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[alrelax]

From 8OR9, that was contained within another thread on the board:
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I have seen a chop that was 16 hands long........as many of the posters on the forum have also seen.......which will kill this method.

Also most shoes are garbage shoes, with most streaks ending in 2 , 3 or 4 in a row...........which will also give you a big loss using this method.

Looks like you need a few shoes with a long streak ( 8 or 9 bankers or players in a row) which will give you a good profit and overcome your many losing shoes.

As in most forms of gambling, you can produce a profit if your bankroll can handle the inevitable large drawdowns .....just like starting your own business, most businesses fail because they are not sufficiently capitalized ( bankrolled )  to withstand the initial start up costs and lack of brand recognition, and the inevitable downturns in the business cycle.
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Problem is, 'Anything and Everything' all the time! 

I was at the casino last night. 

Fresh shoe.  Right out of the gate.  First hand Panda 8.  Next 6 hands straight Player.  Total of 7 Player hands straight.  Then a N9 for the Banker comes about.  Then a straight 6 hands for the Banker.  Total of 7 Banker hands straight. 

Then up to half way, right at hand 41, everything between there looked perfectly matched.  The first 7 P's followed by 7 B's as outlined.  Then a few chops-alternating and then a few 2's/Doubles then perfect 'V's and then some 4's.  Then garbage as they say, nothing to follow. 

Two people made huge money.  All other 6 players lost huge on the entire shoe.  The 2 people that made the huge money, one got up and left after it dead off to 'normal' and the other stayed and blew it on the following shoe.

I have talked about all this.  It is reality.  Reality in real and hard-core hand by hand decision making presentments. 

It might come and it might not. 

[soxfan]

I thought that you was done posting on here? Any ways you represent what I have said. I never said a cat can win EVERY single day. I have said that a cat is gonna get clipped for progression busts and have losing day, sessions, and some losing week,, hey hey.

[ChopChop]

Which player were you? 

[alrelax]

Which player were you?

I rather not say......

[ChopChop]

Nuff said...

[Jimske]

Which player were you?

You kidding?  He'd rather mot say?  He is DYING to say and can hardly hold it in!  LOL  Just a matter of time.
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I'll try to say something about bet placement and following the shoe.  First of all the easiest is a streaky shoe with few 1's and longer repeats - like the shoe Glen mentioned he played last night.  Long P followed by long B or vice versa happens enough times.  And happens any time during the shoe.  I bet a lot of hands in a shoe so I generally start with a simple bet placement that just follows what happened before.  Doesn't matter whether it's a longish streak or longish chop.  So yeah, I would have won a bunch of hands right out the gate in that shoe.

If that "signature" continues it's just an easy money shoe but generally it doesn't and if you keep betting the same way you begin to lose.  So now you got to change the bet placement to try and conform with what the shoe is giving.  If you get lucky you might find some real consistent pattern like 121212 (I've seen that go 21 times) or any number of patterns but mostly the shoe gives some random junk patterns. 

When that happens its' a matter of guessing a decent placement and betting a W/L pattern with appropriate betting techniques while defining what the shoe is doing and guessing that what you see will continue enough to allow the betting to win more of the larger bets than smaller bets.  It's a grind!

IMO the game is mostly a betting game.  I bet most every hand until I quit the shoe.  Lots of guys do what I call spot betting.  Just look for some dominance in the shoe.  Dominance could be a lot of things from strong side to one side showing mostly repeats the other showing more singletons, repeat lengths never going more than a certain number, W/L pattern, strength of OTBL/TBL, etc.  Doesn't really matter.  One guess is good as another. 

One thing Glen never says or at least I never read is if he spot plays or bets most hands or if he spreads his bets or keeps his bets tight.

Hope that adds a little insight.

[ChopChop]

So you follow the shoe and bet every hand.  What about your bet sizing? 1 unit for every bet, progression, etc. ?  Did you make side bets  (dragon,panda)?

[Jimske]

So you follow the shoe and bet every hand.  What about your bet sizing? 1 unit for every bet, progression, etc. ?  Did you make side bets  (dragon,panda)?

I keep my bets tight.  I don't flat bet and I rarely play the side bets.  I use structured placements attempting to conform to the shoe signature.

Maybe Glen will opine on his style of play?  We know he uses MM but other than some psycho-babble stuff he really doesn't talk about how he determines his placements.

[Gizmotron]

... he really doesn't talk about how he determines his placements.

That's really what people want to know. So Why not just discuss it? That is what people accused me of not explaining for years. The mathGuys always want me to give an obvious response to hypothetical situations that are without context only allowing for some kind of undefended answer to be used as some kind of trap. But then there are other people that really want to know how guessing works. I'll think about it. Perhaps on another thread, a new thread.

[alrelax]

Maybe Glen will opine on his style of play?  We know he uses MM but other than some psycho-babble stuff he really doesn't talk about how he determines his placements.

You seem to desire to demean with the words, 'psycho-babble' as you stated in your posting, which I think is judgemental and pretty self-serving for boasting your own position, whatever that might be. 

Anyway,  I have no definitive wagers that are scheduled, planned, always made, systematic, etc., and all of those type of things.

Some have deduced down and classified my play, as attacking from all sides.  In a way, that is correct, but in many ways--it is not.

I use many things as I outlined and many of you do not read, understand or take the time to digest my writings.  For whatever reason, that is your prerogative 100%, 110% in fact!  But, when you come off and ask in the way you just did, it is really provoking and poking a shoulder to engage. 

For the members that have not followed the animosity and the personal shoving matches here, I will answer Jimske's question, the best I can.  Like I have posted in countless posts, I do not believe in any systematic wagering plans or schedules.  Meaning, wagering for a certain event/shoe presentment(s) to happen.  I wager according to many things, of which I attempted to define in my Blog on this board, in the highlighted section on the first page within the series of 10 threads, (1 of 10 through 10 of 10) would cover numerous things I wager by and believe in with the game of baccarat.

The foremost being, 'Sections and Turning Points' with a vision of what has had happened, what did not happen and what frequently happens without losing track of what happens infrequently but does appear.  Mixed with complete consciousness of my emotions, psych, and everything else along those lines including the most important two, frame-of-mind and using your experience.  As soon as I double or even triple my buy-in, I employ a money management system that wholly governs my wagering, placement of my buy in back in locked-up safety as well as my solid stop point, etc.  My buy in is my risk money, I employ no conventional stop loss or win stop, except that of my money management system with a positive progression of 'non-set' protocol once I am satisfied with the win amount above my initial buy in. 

My bank rolls are holy.  My buy-in is my risk capital for that immediate session.  I have no 'Up' status on the casino, it is the wrong frame-of-mind to myself to ever possess, leads me to levels and plateaus that will destroy myself.  At least they have countless times in the past, that is what I label as using your experience.  I replenish bank roll losses of any previously lost buy-ins, when I win.  I only have a status of being, 'Even' or 'Down' with relationship to what my bank roll is at.  Like I refer to, always, my wins replenish the bank rolls and all other win money is spent, therefore turning intangibles into the tangible, providing me with extreme motivation, energy and wherewithal to make money, maintain the bank rolls, understand what risk capital is and stay at the same level and plateaus I have proved myself successful at.  Successful to my own liking, not wealthy by any definable measurements (as far as USA dollars/figures go) but most indefinably winning considerably more than losing and maintaining a bankroll that has not been depleted for about 16 years or so. 

Is this side-ways talking?  No.  Have I done well with my 'ways and means'?  Absolutely!  I have never replaced my local bank roll I have in about 16 years out of my career money/other funds available.  Meaning, I have always been able to replace the lost buy-ins before depleting my local bank roll, period.  As well, I use and spend all the win money in and above my bank roll the same night or next day after the win.  I have provided pictures, receipts and details regarding this and I have been explicitly blasted, chastised, humiliated and demeaned by regualr members of this board in relation to those.  When the real purpose was to show, garner interest and attempt to get people on their own track to exploring and using what might really help them be profitable and play better themselves. 

Baccarat resembles life in general.  There are opportunities and presentments that can be viewed as possible 'waves' with varying degrees of realization and recognition by the player.  What I see, another player might see the exact opposite, either of us could be correct and both of us might just be dead-on wrong.  However, there is no way to describe my bet-placements within a post, a paragraph or definitive schedule, because  one does not exist.  If you are looking for such a 'quick-way' to make a fortune gambling, may I suggest another forum might openly provide just that, or better yet--perhaps joining a group of professional elite multi-million dollar successful baccarat gamblers for a sum around $51.69 a month that will put you on that proverbial easy-street.

In my 37 years or so of playing baccarat and table games, I have discovered and proven to myself that there is no regular scheduled protocol one can employ to sit down and win at baccarat by employing on a text-book scale.  I am sorry that statement of fact and experience, gets people here upset and annoyed. 

As well, there are other things a player must learn, understand, employ and subscribe to--in order to maintain his bankroll, enjoy his winnings and be justified to continue the playing of baccarat.  As we all will always think and engage with various stages of desire and what each of us believes to be a goal, our paths-directions and journeys to make money along the way, will be different and complicated. As much as anyone, I wish it was as simple as  saying, "wager on 'so and so' after 'such and such' appears and 85% of the time you will prevail, therefore you have to win 35% of your wagers, etc.', it just does not work that way, (at least being profitable and positive over the proverbial long-run or at least anything close to that anyway) never did--never will.  That is why those tables are in the casinos.   

You have to discover, understand and refine it for yourself, before it can become tangible in real-life play.

[alrelax]

My explanation in the above post #9 is still pretty accurate and might explain some important 'things' to the newer members here on my board.

Unfortunately on all the other forums all they talk about is how much they won and how they continually win showing W's and L's, they very seldom lose a shoe or session, if in fact they ever lose.

[KungFuBac]

Many excellent opinions by some of our forum members. I will highlight several and start with one of my favorites:

"...As in most forms of gambling, you can produce a profit if your bankroll can handle the inevitable large drawdowns .....just like starting your own business, most businesses fail because they are not sufficiently capitalized ( bankrolled )  to withstand the initial start up costs and lack of brand recognition, and the inevitable downturns in the business cycle..."

    IMO this is crucial. We should manage our daily play based on weekly/monthly/annual projections--Just like a business. I like to conceptualize my buyin as Im buying inventory that I need to figure out a way to sell this inventory back to the casino (hopefully for a profit). The buyer(casino) has some advantages; however, the seller has some options in their favor too.
    *Its difficult to make money selling our inventory back at cost or 98.85% of cost, or $0. I try to avoid selling that black chip back for $100, or $98.85, or $0 dollars. Unfortunately this past week I had several sessions I did just that(lost money on that inventory and the casino made a nice profit buying their $100 widget back for $0).
However, the previous week I sold a black chip back for $1795, one for $2060, and one for $3290.

More later,