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[alrelax]

1)  Magic # for a streak to start, in your experience/opinions and why?  I recently posted two shoes in my 'Equalling Out' thread.  Both good examples with my thoughts regarding the beginning of a streak.  Both pictures posted below as well.  (NOTE:  1-2-3s common, every shoe.  4-5s very common, most shoes.  6s are common, sometimes a shoe without, but plenty are common as well.  7s a bit rarer and IMO begin a streak).

2)  Sitting down and losing from jump street.  Lose 5-6-7 are more in a row.  Then win 1 or 2.  Then start losing again.  What happens to your mind frame and beliefs?  Do you come out of it and start wining?  If you start losing like this, is that pretty much doom for your session through your experiences?  As we all know, if you don't play, you can't win.  But how does, hard negative entrance to the session affect you and your chances?

3)  Watching others looking for mathematical and/statistical absolution to be verified by repetitive appearances before wagering on it.  Then when they do, maybe a win or two comes forth, but whatever it was-fizzles out and the losses mount.  See it all the time, whether through their own admissions and verbal explanations or just their physical actions. 

[Bally6354]

Good questions Al,

 I will try and do one at a time.

1) A lot of the old timers like Renzoni, Lyle Stuart etc.. seem to think 3 of a kind is the start of a streak and when you see 3 in a row, you should go with it and if you were betting the opposite and you don't want to switch over, then stop betting! So fair enough, I can see the thinking and logic behind that.

A question might be how do we interpret streaks. Does a streak have to be something that wins every hand until it stops or can we have a loss in between because that way, you can generate some pretty lengthy winning sequences. One of the shoes you posted the other day went as follows from half way through the shoe...

BBBB
PPP
BBBBBBBBBBBBBB
PPPP
BB
PPPPPPP

That's some heavy duty FTL action going on there. I can jump on these quickly (a couple of hands/spins) as long as I see it's not in some of kind of BBPPBBPP pattern.

Regarding the breakdown of a shoe, I was reading the PowerBaccarat 2 book again last night and he had the avaerages for a shoe although we have to be careful how we use this I suppose because anything can and will happen in the short term.

''The outcomes in the decisions of a typical shoe will likely contain:

21 occurrences of single wins
10 occurrences of double wins
5-6 occurrences of 3 wins in a row
3 occurrences of 4 wins in a row
1 consecutive win streak of 5,6,7,8 or 9''

The reason I mention how do we interpret streaks is because I like to be flexible in my approach.
Let's say I wait for 3 in a row and there are 5-6 occurrences and only 3 of them turn into 4 like the averages above, then I am not going to win anything, not to mention you can be waiting a long time for streaks to appear. I love to take advantage of them when they appear but I don't rely on them because large portions of the shoe can be a bag of trash and how anyone handles them is more of a key aspect IMO.

[Bally6354]

2) It's an old cliche but plan your play and play your plan because what else can you do if the gambling gods decide to point their wrath at you for the session.

We all know a session like this is going to come along sooner or later and I suppose we then get to decide whether we want to lose a little or a lot. Im my 20's it was normally lose a lot 
In my 30's I learnt to take a break for a couple of days because the worse thing you can do is go back
 chasing losses if you are in the wrong frame of mind. When focussed and refreshed after a short break, I nearly always recovered the loss.

Now I do try and play to my plan and I am a bit more philosophical about a loss. If you did everything within your power, well, you better just accept it. Cheer yourself up by saying something along the lines of the operation was a success, but the patient died!

To more directly answer your question Al, one thing I have noticed lately is that I tend to take time to warm up in a shoe, I can't really explain that, but many times I am down a handful of units throughout maybe the first 10-15 decisions and then I tend to pick up during hands 20 through to about 60 and that's also when I normally quit a shoe unless I am on a streak and then obviously I am not quitting during that. So a average start isn't a sign of a bad shoe for me, I think it's just me feeling my way and starting to form my thoughts on how the shoe is going. Asym made a good point the other day (I think it was somewhere else) saying that you don't have to bet every hand, so obvious and yet so true. It's ok just to dip your toe in the water for a few bets and see if it's safe to carry on or not. It's rare for me to keep coming up empty handed in these attempts and I will usually latch on to something that will get me moving forward in the shoe.

[Bally6354]

3) A quick one here and  I was thinking about this one the other night. There are so many fantastic shoes that can come your way, that it would be criminal not to be able take advantage of them when the opportunity presents itself. So as a player, you have to accept that treading water or getting behind a few units isn't the time to get gung ho about it, you will likely regret, if not this time, then the next for sure. Admittedly, it can be annoying and frustrating if you are patient and every time you jump in, you lose but someone on these forums once said to pay the price of time and not your bankroll.

cheers

[alrelax]

Bally in your first response, "A question might be how do we interpret streaks. Does a streak have to be something that wins every hand until it stops or can we have a loss in between because that way, you can generate some pretty lengthy winning sequences."

And, "The outcomes in the decisions of a typical shoe will likely contain:.............."

Those stats you have will work at times and probably  near equally, at times be totally off.  However, no matter what the likelihood of matching those up to shoes being played, the order of occurrences would still be that almighty classic, $64,000.00 Question, so to speak. 

Betting on a forthcoming hand, winning and betting again to continue flat betting, if lose you lost your win.  If won, you won two times so far. If you parlay and win, great. If you lost, you lost the winning and more. It's the common 'Catch 22', and let's say the point of jumping off the cliff or staying on the cliff.

However, IMO as I've tried to express and show many times, it is the one that continues, that is the important one. And if you pounce on it and it continues, just pull down each and every win to capitalize on it rather nicely and a heck of a lot more than flat betting, which will only get the average player ground down with the continued attempts to do the same again.

NOTE:  The one that 'continues'. I am referring to say the 4th or the 5th Banker in the above picture with 14 Bankers IAR and 3 ties. Or the 4th Banker in the one with the 10 IAR Bankers and 2 ties. For example.

SECOND NOTE:  I am also referring to 'continuing' for chops-doubles-triples-1s 2s 3s, etc., etc.  Not only streaks/runs. 

THIRD NOTE:  Do not limit yourself to having, to be correct continuously on one event to occur in order to win wagers or to find something that will 'continue'.

[AsymBacGuy]

Third note is great!!

as.

[AsymBacGuy]

Btw welcome back Bally, you are One of the few acute minds on gambling forums.

as.

[alrelax]

Btw welcome back Bally, you are One of the few acute minds on gambling forums.

as.

Ditto. And....Absolutely.

[KungFuBac]

Great thread/thx for all the comments.

alrelax above at beginning of thread:

"...1)  Magic # for a streak to start, in your experience/opinions and why?  ...
.... 
(NOTE:  1-2-3s common, every shoe.  4-5s very common, most shoes.  6s are common, sometimes a shoe without, but plenty are common as well.  7s a bit rarer and IMO begin a streak)...."

If we are talking about a side streak (P or B) in a row(IAR) then I like to view the 2nd in the series as the beginning. In part due to every streak has to start at 1, and the very next outcome determines if that specific streak begins as "same side" or "Opposite" or "other". I know that's an overly simplistic view.

"..NOTE:  1-2-3s common, every shoe.  4-5s very common, most shoes.  6s are common, sometimes a shoe without, but plenty are common as well.  7s a bit rarer and IMO begin a streak)...."..."[/color]

The way I conceptualize the (IAR) streaks is each layer or row is like a filter that has different sizes pores that sifts the outcomes while allowing certain numbers of outcomes to drop through each level.
Visualize the above event in a somewhat inverse situation and that we are sluicing gold nuggets and we have 83 chunks in our bucket and start pouring over that first screen (filter or row).

That first screen gauge width is designed to catch or trap only the 1oz gold nuggets (So 1oz nuggets are trapped in screen number 1(row #1) because ALL nuggets of all sizes were available to be caught initially. For example, the 1oz, 1/2oz, 1/4oz, 1/8oz,..etc size nuggets,..etc. So, we will catch (trap) only the largest nuggets (all 1oz nuggets) in the top filter or screen #1.

So, let's say we caught 40 1oz nuggets in the top screen. Ok we now only have 43 chunks remaining (83-40).

But at this perfect-world gold mine --casino we notice some chunks of rock (11) are in our bucket, so we just cast them aside here at the beginning instead of having these chunks of rock evenly dispersed at several filter levels, leaving us with only 32 actual gold nuggets (83-40-11).

So now the remaining 32 gold nuggets fall to the next (2nd) filter screen and 18 1/2oz nuggets get caught in filter #2. We now only have 14 gold nuggets (83-40-11-18) with a chance to continue dropping through each of the remaining filters below filters 1 and 2..

So these 14 remaining and smaller/smaller gold nuggets are filtered through the lower filter levels (3rd,4th,5th,...etc filters or rows).

So, by the time we inspect the 4th,5th, and 6th filters they may have only one or two nuggets. Thus, all the nuggets caught or trapped in filters 1,2,3,4,5 have (0) potential for continuance. That one remaining nugget that has navigated through all above filters is the lone soldier that must try to make it to filter 14(as in the above tote board pic with a 14B run). So, there can be 0 errors and this sole nugget or soldier must receive a perfect trip (several criteria must not only line up perfectly but must line up perfectly again and again).

Now IMO what often distorts the overall statistics is that one mighty soldier that on one perfect day made it to that prestigious 14th filter, will now be described as not only the 14thIAR champion but also get credit as going 1iar, 2iar,...6iar, 7iar, 8iar, 9iar,..., 14th in a row.

Although I am thrilled when I hear of a bac comrade tagging a 14iar win streak on a same-side wager. However, I have little regret if I only picked up 3-4 wins between the 1-7 levels, set my pressed-up wager aside for future entry, and finished said 14iar streak with a 1.0 base unit W from say level 6or7--14th.
WHY?
In approximately 20 years of bac play, the last four years of full time play @ approx 1800 hands per week, I have only witnessed one streak at my table >14 on B,P, or Opp. It was a 16iar Opp.

I frequently ask dealers:

A) what is the longest streak you have ever dealt?

B) What is the most weird or atypical shoe you have ever dealt?

On A) Typically the response will be 11, 12 or 13.

On B), I had a dealer tell me they once dealt a B 10iar streak that had 7 ties. So 17 consecutive NOT-P hands with 10 B and 7 ties intertwined.



Continued Success to All,

[alrelax]

KungFuBac,

You said, " In approximately 20 years of bac play, the last four years of full time play @ approx 1800 hands per week, I have only witnessed one streak at my table >14 on B,P, or Opp. It was a 16iar Opp."

Of course not frequently, but not classified as rare either, I have seen plenty of 10-16 IAR/streaks of all types, and less then plenty; 17-Mid 20's IAR repetitive streaks.

Here are a couple more pictures I found easily on my phone stored. 

[KungFuBac]

Good comments. Our discussion of streaks reminds me of what my Greeatt Uncle Confucius once told me:

"Grasshopper, the young gambler much like the inexperienced prospector, often digs for nuggets under the wrong rocks."

[alrelax]

I would not play out/think every 'few in a row' to continue into a classical streak.  However we all wager differently and with different goals.

Personally, I pounce at times.  I love streaks whether IAR or chops or doubles or even 1-2-3s, etc. 

As far as the IAR, 'plenty' to me means it happens with some frequency much greater than 'rare'.  'Rare' to me, means every so often, like once or so every couple of months.

Hard to put quantity of, how many played shoe average, on any of this (I or most any other would encounter), to define when these types of streak have or will come along, etc. IMO.

[KungFuBac]

Good comments. Our discussion of streaks reminds me of what my Greeatt Uncle Confucius once told me:

"Grasshopper, the young gambler much like the inexperienced prospector, often digs for nuggets under the wrong rocks."