Thanks Al for your reply.
You gave me the input to expand my idea. 

First, we should ask to ourselves whether baccarat is a completely random independent succession, I mean random outcomes without any possible bias we could exploit in some manner.
If the answer is YES, we better change the game to play at.

In fact those thinking that progressive plans alone will make the best of it at a pure random succession (even if it would be a fair 1:1 proposition as a coin flip is) are just fooling themselves and giving false hopes.
The only possible exception to think that a random game would be beatable in some way is whenever long term data had shown that some selected events wagered have produced low sd values, so possibly attackable by a careful progressive multilayered scheme.
By statistical terms, it's like that instead of getting a classical normal distribution we have found a kind of Cauchy distribution.

So if the sample examined is quite large, it's 1 quadrillion percent certain that pure random successions cannot give the player any minuscule probability to get the best of it.
If anyone thinks otherwise he/she should be entitled to present his/her strategic plan to MIT. 
Notice that some progressive plans (but also flat betting strategies) could shape positive lines for 'long', but this is just a temporary 'random' coincidence as even at random events the improbable will happen.

Second, if baccarat outcomes are not so 'randomly' and 'independently' dealt (and this is the only fkng option we could rely upon in order to beat the game itlr), that is a kind of exploitable bias happens, we must choose what will be the best course of action to take.

a) Trying to adhere at most at what the 'biased' shoe is presenting, a wonderful theorical thing to look at.
After all the vast majority of bac players adopt this strategy (and filling the casinos pockets).
Unfortunately most bac players haven't measured their EV, because it's just sufficient to check few hundreds of shoes to understand that under normal circumstances this strategy is a sure loser.
In reality and whenever a player likes to bet many bets per shoe (by the fear of missing something 'good'), just a 3-4 shoe mere sample confirms the low probability to be ahead.
Of course 'progressive plans' dilute the problem not solving it.
Nevertheless we can't rule out the (distant) possibility that 'experienced players' or keen scholars have found out that a low amount of bets made on supposedly favourable situations will get them the best of it.   


b) Every bac shoe dealt is affected by a kind of bias cumulatively merging into univocal 'mechanically devised' patterns giving distribution curves progressively shifted to one direction that has nothing to share with the B>P propensity.
Those are 'limited random walks' that without any doubt and giving the lesser sh.it about B>P asymmetry will get more probable lines than what a 50.68/49.32 strict model will dictate.

In reality such 'more probable' lines (so giving an edge by a mere flat betting scheme, the only one to guarantee a long term advantage) will be whimsically distributed as we cannot know the actual 'bias' level acting at our shoe.
Anyway a possible bias must act well more likely at consecutive (0-gap) or 1-gap or 2-gap situations; anytime those cutoff values are surpassed, we are simply not interested to chase it.

c) a mix of the above two approaches.

If it's proven to be worthless a kind of 'adhering strategy', it'll be more dangerous to set up a strategy oriented to stop given lines happening at the actual shoe, even if they are strongly disappointing your long term data.
Imo the better approach stays in the middle.

For example and simplyfing the issue a lot, only an id.io.t could hope to get a P 3+ streak after a shoe presented only P singles and doubles, after a quite amount of shoes all presenting only P singles and doubles happen quite often.
At the same token, it's a kind of bighorn.sh.it strategy to hope that B side will get some B streaks after many B singles happened.

oOoOo

There's no way to beat this game by betting many bets per shoe, anyway I've collected different strategies of serious HS players wagering a lot of hands, so next week I'll try to condense such different ways of thought into an univocal line by considering a hand-by-hand process made at real live HS shoes.

as.

Notes to the above from actual experience over years of B & M play.

P streaks and 'stronger' P than B is by far appearing with greater consistency then the B streaks and B 'stronger' in excess of a shoe here and there, or should we say 'consistently' while playing day in and day out, etc.

Reference "beat the game by betting many bets per shoe".  What so so many just never learn or realize, it is much better to bet larger, harder and more serious while limiting the sections we engage in BY FAR!  But not always easy to do.  Seriously.

The bias level will come and go, shoe by shoe, trip by trip.  P >bias, P <bias, B >bias and B <bias.  TRUE, but the 'trick' is to get the spot the other side attempts the instant comeback without being biased by YOUR OWN THOUGHTS, IDEAS, AGENDAS and EXPERIENCES, ETC.   Again no so easy to do.  Think about it.

'Random' Coincidence (define).   IMO it is:  'improbable' will happen—does all the time and often to the 'I can't believes' and the 'oh wow look at that, wows'.  Couple the 'exploitable' bias in along with the 'improbable'.  "We must choose what will be the best course of action to take".  Absolutely hands down!  Merge and side with instead of fighting against, what so so many players cannot seem to accomplish. 

You can't always adhere to your own terms and understanding of what the shoe is presenting (blaming in on the cards, the table, the dealer, the pit people, other players, the particular casino, etc.). And that in itself is super valuable if you can use it simply to your insight properly.  Not improperly as almost all do by blaming a non related cause such as I gave examples of in the parenthesis above. 

Alrelax in reply 556 above:
"...Reference "beat the game by betting many bets per shoe".  What so so many just never learn or realize, it is much better to bet larger, harder and more serious while limiting the sections we engage in BY FAR!  But not always easy to do.  Seriously.

The bias level will come and go, shoe by shoe, trip by trip.  P >bias, P <bias, B >bias and B <bias.  TRUE, but the 'trick' is to get the spot the other side attempts the instant comeback without being biased by YOUR OWN THOUGHTS, IDEAS, AGENDAS and EXPERIENCES, ETC.   Again no so easy to do.  Think about it. ..."


Perfectly worded/I agree 100%. 

All the best,kfb

Al wrote The limitations are within each person playing.

This statement is very interesting to be commented, we'll see it in a couple of days.

as.

Quote from: AsymBacGuy on April 11, 2022, 12:06:24 AM
Al wrote The limitations are within each person playing.

This statement is very interesting to be commented, we'll see it in a couple of days.

as.

I saw it last night, I will attempt to put it into words.  Possibly it can help a few.  Will post later tonight.

Not all A/B patterns are equal

We know that without an edge of some kind we are not going anywhere; an infinite bankroll could dilute or getting no effect on the risk of ruin, anyway we're not going to win.
But since we play to win (thus we have verified a possible edge working for us) we should assess how much we want to risk, that is how long our strategy could endure the inevitable losing situations happening along the way, at the same maximizing at most our probability of winning.

Value of the positive edge assessed, there are some formulas dictating the best fractions of our bankroll to be bet, yet baccarat is a very volatile game mainly as, imo, many shoes are not properly shuffled.

We have learnt that on average baccarat is a 'biased' world performing various and heterogeneous levels of 'confidence'.

We have taken for grant that if A=B, A1>B1 and A2>B2 (and so on but the probability that A3, A4... isn't practically exploitable), meaning that superior than A levels of probability follow values not belonging to a normal distribution curve, simply put that itlr some patterns are slight more likely than others. (A thing not belonging to the mere Banker math propensity of course).

So an A or B betting model is unbeatable by definition, only A1 and A2 models could be beaten as itlr both are getting more wins than the B1 and B2 respective counterparts.

Now a question should arise: is it better to bet toward A1 vs B1 or A2 vs B2 (or both)? What about our betting amount?

It's obvious that per every shoe dealt a bias cannot constantly act at both more probable lines, one line will be more favoured to get clustered wins than the counterpart. Not mentioning that A2 line (albeit being more 'precise') needs more room to come out.
And in fact and even knowing that both lines will get a EV+ play itlr, long term data show that whenever one line will get a fair amount of winning spots, the other favourable line will present more losses than wins or at best an equal W/L ratio. (And vice versa).
The old as the hills 'clustering effect' working.

Say one shoe is:

A1, A1, A1, A3, A1, A1.

By applying the well known 1:3 ratio, wagering the A1 line will get +2 units (before vig) and wagering the A2 line will get 3 units loss.
I mean that A2 line bettors will need three subsequent wins (A2, A2, A2) to balance the previous deficit.
By betting both A1 and A2 lines we'll get a cumulative  -1 unit loss.

Now a shoe went as:

A2, A1, A2, A1, A1.

Now A1 line bettors got a -3 unit loss but A2 bettors got a +2 profit (minus vig).
Overall both lines produced a -1 unit loss (plus vig).

Of course there will be 'unlikely' shoes like this:

A1, A3, A3, A1.

A1 betting line got -4 unit loss and A2 betting line a -6 unit loss. A 'disaster' cumulative -10 unit loss.

So it's just about the general probability to face such shoes, notice that by considering a 'clustering effect' the last horrible shoe got one loss at A1 betting line and zero losses at A2 line. That is a cumulative -3 unit loss (way better than a -10 unit loss).

You can argue about those other events not belonging to A1, A2 and A3 scenarios.
Good news is that all those events are winning situations, so different than A but not sufficient to belong to A1 category. (say we name them as A-x).

Since it's very very unlikely to face a shoe producing more than two A3 situations, we know that most bac results belong to the A-x, A1 and A2 situations with some rare A3 spots happening along the way. And obviously not proportionally distributed by the A-x + A1 + A2 = A3 equation.

Actually when testing your shoes you'll be somewhat bored to look for the A3-A3 distribution that you begin to think as them as 'very unlikely scenarios'.

After all at baccarat there no other ways to look other than for more probable lines to be clustered or happening after a single opposite less likely situation happened.

as.

Clusters, clustered patterns and clustered 'destiny'

We can arrange an A/B model into infinite ways then clusters will happen, actually they MUST happen.
And in reality clusters are the reason why we lose, as a constant 'low level' of clustering effect will be easily beatable by progressively wagering toward non clustered results.

But at the same time clusters might be the way to look for in order to win itlr. Again, if clusters would be so constant in their appearance and consistency, baccarat (and some other games) wouldn't exist at all.

Now the problem is: is it better to set up a plan about non clustered or clustered events and what's the level we should start and stop the wagering to get the most profitability (or, at worst, the least negative impact)?

First, a wide definition of 'cluster' is everything that comes out by repeating the already happened same outcome, so we do not need 5, 8 or 15 repetitive events to classify a 'cluster', thus just one back-to-back appearance of the same result or class of results belong to this definition.
Good news is that every shoe dealt in the universe will present several one-level clusters, some 2-level clusters and other relatively less likely superior situations.
For one moment say we are not interested about what should be more likely to happen, just that actual results should take a kind of clustered line at various levels.

Second, some different betting lines could collide into getting opposite clustered (CL) or non clustered (NCL) events, so a searched result could be a winning or a losing one depending upon which line we've decided to take.
Yet, if a given CL line is surely going to happen (always in relationship of its general probability to show up), we can guess that a CL-CL apparition will be slight more likely than a CL-NCL line.
Of course even a NCL line could get its share of clustering effect, again splitted into more likely levels.

Third, virtually there are infinite ways to consider events by CL or NCL situations.
Think about single/double vs 3+ streak successions, unb plan #1 or #2, bac codes and many others strategic plans not presented here.

Not talking about the common three derived roads where a CL effect tends to overcome a NCL factor.

What imo is important to understand is that people making a living at this game will try to get the least level of profitable clustering effect happening along every shoe dealt, that is 1.
Of course after having assessed that such CL effect went 'silent' (so bypassing that 1 cutoff level) for some intervals.

It's like that no matter the bet selection, a 0 level of CL factor (no clustered patterns) cannot act for long independently of how's 'more likely' some patterns should be generally prevalent over the counterpart.

Think about this: a HS player will hope that CL events will happen for long by a 'sky's the limit' feature.
Nothing wrong about that, unfortunately this is just a short term hope.
Another HS player will hope that CL events will happen more frequently by whimsical levels but by a degree different than 0, in a word hoping that certain events will be clustered by a level greater than 0 and up to 1, so they need just one positive step to be right.

Math edge and the 'rule' is to expect both players to be broke, in reality the second player will constantly make a 'unnoticed' small dent at casinos' bankroll, mostly as he/she's willing to  bet a way lesser amount of wagered hands, then by knowing precisely what to look for.
Many times getting valuable hints by simply evaluating the first players betting destiny, being invariably oriented toward a losing line more often than not.
A thing we'll see in a couple of days.

as.

Clustered destiny

We've already seen that no matter the strategy utilized' long hopping WL lines will be slight less probable than long clustered W or L patterns.
It's true that considering B=W and P=L or vice versa, BP hopping patterns are quite likely to show up, but in some way this is not a pure WL hopping line but just a clustered scenario. (Of course B/P is not a symmetrical probability model).
After all whenever a BP chopping line surpass a cutoff value, all derived roads will present univocal red spot streaks.
Technically and ignoring the very initial part of the shoe, a BP chopping pattern equal or superior than 6 will get ALL derived roads to form red streaks.

Therefore the winning or losing process moves slight more likely around W and L clusters of different lenght.

We can 'extremes' such statement by considering that W or L clusters will more likely move around sub classes of Wcl-Wcl classes and Lcl-Lcl classes, each corresponding by a precise value (1, 2, 3 and so on).

The important thing to remember is that itlr WL patterns vs WW or LL patterns are slight less likely to show up in way or another.
I mean that the probability to get, say a 8 WL or LW straight situation, will be slight less likely than to get a straight 8 W or L event.
With all the consequences to get the other 252/256 remaining patterns not belonging to the constant WL or LW or WW or LL lines.

Simplifying, if after 8 wagered hands tha probability to get WWWWWWWW or LLLLLLLL patterns will be slight superior than to face a WLWLWLWL or LWLWLWLW, so the other inferior possible patterns will be somewhat affected by a kind of 'clustering' effect.

Since we are talking about WL events and not necessarily about strict mechanical betting strategies, we may enlarge the field of operations by setting up as 'targets' some other players' destiny.

I know that this could sound as a unscientific strategy, anyway it works wonderfully in practice.

Alrelax is so true about the importance of focusing about actual results and not about 'what should be more likely to happen'.
Furthermore, most bac players like not to 'adhere' about what's happening or hoping too much that a given pattern will stand for long (that is forming long clustered patterns), most of the times when such players are losing so desperately trying to break even shortly.

In some way I'm meaning that individual player's or players' destiny are more likely to follow the above statement (so presenting valuable spots to bet at), no matter how smart and prepared we are.
And of course our personal destiny won't make any exception to that.

Examples.

Probability that a given losing player will get prompt consecutive wins is very low, if such player experienced quite long losing clusters, winning clusters counterpart move more likely about low or moderate clustered patterns at best.
In fact most part of losing players try to break even by forcing W clustered situations to happen shortly.
I'd say that in general circumstances for those losing players the probability to get an immediate four winning pattern is 1:16 but it seems to be quite lower than that.
Notice the adverb 'immediately'.

More intriguing is the probability to encounter a 'targeted' player getting many WL situations that of course cannot last for long, so more likely taking a W or L line.
Naturally even if this relatively improbable WL course seems to act, we'll bet just one hand for any couple of hands are dealt.

Then there are the so called 'lucky players' capable to guess an astounding amount of hands, a class splitted into two categories:

a- players getting the best of those univocal patterns happening (streaky shoes, predominant one-sided shoes), so wagering a lot of hands;

b- players that seem to be right at 'selected' wagered spots. Those are the more interesting to follow, especially if they bet huge amount of money.

Maybe both are getting the best of a fluke, have we reasons to try to stop those flows?

as.

Hi all
AsymBacGuy I find your above essay (cluster destiny) interesting. I agree for the most part, however, Im not sure how applicable in real time(i.e., before the streak or non streak have started presenting). That is, to catch ALL of the shorter-length clusters such as WW or WWW wouldn't we need to wager almost every hand?

re your sentence: "...The important thing to remember is that itlr WL patterns vs WW or LL patterns are slight less likely to show up in way or another.   ..."
     Q1 Do you feel the same for patterns such as WLL as  pbb or bpp  are slight less likely to show  VS  a WWW or LLL as ppp or bbb ? What about a 4iar series in the same comparison?

ASymBacGuy: "Probability that a given losing player will get prompt consecutive wins is very low, if such player experienced quite long losing clusters, winning clusters counterpart move more likely about low or moderate clustered patterns at best...."

     Can you elaborate a little more on this as Im not clear? Thx

Continued Success,

Hi KFB! Thanks for your interest.

Q1/A1: My thought about baccarat is focused about the 'actual card distribution' and not about B/P patterns.
Well, B/P baccarat streaks are shorter than a random 50/50 proposition and the asymmetrical math force will slightly shift the results, but both features are too whimsically distributed to be exploited.
Therefore, imo, Ws and Ls must be assessed about the 'average' and 'actual' probability of those patterns that are more likely to show up.
Since a perfect 'balanced' patterns world happening at each section of the shoe is out of question, we should investigate when a given pattern will take the transitory 'lead' over the counterpart in either W or L way.
Naturally we can't know precisely how many unbalanced patterns will happen at every shoe dealt, let alone about their lenght.
Yet we may estimate the probability to show up at least one time or, better, the probability to produce an average amount of W situations.
Notice that we do not necessarily need a W>L ratio to be long term winners, just to evaluate when a W cluster is more likely to show up in a way or another. (See later). 

Q2/A2: since baccarat outcomes are more likely distributed along unsteady 'unbalanced' lines, it's quite improbable that after a long losing sequence a specular winning succession will come out.
Tricks to lower such feature by adopting a progressive plan almost always lead to an eventual disaster.

Best way to think that such loss will be balanced by a proportional winning amount is to let many shoes to come out, hoping that a plan will slowly get its due proportional share of wins.
If every HS bac player would adhere to this simple strategy, baccarat wouldn't exist as the idea for such players to stay in the 'losing' side for long cannot be accepted. So forcing the improbable to happen after the 'more likely' had happened.

as.

Thx AsymBacGuy,

"...Since a perfect 'balanced' patterns world happening at each section of the shoe is out of question, we should investigate when a given pattern will take the transitory 'lead' over the counterpart in either W or L way..."
     
Q:How do you prefer to do this task?


Thanks in advance,

Hi KFB!

Tomorrow I'll respond to you.

Cheers

as.

Let's start with the assumption that by betting every hand or a lot of hands the probability to win after 3 or 4 shoes dealt is minimal.
Of course also the probability to lose all the 3 or 4 shoes is minimal.

Since it's more likely to get a final losing shoe than a winning shoe (and this fact perpetuates infinitely), it should be wise to bet only those hands that seem to get a 'clustered' winning potential.
On the other end we know that even betting every hand or plenty of hands a winning shoe will very likely come out in the same 4-shoe interval.

The 'old' worthless trick to use a strong progression in order to reverse a losing shoe into a winning shoe is the casinos' heaven as it can't be done by any means, yesterday now and in the next few years the human species is entitled to remain in this planet.

Then:

-in 100% of cases, a high frequency betting leads to get more losing shoes than winning shoes;

- there's a very high probability that after a set of 4-shoes one shoe will be a winning one even by betting every hand.

First possible countermeasure.

- Betting fewer hands. That move alone can't reverse the L/W shoes ratio, but surely will lower the HE impact. At the same time helping acute players to realize that things move around 'clusters' of more detectable lenght (see later).

Second possible countermeasure

- probability to get just one winning shoe 'no matter what' are overwhelming the remaining possible set of 4-shoe 16 combinations.
So for example after two losing shoes the probability to get at least one winning shoe in the next two shoes is greater than 25% (naturally to be really valuable our B bets must get at least a 51.3% winning probability and P bets at least a 50.1% winning probability).
The same about experiencing three straight losing shoes, the final fourth shoe will get a better than 50% probability to be a winning shoe. (And the same B 51.3%/ P 50.1% winning ratio applies). 

Obviously after any winning shoe the probability to encounter another winning shoe in the 4-shoe format is reduced, actually this is the only situation where the s.tup.id 'quit when you're ahead' suggestion will be (partially) worth.

The transitory 'lead' should be assessed about how many times a given probability event failed or succeeded to reach its 'average' value (for example a 0.75/0.25  probability model should get a 3:1 winning pace to break even).
Surpassed certain values and according to the expected number of hands left, probability that the 'silent side' will get a substantial lead over the counterpart is very low.

as.

For once pretend your goal is to lose faster than you can.
Besides wildly wagering side bets getting a very distant probability to happen, which moves would you take to accomplish this task?

as.

Hi as-  If there was such a way to calculate how to lose then Bac games wouldn't exist as all you have to do is bet the opposite and win , right ?

Cheers.