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[alrelax]

I had my own up on the high-line from 2002 to 2013, sold it all to go in another business.  Got side tracked and things went into limbo.  The partner now made me a great offer.  Without putting up my own capital, I took the offer as an opportunity to make as much or more than I did before.  Not what I ultimately want to do, but like I said I was between careers. 

[soxfan]

I think some cats are being unrealistic as far as profits expectations. My average daily profits is equal to just about 3% of my lifetime roll but that plenty enough to feed the bulldog, hey hey.

[HunchBacShrimp]

Rolex,

First off, I may have inadvertently crossed a line outwardly speculating about your personal financial level. I don't blame myself much, it wasn't an easy line to see. Even now you continue to post winnings of 30 to 60k. Speculating further, I'm would imagine there are many instances of you having large sums of winnings in your pocket. In reference to the 30k I was talking about in roulette winnings that you say was baccarat winnings....you know, its your money, in your pocket at your IT meeting. I cannot say with certainty where it came from. However, I came across the story, reading threads written by you relating to roulette. About making wagers before the croupier put the ball in motion, winning big for several sessions and then going back only to have croupiers switched out that you later suspected were exerting control over the outcome and intentionally made you lose it all back. This being a thread where you are explaining how the casinos cheated you early in your gambling career.

But it doesn't really matter where the money came from or how much it was. You and your friend could have been talking about turning 1 mil into 10 mil and just related it to the 100k for a matter of simplicity.

As for believing what people say on the internet without a face to face meeting. My choices are limited. Not much I can do accept take it at face value and use the information for discussion purposes and just keep a mental check that the information is consistent. This I do with everything I read on the internet, including what you write, GR8, and the rest. There is no risk to myself here. I'm not investing any real capital into any internet claims.

Pushing on to the meat of the conversation. Its not the dollar amount but the number of units. It seems the unit size is $25 with a BR of 4000 units. With a win goal of just 40 units a day. No mention of a daily BR, but the OP implies the full 100k is in play at all sessions to insure a 1k win. This is a very large "spread". Certainly seems to me to be more than sufficient to ride out the shifts in variance not in your bet selections favor, as long as the bettor himself doesn't balloon their MM out of control.

Still, no mechanical method will work. Composure ( discipline and patience ) is paramount in deploying the proper MM. And the proper MM is what it is all about. All bet selections being considered equal according to the math. I'm not sure what your pattern capturing technique is, but I can't imagine it's performance being better than 50/50. We've already gone over your column approach, its performance is no different than any other bet sequence of equal length.

I don't know what point of interest you want to talk about. There are two things I want to discuss. Partners and Progressions.

I think the whole partner idea is the biggest gamble. The worst bet. It will take someone you can trust. These people tend to be friends, friends make the worst enemies. Only someone you trust can con you. And money, unpredictably, does the strangest things to people.

Even if your partner does half the gambling, and comes up with half the BR. What happens when one of you starts out performing the other? The best one of the two of you will start to think they can do this themselves. One of you may start shaving off a few chips here and there. Maybe the guy pulling all the weight thinks he deserves it, maybe the lagger thinks the other guy can continue to take up his slack plus an added unit or two per night. Maybe one of you wrongly suspects the other of cheating so starts cheating themselves. Maybe someone starts pocketing everything over 1k.

Selfish greed and covetous thoughts are in 99.99 percent of the population, maybe more. It's very very rare person that truly isn't concerned about someone elses belongings. Especially money. A lot of times it doesn't even manifest itself until the object of their desire is staring them in the face. My favorite quote about money comes from Danny Devito in Heist with Gene Hackman. " I know you need money, everybody needs money, that's why they call it money"

Have you considered the problems a partner can cause? Have you considered finding a $10 game and using 40k for a 4000u BR. Is it all about a non bettor watching your composure and warning you when you reach gamblers tilt? Will you be receptive to constructive criticism? Will your partner?

BTW big difference between going to work 330 days a year and getting guaranteed compensation either by the hour or in the form of a salary and going to a casino and playing a game of chance. You might get screwed out of some money owed you by an employer, but your not going to risk a year, month or even a weeks pay everyday you show up for work.

Progressions.
Aside from the negative progressions every MM is that isn't flat betting. Have you considered just chipping up after each 4000 units won? Instead of grinding out the same 2k every day for a year, once you reach 8000u divide by two and reduce it to a 4000u BR once again and grind out the same number of units daily but with a dollar value of 4000. This will bring your 1mil win goal in sight much faster. Allow you to propel beyond it with increasing acceleration. And once you hit 600k, grinding out 2k a day isn't going to have the same feeling of accomplishment that it did when you only had 200k. It becomes a smaller and smaller percentage as you successfully continue to win.

HBS

[HunchBacShrimp]

Hey Soxfan,

Alright, I can dig that. If you had strong success winning 3u with a 100u BR and a max draw down of only about a third of that then winning only 1u should be even easier. Well, maybe not easier, but successful more often.

Thanks for your response.

HBS

[HunchBacShrimp]

WBK,

I think its much less than 1%. I have no data to back up my assumptions, accept maybe the existence of so many casinos and so many gamblers anonymous meetings.

I think maybe 1 in 1,000 people actually lose just the expected amount of appropriate HE against their action or only a few standard deviations from it.

I think 1 in 10,000 lose less than they should according to the appropriate HE against their action, but are still down over all.

I think 1 in 100,000 are even or only up a tiny bit, but still down considering travel costs, food, tips etc.

I think 1 in 1,000,000 are up for a lifetime, but not a significant amount, or if it is a significant amount its from a big hit and they aren't spending much time if any in a casino anymore.

I think 1 in 10,000,000 are up a decent amount for a lifetime, continue to gamble, win and lose, but maintain a positive net winning.

I think 1 in 100,000,000 can consistently win, either from pure luck or skill, and are increasing their net gain as time goes on.

You get my drift. No research in the numbers, just a pattern of 1% of 1% and then 1% of that etc. It's got to be a rare occurrence. Equally as rare as someone born with nothing, no family money, and achieving $100 millionaire status.

HBS

[greenguy]

if someone has 100k bankroll, could they guarantee themselves 1,000 everyday in casino. if yes how would someone play with these  bankroll?

Yes I could. I would split a 100k lifetime bankroll into 20 working banks of 5k each, and it would take 6 hours play each day.

But I'm too lazy for all that.. $500 a day is more doable, only got to play 3 hours.


[smiley]cactus/aw000.gif[/smiley]

After giving this some extensive thought, I admit I would not be able to "GUARANTEE" $1000 every day with a 100k bankroll.

I could not guarantee it even if you averaged it out so that winning some days and losing some days, you will still net $1000 per day.

Furthermore, I'm pretty sure - almost certain; there is not a single player around who could honestly GUARANTEE the required outcome.

After careful analysis, the only absolute 100% guarantee I could give is a net income of around $60 per hour.

To me this shows the key importance of a large bankroll for making a financially viable, realistic, and satisfying income from the game.

A satisfying income will obviously be different for everyone. Taking into account the precarious nature of life in the casino, with non-detection at the forefront of survival, I would be satisfied with a GUARANTEED net income of $200 per hour.

This means to keep it realistic, and drop all the bu!!sh!t and pipe dreams,  I would require a bankroll of 330k to absolutely guarantee an income of $200 per hour at the table.

[NoRegret]

After giving this some extensive thought, I admit I would not be able to "GUARANTEE" $1000 every day with a 100k bankroll.

I second this.  I did speak to the guy that offer me a deal to make 5K/day with 100K.  That is only 5%, which I do every day and many folds more on some days.  The deal breaker was sharing half the loss and most importantly having make a really large bet when necessary.  I have had to make 300 bets with 3K bankroll a few times someday.  I win most of them but have loss some.  Having gotten used to that, I can some what calmly grind myself back my bankroll knowing I have many 3K bankroll to back me up.   Looking at the 100K, that means having to take 10K shots.  I don't know if I can keep myself in control if I loss 2 of those shots.  Looks like I better not take the deal.

[alrelax]

Guarantees for income in business, ANYKIND of business is absolutely absurd.  Even 'non-gambling' business no income could be guaranteed.  Averages, and while having past bank loans for working capital, equipment loans, credit lines and short term loans, everyone of them were in someway or another secured with collateral, liens, or person guarantee that would reflect back on some type of collateral the banker could take, etc.  The only guarantee is the amount of money for re-payment and then if there is a problem, short term notes are issued or the payments deferred to the back end if the banker is easy to get along with.  The key to business is having your income more than your expenses with enough left over for salaries and unknown expenses. 

The same in gambling where the expenses is the losses and the unknowns are the horrible ugly outcomes of continued games.  There is no way to guarantee any income whatsoever, period. You are talking about an unknown and there is no-way to regulate that. 

I had two large jobs within a week invoicing out easily well over, a half million dollars, like sitting down at Bac and getting 40 hands with naturals, etc.  I might get 6 more large jobs this month and might not, no guarantees.  Things might go back to norm and receive my one or two jobs a week in the $30k to $80k range??? 

Bottom line, the only thing guaranteed to come repeatedly like clockwork is the bills.  The rest is dependent upon need, service, pricing, competitors, and other factors you cannot control or dictate, the same with different elements in gambling.

[Mars Rocks]

$500-$1,000 per day job, actually our goal is minimum $2k, I've managed to pull the $1k min per day last year for 5 weeks, I've done 6 days winning $10k per day ($67k in 6 days), until the cas' brought it to a halt via cheating, but that is another story.

I'd like to hear about how the casino cheated.  Can you make videos, they are so entertaining?
I really miss this guy since he stopped making videos...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfQBhbRiqnE

[WorldBaccaratKing]

I'd like to hear about how the casino cheated.  Can you make videos, they are so entertaining?
I really miss this guy since he stopped making videos...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfQBhbRiqnE

Who made that video?

[Mars Rocks]

Who made that video?

This guy magic612 used to run a tv blog apparently and show his beats in real time.  That video was a collection of magic612's videos put together by someone else.

But here is one from the magic man himself...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HYcQ7eYC-Eo

You can click on the youtube button and then follow a trail of his videos.

[Rolex-Watch]

I'd like to hear about how the casino cheated.

This is the problem with the internet, you read words on a forum form an opinion not having been there or witnessed anything leading up to why the MF's had to bring my run to a halt, you most probably are in the dark regarding the term "local".  Same as why their sister casino brought to an end to a very successful BJ players action, which is a fairly well known event by regulars in the casino involved.  The latter was not counting but was able to memorise 8 decks, so they sent in a stodge, an event took place, he ended up in court and banned for life.  I guess being up +$100k was too much to tolerate.

I could post what happened (but shall refrain), as it wouldn't tell the whole story, it is the events that took place building up to the fateful evening, the heat from security, the high level of senior management observing my play, staff writing on a clip board every bet I made, which baffles me, cos the eye in the sky surely could have provided the same info, but no, they had somebody standing a few feet away writing down every single bet.  Maybe they suspected I wasn't cashing out everything, which was true.  Also what happened when I requested the so called independent Govt regulator to step in.  What happened a few days later while I was on Holiday (they didn't know that I wouldn't be there) when IMO they took things too far and they ended up being spanked, because a shoe ran something like; 22P, single B, 17P, single B, 11P single B, with the shoe producing 11 Ties which was more than B results (nope I wasn't betting B only), when you skew the decks crazy things can happen, a venue where cards are not laid out prior to being brought into play, also non-squeeze pre auto-shuffler days.  It is fairly common knowledge underhand tactics maybe brought into play if they feel threatened, which I guess losing an average 11k per night for 6 days may have raised concerns regarding their end of year figure, who knows, I don't really care as it was a long time ago, but "best we stop it". 

What happened on the particular evening was IMO more than any freak occurrence, involved 6 tables for the many hours we were there.  They didn't know in advance where we would sit so IMO had to rig every table!!  On the night in question I changed tables twice, looking at the score boards, it wouldn't have mattered if we had changed tables 6 times, same outcome, which is disturbing, plus at the time, too wet behind the ears to smell a rat. 

I suppose improbable things happen every day in life, yet when you piece everything together, mostly the win amounts, the unwritten differentiation between  "local and visitor" (never knew that existed, until it was explained to me).

Recently another friend I was chatting to was telling me, he can beat 1000 "real" shoes at home, but when he steps into the casino to test his theroy, it loses ever time WTF.  Electronics (Angle eye auto shufflers) and gambling is IMO opinion a bad mix.  If they wanted any casino can know in advance how any shoe will play out before the cards have been drawn (refer recent video I posted in cheating thread).  Whether the cards are pre-arranged via EPROMS as more than one person has suggested, one of whom is an electronics whiz explained how it is possible (I'm open minded), also what advantage would it give them, not knowing how players will react to a shoe, which side they will bet and how much is debatable.  Suffice to say, it pays to keep your wits about you.   

[NoRegret]

This is the problem with the internet, you read words on a forum form an opinion not having been there or witnessed anything leading up to why the MF's had to bring my run to a halt, you most probably are in the dark regarding the term "local".  Same as why their sister casino brought to an end to a very successful BJ players action, which is a fairly well known event by regulars in the casino involved.  The latter was not counting but was able to memorise 8 decks, so they sent in a stodge, an event took place, he ended up in court and banned for life.  I guess being up +$100k was too much to tolerate.

I know exactly what you are talking about.  There are so many local casinos in my area.  I noticed the difference between the casinos.  I think that is the reason why a lot of professionals that play does not think logically when they play this game.  A few days ago, I saw two shoe with almost same pattern occurring at two different tables.  I don't think it could be such a coincident.  I look for variance and other things in a shoe or across several shoes.  My play with Apps matches one casino, which has more random shoes.  The cards can easily be arranged but it has to depend on the final cut.  Cut at the WRONG spot and shoe is random.  Cut the RIGHT spot and it goes the way it is arranged and you'll see the exact patterns except in a different section due to the cut.  I play at several of 5 or more casinos in my area.  I do very well for about 80% at one casino and struggle at another.  There are off course other factors that contribute to this, like not playing as planned due to losing patience waiting for hands to go.  At times I force myself to play with these patterns but I would only bet the minimum.  It really made me sick having to play following those patterns.   Out of thousands of shoes, you will definitely find some patterns here and there but to see them so often in the very same day is very suspicious. Of course no one will want to make these kinds of accusations.  I did noticed the difference between the days of hand shuffle and RECENT machine shuffle and preshuffle.  I added RECENT because it happen more RECENTLY.  The Apps on the internet and some devices that I've tested on were always random.

I didn't win nearly as much as you did but I have won quite a bit on occasions and I don't cash out my chips all at the same time.  I remember getting my ID check with any thing above 2K.  It seems most check for anything 1.2K or more now.  Not that I have anything to hide but I hate cashing out over a certain amount and have my ID checked all the time.  Recently, some casino even have photo recognition at the cashier to do this.  Look for a webcam the next time you cash out.  I purposely pissed off the cashier by moving around and covering my face pretending to cough or yawn when I cash out.  Every time I do that, it takes them longer because they tried to click that mouse to snap a photo.  When they asked me to take my photo for the first time, I made funny faces.  I knew for fact the software recognized me immediately because the lady cashing out my chip started laughing.  Someone else took that picture two days earlier.  I didn't know the reason why she laughed and didn't ask but she looked at me and told me that I too a funny picture.  I find it incredible how the computer pulled out my file with one eye close and tongue sticking out. 

[Mars Rocks]

This is the problem with the internet, you read words on a forum form an opinion not having been there or witnessed anything leading up to why the MF's had to bring my run to a halt, you most probably are in the dark regarding the term "local".  Same as why their sister casino brought to an end to a very successful BJ players action, which is a fairly well known event by regulars in the casino involved.  The latter was not counting but was able to memorise 8 decks, so they sent in a stodge, an event took place, he ended up in court and banned for life.  I guess being up +$100k was too much to tolerate.

A few points...
1.  Nothing to worry about...find another casino, there's plenty about and with $100k you can now afford to fly somewhere else.
2.  I've never heard of a court banning someone from the casino for life but again, simply move shop.

What happened a few days later while I was on Holiday (they didn't know that I wouldn't be there) when IMO they took things too far and they ended up being spanked, because a shoe ran something like; 22P, single B, 17P, single B, 11P single B, with the shoe producing 11 Ties which was more than B results (nope I wasn't betting B only), when you skew the decks crazy things can happen, a venue where cards are not laid out prior to being brought into play, also non-squeeze pre auto-shuffler days.  It is fairly common knowledge underhand tactics maybe brought into play if they feel threatened, which I guess losing an average 11k per night for 6 days may have raised concerns regarding their end of year figure, who knows, I don't really care as it was a long time ago, but "best we stop it". 

What happened on the particular evening was IMO more than any freak occurrence, involved 6 tables for the many ours we were there.  They didn't know in advance where we would sit so IMO had to rig every table!!  On the night in question I changed tables twice, looking at the score boards, it wouldn't have mattered if we had changed tables 6 times, same outcome, which is disturbing, plus at the time, too wet behind the ears to smell a rat. 

That was pretty risky for the casino to set up the shoe to produce all those player runs.  If you smelled a rat you could have made 10 times your original $100k.  I say they deserve the money for taking a big risk to clean you out!

Recently another friend I was chatting to was telling me, he can beat 1000 "real" shoes at home, but when he steps into the casino to test his theroy, it loses ever time WTF.  Electronics (Angle eye auto shufflers) and gambling is IMO opinion a bad mix.  If they wanted any casino can know in advance how any shoe will play out before the cards have been drawn (refer recent video I posted in cheating thread).  Whether the cards are pre-arranged via EPROMS as more than one person has suggested, one of whom is an electronics whiz explained how it is possible (I'm open minded), also what advantage would it give them, not knowing how players will react to a shoe, which side they will bet and how much is debatable. 

Your friend also needs to surprise the casino and change his system when he plays and cash in.  Just one shoe should net $10k don't you think?

[NoRegret]

A few points...
1.  Nothing to worry about...find another casino, there's plenty about and with $100k you can now afford to fly somewhere else.
2.  I've never heard of a court banning someone from the casino for life but again, simply move shop.

To start off, I'm not on anyone's side or anything but for discussion purposes only.   I do move around to different casinos as I mention in previous post even before you posted.  Most casinos COULD be doing the same or maybe the shuffle machine or preshuffled company.  I only notice one casino that is different.

Unless the person is cheating, I've never heard of this either.  I have on many occasion witness and have it happen to me, where casino asked me to leave if you refuse to sign a document stating had a transaction over a amount.  In the US, it's usually 10K but for some casino, it's 8K.  Off course you can always return 24hrs later to play.  That signature is good for at least one year or a few years.  I was asked to resign again a few years later.  Not sure if it's by certain time period or the fact I went to another casino for over a year before returning.

That was pretty risky for the casino to set up the shoe to produce all those player runs.  If you smelled a rat you could have made 10 times your original $100k.  I say they deserve the money for taking a big risk to clean you out!

I saw this occrring many years ago during hand shuffle and I've seen this happen on Apps, Online games and simulations so I HONESTLY believe this can happen.  Although very rare to come across this.  Two 17 player streaks and 26 Banker streaks (on different shoes)  followed by another pretty long streak.

Your friend also needs to surprise the casino and change his system when he plays and cash in.  Just one shoe should net $10k don't you think?

Again, mention in post before you brought this up and also for discussion purposes. I did try to cash in but didn't do it aggressively as I didn't believe it can happen.  I am referring to reoccurring patterns.  I'm not referring to those BBPBBPBBPBBP type of patterns.  Here's one example from the other day that I could remember.  Like I mention, two shoes from two different table.  BBTBBPPBBPPBBPTBBPPBBPPBBPTBBBPPBP  They both happen to happen at the beginning too.