I have to thank you all as this thread got 100k views, it's a nice accomplishment I'm very proud of!

Special thanks to Alrelax, the owner of this site. Then thanks to Kungfubac, klw and many others.

On one occasion I've heard a bac manager of one high end casino saying "not every baccarat player is a loser".
Good news. We suspect he was right. 

Next week I'll present a class of additional derived roads to look for.

Take care.

as.

Cogratuations AsymBacGuy . It truly is 1 of the best threads ever. Full of information and very helpful. I am using your information as a base for my Bac. journey. A problem I am encountering is that I am trying to observe and note hand histories from live play. I can't seem to find a free play Bac. table and when I observe my online casino tables you get disconnected pretty quickly if you don't place a bet and I don't want the added pressure of placing bets while studying what's going on.

Any ideas how I get round this ?

Cheers.

I'm not sure where you live but try to see if a nearby casino has Virtual baccarat ( also virtual roulette and virtual blackjack ....dealt by a real dealer ( not an RNG )..... and you can place bets on  a computer terminal.......but you can sit out an entire shoe and not bet and no one will bother you........unfortunately only a few casinos have these virtual machines.

The Venetian in Vegas has them as well as Boston Encore casino in Massachusetts  and the Connecticut casinos.

Hi 8or9 -- Thanks for the reply.

I'm in the Uk , no casinos anywhere near where I live so online it has to be. Looks like I'll just have to bet to stay at a table. Cost of learning I suppose.

Cheers.

Quote from: klw on January 26, 2022, 08:00:17 PM
Cogratuations AsymBacGuy . It truly is 1 of the best threads ever. Full of information and very helpful. I am using your information as a base for my Bac. journey. A problem I am encountering is that I am trying to observe and note hand histories from live play. I can't seem to find a free play Bac. table and when I observe my online casino tables you get disconnected pretty quickly if you don't place a bet and I don't want the added pressure of placing bets while studying what's going on.

Any ideas how I get round this ?

Cheers.

Thanks klw!

Yep, it's quite difficult to play at online casinos and one of the reasons is just the disconnection issue.
For that matter I know some people experiencing many disconnections even though a lot of real bets were placed but a more fearsome issue to face is that some bets are 'returned' without any sensible reason (as they were placed on time and connection was good).
Finally, too many cards are burnt at the end of the shoe (for obvious reasons) erasing some profitable opportunities to bet.
However, a strong pro about online play is that you won't catch Covid by any means 

I'd suggest to manually shuffle and deal shoes for yourself, tracking the results by a free software that takes care of all roads.
A further (but quite costly) improvement is to purchase a Shuffle Master machine (identical to those working at live casinos) where you can get a new fresh shoe ready to use after the first one was dealt.
Now you can compare the same shoe results coming out alternatively.

as.

Thanks As -- Good advice.

Cheers.

At gambling (and at real world for that matter) it's very unlikely that authors and works of the past won't be of any help for actual scholars.
You know that on my pages I've stressed a lot about the cleverness of derived roads (DR) Macau inventors in the 70s: even though it's probable their main aim was different than ours, derived roads remain the best indicator that baccarat could be beatable.

Why casinos that are so smart in extracting money from their customers keep presenting derived roads on their displays?
I do not know, probably as math gurus had instructed them to think that more derived lines are showing up higher will be the confusing world players must face. Or in any case that DRs won't hurt the house.   

Notice that baccarat literature remains focused about B and P hands (mainly by fruitless card counting techniques) or side bets card counting but nobody has ever mentioned DR features.
Along with other features. Fortunately for us.

Of course to be worthwhile DR probabilities must follow a kind of 'biased' original BP sequence, so if we win at DR we'll win at Big Road too. And vice versa.

Technically this thing is possible only when disputing the real randomness of the sample (card distribution) by place selection and probability after effects tools.
Or that baccarat was beatable at the start but 'experts' hadn't find a decisive tool to look for as stubbornly oriented about math probabilities.

Building a fourth derived road

This is not the magic potion to look for, just an accelerating and additional tool to assess in order to get more likely patterns along any shoe dealt. A further proof that the random world won't be so random.

Say we call it 'asymbac' road as I strongly think to be the first to publicly present this idea.

In a nutshell, we are simultaneously registering all 3 DR (byb, sr and cr) in form of blue or red dots by this rule: whenever 2/3 or 3/3 DR will converge toward a specific color (blue or red) we will write a blue or red spot in one separated line accordingly to the actual red or blue outcome.

Since any hand is good to provide a shifted red or blue spot as 2/3 oriented no matter what, we can assess an additional 'predominant' red or blue line considered by 'codes' and each having a more likely  lenght.

Example.

Shoe went as

PPP
BB
P
BBBB
PP
BBB
PPPP
B
PP
BBB
PPPP
B
P
BB
PP
B
PP
BB
P
BB
PP
BBB
P
B
P
BBB
PPP
B

The actual 'asym DR' went as:

rrr
b
r
b
rr
b
rrr
bb
r
b
rr
b
rrr
bbbbbbbb
rrrr
b
rrrrr
bbbb
r
b
r
bb
r
b

Let's add byb and small road lines:

byb:

r
bbb
rr
b
r
b
r
bb
rr
bbbbb
r
bb
rr
bbb
r
bb
rr
bbb
rr
bbb
rrr
bbb
rr
b
r
b
rrr

and sr:

b
r
b
r
bbb
rr
b
r
b
r
bb
r
bb
r
b
r
b
r
bbbbbbbb
rr
bbb
rr
bb
r
bbbb
r
b
r
bb
r
b

If we were to assess the most likely card distribution this shoe presents, we see there are good opportunities to look for, sometimes so polarized a child would get the best of, others more intricated but in any way 'codes' are way more restricted than what a unbeatable random world dictates.

More on that tomorrow.

as. 

This new derived road will take care of the 'predominant' red or blue global propensity (2/3 or 3/3) happening at any shoe dealt.
If 2/3 or 3/3 of all three DRs dictate to get a red spot and the next hand will be a red spot we'll sign a red spot otherwise we write down a blue spot.

Of course this new line will get the same identical properties of any other registration, confirming that baccarat shoes are not so randomly produced as general probabilities dictate.

It's now that we should understand the important fact that some hands cannot belong to our registration by any means as they simply had surpassed our cutoff points of interest.

Since bac shoes are finite by definition, we know that the probability to get this or that will be proportionally related about how many times such cutoff points will be surpassed.

We can't control every outcome, let alone the majority of outcomes, we could just control the propensities of an average (then more likely) card distribution.

In other words, our strategy should rely upon a 'limited random walk'.

We can do that as any card distribution of the universe cannot deviate from more likely occurences for long, otherwise casinos would be thrown out of business by offering bac tables.

So 'easy detectable trends' will be less and less probable as long as shoes are dealt whereas the 'more likely world' must happen very soon than later.

Math expectation and statistical expectation

Mathematics cannot be disputed but the environment where math should be working should.

There's no one serious statistical evidence proving that live baccarat shoes are randomly produced, and we can't give a lesser fk whether itlr B will approach more and more the 50.68% winning probability.
For that matter ask the math geniuses what will be the more likely pattern coming up at both sides and such fkng 'experts' have to run simulated shoes to provide an answer.
As no math formula will help them.

In any instance simulated shoes are belonging to an 'ideal' world as cards are not physically shuffled with all the consequent random limitations.

We can guess that a profitable strategy relies upon the actual probability to get a more likely average card distribution than a deviated card distribution as we've tested that the former category will overcome the latter category itlr.
So in some way we must get the lesser impact of natural deviated situations over the more likely normal lines, a principle perfectly opposed as to what many bac players will try to take advantage from.

And the answer is by assessing clustered and isolated events.

as.

What you said:

"In other words, our strategy should rely upon a 'limited random walk'.

We can do that as any card distribution of the universe cannot deviate from more likely occurences for long"..............

Is exactly spot-on.  However the problem once a player wins using it, is his psychological end which falls subconsciously to greed (big time) and then the recklessness begins. 

I have written extensively about that. 

Being successful at baccarat involves numerous things to be conscious about and employ at the table.

Quote from: alrelax on February 01, 2022, 02:30:34 AM

However the problem once a player wins using it, is his psychological end which falls subconsciously to greed (big time) and then the recklessness begins. 

I have written extensively about that. 

Being successful at baccarat involves numerous things to be conscious about and employ at the table.

You are absolutely correct!!

Probably the quote Hoping for the best but expecting the worst best illustrates the concept.

Even playing by a math edge (or an advantage of some kind) we must 'hope' that things will go in our favor in a decent amount of time; in the meanwhile we must expect the worst.

Sometimes even casinos rely upon that adage.
Think how glad pitbosses stare at an occasional super high stakes player finding endless winning streaks with no guarantees he/she will return to play there.   

Sayed that, I'm pretty certain that baccarat is a scientifically beatable game, actually the best game to play at any casino.
It will be a time when casinos will use CSM at their bac tables, erasing any possible 'card distribution' study and finiteness of the shoe, neutralizing random defects and of course any side bets card counting.
Or maybe not as 99.9% of bac players (a real optimistic percentage) keep staying at the 'ignorant' side of the things, so continuing to fill casinos' pockets. 

Finally, but we should know that very well, itlr the probability to win mathematically at a math EV- game is zero.

But 1+1=2 only when 1 is a real 1; maybe in the real world 0.9+1.1=2 and it's now that things could change.

as

At baccarat the only thing we should look for is the 'Probability World', I mean the real situations bac tables are going to produce endlessly.

We won't give a lesser cottontail rabbitsh.it about math laws as those belong to an 'ideal' world where each hand is completely independent from the previous one and the source of results will be perfect randomly distributed.
Therefore do not insult your intelligence by thinking that baccarat cannot be beaten as math dictates so.

Anyway it can't be beaten as well without having measured your results by testing a very large LIVE shoes sample.

After having tested a lot of real live shoes and knowing what to look for, it's quite easy to find out that potential math probability has nothing to share with actual probability, especially whether we're considering series of limited events.

That means that itlr the probability to get an 'average card distribution' shoe will overcome any other scenario and whenever an average shoe will happen we're strongly favored to win.

as.

KLW    I was in the UK for a few years (in the Midlands) and most of the casinos are small or cater to high rollers...Grosvenor, Crockfords in London etc etc ...... so it can get very expensive if you attempt to test a new bac method in a casino.

Personally, I would never play online...too many problems.....and don't even think about playing online against an RNG....you might as well flush your money down the loo.

Probably as mentioned by ASYMBACGUY, is to buy an automatic shuffler and deal about 200 or 300 shoes and see if you can find any abnormalities which are worthwhile...  finding only one or two abnormalities a shoe will not be practical or worthwhile....... so don't quit your day job.

Even if you can find 15 or 20 abnormalities a shoe, there is no guarantee you can come out a winner in the short run, even if you have a large % probability edge  such as 10%........you will win in the long run with a 10% advantage, but in the short run, normal standard deviation can turn you into a loser over 2 or 3 shoes in a row.

Most blackjack teams in the 1970's  to  1990's using a big player only placed big bets when the deck showed a     
1.5 % advantage.........   and it was very common for their bank to lose 20 % to 40 % of its value...even playing with a 1.5 % edge.

And if you are married with a few kids and your wife sees you dealing cards on the kitchen table for 2 or 3 hours every day, you might soon be talking to a divorce lawyer.

8OR9  -- Many thanks for your comments.

I am using Ladbrokes here in the UK. They are a FTSE listed company on the London Stock Exchange. I doubt it's the best game around but should be trustworthy.

Cheers.

8OR9: good points.
BTW, "happy wife (or happy husband) = happy life" 

There's a big difference between baccarat testing and black jack testing:
At black jack we are just interested about high/low card concentration/dilution, being high cards favourable and low cards unfavourable, anytime anywhere and anyhow. So pc simulated shoes are really worthwhile to test.
In a word, one sided deviation (deck portions rich of high cards and aces) will be the only guideline to follow in order to get a math edge.

At baccarat the main factor polarizing the results will be the average key card distribution, but we do not know how much and how long a side will be kissed by such key card falling.
Moreover many 'whimsical' results produce 'prolonging' or 'stopping' patterns where math apparently can't do anything about that other that in the very long run.
That is there are so many actual variables to consider that we should just rely upon the king/queen tool of statistical evidence: the frequentist approach.

So, for example, never assume that after tossing a given dice a '6' will show up by a 1/6 'expected' probability unless you have collected data capable to confirm that (sd is the watchdog of randomness).
Now it's clear that pc simulated shoes are not performing the same qualities any physically shuffled shoe dealt will get as many different than 'high/low' variables come in order.

Consider a Shuffle Master Machine shuffling two different shoes alternatively.
The probability a fresh shuffled shoe will break ALL coupled (back-to-back) cards happened at the same dealt shoe is literally zero. And many times even three (or more) cards won't be broken in their old sequence.
You can argue that this thing doesn't make a side more likely than the other one, yet this is a strong proof that shoes are not so 'randomly' shuffled as people would think of.

There are additional examples to make not involving SM machines that for obvious reasons I do not want to expose here.

Anyway think that in the vast majority of the times, physically shuffled shoes can't simulate a pc card distribution as a kind of bias is acting along the way at some point.
So testing a strategy on pc bac shoes is a fruitless task.
After all we won't bet our money at pc simulated shoes.

as.

Here are a few random thoughts:

1. I heard it said this way  ......"Happy wife, live a long life........Unhappy wife, storm and strife"

2. KLW   I hope Ladbrokes is using a live dealer and not using an RNG........if it's an RNG, I wouldn't even think about playing there.

3. You would think that someone in the marketing department would come up with a better name for a casino other
than LadBROKEs !!!!