There are literally countless examples that support each of our views, at least for those that really get into the message boards, IMO.
However, here are facts of baccarat and facts that I have experienced countless times repeatedly in fact, and then again, sporadically—they all take vacation. Knowing the difference is simply the separation of an experienced baccarat player in reality as compared to a baccarat player that sees baccarat as his easy way to fortunes and being a professional and elite gambler.
Here is my opening example of ‘reality’ which applies to most everything we do, maybe not reading a text book, participating in a school class and paying attention to the teacher---with the grade you are given at the end, but most certainly for the ‘application’ of most everything that will produce uncontrollable results, whether gambling or starting a business or engaging in a sport.
Two golf players out on the golf course. Both of equal experience and equal knowledge of the game. Say a tough and professional 36-hole golf course. One will win and one will lose. Whether it was their breakfast, their shoes, their clubs, traffic encountered on the way there for each one, an intense fight with a spouse just prior to leaving their home, a loved one passing away in the past few days that just happened to play the same course with one of them, the last shot the other felt cheated upon, the score at a certain point, politics or something on one of their minds and absent on the other ones mind. Whatever it might really be that causes one to excel and the other to fail slightly, will get more intense as each hole goes by. Their mental game allows such to occur, the mental aspect of each has impact on each one’s game no matter if you or the player, wishes to admit that reality.
In fact, my position is that intangibles, ‘factors outside of play’, such as money management, profit strategies, psychological and emotional status, one’s vision as to what he is doing in the way he applies such and numerous other intangibles, have more to do with each of our games than anything else does.
Here are 6 questions that come to mind real quickly. Without trying to make this into a manuscript, here they are:
1) Do you talk about patterns that you bet with or against in the known common way, for example—you see 3 Bankers and you follow or bet against for whatever reasoning you believe is correct. Is that the way you play baccarat? Or basing you bet selection on a series of formations that are found in the ‘Big Road’, ‘Bead Plate’ or the ‘Derived Road’?
If so, you need to seriously look at the way you wager and realize you will lose everything the highest majority of the times you gamble. Don’t look at why you won and attempt the repeat, look at why you lost, those losing wagers will tell you far more than the opposite. Number one problem being, people do not want to admit or realize they were tricked, conned, at fault or simply wrong. They thrive to be correct and not making mistakes, therefore they blame others or something else and they totally ignore and never realize why they lost or what actually happened, with the correct way to use the negativity and ugliness that they inflicted upon themselves.
2) Do you talk about different sequences that you can define as different states of the random streams of Banker and Player bets? And most likely, your conclusions are justified in your mind by the widespread myth baccarat is a 50/50 game.
If you do, you fell prey to the numerous ‘surface authors and drama message board people’ that repeatedly drum into people’s minds that everything will equal out in baccarat and there is no advantages to the game except, to continually wager with one thing and eventually you will realize a profit, although a small one, that you can actually profit off of. What they all leave out is the bank roll as well as the constant emotional, psychological and vision that each person has that effects each different and most cannot control or even have knowledge over their sub-conscious that will ultimately influence their wagering no matter what anyone says, does or proves otherwise.
3) Do you use Banker and Player, as they come without playing them separately with the belief that either side averages one, two or three repeats with scheduling as reduced down from millions of shoes and hundreds of millions of hands to show you how easy baccarat really is? Such as following an instruction manual or the class put on by some expert and baccarat doctor genius that made claims to earning multi millions and is now on to assisting others?
If you do, you fell prey to hype, simple salesmanship and fallacy. You pictured yourself winning all kinds of money with little risk and great rewards by a master of nonsense. Because independent shoes are random, no guarantee or certainty to produce anything. Some will be Banker or Player dominant by far. Others will be completely weak and alternating everything will prevail and dominant. Yet, other shoes will be producing strong and clear patterns of the easiest and best presentments to make a player a hundred times his buy-in with side wagers of high pay out repeatedly winning, or simply by following anything he sees happening. And the kicker is, almost every single player will give back all those winnings with rapid speed because his desire and sub-conscious has convinced his mind that if he only continues to wager the way he was, he will win even greater amounts of money. (Casino personnel has a phase to describe what that is. It is called, ‘Player will always give it back because he is reinforced with continuation, that will not continue’).
4) Do you only talk about and believe in ‘Follow the Last’ (FTL) Decision, or Follow the Previous to Last Winning Decision? Or anything of the likes? Believing that winning 2 out of the 3 possibilities will lead you in the correct direction each time? So many do and so many win a few, lose a few, get even with a repetitious type of win, lose, push wagering. All small wins will only be fuel that will start the mind in a dangerous decision making agenda. All small losses will actually do the same thing because the person wants to recoup his losses. When there is actually a series of pushing the buy-in back and forth and the person being even, he will ultimately feel a waste of time and he risked his capital for nothing. Also, extremely dangerous to fueling his desire and need to actually win.
Once the person engages in the above, he becomes hardened to the system and false belief will usually set in, that he will eventually make a good profit. It is a grind and he has read so much and listened to so many claiming hundreds and thousands of dollars in most all sessions, using the grind. Simply not true. Some sessions win a small amount, some sessions lose a small amount, yet other sessions will equal out. The person will deviate from the scheduling and win or lose additional wagers that will only frustrate him greater because his blame will begin the emotional torture upon himself and he will seek out greater and greater adherence to that system or deviation from it, either way he is only dooming himself.
5) Or are you the other kind of player, that will recognize the stronger events in a shoe and wager with those based on the decision making a profit is easy? Do you see something happening and convince yourself it will continue? Or do you come to the table each time with pre-set wagering protocols that convince yourself you will be on the correct side or use the correct positive, or a negative progression to either get even or make a sizable win?
The second highest majority amount of people do just that. And they convince themselves of the fact over and over with virtually every session because they ‘see’ what is happening and they believe what they see. That is, until the presentments change, which they will. Even if they do win, they continue with the same thing that allowed them to be on the correct side to use the correct progression. Reason being, they slip from the conscious that would allow them to be in reality and safely keep most wins and control most losses, to the sub-conscious and allow their psychological and emotional end to control themselves. (Kind of like the example with the two gold players, one winning because of applying himself and the other losing because he allowed himself to fail).
6) Do you, with any kind of bet selection method try to explore the shoes bias sequence with tiny bias waves, middle sized bias waves, larger sized bias waves with your bet selection or sequencing methods? (IMO, there is most certainly a way to do just those things. However, be extremely careful of that psych and emotional aspect when such is occurring). Or do you continue with wagering on what has won for yourself and avoiding what has lost as well? Or, at least thinking you are doing just that?
Another section of countless players will find themselves within that group as well. What they are actually doing is inflicting false-positive reinforcement upon themselves, psychology 101. They are engaging in and subjecting themselves to every reason the casino has always allowed note taking, score cards, providing pens, even installing scoreboards at the cost of money to the casino. It is the number one thing the casino loves to portray, ‘Hey baccarat is beatable and here-we will help you’.
Reality, clear vision, complete emotional consciousness, applying your previous experience and understanding there is no mathematical or statistical results that can be deduced down to the 1 or 3 or 6 shoes you will gamble at each time allowing you to win a consistent 10 or 20 units or hands, etc.
In other words, removing yourself from your average mind-set and placing yourself outside of your body when you are at the baccarat table playing for real money.
Your mental game allows such winnings and losses to occur, the mental aspect of each has impact on each one’s game no matter if you or anyone else, wishes to admit the reality of such.