Hi Al: yep, we can't know exactly when things happen, we're forced to move around probability ranges and IMO some ranges are more reliable than others.

Hi KFB!

Stadium bac live dealer games are quite good for this strategy but only tracking one table at a time. It's very easy to make mistakes and as already sayed this is the main problem of the algos action. (More inputs on that privately)

About the early detection of 'streaks': obviously an above than average profitable shoe must start  'positive' at the first steps rather than starting bad and suddendly producing a long positive streak. It's what we name as "positive recency" that tends to get a much more important impact than the "negative recency" counterpart on the betting frequency.

If a positive streak shows up we could think of it as a natural situation or a biased event, in any instance we have no reasons to stop the action, sometimes up to the end of the shoe (due to the relative rarity of the betting frequency).
Of course if we win itlr it means that most shoes are somewhat 'biased', in our case because they belong to the "average card distribution" category that most of the times produce expected result ranges.

Most shoes doesn't mean "all shoes" so we have to think what to do when the 'bias' seems not to be working.
Have to run, see you later

as. 

Into a true random environment where each result is fresh and completely independent from the previous one(s), the average card distribution concept cannot exist so the algorithms can't rely upon nothing as every outcome and every class of outcomes will belong to the same (unbeatable) world, so forming the old fkng Bell curve.

Thus the pivotal average card distribution (no matter how whimsical are the card combinations producing the actual results) should be entitled to make more asymmetrical events than symmetrical situations and of course we're just interested about one side of the asymmetrical operations (the positive side).

Consider an A/B succession produced by a random source where (p)A is 0.52 and (p)B is 0.48. (For example a roulette wheel having 52 black slots and 48 red slots).
Itlr and sure as hell we'll expect to get univocal situations privileging A streaks and B singles as every spin will more likely fall into the greater number of slots.

Say that even at baccarat we have found betting paces capable to get similar probabilities itlr, so we have reasons to dispute the perfect randomness of the source; in addition we may infer a kind of dependent back-to-back probability up to the point that the "natural" expected POSITIVE asymmetry could be erased or even inversed at a substantial portion of the shoes dealt.

Since any shoe is a new world (albeit being slight more likely to follow some pattern lines), distributions deviating too much from the "average" could be a perfect heaven or a terrible hell and we don't need deep thoughts to ascertain that.

In fact when the more probable average card distribution shows up, the positive expectancy is more likely to be clustered and clustered for long or to be isolated for very short terms, but when card distributions deviate too much from the average CD, we'll get a half probability to encounter deeper favourable events than average or, sigh, a half probability to get a sort of nightmare.

In some sense, we have 2 out of 3 occurences to rely upon:

1) Average card distribution (working at both algos)

2) Positive deviated card distribution (working at one alg, we do not know which)

3) Negative deviated card distribution (working at one alg, we do not know which)

Fortunately and differently than derived roads successions, per every shoe dealt both algorithms are able to spot more likely situations by taking care of a higher amount of volatility.

It's like that by riding both algos not a single shoe is unplayable and that's a decisive finding to not waste time by waiting an average card distribution or positive deviated CD to happen.
Anyway and without a software help, it's very very harsh to manually classify both algos at the same time, not mentioning the difficulty to know what to bet when one (or both) algos dictates so.

Next week an explanation about how different levels of asymmetry or temporarily symmetry will affect each algorithm.
Then I'll shut up.

as.

At a given binomial succession, one of the simpler ways to ascertain randomness is to register the number of "runs", that is how many times a given side will shift to the opposite one.
If the production source is constant and completely independent for each outcome, there are no valuable strategies to detect when the runs number may enlarge, decrease or stay at 'average' values. Any hand is a new hand, period.

Therefore after 100 hands, 25% of total outcomes will be singles (enlarging the runs number) and the remaining part belonging to various streaks (25% of doubles and 50% of superior streaks) that tend to decrease the runs number.
Do not confuse the number of total hands with the patterns shape (obviously itlr singles=streaks, doubles=superior streaks, etc)

But at baccarat we have reasons to think that the production  may be affected by a partial (volatile) unrandomness and anyway cards cannot be uniformly distributed, especially for the fact that some ranks will get a different weight over the final outcomes (key cards).
Now and for obvious reasons, the number of runs is a too simple tool to rely upon as being too sensitive of the volatile actual card distribution.
We'll never know precisely and even by considering single outcomes by "ranges" the key card falling and their impact over the final results.

Thus we could face the issue by a different angle, that is considering outcomes under the asymmetry or symmetry lens so considering diverse classes of results more probable to converge toward specific situations.

Our algorithms do not give a damn about actual strong (profitable or not) deviations and let alone about the B math advantage. They simply do their best to assess the various levels of natural asymmetry and the temporarily (less probable) symmetrical situations any shoe in the universe will be more likely to produce.
When both events tend to be silent (thus the asymmetry is not present or showing up by very low values and, more importantly, the less likely symmetry takes an improbable strong lead), our algos will lose.
Actually whenever the main algorithm seems to get unplayable spots for "long" or collecting more losses than wins, the back-up algorithm will get a slighter amount of favourable situations than not.

It's because we set up both algos not by a kind of opposite triggers applied to the same succession, just by a different constant rhythm that tries to get the best of the more likely card distribution.

as.

Hi Asym. I hope all is well.

In your post above #887:

"...At a given binomial succession, one of the simpler ways to ascertain randomness is to register the number of "runs", that is how many times a given side will shift to the opposite one...."

I like that statement. I also like to think of it as Distance-Between-Runs. I also like to view other outcomes as "Distance Between". For example, "Distance-Between-Sevens", et al #s. Even if this (Distance Between) concept doesn't always tell us exactly when an exact event is more probable it may still tell us if this shoe (thus far) is acting normally (random) or an outlier (significantly NOT random).

I find the outlier shoe more difficult to consistently prosper from because one MUST be in sync with the outcomes, or one digs a hole. A reason I'm also against wagering a static bet at a predetermined specific spot. If incorrect we can't climb out of the hole or must spend several shoes climbing out. I call these shoes erratic and will sometimes cease wagering or wait on next shoe if I'm not in sync early. 





Continued Success,

Hi KFB!

Excellent points. No jokes.

Again I stress about the importance of R. von Mises definition of randomness and Smoluchowski probability after effects concept, clearly and undoubtedly confirming that at baccarat most successions are unrandomly or partially unrandom distributed.

There's no way to beat a perfect random world for long, but there are several ways to exploit unrandomness itlr even though we do not know the precise direction the unrandomness will take at any shoe dealt.
Obviously and as you correctly sayed in your post, the unrandomness could lead to terrific spots or to terrible situations, so enticing the betting action or not by assessing, shoe per shoe, simple statistical standards.

Smooth operators

Algorithms act like the Sade 'Smooth operator' song words: "No place for beginners or sensitive hearts".
The final betting process is made after considering several parameters, so they'll do what they are instructed to do: That is suggesting the more probable spots, shoe per shoe, giving a lesser damn about the actual conditions or long term probabilities that sometimes could lead to bet the opposite side.

Algos do not guess anything: They just know that when betting Banker they need at least a 51.3% to succeed, or when betting Player they need at least a 50.1% winning probability.
That's where the edge comes from.
Whenever such cutoff values are surpassed too much, they simply stop or moderate their action as they "know" that a kind of too deviated situation is happening.
When a strong deviation happens, half of the times will go to our favor but the other half will be harmful and obviously both parts are asymmetrically ROI (return on investment) shaped for the natural EV- feature.

It's the rhythm of presentation that counts and fortunately one of the two algorithms is entitled to catch a "more expected" course of action by a degree of precision touching the 100% value.
So in some sense it's very very unlikely both algos will get the same long positive streaks for long.

as.

Very soon a brief discussion about how much the baccarat 'source' (SM machines, manual shuffling, etc) has a sensibile impact over the outcomes.

as. 

 

Basically casinos offer three kind of shoe shuffling:

a- manually

b- shuffling machines (the most utilized is the Shuffle Master and its variations)

c- preordered shuffle (HS rooms for example)

We have a strong belief that the 'cut' doesn't significantly change the "natural" flow of the outcomes for the already mentioned "alignment" factor. At least for our algos prediction.

Long term studies made on large samples of distinct categories enticed us to think that one algorithm performs significantly better at machines shuffled shoes, meaning that to get a substantial edge over the house just one algorithm random walk will get the best of it, so capable to nimbly overcome the natural negative deviations.

On the other end, manually shuffled and (at a lesser level) preordered shuffled shoes sometimes might pose a serious threat on the main algorithm action so luring the back-up alg to work. Hence complicating things a bit.

Don't worry: casinos do not give a lesser damn about this, they know that more shoes are offering in very restricted times, greater will be their probability to get profits.
And shuffling machines will perfectly fit this task.
Since players' aim isn't certified by math we're sure machines are making unbeatable our main algorithm and I'm not joking about this.

Generally speaking, manually shuffled shoes considered under our main algorithm lens could be a heaven or a hell as more likely affected by a moderate or strong unrandomness tending to provide longer positive or negative streaks than expected.
Good news is that the backup algorithm is able to catch a slight greater amount of positive than negative situations (at the cost that the main alg had to previously lose some spots before we consider to utilize the B plan).

Preordered shuffles where most money is wagered upon are a bit more intricated to be assessed as we do not know the visual source of shuffling.
Anyway we have reasons to think that casinos' goal is to offer shoes as perfectly random distributed as they can, well knowing that math edge + randomness = 100% unbeatability.

Actually a strong 'seemingly' randomness is what the main algorithm looks for: in fact an optimal randomness is unbeatable only when a perfect independent production source is acting per every hand dealt, thus giving a fkng damn about the average key cards impact and/or the natural math asymmetrical features happening along the way. Moreover giving a lesser damn about the "density" of the asymmetrical and symmetrical outcomes.
But all those parameters are considered irrelevant (besides the obvious B long term propensity) by our math and gambling expert fkng losers.
But not by our long term winning algorithms.

Naturally and to state that, we know how machines shuffle the cards and obviously we know by a fair degree of precision that preordered shoes are coming out from machine shufflers.

So as long as a machine is involved to provide outcomes, long term probability to make our main algorithm to lose will be very close to 0.

When manually shuffled shoes seem to get unprofitable the main algorithm random walk's action, it's time to utilize the backup algorithm. Or, naturally, to consider as unplayable that shoe.

Problem is that without using an illegal software, riding two different algos will easily lead to a lot of mistakes as the different algos' rhythms need plenty of attention to be properly registered.
This is the only downside of such long term EV+ plan.

Algorithms do not guess or hope for anything, they just suggest to bet EV+ spots.

Of course we're just clowns, baccarat remains an unbeatable game.
In the meanwhile we collect the short term positive variance (LOL)

as.

Hi Asym--Good read above.

"...Basically casinos offer three kind of shoe shuffling:

a- manually

b- shuffling machines (the most utilized is the Shuffle Master and its variations)

c- preordered shuffle (HS rooms for example)..."

I once overheard a dealer respond to her pit boss when he asked was she ready to open the Bac game. She said yes but I accidentally did a BJ shuffle. His response was: "Fxxk it " just get the game started."

This was many years ago /I could not see the type of shuffler they were using(though I tried,lol). My question to Asym and others:

What shuffling options do casinos have with modern day shuffling machines for Bac. For example, do they have five buttons on the back (A,B,C,D,E,...etc) for whatever shuffle.

Do they have >= 3-4 different types of shuffles.?
I know they can order pre-shuffled cards with different types of shuffles.

I also know some casinos shuffles tend to generate certain profiles. *I have one cas that will most certainly have longer-than-expectation streaks of 2x2s. I noticed this about six years ago and have actually collected data to confirm my hypothesis.

I also know dealers that have indicated their instructions are to turn shuffler on for a predetermined number of minutes to supposedly insure an adequate shuffle. I've had dealers say they just turn the shuffler on, and it lets them know (green light comes on) when the shuffle is finished, . . .etc.

Any thoughts by anyone?


Thx in advance, kfb

Quote.................


Any thoughts by anyone?


Thx in advance, kfb

A very controversial subject. 

But.....all a machine can do is 'deep' shuffle, or 'light' shuffle.  No way to put in order card values, etc. 

And....if you see same cards and 1 or 2 lesser/greater
point value consecutive cards appearing in repetitive order, use that to your advantage.  Again, as I have done very well with, following the presentments and not wagering for something I desire.

And.....I strongly believe the cut, at least if it's greater than a half deck deep, as well as the burn, squashes any order the shoe could have been set up with.

I have done countless trials years ago with 8 decks, shuffling, putting in order and then hundreds of cuts and burns, no order of my 'pre-set' cards was able to be held.

Differently than black jack where casinos might (but they don't) virtually arrange the decks by not getting any kind of advantage for card counters (as a substantial portion of the cards is cut off from the play), at baccarat everything revolves around the number of 'runs' obvioulsy considered a too volatile value to set up a strategy upon.

Simplifying a lot, players who like to play 'streaky' shoes are hoping to get a relatively low number of runs whereas 'anti streak' players are doing the exact opposite.
Thinking that casinos are adapting their shuffles to the actual players category wagering at their tables is out of question, because itlr the number of runs assume a bell curve (unbeatable) distribution.
Casinos' aim is to get shoes more randomly distributed than they can, period.

The topic why a given shuffle tends to form more predictable patterns needs features overcoming the simple 'runs' factor, that is involving a symmetry/asymmetry parameter enticing the action of so called "limited random walks".

In our opinion there's a delicate balancement between asymmetrical and symmetrical limited random walks that are following diverse lines than expected by a "everytime it's a new independent hand" world and it seems our results are giving us a proof of such "weird" theory.

More on that later

as.

'Runs' are classified by the number of shifts of one side to the another one.
For example a BPBBPPBPPPPPPBB sequence forms 6 runs and the same concept applies to every A/B binomial model where we assign a given status either to A or B.

The average runs number of a given production is one of the simplest way to assess randomness without calculating it by other statistical parameters as by using the chi square test, for example.

The state of art of baccarat has taught us that BP hands are moving around unbeatable values as B and P results are corresponding to a kind of a constant undetectable EV- coin flip succession.
That is a random undetectable world.

That's a complete rattlesnakesh.i.t: if this statement should be true, any bac succession should confirm the perfect place selection independence, in the sense that no matter which spot we select to consider (or bet) outcomes will invariably follow a general (unb) probability line.

To get a better idea of what I'm talking about say we're deadly sure that the card distribution of every shoe dealt will be asymmetrically shaped.

Now the sure asymmetrical card distribution will entice either asym patterns or sym patterns.
And at both categories different densities of those opposite scenarios will reach more probable values.
When some cutoff values are touched, we're not interested to know whether things will change or not, we simply let results to flow without betting a dime. 

Algorithms just exploit the asym/sym various AVERAGE densities happening along any shoe dealt and as already sayed the main algorithm will get the lead over the backup algorithm because A algo will catch a slight more profitable situations than the B algo, as the former consider a slight more complex rhythm than the other one.
For example giving a lesser impact over the moderate homogeneous streaks but relatively suffering of other strong symmetrical but unlikely sequences favoring the B algo wins.

as.   

Hi Asym

Good thoughts in post #895.

I have a couple thoughts/ questions but will need to ponder your essay a little more.




Cheers,

Algos work because they try to estimate the relationship between the actual card distribution and the "average card distribution".

Players "guessing" doesn't work because it tends to get rid of the "average" privileging the "actual".

On the contrary, "triggers" players do not win either as they put too much emphasis about the "expected" instead of assigning a proper value on the "actual".

Of course algos are instructed to know very well how to deal with those rare unfortunate or lucky situations touching or surpassing a 4 or greater sigma probability.

Another important issue is that algos cannot care less about the actual bankroll status or about previous results: that's a pivotal aspect completely diverging to any method, system or approach invented to beat this game.

As already sayed, algos can only fear a "short term" unfavourable permutations issue that can easily overcome by the use of two simultaneous algos applied to the same sequence.
Or by calibrating the main one under stricter parameters when positive clusters tend to be silent for long.

We should remember that the aim of playing baccarat is to make money and not to have fun or collecting comps.
And algos will make their best efforts to exploit symmetry/asymmetry of the deck not visually determined, otherwise it would be a too simple task to accomplish.

More later.

as.

Hi AsymBacGuy

In your post a couple days ago:
"...Algos work because they try to estimate the relationship between the actual card distribution and the "average card distribution".

Players "guessing" doesn't work because it tends to get rid of the "average" privileging the "actual".

On the contrary, "triggers" players do not win either as they put too much emphasis about the "expected" instead of assigning a proper value on the "actual"...."

There was once a Bac App on youtube a group was selling that one could use to make a decision on P vs B. I also see players at Stadium Bac in Biloxi,Mississippi, USA  et al casinos utilizing an app on their phone. They would enter each and every card extracted. The casinos didn't seem to care as they walked by and didn't ask questions or say anything.


* I do not know if the app was analyzing patterns and then utilizing an algorithm to project a winner based on the previous patterns or simply assessing the cards removed (& remaining) and projecting a winner based on that alone(The edge would only be minimal on the latter and still may not neutralize 100% of house edge, IMO).


Any thoughts?

Win today with an app and lose the next ten fold days/sessions with the app. 

Same thing as the scoreboard.  Follow it this shoe and win and then the next 15 shoes total unpredictability or un-followability! 

Take all the notes you want at the table.  4 cards left, three face cards and one 9, before the red card comes out.  Please tell me which side will get the two face cards and which side will get the 9 and a face.  Please tell me.