+ Register

[Sputnik]

I have been taking a closer look at the 24 Karat baccarat method.
It is based upon poor knowledge.

You aim to see what is the underrepresented and overrepresented events and you aim to catch correction.

The basic is that you have as many singles as you have series.
So when you cut the random flow into singles contra series or series contra singles you have a 50/50 situation, just like banker and player.

So after certain amount of events you see what is the overrepresented and underrepresented events.
If series are overrepresented you aim to play singles and the other way around.

But this method is not based upon math and probability.
Because you only need to be ahead with 2 events and that is only around 0,44 STD.
Is not strenght behind that.

The bell curve indicate that you need around 3.0 STD to see significant change of correction.
I have post simulation software for every one to confirm that with there own statistics at other topic at beginner section.

I can give you one example that would improve the 24 karat method.
Take 14 series and 2 singles, then you have 3.0 STD.
But lets say you have 7 series present, then you know when the singles will show that they has to be more then 2, if not then you will have a independent window of 3.0 STD or more.
That way you would play for correction based upon math and probability.

It is just one example to illustrate the methodologoy, i am not saying that work or is better then any other selection.
But i am saying it is based upon math and probability.

With this example i hope more members will understand why the 24 baccarat method is based upon a big flaw.

I qoute this from wiki ...

"Regression toward the mean simply says that, following an extreme random event, the next random event is likely to be less extreme. In no sense does the future event "compensate for" or "even out" the previous event, though this is assumed in the gambler's fallacy (and variant law of averages). Similarly, the law of large numbers states that in the long term, the average will tend towards the expected value, but makes no statement about individual trials. For example, following a run of 10 heads on a flip of a fair coin (a rare, extreme event), regression to the mean states that the next run of heads will likely be less than 10, while the law of large numbers states that in the long term, this event will likely average out, and the average fraction of heads will tend to 1/2. By contrast, the gambler's fallacy incorrectly assumes that the coin is now "due" for a run of tails, to balance out."

Cheers

Pst ...
It is easy to check the truth.
Every event is independent, so we can pick any random flow with events and match them with future events.
Lets say 14 vs 2 is 3.0 STD ,,, that is a total of 16 event window.
Now you can pick any 8 random results and match them with 8 future random events.
Then you can check same and oppisite and if the result is less or more then 14 vs 2 for each window.
Now you naked the random flow telling you the truth about regression towards the mean.

[Sputnik]

The thing with the 24 karat baccarat method is that he claim it is a "tendency play" ...
That is wrong.

With my example and with 24 karat method you just hope for correction - in fact chasing for the correction to happen - just like any other bet selection.
For example you see three bankers and you play player for three times.

This is because you isolate the random flow into waves with different strenght.
So you might have 2.5 STD window and attack it will not become 3.0 window.

All this has nothing to do with "tendency play" ...

Now lest say i have 14 singles and 2 series - 3.0 STD.
Then for the imbalance stop growing you have to get something else then singles.
Lets say you get one serie and one single and one serie to show, then i know the STD stop growing stronger and can see that as indication for correction or that the STD will become weaker, that is tendency play.
Other way would be two series to show, then the STD got weaker and i can see that as indication that the correction starting to show, that is also a tendency.
When using a tendency play you build up a march to follow to capture correction after strong imbalance.
Tendency play is based upon present change and not chasing for events to come.

So tendency play is about indications of the oppisite to happen and you ride does indications.
They come as short corrections and medium corrections and large corrections.

Just wanted to clarify this as 24 karat baccarat method mention "tendency play" that is all wrong and not based upon math and probability.

[Sputnik]

Here you can read about the results from 24 karat baccarat method - it beat zumma ...

https://imspirit.wordpress.com/2010/10/29/baccarat-simulation-series-14-results/