Relationship between probable and improbable events at baccarat successions

Only unaware casinos could offer side bets for final winning points, no matter how's the HE (well...up to a point).

Fortunately we can do the same job by assembling the various BP hands distribution even though we know that half situations will go there and half will go here.
But by setting up a plan at BP hands we know to lose a lot of precision (so profitability) but facing a way lesser HE.

More later.

as.

Coin flip successions vs baccarat successions

Comparing coin flip tosses with bac successions is a pure mistake as the former model remains always independent but bac results are somewhat restricted by the average key cards distribution and, more importantly, by their sure asymmetrical distribution.

It's obvious that besides of the key cards average distribution, baccarat card combinations forming huge points (e.g. 6-3 or 5-4, 2-5, etc) move around the same concept, so what seems to be perfectly "randomly" distributed actually it doesn't. By any means.

An overalternating W/L CFS movement will happen just when consecutive B/P doubles will happen, anything different than that will get a + or - clustered line.
Such feature could be better exploited by running several random walks derived from the BP original succession.

How many consecutive BP or A/B (whatever considered) doubles are going to show up per each derived road considered?
Maybe setting up a cutoff stopping value for each alternating succession might be a good idea.

as.

Real shoes sample (very slight penetration), only Big road displayed:
0=no consecutive doubles, 1= two consecutive doubles, 2= three or more consecutive doubles. 

1- 0
2- 1
3- 1
4- 1
5- 2
6- 1-1-1
7- 1-1
8- 1-1-1-1
9- 1-2-1
10- 0
11- 1-1
12- 1
13- 1
14- 1-1
15- 1
16- 1
17- 0
18- 0
19- 1
20- 1-1-1
21- 1-1-1
22- 1-1-1
23- 0
24- 2
25- 0
26- 2-1-2
27- 1
28- 2-1
29- 1-1-1
30- 0
31- 1-1
32- 1-2
33- 1-1
34- 1
35- 1-1-1
36- 1-1
37- 1-1-1
38- 1
39- 0
40- 2
41- 0
42- 1-1
43- 1-1
44- 1
45- 1-2
46- 0
47- 0
48- 1
49- 1
50- 1
51- 0
52- 0
53- 1
54- 1-2
55- 1-1
56- 1
57- 2-1
58- 1-1-1
59- 0
60- 1
61- 1
62- 0
63- 2-1
64- 0
65- 2
66- 1-2
67- 2-2
68- 2
69- 0
70- 1
71- 2
72- 1-1-2
73- 1
74- 2
75- 0
76- 0
77- 1
78- 1-1
79- 1-2
80- 1
81- 0
82- 0
83- 0
84- 1
85- 1-2
86- 0
87- 2
88- 1
89- 1-1
90- 1
91- 1
92- 1-2
93- 1
94- 2
95- 1
96- 0
97- 0
98- 0
99- 1
100- 1-1
101- 1-1
102- 1
103- 1-1
104- 1-1
105- 2-1-1
106- 1
107- 1-1-1-1
108- 2
109- 0
110- 2-1
111- 1-1-2
112- 0
113- 1-2-2
114- 1-1-1
115- 1
116- 0
117- 0
118- 1
119- 2
120- 0
121- 0
122- 2-1
123- 1-2
124- 2-2-1
125- 0
126- 0
127- 0
128- 1-2-1
129- 1-1-1-1-2
130- 2-1-1
131- 0
132- 1-1
133- 1 (s #19240)

It seems that longer streaks of consecutive doubles are not showing up so often, despite of being the most pattern occurrence.

as.
 

As you said, "Comparing coin flip tosses with bac successions is a pure mistake as the former model remains always independent but bac results are somewhat restricted by the average key cards distribution and, more importantly, by their sure asymmetrical distribution."

To simplify and to highlight (at least IMO and experience) is a shoe of baccarat is finite.  Limited to about 80 (8 deck shoes) hands.  No matter what shoes prior to the instant game produced or didn't produce, each shoe is 100% finite and limited in what can or might happen/occur.

That is why all the stats and mathematical models in the world running hundreds of thousands or millions of hands, mean poop!  You/me are sitting down to play up to 80 hands and thus those 80 hands might do/can do anything and everything.  From nearly all chop-chop to lots of chop and doubles to strong clumping of P and B with 7-12 IAR or streaks of 15-19ish.  Then the next shoe is all 1-2 and 3s, etc. 

Point being, sitting down at a shoe, the shoe has no obligation to follow statistics or what was previously produced by earlier shoes.  Comparison is strictly superstitious believe by many as to what should happen.