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[alrelax]

1-3-2-6 applied selectively and even with interruption (waiting/not consecutive hands of course) will get you a possible 12 units plus on the 4th wager, with a safety net of replenishing your bankroll with the original 2 unit risked on the second wager.  Wager's 3 and 4 are original bankroll risk-free. 

This becomes a reality a heck of a lot greater times than 11 and 12 parlay methods, IMO in baccarat.

[gr8player]

1-3-2-6......

Better a 1-3-2-4....in that way, you still retain some profit even if you lose that last (and highest) bet.

[alrelax]

Better a 1-3-2-4....in that way, you still retain some profit even if you lose that last (and highest) bet.

I do the 1-3-2-4 at times, especially when really rough and doing the unexpected every hand if I am pressed for time and still want to play.  I try for the more aggressive 12 unit win with the 4th wager--6 units most of the time. Frequently if I can control myself with the length of time played, I can walk with 1 or 2 successful 1-3-2-6's or a 1-3-2-4 combined.  I don't do it when I go to Vegas but at my local places I can. 

[TheLaw]

I guess, like Aces21, I'm going to have to talk to myself since nobody wants to discuss the prog soxfan has put forth with any kind of objectivity.

1-1-1-1-2-3-4-6-8-11-15-20.  12 step.  Winning 2 IAR isn't all that hard but can be devastating if you can't reach 90%.  But one could work up to giving it a go with a much smaller bankroll by using MM and a stutter within the progression to extend it.  Of course by reducing the escalation we will also reduce our profit potential but a win is a win.

I think it was The Law who was chagrined over the fact that soxfan did not lead him to a winning bet selection.  Well, IMO, there is none.  But any one you choose will hit 85%.  I can't prove it.  That's a guess.  Maybe some of you math guys will give it a go.  Just use some follow the shoe placement.  I hope you guys can figure something like that out by now.  Use NOR or Pitboss, whatever.

So the first thing you do, Law, is learn to recognize the nemesis.  Should be pretty easy.  That's when you got to switch to and stop, guess, another placement.  In the meantime you use the stutter move to cut back the progression when a) you don't want to risk too many of the units you already won or b) you are really in trouble and you need to expand the prog from 12 to 13 or even 14 steps.  Some of this MM will just bring you back to even or just cut your losses to a recoverable level.  You'll have to decide when and where to do that.  I'm not going to spoon feed you but here's an example.

You lose 11112 and are now down 6 units.  So you flat bet the 2 once, twice, whatever and then go into the 3-4-6 etc.  Once you get your back to back win you re-start.  And you don't necessarily need a back to back.  Maybe you win the 6 unit and just restart at 2 units.  Hit the 6-2 then restart.  You might be down a few units doing this but back to back should ocurr often enough to start grinding out some decent wins. 

There should be plenty of shoes where you will just out and out win without risking a whole lot.  Patience, discipline, build your bank.  After all this IS GAMBLING - HELLO?

j

......not sure why my name is mentioned here........no idea who "Soxfan" is.......thought this thread was about Seth and his targetbettingblog.

I've read through his blog line by line, and applied the method exactly as he suggests...........and it still fails.

[AsymBacGuy]

The best way to assess progressions value starts here:

https://imspirit.wordpress.com/tag/bet-selection/

Then we should try to find some hints to disprove the conclusions made on that post.

That is, do exist some spots/events/situations where the above conclusions might be wrong or at least not totally true?

Do we really think that a 5, 6, 12 or 20 term progression could get the best of the random world?

As long as any opposite event will be placed into the -25 LIAR and +25 WIAR range (of course I'm just limiting the random world to a 5 sr deviation and we know such limits will be surpassed) we cannot win by any progression.

An " opposite event" could be B/P hands or singles/streaks or doubles/2+s or any subjective strategy and so on.
Sooner or later we'll lose (or win) close to 25 hands in a row and many proportional situations like 10 LIAR followed by one win and another 10-12 or more LIAR.

The only way to get a kind of control over the outcomes itlr, IMO, is finding opposite events having a lesser variance and, more importantly, to start the betting at a point far different from a zero point where everything can happen.

Surely everything can happen even after having made some adjustments but the sum of our selected wagers TEND to get better results.
But it takes time to do that.

And the word "bet selection" must be intended not as the times we want to bet, instead the situations we've chosen not to bet.
There are no good or bad opportunities to bet, there are just some statistical features working on it.

A single B or P hand or a single shoe is just an infinitesimal trait of the whole picture.

as.