08 Why bac could be beatable itlr

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Online alrelax

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Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Reply #165 on: June 23, 2020, 12:39:47 pm »
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  • Asym, I fixed the card, it should be correct now, let me know if it is not.

    As far as the blank spaces between the events, a lot of people score the shoe on a horizontal going to the right. If it makes banker, it's one spot and if it cuts to the player the next spot would be to the right, it would be player.  If it makes player three more times, players would be under that second player going down 3 spots, so it will be a total of four players. If it doesn't make a repeat it would be blank and it would move to the next spot to the right.

    Same way the Big Road does on the scoreboard, the same way. A lot of people do not do or vertical, they do the actual Big Road on the scorecard and make their own notes on it. So the bottom line is the blank spaces just means that it did not make a repeat Banker or Player underneath the first Banker/Player.
    My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

    Played well over 30,300 shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

    "Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

    Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

    Baccarat, actually a mixture of Watergate, attacking the Gotti Family and the famous ear biting Tyson fight leading to disqualification and a near riot.  Bac has all that more.
     
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    Offline RickK

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    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #166 on: June 23, 2020, 12:59:13 pm »
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  • Alrelax...what you've described is pretty standard..maybe it's my screen, but what I was referring to are the blank "columns"...in the first 10 "event columns" there are 2 blank, 1 B, 1 P, 1 B, 1 P, then 4 blank..Big Road does not have blank or empty columns between events..just wondering if that is a typo or if it meant something..

    Online alrelax

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    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #167 on: June 23, 2020, 01:03:07 pm »
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  • Must be your screen, I don't see any empty columns, it's an exact copy of a Big Road.
    My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

    Played well over 30,300 shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

    "Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

    Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

    Baccarat, actually a mixture of Watergate, attacking the Gotti Family and the famous ear biting Tyson fight leading to disqualification and a near riot.  Bac has all that more.
     
    EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com

    Offline RickK

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    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #168 on: June 23, 2020, 02:37:34 pm »
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  • Ok...as mentioned in my first post on this issue, I was assuming that the first "row" on Asym's post was the "heading" of a scorecard (or Big Road) of a shoe...it apparently is the first actual "result" of an event..apologize for the confusion......
    ..

    Offline RickK

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    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #169 on: June 23, 2020, 03:01:51 pm »
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  • Now back to the more important issue, what are we looking for in terms of asym hands, naturals, hands bet/won, etc. ? ...the post is showing B/P hand results, but not indicating where or when any of these other occurrences took place...

    Offline AsymBacGuy

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    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #170 on: June 28, 2020, 07:52:49 pm »
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  • My bad.
    Thanks Al and sorry Rickk and everyone.
    After posting the shoe everything appeared correct on my screen.

    Let's try again with a simpler form:

    B
    P
    BB
    PP
    BB
    PP
    B
    P
    B
    P
    B
    P
    BB
    PPPPPPPPP
    B
    P
    B
    P
    B
    PP
    BB
    PP
    BBB
    PPP
    BB
    P
    B
    P
    B
    PP
    B
    P
    B
    PPPPP
    B
    P
    BB
    P
    BBBBBB
    PPP


    as.
    Next to edge sorting it's me

    Offline AsymBacGuy

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    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #171 on: June 28, 2020, 10:13:35 pm »
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  • Mathematically our long term EV is in direct relationship between asym and sym betting ranges.

    For example, say a portion of the shoe presents eight straight sym hands and the actual outcomes of those sym hands are producing an eight Banker streak.
    If we were betting Banker each hand belonging to this streak we may think to be lucky or geniuses. Actually we are severely losing money.
    On the other hand, the same sym 8-hand pattern could form a Player streak of the same lenght and now a steady Player betting cannot get us other than a zero negative edge at least.

    Since the probability to get one of the possible 256 different BP patterns on those sym situations remains the same, it's quite obvious that there's no point to bet Banker at any of those eight sym hands.

    Thus the Banker side should be wagered just about the probability to form or not an asym hand among a very restricted range of hands.
    This one is the only wise math approach working itlr as the math advantage must overcome the negative HE.

    We should remember again that most asym hands edge comes from 5s and 4s Banker initial points and, at a lesser degree. from 3s.

    Think that many Banker 5s and 4s initial points will cross standing/natural Player situations, therefore transforming potential shifted events (that is asym hands) into mere symmetrical circumstances.

    In some way we could infer that the probability to form a 4 or 5 Banker initial point is somewhat dependent about the previous situations and we should always be focused about the mere asym/sym probability.
    Let's say that as long as no 4 or 5 (and, at a lesser degree a 3 point) Banker initial point will be formed, we are betting a close to zero negative edge game when wagering P side.

    In any case, we want to add a further parameter, that is how asym hands went in our shoe.

    Say we know for sure that the actual shoe is presenting such sequence (S= symmetrical hands and N= non symmetrical hands):

    S-S-S-S-N-S-N-S-S-S-S-N-N-S-S-S-S-S-S-N-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-N-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-N-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-N-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S

    The are no other perfect plays than wagering Banker at hands #5, #7, #12, #13, #20, #28, #42, #64.
    For now we cannot care less about the real BP outcomes, after all the winning probability of such sequence is a long math proposition of 0.5 (S) and 0.5793 (N) events.
    Quite likely not every N spot will form a Banker hand, not mentioning that at S spots everything will be possible.

    Now let's compare the same deck N or S situations with the new distribution.
    Of course the probability to get the exact N or S distribution will be zero and, by an obvious higher degree, the same results.

    Nonetheless, the clustering N or S effect will seem to remain the same as cards tend not to be properly shuffled.

    It's like playing a game where we might be very very slight favored or hugely favored at various degrees, totally getting rid of the potential situation to find ourselves facing the exact counterparts.

    as. 
    Next to edge sorting it's me

    Offline AsymBacGuy

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    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #172 on: June 28, 2020, 11:25:40 pm »
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  • Think about math percentages first.

    If we would bet Banker side five hands long then getting at least one asym hand, we're getting a long term advantage.
    If by taking advantage of other bac features we want to wager Player side, we want all sym hands to be formed, meaning we're not losijg a dime itlr.

    Asym hands that went "wrong" for B side just endorse the probability to get sym hands on the very next outcome as the probability to get back to back asym hands is distant. We surely do not want to wager a side being payed 0.95:1 than 1:1.

    By the same way of thinking, a B natural is going to produce a way lesser impact than the same P natural.

    Next time we'll consider naturals.

    as.
    Next to edge sorting it's me

    Offline RickK

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    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #173 on: June 30, 2020, 11:55:19 am »
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  • "If we would bet Banker side five hands long then getting at least one asym hand, we're getting a long term advantage.
    If by taking advantage of other bac features we want to wager Player side, we want all sym hands to be formed, meaning we're not losijg a dime itlr."

    as, could you provide an explanation to help understand what this means ?...thanks in advance

    Offline AsymBacGuy

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    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #174 on: July 05, 2020, 09:50:19 pm »
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  • Hi Rickk!

    We can't hope to be long term winners without getting a positive EV, no matter how is taken.

    Globally we know that our EV is negative, being slight negative (0.18 is the difference) by constantly wagering Banker side.

    Math speaking, there are only two situations to bet favourably itlr:

    - catching more asym hands than expected while wagering B side;

    - NOT catching asym hands while wagering P side.

    Example.
    An infinite run of six hands are dealt (consecutively or not, it doesn't matter) and we want to see what's our EV depending upon which side we would like to bet.
    If all those six hands are symmetrical, we know that itlr we'll win half of them regardless of the side we choose to bet.
    Thus the EV is:

    Banker bets: (0.95 x 0.5) x 3 - (1 x 0.5) x 3 = 1.425 - 1.5 = -0.075

    Player bets: (1 x 0.5) x 3 - (1 x 0.5) x 3 = 0

    That means that betting a $100 unit we'll get on average a $296.25 return on our money when betting Banker and a $300 return while wagering Player side.
    Same proportions could be extracted regarding eight hands or ten hands or about hands of any lenght.

    When a single asym hand comes out, things abruptly shift toward Banker side, altering hugely the normal EV flow just for that very hand.

    Now the asym hand EV on Banker bets is 0.95 x 0.5793 - 1 x 0.4207 = 0.1296

    Do the math and you'll see that itlr an invincible betting plan could be oriented to spot the situations when an asym hand apparition is more likely within a more restricted than expected range or, at a way lesser degree, that a given shoe sequence is more likely to produce more natural sym events. In the former case we will of course privilege B side, in the latter the P choice.

    Naturally the 0.5 (sym) and 0.5793 (B/P asym) probability values are just general values, yet the payment remains the same (B=0.95:1 and P=1:1), that is hugely shifted toward one side.

    And we know that not all asym hands will get the 0.5793 probability, it's just a cumulative math situation.
    Most asym hands power comes from Banker 5 points facing a P drawing hand, then Banker 4 points facing a P drawing hand and at a way lesser degree B 3 points facing a P drawing hand.
    6 B points dealing a 6 or a 7 third card to P side are just lowering the negative egde.

    Of course all standing-natural/standing-natural situations (belonging to the sym spots category) itlr will advantage Player side as first they are payed 1:1 instead of 0.95:1, then any Banker 6 point facing any standing Player situation must stand prompting a sure negative math proposition.

    Tomorrow we'll see how to consider outcomes in terms of asym/sym actual distribution.

    as.
    Next to edge sorting it's me

    Offline AsymBacGuy

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    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #175 on: July 06, 2020, 11:15:38 pm »
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  • At this point it should be clear that our long term results are in direct relationship between the different EVs working on those two very diverse situations.

    Many craps players like to place odds at pass lines or don't pass lines after the point is established. Normally the HE is never zero, say very close to zero but never zero.
    At baccarat we've seen that as long as no asym hands will be formed, wagering Player side is a way better option than betting Banker as the payment is 1:1 and not 0.95:1.
    That means that on symmetrical hands virtually no card distributions could alter significantly the Banker negative EV.

    Reasoning in this way we could build a result plan just on the very first four cards dealt.
    As long as Player draws and Banker do not show a 5, 4 or a 3, we are really in good shape when betting Player.
    Conversely, this is the exact situation we want to look for when wagering Banker.

    Going to less likely situations, we see that any standing/natural situation can only advantage Player side itlr, even if in that shoe any Player 7 point will lose everytime to a Banker natural.

    No asym hand = no Banker party!

    What's the real probability to get the Player drawing/ Banker 5,4 or 3 initial point situation?

    It's 7.72%

    Meaning that 87.05% of the times our Banker bets are long term losers.
    And of course that 12.95% of the times are huge long term winners.

    It could happen that some shoes are so badly shuffled that the asym formation would be more or less likely in many portions of the shoe, we can take into account the consecutiveness of the asym apparition, the quality of asym situations etc.

    Say you want to split the shoe into 6-hands betting portions (bet for real or fictionally). At a 8-deck shoe you'll get around 12 situations (ties ignored).
    It's impossible that every situation will be symmetrically placed, thus some portions must involve a B advantage (asym apparition).
    Nevertheless most portions are symmetrically placed getting a very different EV depending upon which side we like to bet.
    It could happen that one or more asym hands will show up within every single portion of this shoe (thus making profitable a B wagering), but I guess it's more likely we'll hit a slot jackpot.

    More likely and knowing that the asym hand apparition probability is around 8%, some portions will be asym hands free.
    The average probability is that a slight lesser amount of such portions will be symmetrically placed. Actually a balanced occurence of asym hands cannot get a steady pace for obvious reasons, so we could infer that more than one asym hands might show up in one or more portions. Therefore lowering (or increasing) the probability on subsequent portions.

    Not giving a damn about the actual results, we know that the shoe is producing an average amount of pure sym or asym/sym portions.
    Portions formed by all sym hands cannot elicit other than a Player betting. On the contrary, portions containing one or possibly more asym hands will elicit a Banker wagering.

    Combined with the very slight propensity to get the opposite result, asym hand quality and actual outcome, general asymmetricity of card distributions and some other features regarding specific random walks, it's not that difficult to spot the situations where our EV will be neutral or hugely shifted toward one side or another.

    as.
    Next to edge sorting it's me

    Offline RickK

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    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #176 on: July 12, 2020, 03:16:44 am »
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  • Had some questions with regard to the portion of this post listed below....

    "Reasoning in this way we could build a result plan just on the very first four cards dealt.
    As long as Player draws and Banker do not show a 5, 4 or a 3, we are really in good shape when betting Player.
    Conversely, this is the exact situation we want to look for when wagering Banker.

    Going to less likely situations, we see that any standing/natural situation can only advantage Player side itlr, even if in that shoe any Player 7 point will lose everytime to a Banker natural."

    1)  with regard to the Banker side total after a Player draw...assuming you didn't include 6 for better percentage results ?...and should Banker total be only 2 card total or is 3 card acceptable ? or does 3 card Banker not make it asymmetrical ?

    2) Does "the very first four cards dealt" refer to the first four cards of the shoe ?

    3) With regard to "any standing/natural situation" favoring player... a natural on either side, favors player ? and if a natural occurs on each side (same hand) that would favor Player also ?

    4) Also one last question not related to this post, but may have been addressed elsewhere on the forum, how do you handle a Player 2 card total / Banker 3 card total ??

    As always, thank you...

    Offline AsymBacGuy

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    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #177 on: July 12, 2020, 10:03:50 pm »
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  • Hi Rickk!

    1) Most Banker asymmetrical strenght comes from standing 4s and 5s (and at a way lesser degree from standing 3s). In those instances when Banker must draw after knowing the third card dealt to Player, the hand becomes symmetrical.
    Banker initial 6s are, along with pure sym situations, the points you really do not want to get when betting Banker as the hand becomes asymmetrical only when a third card 6 or 7 is dealt to the Player. And in this instance the B disadvantage is just lowered.
    If itlr you'll know for sure that one side will get a 6 initial point (symmetrical probability) but you don't know which side gets this point, would you prefer to wager P or B?

    2) Nope.
    First four cards I'm referring to are extracted from every new hand situation.
    Say we want to build up two simple random walks according to the actual shoe distribution in terms of initial four card points.
    Itlr the side kissed by a higher 4-card initial point will be favored to win.
    Of course there's no debate that a 6 or 7 (or natural) P initial point will get the best of it itlr. As the same equally probable counterpart is not going to get the same edge for obvious reasons.

    The problem arises when Player is forced to draw (0-5 points) and Banker shows a 3,4 or 5 initial point that makes the above assumption worthless.
    But we know the general probability that such thing will happen.

    There are times when Player crosses situations where the higher initial point will belong to asymmetrical propositions and others when the asym B force is denied at the start.

    Moreover a kind of third random walk could be put in action anytime higher initial points will win or lose depending upon the actual nature of third (or fourth) card.
    This being the natural reflex (at various degrees) of the actual card distribution that must deny a perfect balanced distribution.

    3) By any means any standing/natural situation (being equally probable) will favor Player side wagering.
    For that matter, try to observe how happy are casinos' acute floormen working at HS tables when clueless players are jumping in joy after winning a Banker bet by a natural. Those players do not know that they are losing a huge amount of money itlr. 

    4) Overall any 2 card Player point vs 3-card Banker point is hugely favorite to win itlr.

    as.
    Next to edge sorting it's me

    Offline AsymBacGuy

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    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #178 on: July 14, 2020, 10:39:57 pm »
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  • Let's summarize which points we really want to get while wagering B or P side.
    Remember that four card initial points on both sides are perfect equally likely.

    A) When wagering Player side, of course we want to get a standing/natural point.
    It doesn't matter if our P 6 point will lose to a higher point (B7 or B natural or any higher 3-card B drawing situation).
    Itlr any P standing situation will make this bet EV+.

    On the other end, the same standing/natural points not belonging to any asym situation falling on B side will make any B bet EV-.

    Thus, regardless of the actual result, those symmetrical and specular situations will be hugely favourable when betting one side and of great detrimental when wagering the other one.

    B) We bet Player and Player must draw.
    Quite bad news as now we have to escape the probability that Banker gets a 3, 4 or 5 initial point.
    In the remaining cases, Player can't be disadvantaged, actually it's slightly advantaged in the P5-B4 situation.
    Of course in the 0-1-2 specular B/P drawing points, highest point will be favored to win itlr, but in the same long run such probability will be equally distributed.

    C) We bet Banker and Player must draw.

    Unless our B point is 5, 4 or 3 we're losing money itlr.
    It's quite funny to watch at those players jumping in joy whenever their Banker bets are won by a natural or standing point.
    Actually they are losing a lot of money.

    D) Both sides must draw (no third card rule can affect the outcomes).

    A perfect symmetrical scenario where the winning side is payed 0.95:1 and the other one 1:1.
     
    Long term baccarat results are just the cumulative sum of mathematical propositions.
    There are no ways to humanly guess a fkng nothing unless we take care of the above math situations.

    Hence when wagering Player or Banker side we ought to estimate the actual probability to get: 

    - a standing/natural point on P side when wagering Player;

    - the exact situation to cross a Player drawing hand facing a Banker 5, 4 or 3 point when betting Banker.

    Since the former scenario is affected by huge volatility and of course not involving a math edge, mostly we should focus our attention about the latter scenario, being profitable by ranges and not by precise situations.

    It's a sure fact that people making a living by playing baccarat are those capable to catch the situations when their P bets are crossing more standing/natural points on Player side than expected and/or when their B bets are getting a higher ratio of P drawing/B 3,4 or 5 points than  expected.

    The rest  belongs to the Imagination song:  "Just an illusion"

    as. 
    Next to edge sorting it's me

    Offline AsymBacGuy

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    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #179 on: July 20, 2020, 11:36:07 pm »
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  • At baccarat we should play probabilities and there are general probabilities and actual probabilities.

    No doubt at bac key cards are 9s, 8s and 7s.
    Itlr and per every shoe dealt the side getting most of those key cards at positions #1-#3 and/or #2-#4 will get a sure advantage.
    Actually 9s, 8s and 7s falling at P side will get a higher EV impact than the same cards falling at B side.

    Those cards are not the cards you want to see when instructing the dealer to show "just one card" on the opposite side.

    There are many other ways to form 9, 8 or 7 initial points but itlr the 9-zero value card, 8-zero value card and 7-zero value card are overwhelming the rest.

    It could happen that the side getting most part of 7s, 8s and 9s will lose to the counterpart. Besides the less likely situations where those cards forming an exact 7, 8 or 9 point will lose to higher points, those cards could combine themselves with very low cards producing "worthless" points. Think about 7-3, 8-2, 9-A, 9-2, etc..
    Such probability is symmetrical.

    Of course per each shoe dealt those cards cannot be equally distributed on both sides. The fact that those key cards could combine with low cards getting very low points shouldn't affect the main concept that the higher the card falling on a given side, the better the probability to win.
    Altogether naturally is to generally think that key cards cannot fall endlessly on one side.

    It's like considering those key cards as a kind of "wild cards": they may hugely, moderately, slightly or not at all help "our" hand.

    In some way, outcomes are the direct reflex of those endless (but finite as considered per every shoe dealt) propositions.
    Most of the times such key cards will enhance the production of short symmetrical outcomes, it's only when the actual key card distribution tend to strongly privilege one side that B or P will take a substantial advantage over the other one.
    And of course there's the rare asymmetrical impact working (or not) for B favored hands.

    I mean that itlr third or fourth card happenings will affect outcomes way lesser than what initial points will do, as the initial point gap situation involves an increased 7% advantage over asymmetrical hands.

    as.
     
    Next to edge sorting it's me