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[Bally6354]

Can't really say I play much Baccarat...however I had a free casino bonus to play online and decided to give it a go.

I decided to follow the advice from the Wiz and stick to Banker. It was a bad move because Player won 20 out of the first 27 hands. But it got me thinking. Player won the first hand, Banker won the second hand and then Player went on a streak.

So how about playing whatever the first decision is for the rest of the shoe as long as it stays ahead or at least equal with the alternative bet.

It's a simple idea and I wonder if anyone has tried it or tested it.

You can never go more than one decision behind in any shoe. The only sticky point may be if you are betting bank and it stays even. You are going to be paying the 5% and not going anywhere fast.

cheers

[ADulay]

I decided to follow the advice from the Wiz and stick to Banker.

OK, first mistake.  Following the "Wiz" for advice.  Read his stuff with a grain of salt and consider the source.

So how about playing whatever the first decision is for the rest of the shoe as long as it stays ahead or at least equal with the alternative bet.

It's a simple idea and I wonder if anyone has tried it or tested it.

You can never go more than one decision behind in any shoe.

The problem becomes when you start off with a bet based on your events and it never stays at zero or ahead.  You'll wind up waiting there all shoe long for "your" side to catch up and run ahead.   Bad plan.

Yes, it has been tested.  You're attempting to play a "strong sided" system and "hoping" it stays strong.  There is no recourse when it goes back to neutral or negative, all based on the first hand?

AD

[Bally6354]

The problem becomes when you start off with a bet based on your events and it never stays at zero or ahead.  You'll wind up waiting there all shoe long for "your" side to catch up and run ahead.   Bad plan.

Hello ADulay,

That's not really what I had in mind.

What I am suggesting is that you would quit a shoe as soon as your selection went one bet behind.

Here is an example.


First hand.  Player. (so player is the leader) I will now continue to bet player until it goes behind banker in the win/loss ratio.

Second hand. Banker. 1 vs 1 now. I am still betting player.

Third hand. Player. 2 vs 1.

Fourth hand. Banker. 2 vs 2.

Fifth hand. Banker. 2 vs 3.  Now I would quit this shoe because the original leader (player) has went behind 3-2.


My reasoning behind it is something I have noticed a lot in roulette and that is you sometimes get a leader and that leader can stay ahead for a very long time. There are times something catches up and then the leader streaks ahead again.

So I was wondering how that would translate to a shoe game. The only subjective decision would be when to quit with a profit or someone could just play through the whole shoe as long as their selection did not fall behind.


More examples:

B (bet banker)
P 1vs1
P 1vs2  quit shoe. -2.

P (bet player)
P 2vs0
P 3vs0
P 4vs0........+3 here so far.

B (bet banker)
P 1vs1
B 2vs1
P 2vs2
B 3vs2
B 4vs2.........+1 here so far.


A player could use a kind of sliding scale progression when approaching a new table depending on previous results.


cheers

[monaco]

hi Bally


I do remember a few similar type experiments on the old Baccarat forums.


I don't think they were exactly like yours, where you follow the 1st hand out, but more like 'see which side reaches 5 first, and as long it's at least 2 (or 3 - I can't quite remember) ahead of the other, play that side'.


There were some figures produced showing that if a side is ahead after say 10 hands, then a high percentage will remain ahead by the end of the shoe. The problem of course was that if you were ahead 8-2 after 10, by the end you could still be ahead fulfilling the premise, but maybe only by 2.


For your way, you could maybe use a trailing stop in case you picked a winning side? & I agree, grinding along on Banker can be a real pain with the commission.

[ADulay]

What I am suggesting is that you would quit a shoe as soon as your selection went one bet behind.

Here is an example.


First hand.  Player. (so player is the leader) I will now continue to bet player until it goes behind banker in the win/loss ratio.

Second hand. Banker. 1 vs 1 now. I am still betting player.

Third hand. Player. 2 vs 1.

Fourth hand. Banker. 2 vs 2.

Fifth hand. Banker. 2 vs 3.  Now I would quit this shoe because the original leader (player) has went behind 3-2.

OK, I think I've got it now.

So, I grabbed the trusty baccarat history book of shoes and randomly opened it to shoe #570.  Playing the next 5 shoes based on your plan it looked like this . . .

Shoe 570   -2 units at hand 9 starting with Player.
Shoe 571   -2 units at hand 8 starting with Banker.
Shoe 572 +13 units run all the way though starting with Banker.
Shoe 573  -1  units at hand 5 starting with Player.
Shoe 574  +9 units run all the way through starting with Banker.

Not a bad idea, based on this very small sample.  Of course you've just "played" for over 5 hours to produce a +17 units out of the 5 shoes.  Poor way to make money on a $5 table.  Great way if your base wager is $500!!

As this is a slightly different way of looking at an old idea, I'll try to track down some free time and modify an Excel spreadsheet I've got that covers this type of wagering play.

As usual, I'm always open to new ideas and will check things like this as they come up.  Here's hoping the free time shows up over the weekend.

AD

[NathanDetroit]

http://www.gamblersglenn.com/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=240&p=1087#p1087

SEE post by WASHOO2

[Bally6354]

Cheers for the replies guys!

That would be great AD if you could make a spreadsheet for it.

There are plenty of shoes out there to do some testing on for anybody interested.

Thanks

[BacDealer]

Can't really say I play much Baccarat...however I had a free casino bonus to play online and decided to give it a go.

I decided to follow the advice from the Wiz and stick to Banker. It was a bad move because Player won 20 out of the first 27 hands. But it got me thinking. Player won the first hand, Banker won the second hand and then Player went on a streak.

So how about playing whatever the first decision is for the rest of the shoe as long as it stays ahead or at least equal with the alternative bet.

It's a simple idea and I wonder if anyone has tried it or tested it.

You can never go more than one decision behind in any shoe. The only sticky point may be if you are betting bank and it stays even. You are going to be paying the 5% and not going anywhere fast.

cheers

Choose your betting style and go with it.

If you area Positive bettor, then simply follow the outcome of each hand and bet with it.
If you are a negative bettor then simply bet the opposite of each outcome.

If you choose to play only Banker, then the best advise is to wait for Banker to win and then make your bet on Banker. If Player comes, then wait till Banker wins before making your next bet.

if you choose a "Stepladder" style betting, then you can chase your Bet of choice.