By Alrelax: "But, the player must know how to handle his wagering losing and winning hands during the course of the shoe and session.  And I have written plenty about that."

Yep, after all at baccarat each bet wagered will get either a tremendously wrong or an astoundingly good result. Sometimes a hand won't be resolved (tie) and it's not a coincidence this situation happens way more often whenever six cards are utilized to form a final hand.

Winning and losing hands are more probable to move around asymmetrical clusters, so basically it's the average lenght of such clusters that matters.

Patterns are just the by product of a more likely card distribution, that's why baccarat is not offered by dealing 1-deck or 2-deck shoes.
Casinos want a lot of cards to be arranged, technically that means to dilute or concentrate at most the key cards in order to prevent more probable patterns formation.

So one of the tools we could exploit, in our opinion, is to let many hands to go as sooner or later cards will align with a more likely distribution.
Not always this tool will help us to get an edge, most of the times it will.

More later

as. 

Suppose we have decided to follow three patterns distribution: A, B and C.

Since per each shoe dealt we have strong reasons to think that a perfect balancement of the three patterns will be the least probability to happen, first we must choose if we're either acting from a quantity point of view or from a quality point of view.

Quantity is in direct relationship of a given pattern appearance (presenting two or more times), quality is any different pattern coming out after a given pattern (so the previous pattern stops its appearance).

We've seen that whenever a pattern hadn't shown up so far we might consider it as virtually non existent, so luring us to bet for the other two possible patterns.

On the other end, more hands are dealt and greater will be the probability to fall into a "silent" pattern, so stopping the other two patterns flow.

Our data have shown that quality takes a primary role over quantity, otherwise the game would be easily be beaten by following what happened.

After all, there are only two ways to lose several units in a row:

1) Chasing for long a silent quality pattern (fatal error)

2) Keep betting for too long toward clustered patterns.

Anyway it's the "for long" and "too long" that will make a decisive role about our long term results.

The important tool to look for, regardless of the random walk(s) utilized, is to properly ascertain whenever a pattern should be more entitled to get a cluster of any kind, knowing that a minor part of the total shoes dealt will increase the different patterns appearance.

Technically we know that gambling revolves about streaks, baccarat is revolving about streaks even more.
That means to build some derived random walks then assessing the lenght of such streaks in order to get them clustered or not.

as.

As Asym said; "Yep, after all at baccarat each bet wagered will get either a tremendously wrong or an astoundingly good result. Sometimes a hand won't be resolved (tie) and it's not a coincidence this situation happens way more often whenever six cards are utilized to form a final hand."

Please see my play and notes from the other night.

https://betselection.cc/baccarat-forum/session-from-heaven/msg72591/?topicseen#msg72591

Thanks Al, I've read it. Good thread indeed.
Sometimes the boundary limiting a catastrophic session vs a profitable one is very thin.
Anyway it was one brilliant example of how things might work at baccarat.

Our estimated edge

Since we cannot use our algorithms in real play and not trusting (mainly for technical reasons) online games, we're forced to approximate at best an already approximating way of considering an average card distribution. Nonetheless at the end our average edge lines up at around 3.46% after vig.
It's a real big advantage but unfortunately performing huge fluctuations related to the actual shoe card distribution.
       
That's why we strongly suggest a flat betting procedure as we can't know when and how many those expected profitable shoes are coming out at the single sessions we're playing at.

So per every $10.000 wagered, on average we'll expect to win $346; that means that after one hundred $100 bets we'll win 3,46 units.

Yet and even though the advantage remains as constant, we ought not to forget that consecutive shoes not belonging to an "average card distribution" class may easily come out in a row; on the other end and even if more probable to happen, multiple profitable shoes could give us the idea we're unbeatable.

In our opinion, at baccarat there's nothing to guess or hope for, we should just rely upon objective long term findings with all the intricated related statistical issues.

After all if we know that per each bet placed we'll get an average 51.73% ROI, we should just wonder how sweet is to play baccarat instead of keeping a 9-5 job.

BTW, there are no possible countermeasures to be employed by casinos.

First, it's virtually impossible to shuffle 416 cards by a not average card distribution for long.

Second, the vast majority of bac players not giving a f about the average card distribution topic (or not knowing its existence) will get the most advantage by shoes not belonging to that category, meaning that more shoes are deviating to the "average card distribution" class and better will be their (short term) results.
A thing particularly hated by casinos while facing very HS players, so hoping that sooner or later things will get a undetectable rhythm. And that's the average card distribution we're talking about.

as. 

HI AsymBacGuy

"...Nonetheless at the end our average edge lines up at around 3.46% after vig.
It's a real big advantage but unfortunately performing huge fluctuations related to the actual shoe card distribution.  ..."

Excellante my friend.
I like this/always good to see when a gamer knows this %. It is my opinion ones' wagering approach should be built up/out from this known value. Though it is my opinion this is seldom a static figure one simply needs to know the Mean/ expected range. If one is an advantage player it is my opinion we can see this fluctuate from approx -1.36% ---  +7.35%.

More later,

Hi KFB, thanks!

KFB: I like this/always good to see when a gamer knows this %. It is my opinion ones' wagering approach should be built up/out from this known value. Though it is my opinion this is seldom a static figure one simply needs to know the Mean/ expected range. If one is an advantage player it is my opinion we can see this fluctuate from approx -1.36% ---  +7.35%.


Yep, edge comes out when shufflings are close or very close to the "average category" and that means that key cards are distributed by more probable ranges.

For example, if we knew how many cards will be utilized to form the next hand, we're getting a strong advantage as:

a) 4 cards utilized: A perfect symmetrical situation where one side (P) is payed 1:1 and the other one (B) 0.95:1.

b) 5 cards utilized: An asymmetrical situation where only P6 and P7 points (11.8% probability with Banker having to draw) make Banker unfavorite to win.

c) 6 cards utilized: A complex asym/sym situation splitted into two different categories:

c1- A pure symmetrical spot where both sides must draw no matter how's the third P card and

c2- A former asymmetrical spot where the third card dealt to the Player must elicit Banker to draw.

Obviously any higher two-card initial point is strongly favorite to win the final hand at both categories.
Moreover any hand formed by 6 cards is way more probable to end up as a tie.

Mathematically scenario a) accounts for a 37.8% probability, scenario b) accounts for a 30.5% probability and scenario c) accounts for a 31.6% probability. The total is 99.9% instead of 100% just for the decimals.

Naturally and without any doubt any Banker bet must rely upon a 5-card hand because it includes a larger part of profitable situations for that side.

On the other end, 4-card hands and most part of 6-card hands will make the Player as the best bet to make for a symmetrical world coming out at the start or becoming 'symmetrical' thereafter.

So it could be useful to approximate at best those 4, 5 or 6 card ranges, in the sense that whenever we'd think that the next hand will be formed by 4 cards the best bet, by far, is the Player bet.

If we'd think that the next hand will be formed by 5 cards, odds are that we'll be way more likely to win by wagering Banker side.

If we'd think that the next hand will be formed by 6 cards, well we better choose to stay put or, at the very least, to make a Player bet with a kind of minimal tie side bet whenever 6-cards consecutive hands are coming out.

Since any shoe dealt is somewhat affected by a kind of conditional probability, it could be worthwhile to estimate the total of the actual number of cards utilized in relationship of an "expected value" verified by long term data.

By doing that we'll better approximate how many 5-card hands can come out in a row and the more likely levels kissing the same side or how many 4-card hands deny a side to lose for long.

6-card hands? They are only good for gambling.

as.