **
    • Posts: 12
      • View Profile
    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #173 on: June 30, 2020, 11:55:19 am »
  • ReplyReply
  • "If we would bet Banker side five hands long then getting at least one asym hand, we're getting a long term advantage.
    If by taking advantage of other bac features we want to wager Player side, we want all sym hands to be formed, meaning we're not losijg a dime itlr."

    as, could you provide an explanation to help understand what this means ?...thanks in advance