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40 Session 12-Day Win Streak Ends/Losing Streak Begins

Started by KungFuBac, July 08, 2024, 08:57:09 PM

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KungFuBac

40 Session 12-Day Win Streak Ends/Losing Streak Begins

     June was a good month. A couple weeks ago a long winning streak ended. A few  thoughts below on streaks(W and L).

I enjoyed a 40-session win streak across 12 consecutive days. I played 11 of the 12 days. I typically play approx. 5.5 days per week, 5-7 shoes per day,...etc. So I wasn't playing more because I was on a nice winning streak. I just typically don't go that many days without busting a buyin. Thirty-Two Bac sessions (<=1-3 shoes per session typically), included six Roulette sessions, and two stuff sessions*. No really big wins really but seemed to get most of the reasonably-sized wins early or with minimal draw downs.

Roulette/Craps Sessions:

The very short six roulette and two craps sessions(If you can call them sessions) are included in the aforementioned "40 sessions."
My Roulette sessions (and craps) were often short as I terminated as soon as I had an uptick for a decent net+ relative to my highest and current winning wager(s).

I also wagered smaller and different in the few roulette/craps intertwined within the Bac sessions. Sessions were much shorter vs Bac. Typically I only play roulette to use my free play or because roulette tables often open earlier in the day vs Bac. So I will play a couple hours waiting on Bac tables or for seats to open,...etc.
Roulette-- I typically wager up to a selected 11 single numbers or one dozen selectively chosen.

My main roulette approach is typically a flat bet initially and then if needed do a  verrryyyslooooww negpro. I've done very well the past two years that I have played Roulette. Though I don't play at a high $ so could easily recover should I ever hit a rough spot.
Craps is usually just a line bet(Dc, Dp or Pass lines only and only a single wager), meaning no hedges et al wagers . Craps is usually a full press or parlay+ on first couple wins for that wager.
     I've only played Roulette seriously in past couple years so certainly not an expert and do not play every day for my living like I do Bac. Often I just play my free play or to pick up a few units while waiting on Bac tables to open.
Most of my Roulet approach and betting regime are not totally self-designed. Most of my approach has come from reading and tweaking a little from intel on Vics rouletteIdeas forum and mostly perusing some of the main authors on his site.  Vic, KimoLi, albalaha, et al authors over there and a few others that I can't recall right now. I perceive most have many more years of Roulet experience than myself. Gizmo on this site seemed to have some good thoughts too that I have found useful.

     *To preface re: two craps session:

The two craps sessions were only three line wagers and on another day only two line wagers. So not really sessions but saying 40-Session win streak vs a headline of 38-Session win streak sounds much stealthier . Smiley face. :)

Craps is usually just a line bet(Dc, Dp or Pass lines only and only a single wager), meaning no hedges et al wagers . Craps is usually a full press or parlay+ on first couple wins for that wager and then onto an exponential pospro til it drops.

     One of the craps sessions I was simply meeting a bac comrade at a casino we often carpool from as he was giving me his players card to use at a casino he couldn't make that day (If he didn't use his free play that day he would lose it) . He is a bigtime poker player that also plays a lot of Bac.
However, in the past couple of years he has been playing some Craps line bets with excellent results. So, I see him as I enter the casino and had just picked up some chips at the cashiers  cage. He motions /waves me over to craps table as he had already notified me he wanted to hand off his players card.

So I watched a couple mins and decided to simply wager $120 on the same bet as his wager ( Pass line) as he is a very skilled casino investor and not there to just gamble. I won that first wager and then parlayed a couple mins later on the DC ($240 win). I then wagered $250 with the intention of entering into an exponential press regime thereafter.  However, after winning my $250 wager he was then called to the poker room on the intercom and since he was departing I also decided to end my craps session (in about 5-10mins). Sometimes when favor occurs fast(&first) I take the money and run/count my blessings.

The other Craps session in this 40-Sess streak was a couple days later at a different cas. I had a $100 free play** that could be played at a table game. The Bac tables were not open yet/didn't want to get roulette chips. So, I walked up to a craps table /watched for a few mins. I wagered on the DP, and ($100 win). So, I watched another couple mins and then wagered $200 on a Dc, and another(W). Quick +400, See ya (about 7-10 mins). Lol. That was fun. I then headed to the Bac pit.

     **This particular cas (and this  free play) the player gets the winning free play wager back on a W. Most of    my casinos take the winning free play voucher on a W, and only allow free play to be used on slots (a few of my  cas will allow use on ETG) such as Roulette Electronic Table Games). I generally lose over half of my free play when required to play in slots. On ETG machines I do a little better. Probably my best return on a free play was that I once converted a $50 free play into a $787 win. Many times my free play gets converted to -0- .

IMO the cas can discern on slots that it is a free play and purposefully make it lose at higher rate or at a certain hold%. At least for me, lol.  Obviously, I have no proof of that hypothesis.

Re: Bac Sessions/ Winning Streak.

My biggest single session win was 31 units on an ~~ 32 unit buy in. My largest drawdown (prior to bust) was ~~23units prior to recovery. Most winning sessions were small (6-10) range. I more often than not drew down prior to getting the W. I always strive to win my buyin but when Net+ and  the pressed-up wagers lose I simply restart at base-unit level, and try to get another one rolling(i.e., compounding).

Streaks are interesting/somewhat of a phenomenon  to me.

 Immediately after (40-Sess streak ended) upon busting my buy in I busted another buy in just two days later. The day between the two busts and the following 3-4 days after that second bust  I didn't bust any additional  buy ins but had to battle each day for a net+ it seemed. Sometimes a winning session would take at least >=two shoes for the victory...etc.
I was recently discussing with a Bac mentor how wins/loses tend to clump together. It's my belief we shouldn't worry too much about L streaks as they will soon end. Just limit them by not rebuying into the same losing shoe.

The same with W streaks consisting of multiple shoes, sessions, or days of continuous winning. They too seem to be short lived/ end for no apparent reason (other than the laws of probability flexing their muscles).

On the above W/L streaks' clumping it seemed I was mostly betting the same with very similar triggers, presses,  and limits. On the Win streak it seemed I was winning the close calls. The opposite on the L streak.

A session for me can be any where from <1 full shoe up to maybe 3 shoes and usually terminates when:

 A) I get a reasonable size win(>= 6-10units) after an uptick and the main winning pressed-up bet lost: and or

B) All my pressed-up wagers are decisioned, or Im Net + greater than the highest wager/I will carry it forward to next session or day.

C) I bust my buy in.

Reminder: I lost several shoes during this 40-Session streak (& sometimes drew down. One session I was down ~~70% of buy in and recovered to a 6U win). When I draw down first, I keep battling until recovery (In that shoe or next shoe or two) or bust.  If in a multi-shoe session and I draw down let's say (from 4K buy in to say 1800 remaining). I don't pad my buyin back up to 4k for next shoe. I don't change the size of base unit. I keep playing until that original buy in reaches -0- or I get positive again. I still press with the same pospro.

If I get an uptick first, I don't stop the session until at least >=6 or so units W.  I mostly do only a pos progression. Only very rarely I may terminate a win with only minimal net+(say 2-4U) . For example, if I have really had to battle in that session, finally ahead, shoe is near the end, and I need to get on road after 8-10hours of play...etc.

However, it is my belief we should never leave a winning trend (A certain spot, a shoe, or a days long W streak) as we never know how long they will last. I'm not suggesting I keep the pressed-up wager out there until the end of that current spots' winning streak. I will often set it aside for later reentry and finish the current spots' streak with a wager near the size of my base unit or ~~Mean wager size for that current run,...etc.  We must always plan ahead for what our next move is when that streak ends.


As Confucius once told me:" Grasshopper, the trend must end"




Thanks for reading,

"There are many large numbers smaller than one."

alrelax

Your last sentence, "We must always plan ahead for what our next move is when that streak ends."

I have written countless times, that I will revert back to my previous base unit after any win streak, win section, heavy win clump, etc., falls off.

But definitely 100% when I leave a table after a win session and return, it is back to previous starting regular unit and pos-pro, etc. 

Has to be.  It is in your best interest by far.
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Played well over 36,951 shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

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