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The Introduction Zone - say Hi here if you're new! (Read 1013 times)

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autobetic

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(note: this is a repost of my introduction on the Baccarat Pro by Autobetic thread in the Baccarat Forum - just in case you missed it there)


Greetings BetSelection's Autobetic Community!

My name is Sid and Im the founder of Autobetic.com. Im really excited to have joined this forum and Im hoping it will allow me to reach out to like-minded people, make new friends, and improve my new Baccarat App. I chose to kick things off here at BetSelection because I felt the Baccarat Forum here had a really interesting and passionate community!

Besides the usual introduction, I thought the best way to kick things off was to share my motivation behind building the Baccarat Pro App, as well as starting Autobetic.

I used to go by the moniker PuntPundit a long time ago, and back then I used to write quite a bit for gambling related reading/marketing material - both offline and online.

My love for gambling goes way back. I played poker professionally (online) for a while (about 3 years part-time, and a year full-time) but I had to stop in 2013 because the authorities in my country (Singapore) outlawed remote gambling.

I am extremely analytical, mathematical, and data-centric (and I pursued a career in the tech and digital space after poker). So thats typically the approach I take towards all of my betting pursuits.

Some of you might already be asking:
Why would a Poker player build a Baccarat App? Shouldn't you know better?

Yea, I should. Baccarat is a -EV game (if you dont know what EV is and if youre serious about being a better gambler, read my article about Expected Value). It can't be beat at the casino in the long run. The odds are always working against you, even if you catch a break on the good side of variance every now and then.

So why then? Because of a silly little thing called love.

I'm marrying the girl of my dreams this July. I met her shortly after I stopped playing poker professionally and got a regular job in 2014. Shortly after we first met, I told her (almost braggingly) about my poker past (which I have always been rather proud of). But she was very disturbed. She said she couldn't be with a gambler. Her father, who had left when she was born, had a gambling problem. He was always concocting strategies, making crazy bets, and chasing the big win - that never came. He always thought he could beat Baccarat. He begged, borrowed, and stole. And then he left without saying goodbye. As far as she was concerned, gambling (especially Baccarat) tore her family apart. Her mom, through much hardship had to raise her alone all while dealing with the debt that her father had left behind. In short, it was rough.

Being the analytical person that I am, I took a very data-centric argument to the whole thing. I loved gambling and felt that it was a beautiful thing if properly understood and done responsibly. And I wanted to make her understand that.

I taught her how to play poker (she does at least pretend to enjoy it now), and educated her on gambling theory. I even got her to read some of my blog posts, especially the one explaining Expected Value which I think anyone who gambles on anything should read and comprehend before placing a bet. And then I got to wondering, what could I do to educate people like her Dad (he passed away a few years back, she never got to meet him) in a meaningful way? How could I show people who were researching Baccarat strategies or falling for scam strategy sellers that it wasn't going to work? How could I save another family from going through what hers did?

I took to Baccarat the same way I had approached Poker. First, by studying the math behind the game, then by researching strategies (including many of those that were and still are being sold online), running my own simulations, and speaking with people who were far more experienced in the matter than I was (like many of you here!). Along the way I made some friends who were extremely intelligent people and yet had fallen for Baccarat scams. All of that turned into a quest to build an App that would not just calculate strategies from a mathematical point of view (which would not account for things like variance) but for a real world scenario. A simulation software that would deal unique hands each time (unlike the Zuma shoes everyone uses) and would be meaningful (and easy) enough to use for seasoned gambling professionals, newbies, and at-risk Baccarat gamblers.

The result: Baccarat Pro by Autobetic.

The App is currently available on the iOS App store and were working hard to get the Android version up within the next 2-3 months. You can view a demo of how it works here. It's not perfect, but based on all the research I've done it's the best one out there. I'm hoping with your insights, feedback, and experience we can make it even better. After all, there is a lot of Baccarat brain power in here.

While there is a paid Premium component to the App which unlocks some features, the free version doesn't restrict too much. And if you're using this to help folks who are at-risk of causing harm to themselves or their family, just reach out to me and I'll waive the cost (as well as help in any way I can). The money we make from this simply goes back into creating new Apps (were hoping to hit Blackjack, Roulette, and Poker next).

Thank you for taking the time to read this. I look forward to participating in this forum and connecting with all of you enlightened Baccarat pros! More than anything else, Im here to learn.


8OR9

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The app looks good and I wish you success........but as you said, the only benefit of it is to test "mechanical" methods being sold by system sellers to show that no mechanical system can beat baccarat......and all systems will show the same 1.3 % advantage the casino has over the customer......and so maybe you can help some people to keep them from wasting money.

How to beat bac? ......basically "follow the shoe" ( which is the same as looking for patterns......which sometimes work .....and sometimes do not work )  .........only risk a small % of bankroll on each shoe or session........and have a sufficient bankroll to withstand the inevitable drawdowns......just like an intelligent poker player approaches poker.....and since you are playing a negative expectation baccarat game, have a strategy to deal with the bankroll situation where you will eventually have to increase your bet size.
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autobetic

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The app looks good and I wish you success........but as you said, the only benefit of it is to test "mechanical" methods being sold by system sellers to show that no mechanical system can beat baccarat......and all systems will show the same 1.3 % advantage the casino has over the customer......and so maybe you can help some people to keep them from wasting money.

How to beat bac? ......basically "follow the shoe" ( which is the same as looking for patterns......which sometimes work .....and sometimes do not work )  .........only risk a small % of bankroll on each shoe or session........and have a sufficient bankroll to withstand the inevitable drawdowns......just like an intelligent poker player approaches poker.....and since you are playing a negative expectation baccarat game, have a strategy to deal with the bankroll situation where you will eventually have to increase your bet size.
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Thanks 809R!

Technically speaking there isn't a way to "beat bac". But something cool this App can do is teach you how to manage your bankroll better (or set realistic bankroll/bet expectations for you). A very large part of playing poker intelligently is bankroll management. When I used to play tournaments, my daily grind included playing a $7 buy-in, 18-player Sit & Go. I used to fire up as many of these tables as possible. My win rate was consistent and I was very sure I could take down the $14 or $32 games as well - but I didn't go there until my Bankroll hit $14k (1,000x). I never went to the $32 table because my BR never reached $32k. It took a lot of discipline but what made it easier was my knowledge of the up and downswings that were possible due to variance.

Similarly, if you would like to take the approach of looking for patterns then it would be pretty useful to run a simulation of your planned bet progression on your respective strategy set (across 10,000 shoes) - which will then allow you to make a more informed decision of what kind of BR you need to survive and what your bet unit should be.

So I agree with everything you say, except your last line "have a strategy to deal with the bankroll situation where you will eventually have to increase your bet size." - that one sounds like a desperate move which probably wouldn't end well ;)


PS: I'm not sure if you went for the Pro version of the App....but if you didn't, could I interest you in sharing your best 'follow the pattern' strategy and I'll run a 10k-shoe sim for you! Let me know.

8OR9

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Baseball great Ted Williams wrote a book "How to Hit a Major League Curve Ball"  ........  so if you read the book you can hit a major league curve ball......right? .......well do you think you can hit a major league curve ball when you had to face Nolan Ryan who was throwing a  100MPH fastball which was moving up and down like a yo-yo and which you probably couldn't even see coming at you, and then looking at a 95 MPH curve ball that was coming right at your head and then breaking right over the strike zone at the last second ?

The same is true with baccarat......I don't think most players  can explain in a book or computer code how they play..............for me it's mostly looking at some patterns and if  I  "feel" like it might work, I bet it.........and if not I don't bet.

The patterns I use are not the standard Banker / Player patterns but a derivation of them.....and sometimes they work and sometimes not. 

The main goal  in bac, roulette, sports betting, poker  or stock/futures  trading is not to "Make Money" but the main goal is bankroll preservation.......because if your bankroll or trading capital is gone, it's back to a career of " Do you want fries with that "?

As I said in a previous thread, the only way to preserve your bankroll is to limit risk as a small    % of Bankroll for each bet, or each session, or each trade, so that a series of catastrophic losing bets or trades will not destroy your bankroll...................and since all these games are negative expectation  games ( -EV) , you are an under dog in every bet or trade you make and you will eventually have to increase your bet size ....but in a very conservative manner ....which of course eliminates 99% of bac players as written of in other posts, describing players who have unfortunately lost huge sums of money ......and currently one player I know is currently down a little north of  $ 500,000. 

Gambling on casino games is similar to trading stocks or futures........the constant battle between fear and greed,  battling within your own emotional makeup.................and if you can't control those two emotions.........you are doomed to failure.

alrelax

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Pretty good 8OR9 but you left out females and muscle cars. 
My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

Played a minimum of 24,000 (Plus) shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

"Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

8OR9

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If I may re-quote the famous line from the film "Rounders" starring Matt Damon and Ed Norton        ( if you never played poker, this quote will not make sense )

"Women are the rake in life"

autobetic

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Haha, I do like your perspective on things 8OR9 - you sound like a classic gambler!

Guess there's never a hard right or wrong when it comes to these things. I do believe that old school gamblers have an indescribable, unmeasurable, and sometimes unbelievable instinct that turns them into sharks at the casino. But I suppose I come from a very different world...one where we grew up using Heads Up Displays, Hand Analysing Software, and all kinds of tech we could get our hands on to improve our game. So I suppose at some level mine is a generation that looks to a smart phone for answers as opposed to the human brain (or intuition).


PS: I'm afraid your Baseball reference was totally lost on me though. I've never played/watched it. In this part of the world it's all about soccer. Lol  :football: