As you said, "you should understand that there are many different shoe productions incorrectly considered as equal when they are not."

Exactly.  And what I have been highlighting with B&M scoreboards and individual shoe/Sections for years. 

I have capitalized very nicely as well as missing the opportunities being presented because I was desiring something and not realizing at the instant time, what being presented cannot be changed to what I desired, etc.

Al wrote:

I have capitalized very nicely as well as missing the opportunities being presented because I was desiring something and not realizing at the instant time, what being presented cannot be changed to what I desired, etc.

Yep, as humans we make plenty of good plays and a greater amount of mistakes, that's why almost nobody will lose the expected EV- but way more than that.


What are we really going to exploit?

Once seated we should have a clear vision of what we're going to do. 

Each bet remains EV-, no mechanical plans can beat it, let alone a mere trend following strategy or other human shoe's compliance approaches.

Maybe a mix of the two could be helpful but the main issue we should be focused at is the classification of the actual shoe needing several factors to be ascertained.

More later

as.

I have a perfect example!!!

I will post it under my section with a board of the actual shoe. 

Not patting myself on the back, but I did extremely well and only another 2 people did.  The rest lost or wagered against it all. 

If I didn't remove myself from desire and prediction, I would not have profited nearly as much.  With a possibility of getting sucked in, if I gave back a considerable amount of the win.  Maybe you guys don't, but I do all too often. 

I will post a link here as well to the thread.

CLICK HERE:  https://betselection.cc/actual-baccarat-shoes/think-and-be-smart/msg72689/#msg72689

That's good Al, we'll wait for your link

HERE: ((With reasoning, not armchair quarterbacking).

https://betselection.cc/actual-baccarat-shoes/think-and-be-smart/msg72689/#msg72689

Baccarat results are distributed by a kind of an on/off model but the average card distribution is not, meaning that some distributions are more likely than others.
That means that in the short/intermediate terms a slight but constant force will polarize the results by more likely ranges that of course will be "almost" neutralized by those not average shoes deviating at various levels from the norm.

In a nutshell our betting options are restricted into three different categories:

a) A pattern or two patterns are going to be clustered at least one time (a1); then we'll get a2, a3, etc. clustered scenarios;

b) A pattern is going to be isolated (I), that is followed by an opposite pattern;

c) A pattern or (more unlikely) two patterns had never shown up so far (N).

We've seen that average shoes will more likely include a1, a2, a3 and I patterns, whatever arranged (permutation issue); N is the pivotal factor to get most of our edge as an asymmetrical world is destined to get "silent" the remaining elements so endorsing the probability that all possible other patterns will come out.
Now we shouldn't be worried about the precise pattern's shape (a1, a2, a3 or I) coming out, we'd just try to get rid of the pattern that had never shown up so far, meaning that it's just a "level" consideration to be made and obviously it's better to wait a given pattern to be built before thinking to place a bet.

By doing this we're limiting the randomness world and exploiting an average asymmetrical card distribution as "silent" elements will let the remaining patterns to be more clustered than average.

Obviously up to a point as low numbers (I, a1, a2 and a3) will be slight more probable than huge numbers.

Notice that even if casinos virtually want to deal "all patterns" being balanced, such thing comes out at our favor as now pattern ranges are more limited than average.

So the main group of fatal mistakes to do are chasing what didn't appear so far and hoping that a given univocal pattern will come out "too" long.

Examples.

Shoe #1 (many hands were discarded at the start of the shoe--precious hint).

I-I-I-I-I-I-a3-a3-I-a1-I-a1.

Think of every element coming out, not knowing what will come out next: Are we going to bet towards a2?

Shoe #2.

a2-a1-a1-a3-I-a1-I-I-I-a1-I.

In this shoe every element had come out, anyway just one deviated pattern happened (a3) and at the intermediate/final portion of the shoe only low number patterns happened (I or a1).

When in doubt go either for the silent pattern to prolong its absence or towards low numbers (that is anything but a a3).

Mix every possible pattern whatever you want, itlr either one or two silent patterns will happen for a decent time or, more likely, low numbers (I and a1 OR a1 and a2) will come out clustered at least one time.

Such propensity doesn't work ALL OF THE TIMES but MOST OF THE TIMES, so capable to reach and surpass the famous B 51.3% and P 50.1% probability cutoff values worth of playing a sure fkng indeniable EV+ game.

See you next week

as.

BTW, thanks for your interest in reading my pages and keeping to read this wonderful site.
400k views are a very good accomplishment, thanks.

If anyone has a bit of hope to beat this game (and taking back the money lost), well, you are in the best place to get some hints. By far. And, more importantly, for free.

There are very illustrious players posting here: Alrelax and KFB. Both are very experienced players and at baccarat experience and proper knowledge is everything.

We know that as long as a verified math propensity isn't devised and proved, well we're talking about bighorn.stuff, but that's an advantage for us.
At baccarat we can play mathematically "wrong" and betting thousands by being labeled as clowns, no problem with that.

After all, not every baccarat supervisor will be 100% certain that the game is unbeatable.
And they are right. 

as.

"Is asymmetry defined by a result involving 5 cards, while symmetry refers to results with 4 or 6 cards? After identifying symmetric and asymmetric results, do you sometimes distinguish asymmetry and collect statistics when P and B follow a symmetric pattern? After that, when a certain result appears, is B progression betting after a single P or PP one of the methods AsymBacGuy refers to?

I have lost a lot of money by betting purely based on emotions. Now, I want to engage in an approach that I can at least understand to some extent. Since I am weak in math and statistics, I learn best through repetitive practice, which is why I am asking about this method.

Hi lovepreaks!

Basically 5-card hands are the core of the asymmetry whereas 4-card and 6-card hands constitute the symmetry. Of course we are interested about the "ranges" of such different situations transformed into actual results so we're obviously forced to consider asymmetry and symmetry at the real BP sequence and derived successions.

It's a fact that at baccarat the least distribution to show up is a kind of "overalternating" mood of two fighting opposite events; an example is when consecutive doubles come out in a row thus the CFS is 1 per every two hands dealt (+-+-+-..).
The most part of the remaining distributions are made of univocal distributions getting low/moderate levels of deviation (++, +++ or -- and ---).

When complex patterns are considered, better will be the prediction as whenever many hands are needed to produce a pattern, the overall asymmetrical strenght will get rid of both some "incidental results" and natural variance.

Progressively wagering B after P and PP is not an option that I recommend as those are patterns too easy to come out so lacking the "complex" requisite.   
   
I have lost a lot of money by betting purely based on emotions

We all did.
Casinos prosper about players' emotions a lot more than by exploiting the math edge.

Baccarat is a strict technical game where successions are somewhat "biased" by more likely ranges that have nothing to do with mere math; it's up to us to define what are the more probable ranges intervening in the process and without any doubt in many instances best move to take is to stay still.

More later

as.

Asymmetry/symmetry considerations about bac successions

Symmetrical situations are slight less likely than asymmetrical situations and of course asymmetrical situations cannot stand for long most of the times.
More precisely asymmetrical situations will come out more probably (so more clustered) than symmetrical situations, anyway we have to respectively approximate at best the asym/sym appearance by setting up a "cutoff" value as just one hand might easily change a more natural (expected) flow into a moderate/strong deviation pattern. Obviously we're way more interested to avoid moderate/strong symmetrical distributions than stopping the asymmetrical counterpart.

Suppose we have two fighting A and B events (patterns, situations) forming an original succession and several derived sub successions.

We might empirically consider as symmetrical (s) those patterns:

1s) ABAA.. and BABB..

2s) AABBA and BBAAB

3s) AAA..BBB.. and BBB..AAA..

On the other end we'll get the asymmetrical (a) patterns counterpart being:

1a) ABB or BAA

2a) AABA or BBAB and AABBB.. or BBAAA..

3a) AAA..BA or AAA..BBA and BBB..AB or BBB..AAB

Once a pattern had surpassed the 2-step level we have taken as a "cutoff" value and dictating whether a pattern is either labeled as asymmetrical or as symmetrical, we're not interested to know what the fk happens next, unless a new opposite category shows up.

Now we have transformed a BP succession into an Asym/Sym sequence that is slight less likely to produce strong overalternating moods, especially if we are taking care of the different 1-step and 2-step probability situations.

That means that asymmetrical or symmetrical spots are more probable to produce clusters at any side of the spectrum and when they're not the asymmetrical subtle force itlr will deviate the results by forming low-level more likely ranges.

What is really interesting to notice after thousands and thousands of real live shoes tested is that whenever a given precise Asym/Sym pattern level hadn't shown up so far, we should consider it as a kind of "not existent" pattern so increasing the probability of other patterns coming out.

As a side note we've found particularly useful to read and study the Yerkes-Dodson law (1908) as without the use of a software baccarat remains a strong human challenge vs a "machine".

as.

Good topic and discussion lovepreaks. I look forward to your further discussion with AsymBacGuy.




Continued Success,

As long as cards are asymmetrically distributed along any shoe dealt (100% of the times),

As clusters > S clusters and As isolated events < S isolated events.

Unlikely distributions, incidents and natural variance will make the overalternating mood as the least probable happening so possibly inverting the above propositions.

Therefore sometimes S clusters will predominate over As clusters; at a lesser degree S isolated events will be more restricted in their appearance than average so privileging S clusters.
That further denies the overalternating mood appearance.

When in doubt go either for low/moderate levels of asymmetry better by trying to by pass the lowest losing levels or tell the casino to wait for inferior players action by not betting a fkng nothing.

If properly executed and by choosing the right random walks,  this plan is equal or superior than the edge sorting technique.

as.

We're deadly sure that the asymmetry/symmetry issue is the main tool to extract an advantage from.
Simplyfing:

S-S = stop the betting

S= what to bet next depends about the previous As/S texture

As-S= bet As

S-As= bet As

As= almost always bet As

As-As= caution, sky's the limit but what we have secured should remain in our pockets.

So any hand dealt is a new hand my a$$, cards are arranged to make more probable asymmetrical situations than symmetrical ones.
Situations seemingly belonging to a kind of steady symmetrical world are just springing from incidents, natural variance or weird unlikely card distributions.

Now a careful multilayered progressive plan cannot be wrong as:

First level of confidence:

As-As > As-S

S-As > S-S

Second level of confidence:

Any S-S happened previously somewhat reduces the S-As propensity at a new pattern.

Any As-As and S-As events happened previously endorse the As-As and S-As propensity at a new pattern.

Third level of confidence:

- As-As coming out clustered twice previously is not a good indicator to bet again towards another As-As pattern;

- S-S coming out clustered twice is a good indicator that the next S will be followed by As and not S.

- S-As coming out clustered twice is an excellent indicator that next pattern will be of the same shape (that is that S will come out as isolated again).

To provide a vulgar example say the shoe went as:

BB
PP
BBBBBB
PPPPP
B
P
BB

Such fragment will form a S-S-S sequence (BBPP, BBB../PPP.., BP).
Run the derived roads and such symmetry will go down the toilet.
In fact only the sr will form one symmetrical pattern. Everything else will produce asymmetrical patterns either at sr and at the remaining roads.

as.

I understand you're relying on an AI translator and learning from its sometimes inaccurate outputs. I also realize you perceive yourself as a slower learner, which must be frustrating. Please excuse any awkward phrasing, as English isn't my first language. Given my focus on prioritizing asymmetrical betting situations based on patterns, how can I best predict betting positions? What's the most effective way to study and pinpoint betting timings within these patterns? Could you illustrate with an example? Specifically, if the sequence is B → P → B → P → P → B → B → B → P, what would be a reasonable prediction for the next bet after the last three hands, B B P B NEXT ->B B P? P B B?

I realize that asking such direct questions could be perceived as impolite by someone of your caliber. Please accept my apologies. However, as a non-native English speaker, I find it quite difficult to keep up with the nuanced discussions in this community. Nonetheless, I'm resolved to no longer be disadvantaged, which is why I'm writing this. Even if I lose money, I want to understand the rationale behind my bets. Or, to put it more bluntly, I simply don't want to lose

Lovepreaks, your fine.  We understand your English.  Please ask.  Many do not post here any longer because they created and lived on drama.  I will not have that.

Our read rate is very high.  The posting rate is not because of all the bad mouth and drama created on other forums about us. 

Your questions are fine.  Thanks for your interest. 

Alrelax
Forum Administrator & Owner
Baccarat Player in B&M

Your method is difficult, so please verify if this is correct. This translation was done using ChatGPT.

Third-Level Confidence Analysis
When an S-S cluster occurs consecutively two or more times, the likelihood of the next pattern shifting to asymmetry (As) increases significantly.

BBPP → S-S (1st occurrence)

BBBBBB → S-S (2nd occurrence)

PPPPP → S-S (3rd occurrence)

Since the S-S clusters have appeared three times in a row, the probability of another symmetrical (S) pattern continuing is low, while the likelihood of an asymmetric (As) shift is much higher.

In other words, the S-S-S-S sequence is approaching a breaking point, making an asymmetric transition more probable.

📌 Expected Next Pattern & Betting Strategy
✔ Since S-S has repeated 3 to 4 times, the probability of another S (symmetrical) pattern is significantly reduced.
✔ The next pattern is more likely to be asymmetric (As).
✔ Predicted possible patterns:

BP or PB (1-1 formation, asymmetric)

BBP or PPB (2-1 formation, asymmetric)

Hi lp!

Actually things are much more complicated as I talked about A and B events and not about mere B or P hands.

For example a BBBBBB or BBBBBBBBBBBB or PPP or PPPPPP patterns should be considered as asymmetrical (or symmetrical) in relationship of the previous pattern and not by their shape alone.
Therefore BBBBBB could be either an asymmetrical or a symmetrical pattern by what came out previously.
The same about blue/red derived roads or any other random walk you want to utilize.

Then, since each shoe is a world apart, levels of confidence should be approximated by the number and ranges of asymmetrical or symmetrical situations just happened.
Low symmetrical patterns are a general rule, but the actual route must be carefully defined as just one hand could transform an asymmetrical pattern or sequence into a symmetrical pattern or sequence; obviously such thing might happen by an opposite fashion, anyway not constituting the propensity we're really wanting to exploit.

More later

as.