08 Why bac could be beatable itlr


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Offline AsymBacGuy

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Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Reply #180 on: July 26, 2020, 11:19:38 pm »
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  • Say we want to transform the game into mere symmetrical successions where asymmetrical hands do not form B results, thus considering them as a bonus when betting Banker and a kind of losing zero at roulette when betting Player.

    Naturally the asym hand apparition remains a bonus (+15.86%) on B bets and a same negative happening on P wagers.
    Thus it's not a sure win or loss on either sides.
    Surely our long term results will be affected by the number of times we crossed an asym hand when betting B, and at the same time by the number of times we met an asym situation when betting P.

    Itlr and in absence of a valuable bet selection the AS/S ratio will approach more and more to the expected 8.6/91.4 ratio. Therefore we are losing.
    And the EV gap between a long term betting made on B instead of P is 0.18%.

    Therefore there are only two options to win or to lower/cancel the HE:

    a- getting an higher asym/sym hands ratio than expected capable to invert the HE when wagering Banker;

    b- wagering Player only on symmetrical situations.

    Then what might help us to define the terms of the problem?

    Average asym hand distribution, for example.

    Players are too focused about the actual outcome, maybe in the effort to follow an unguessable succession.
    When betting Banker we must hope that no matter how are consecutively placed our bets an asym hand must come out within a shorter gap than expected.
    Otherwise we're losing money, a lot of money I mean, even if the actual pattern is a symmetrical  BBBBBBBBPBBBB succession (for that matter even a single asym hand happening on this sequence is a long term money loser when regularly betting banker)

    Gaps between more frequent symmetrical hands and rare asymmetrical spots.

    Asym-asym hand apparition hugely favors the B side and actually some shoes will present many asym hands distributed in couples (or more).
    In reality. more often than not asym hands come out in single apparitions (for obvious reasons) or clustered at some portion of the shoe.
    We ought to remember that natural/standing points on Player side totally deny the asym hand happening and some Player drawing points crossing an asym hand are actually favorite to win (think about a P5-B4 drawing situation).

    On the other end, it's sure as hell that at least a couple of asym hands will come out per every shoe played. Meaning that sooner or later a constant Player betting virtually getting an EV not lower than zero, will cross those unfavourable spots where our P bet is worthless.

    Symmetrical spots

    Sym spots hugely favor Player side for several reasons:

    - first, we're playing no worse than a fair game as bets will be payed 1:1;

    - secondly, as long as no asym hand will be formed, key cards will land equally on both sides;

    - third, the 7/6 symmetrical standing point situation is unequally payed regarding which side we bet.

    The idea is that baccarat should be considered not just in terms of patterns but in term of ranges (gaps) helping one side at various degrees or at worst not damaging the other one.
    Sometimes (just for practical purposes) the most likely pattern distribution tend to correspond to those ranges. 

    Knowing that most outcomes are in direct relationship of sym hands results, we should focus our attention about the actual probability and distribution to get higher initial four-card points as this is the main tool that shift the results.

    A thing that we'll discuss tomorrow.

    Next to edge sorting it's me

    Offline AsymBacGuy

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    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #181 on: July 27, 2020, 11:33:34 pm »
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  • It's intuitive to think that itlr chopping lines showing at most likely degrees (singles and doubles) are the direct reflex of a low imbalance of key cards.
    Therefore long streaks must come out whenever a strong imbalance of key cards come out.

    Nonetheless key cards are finitely placed as they are burnt from the play. Say they must be more or less concentrated along the deck.

    It's true that strong points could be made by "normal" cards as a combination of 3 and 6 or 4 and 4 could do, for example. And of course many results will be dictated by "weird" situations as a 4 getting a 4 vs a standing 6 etc.
    But those spots are just belonging to the short term deviations category.

    Say we want that our strategy is set up in order to only bet Player side, thus trying to get a kind of advantage.
    There are three steps to look for.

    1- we want a higher initial point

    2- we want a standing point

    3- we do not want to cross an asym hand.

    Anytime we get a higher initial point and regardless of the quality of the hand, we're hugely favorite to win.
    Naturally key cards distribution play a great role on that. In a sense we want the shoe to get a low imbalance of key cards on the portions of shoe we chose to wager.

    A standing point (6s, 7s and naturals) come out at P side with a 38% probability and of course any P standing point is favorite to win.
    Such 38% probability could be more or less concentrated along the various portions of the shoe.

    Finally, any P drawing situation (a close to 50/50 probability) is susceptible of crossing a 3,4,5 or 6 B point, therefore being strong unfavorite (at various degrees) to win unless the initial point is higher.

    Mathematically speaking it's like playing a coin flip game, a kind of 38/62 ratio and a reversed 62/38 ratio considered at different steps.

    Remember that at any 8-deck shoe symmetrical initial points will come out at those percentages:

    0 = 14.74%
    1 = 9.49%
    2 = 9.45%
    3 = 9.49%
    4 = 9.45%
    5 = 9.49%
    6 = 9.45%
    7 = 9.49%
    8 = 9.45%
    9 = 9.49%

    Next to edge sorting it's me

    Offline AsymBacGuy

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    Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
    « Reply #182 on: August 10, 2020, 09:36:09 pm »
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  • At baccarat we can't consider any single outcome as a valid outcome in our registration unless if following normal math percentages.

    For example, say the pattern is BBPP

    Here we must consider first whether BB is coming from mere sym propositions, meaning that B in both cases wasn't advantaged by the rules.

    Secondly we must assess whether PP didn't cross an unfavourable asym hand getting the best of it by starting underdog.

    Most of the time BBPP pattern is the product of sym propositions as the asym strenght will act by the old 8.6/91.4 ratio.
    Not everytime.

    On the same line and more practically speaking, after a single P we should know that betting Banker means to hope that Banker will cross an asym hand more likely than not. Otherwise we're losing money.

    The same after a single B apparition.

    That means that there's no value to detect sym situations unless our strategy will dictate to bet Player or, reversely taken, that while wagering Banker we hadn't estimate that an asym hand is coming around shortly.

    Again about key cards.

    Definitely 8s and 9s will favor the side where those cards fall on. The probability those cards will fall into the first four positions is perfectly equal.
    But whenever the third card is an 8 or a 9, Player side is unfavorite to get a valid point to win.
    It's like 8s and 9s are symmetrically placed unless the 5th position is involved. The impact itlr is much greater about fifth positions than sixth positions as some part of 6th cards are not allowed to show up for the rules.

    It could happen that Player gets some winning hands by the help of such key cards falling at 5th position (aka Player gets 0 and/or 1 initial point). But if we run infinite times this situation we'll lose.
    The reversed situation is less likely to happen as some B initial points won't elicit a draw.

    Therefore many seemingly equal patterns aren't equal by any means.

    There's no doubt that long term results are the direct reflex of math percentages and those math percentages are the direct reflex of initial points and third card points actual situations.

    Say most 7s and 8s have fallen on initial two card B side and we can't care less about actual outcomes.
    Do you really expect that on the following hands the remaining 7s and 8s are more likely to fall on P side?

    Same about third cards.
    Third cards, while whimsically placed as they could intervene in the hand or not, are following a more or less attitude to help or not P side; in some way they constitute a supplemental random walk no matter which will be the real result.

    Actually best playable shoes are those which seem to conform at most to normal math propositions and according to bac features already known here; those which aren't must be abandoned at the first opportunity.

    Next to edge sorting it's me