"Q wouldn't this favor P as P would prefer NOT to draw a third card since then B may be allowed to exercise its option(i.e., to draw or not to draw). E.G. lets say there are more 8/9 cards remaining and we see BPB_ , wager P??".


I believe you will disagree with me, but I have found at live B&M games, that say a greater amount of 8/9s are remaining, it does not matter and there is no advantage to either side. 

Sure there could be for less than 50% of the times, but there is no order dictatorship appointed.  P could get an 8/9 and their second card could be an A-2-3-4-5-6 just as easily.  And B could get another 8/9 with a F-8-9 as well. 

I have noticed, with no records kept, when repeated 7-8-9s whether natural wins or not for the P, the B will have a greater chance to win the following hand.  And again, not a guarantee or a systematic trigger by any means. 

KFB wrote:

Q wouldn't this favor P as P would prefer NOT to draw a third card since then B may be allowed to exercise its option(i.e., to draw or not to draw). E.G. lets say there are more 8/9 cards remaining and we see BPB_ , wager P??.

Yep, when the deck is particularly full of 8s and 9s (true count, of course) the probability either side will get a natural is beyond the average 34.2%, but one side is payed 1:1 and the other one 0.95:1.
Whereas is virtually impossible to spot the asymmetrical hands favoring Banker (8.6% vs all other hands), we have means to valuably approximate a nearly 4 fold more likely probability of naturals, even though half of them will fall into the losing B side.

More generally speaking, the baccarat model is built around odd (1st and 3rd) and even (2nd and 4th) card slots that dynamically change their pace in relationship of how many cards were utilized at the previous hand.
First card and third card = P
Second card and fourth card = B

So when 5 cards are used to resolve a hand, next hand restarts (inverting) the process; on the contrary 4 and 6 cards used to resolve a hand will make constant the odd/even card fall with no pace changements.
That doesn't mean we'll be able to spot easily the final winning hand, just to work about more likely ranges, the same thing studied at other games.   

Then at baccarat also the odd or even FINAL point matters, always considered by ranges.
Differently to what many think about, odd and even final numbers do not get the same probability to win and this fact affects the average streaks lenght probability and the related isolated/clustering factor happening per any shoe dealt.

as.

"but one side is payed 1:1 and the other one 0.95:1."

Are all tables commissioned in Europe? 

Most all the tables I play on, even those with $10,000 and up max wagering, are non commission Banker side these days.

Quote"but one side is payed 1:1 and the other one 0.95:1."

Are all tables commissioned in Europe? 

Most all the tables I play on, even those with $10,000 and up max wagering, are non commission Banker side these days.

I do not know about European premises other than Montecarlo casino and yes, it's a 5% B commission there.

Yes, when one would think that a natural will come out, "no commission tables" spread among US are the best, EZ tables first (notoriously featuring the lowest HE).

The main problem of EZ tables is that a diluted hyper selective strategy cannot afford to get a "push" on F-7 Banker winning spots, thus enticing us to bet the F-7 side bet burdened by a bad 7.6% HE (even though such bet covering the main bet should be 1/40).

For what we know, no one HS Vegas room seems to offer EZ tables (for obvious reasons).

as.

Yes you are correct.  And correct about Vegas.  But there are plenty of other 25/50/100 min-$10k tables in US. 

There is also "Off The Street", (no front money) $25 min to $100k (yes $100,000.00) max outside the Chicago area.  And it is mostly EZ. 

But so many jurisdictions having commission free.  Love-Hate with the F7 wager, but I have done well with it. 

Streaks

Let's assume for simplicity that each shoe dealt will contain 80 resolved hands (ties ignored). On average we'll get:

a) 20 singles
b) 20 streaks

Of those 20 streaks, half will be doubles (10) and half will be 3/3+ streaks (10).
Again of those 3/3+ streaks half (5) will be 3s streaks and half (5) will be superior 3s streaks.
Then of that 5 streaks belonging to the 4/4+ category, half (2.5) will be precise 4s streaks and half (2.5) will be superior 4s streaks.
And so on.

So per every shoe dealt we'll expect two or three streaks equal or superior than 5.

This assumption relies upon a constant perfect symmetry working per each hand dealt, but we know that at baccarat such symmetry will be disregarded by "forces" belonging to different sources:

1- bac rules mathematically favoring B side (constant)

2- greater two-card initial points limited ranges (actual)

3- factors capable to stop (3a) or prolong (3b) an already univocal succession (actual streak ranges)

For sure the most decisive factors in the streaks formation happening per every shoe dealt is 2 and 3.

Obviously the most powerful force comes out when 1, 2 and 3b merge together, thus enticing us to bet B. Nonetheless this situation happens quite rarely.

Yet we know that point 2 remains the most important as the side getting the higher two initial cards will get a close to 2:1 probability to win the final hand.
In other words, in order to spot the side getting the greater 2CIP we THEORICALLY need to be right just a bit more than one time in two attempts.
Unfortunately things aren't so easy in practice, as huge 2CIPs could easily succumb to higher points (even for long) and of course such math propensity relies upon an average zero value cards distribution having an important (neutral) role about third card(s)' impact.

Then (thanks to Alrelax points) there's the 3 factor, that is the actual third(s) card impact that very often will erase and invert an already point 2 propensity. Or, to enforce it (but now we are not really interested about it as we've already chosen the 'right' spot).
 
Streaks lenght are just the by product of those three factors converging together.

Since the baccarat model is asymmetrical by any means, we should approximate at best how many times a H2CIP will stand at the same side, then what are the actual ranges of the 3 factor knowing that, generally speaking, 3a>3b up to some cutoff points and only finally by considering that B streaks will be anyway longer than P streaks.

Considerations about odd and even slots or final points are too complicated to be evaluated without an electronic (ILLEGAL) device, so we must rely upon those three factors.

Three factors: Ideal world and mistakes

1- If B>P by a manageable pattern exploitation, the game wouldn't exist, so negating a kind of ideal world. 
In reality it's a sure fact that at commission games casinos particularly like Banker bettors than Player bettors. Not mentioning those id.iots constantly wagering B at no commission Tiger/Lucky6 tables where the HE is 1.46% and not 1.06%.

2- H2CIP feature a lot of variance as a sort of 35% expected and average losing probability will come out more often than many would think, providing of course to guess right the side getting that H2CIP by percentages slightly higher than 2:1.
But now the ideal world exists, that is to get all spotted H2CIP winning.
Again the main mistake is to force an event not appearing so far to show up soon. A sre recipe for disaster. 

3- Most of the times third(s) card favors the already higher point, here the ideal points would be when the third(s) card always make a ZERO impact over the final outcome or to repeatedly help the same underdog side.
Whenever the card distribution seems to be so polarized to help consecutively the underdog side, we'd better forget the 2 factor.
Conversely, more emphasis must be given to the side not being sensibly affected for long by the third card impact.
   

as.

QuoteThere is also "Off The Street", (no front money) $25 min to $100k (yes $100,000.00) max outside the Chicago area.  And it is mostly EZ. 

Please elaborate it. Thanks!

as.

Stand corrected, it is not EZ, but it is 5 Treasures bac.  They do have other bac versions available, probably about 20 tables.

Anyways there are numerous properties outside of  Chicago. 

There is one with extremely high, no pressure, table max limits of $100k.  Depending on day, will determine the min wager but that is never more than $100 and usually a lot less.  Definitely less than Vegas HR rooms. 

Used to be in Vegas for 'Off The Street", no front money or large credit accounts of hundreds of thousands of dollars, the limits were either:

$50-100/$10,000
$200/$15,000
$300/$20,000
$300-500/$25,000

Those were at the larger places, Bellagio, Wynn, Caesar's, etc. 

"Off The Street", means you can walk up, no money deposited to determine special limits, no credit lines, etc.  Unlike Vegas which to the best of my knowledge, you would need at least 20-25 times deposited or credit line, to wager whatever it is you want over $25k or at other casinos over $10k max limits, etc.

FYI.  $50 min to $20,000 on main floor and many tables at The Palms are NO COMMISSION.

The table shown is $50 min.  $20k max (this is a live pic texted to me after my friend's win).  Note the 9 iar bankers.  My friend is there right now, he wagered $1,500 on first, full parlay on second, full parlay on third and then pulled down 6 times $6,000 wagers.  Lost the last one to the Natural 9 players win.  So he won $36k.  He caught 5 doubles out of 6 wagers, profiting another $25k.  Walked away with $55k losing $6k attempting three more wagers at $2k each.

I tried to enhance the sharpness as much as possible to show the limits.  $50 min, $20,000 max and $3,000 max on tie. 

This is Vegas and off strip has better action by far these days.  I will post these in my thread now and comment.

alrelax:
"...My friend is there right now, he wagered $1,500 on first, full parlay on second, full parlay on third and then pulled down 6 times $6,000 wagers.  Lost the last one to the Natural 9 players win.  So he won $36k...."

    I like your friends full parlays early in the W streak. Its my belief if one chooses to do a pospro one must press early /often. The compounding on say hits number 4th,5th,6th,..10th,....etc is a direct function of what was compounded between wager#1 and wager#2.

??What was your friends buyin for the $1500 base unit??

Asym above:

"...3- Most of the times third(s) card favors the already higher point, here the ideal points would be when the third(s) card always make a ZERO impact over the final outcome or to repeatedly help the same underdog side.
Whenever the card distribution seems to be so polarized to help consecutively the underdog side, we'd better forget the 2 factor.
Conversely, more emphasis must be given to the side not being sensibly affected for long by the third card impact...."


The part in bold is a good item to monitor.

Quotealrelax:
"...My friend is there right now, he wagered $1,500 on first, full parlay on second, full parlay on third and then pulled down 6 times $6,000 wagers.  Lost the last one to the Natural 9 players win.  So he won $36k...."

    I like your friends full parlays early in the W streak. Its my belief if one chooses to do a pospro one must press early /often. The compounding on say hits number 4th,5th,6th,..10th,....etc is a direct function of what was compounded between wager#1 and wager#2.

??What was your friends buyin for the $1500 base unit??

Full explanation in my thread here:

https://betselection.cc/index.php?topic=11747.msg72223;topicseen#msg72223

Thanks for the explanation Al!!

Yes, at Palms casino all tables are EZ baccarat tables (HE at B bets= 1.01%, the best). It's a nice premise to play baccarat giving players plenty of promotions. No many tourists playing baccarat there, the casino is crowded by locals.

About your friend..well good job...
Now after this fortunate session he has at his disposal 5.5 bankrolls to lose before breaking even.(Or, of course, to win more).
Nothing wrong to push winning sequences where the house can only hope to get that winning succession to stop once.
Then as we know very well it's all about to protect the money won by lowering the betting frequency and the betting amounts: "quitting the table as winner" move is not giving any long term advantage.

as.

Without the use of a software and by approximating at best the various patterns happening itlr, one of the infallible approach to get an edge is by wagering toward triples and 4s streaks by adopting a specific random walk.
Providing to use the old clustering/isolated effect taking care of a very unlikely symmetrical results distribution (results distribution and not card distribution).

In fact, 3 and 4 streaks must more likely come out as clustered or isolating a superior (5/5+) streak.
Therefore 5/5+ streaks situations once had surpassed the isolated cutoff point (so showing up clustered between 3 or 4 streaks) aren't chasable anymore.

Of course when putting into an infinite fight 3 and 4 streaks vs 5/5+ streaks, singles and doubles will become as ininfluent (neutral).

Here's a live sample where our random walk was following the above supposedly propensity.
3 and 4 streaks were played until a loss (5/5+ streak) or played just one time after a 5/5+ streak. The process restarts after a 3 or 4 streak happening.
Obviously a + sign is a +1 unit and any - sign is a -3 unit.
Notice the sd values.

- + + +

+ + + + + + + +

- + + + + + +

+ - + + -

+ + -

- +

+ + + + + +

+ + + + +

+ + + + +

+ + + + + + -

+ + + +

- + + + + + -

+ + - -

+ + + + + + +

+ + + - -

+ + +

+ + + - +

+ + + + -

+ + - -

+ + + - +

+ + + + + -

+ + + + + + +

- +

+ + + + + -

+ - + + +

+ - + + + +

+ + + + - -

- -

+ + -

+ + + + + + + -

+ + + + + + +

+ + + + + -

+ + + + + +

+ + + + + +

+ + + + + -

+ + + - + + +

- + + + -

- + + +

- + + + + + + (-1)

+ + - + - +

+ + - + -

+ - - + -

+ - + + + (-1)

+ + + +

- + -

-

+ + + + + +

+ - +

- -

+ + + -

- -

+ - (-1)

+ + - + +

+ + + -

- + + + + -

+ + + + + + + + -

+ + - + + +

+ + + + +

+ + +

+ + + -

+ + + + +

+ + + + - + +

+ + + + + + +

+ + - + + +

- + + + +

+ + + + + +

- + + +

+ + - +

+ + + + +

+ - - -

- + - -

+ + + - +

+ +

+ + + + -

+ + - + +

- + -

+ + +

- + + + -

+ - + + +

- + + + + +

- + + - - +

- + - + +

+ + - + + +

- + + -

+ + + + +

- + + + +

+ + - + + + (-1)

+ + + +

- - + + + + +

- + - -

+ + - + + + +

+ + + + + (-1)

+ + + - + + +

+ - + - -

+ - + +

+ -

+ - -

+ + +

+ + + -

- - (-1)

+ + -

+ + + (-1)

+ + + + +

+ + + + + -

+ + + -

+ + + + -

- +

+ + - -

+ + + + + +

- + + + + + +

+ + -

-

+ - + +

+ - + + -

- + + -

+ + + + + -

+ + + - -

+ + - +

+ + + - -

+ + + + - +

+ + + + + - + + +

+ - + +

- - + +

+ + + - + (-1)

- -

+ + + + - -

+ + - -

+ + +

+ - - + + -

+ + + + + +

- + + + +

- + - -

+ + + + +

- - +

- -

+ - +

+ + + - + +

+ + + - + +

- + - -

+ + + + - +

+ + - -

+ + - -

+ - + +

+ + + - -

- + - +  - + +

+ + + - (-1)

+ - -

+ + + + + + -

+ + + - + + +

+ + + - + + +

- + + + -

+ + + + +

+ + + (-1)

+ + + + +

- + + +

+ + + + + +

- + +

+ - + - +

+ - - +

+ + + + (-1)

+ + + + +

- + + + + +

- + - +

- + - + - + +

+ + + + + + -

+ - + - +

- + + -

+ + + + + + -

+ + + + + + -

+ - + + + + + (-1)

- + + +

- + +

+ + + - +

+ + + + +

+ + + + - + + + +

- + + - -

+ + - -

+ + - + + + (sh. 61.260)

Such +/- distributions speak for themselves.
You know very well I'm not selling anything here, just trying to say that this game could be beatable by exploiting its flaws, that is by negating the beloved "coin flip" nature stated by experts of our a$$.

Are we wrong? Good, casinos have plenty of money to challenge us. LOL

as.

"Are we wrong? Good, casinos have plenty of money to challenge us. LOL."

Casinos are there all the time, 24/7/365 never moving, waivering, being scared or shutting down because players are winning too much at baccarat. 

We beat ourselves.  What the highest majority of all players fail to realize is, that random will always be random and the game is 100% random, if you are attempting to figure it out with a mechanical wagering triggered plan, based on statistics of any kind.  It is just that one can jump on a definable and exploitable section or series of hands in the gamblers favor.

How the player builds up his win and how he holds it (if he does), is totally up to him, not the casino or the game.  Therefore, most all players beat themselves ITLR.  And I am talking about darn close to 99% of all players.