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[alrelax]

Thanks for your reply Al.

I try to rephrase the point #2.

Every bac player in the universe (me first) will get THE SAME AMOUNT OF W/L HANDS OR THE SAME W/L PATTERNS and even choosing to wager only B side the difference is just 0.18% (0.23% at EZ bac).  (I think of this all the time and I look at the score board, 42 Bankers and 27 Players and 11 ties.  Sure bet the Banker for every single hand, insane way to play and certainly will eventually go broke or never make money, but some people do. And then the next shoe is 37 Bankers and 36 Players and 9 Ties.  And then the next shoe is 41 Players and 29 Bankers and 8 Ties.  And so on.  Win some and lose some.  Suck A** way of playing, meaningless and stupid in every sense.  And yes, you will win as many as you lose if not more.  The way to win, when you can, is selective pouncing on it, but how each one of us discovers that spot/section/time is individual for countless reasons and that is were I have been explaining, detailing, and developing what I have found after tens of thousand of hands and decades of play.)

Say by playing a given method, I started the session crossing a WWWLW sequence getting me five units of profit (+5).
When I'll encounter the same specular LLLWL sequence, I must lose at most the same number of bets (that is up to -5).
If per every equal specular sequence I'll get more W units than L units I'll be a long term winner.  (It is not in a given method, no matter if that is 3 hands a shoe, 13 hands a shoe, 33 hands a shoe or 80 hands a shoe.  It is in the interpretation of a certain amount of unknown and variable hands within Sections and their respective turning points)

Thus a WWWWWW sequence (having a 1/64 probability to appear) must give me more units profit than the deficit of what a LLLLLLL sequence produces (having the same 1/64 probability to show up). (But the same things, the same numbers of W's and L's will never be consistent.  Sure, in one section, say you wager 12 times in XYZ numbers of hands played.  Maybe you will WIN 8 times and LOSE 4 times. And maybe you will do that for 10 sections of 12 over XYZ numbers of shoes or hands actually played.  You are a winner if you flatbet or if your WINS were with a greater amount of wager value than the LOSSES were, of course.  But say you wager 12 times within one shoe and 4 of your WINS were with $2,000.00 each and the other 8 LOSSES were with $200.00 each.  You would have won $6,400.00.  Yes, how do you know when to bet the $2,000.00 and when to drop it to $200.00, that is another story for another time, that is what I have been detailing and people like Jimske pointing out and labeling my details (or attempt at them) fallacy, dreams, wishful thinking, etc., etc., etc. which in itself is drama, sucks and belongs elsewhere.  Sure it is easy as pie to come on and say the things Xander did with 98% one liners that are redundant, funny, Saturday Night Live TV Style, Bill Maher style to the max, etc., but they dwell on everything is unbeatable but they win because they know how to play and walk away.  Well maybe they also believe McDonald's has a scrumptious #3 meal that they order, take to the corner, sit down on hard plastic stools with dirty floors and grease fryers stinking up the place, and unwrapped their #3, take a bite of their seemingly delicious #3 with their dried out bun, their beef patty that has tons of fillers and alternatives in it, their fries that are lukewarm and over-salted and whatever else it came with and really do enjoy it.  While I am at my house with my pasta sauce made from scratch that took a good hour, pasta boiling, a french baguette from the bakery I rubbed a Roma tomatoes on, spread sliced roasted garlic and basil and parsley on and baked it, cut up some pepperoncini peppers, a Roma tomato, some garlic stuff olives, a yellow bell pepper, a few slices of red onion a couple mushrooms, an orange, and apple and a few pieces of arugula, parsley and basil leaves on the side and put it all together with a drizzle of olive oil and other seasonings, and ate.  Each of us in haven of course, the other guy with his #3 in the corner of McDonald's and myself with my type of food that the #3 guy would shrug his shoulders at and say, horrible, puke it up if I ate that.)   

It's just a matter of time to get the same amount of WL patterns, unfortunately as we want to be shifted on W side and not aiming to break even, we must expect more L patterns in many situations. (Yes of course, more L's than wins, no matter what you are looking at, expecting or attempting to do.  Always, always, always.  But there are so many other facets to playing bac and it is just not wagering XYZ and XYZ will produce ABC ($s Winning dollars) by any means.  What almost all do not understand and really have no idea is that, the same thing that produced a win just before will be the same thing that produces a loss, or perhaps the same thing that produced that win will produce the next 7 wins the exact same way.)

as.









 

 

[alrelax]

The game is volatile to the max if you are a player that swings your wagers and brings a decent buy in depending on the wagers you will make and what your goals are.

Most players do not have goals, they have limits based upon their pockets and possibilities. 

Read that, pockets and possibilities.  Meaning, how much is in your pocket and what you have availability to obtain.  And, possibilities.  What you think you can win and you are willing to put out there to risk.

Then, adding insult to injury on yourself and what you push onto others, lots of people reach their goals at the tables but they do not stop, they continue and then, that is the exact darn point the plot thickens and usually lies come out of the mouth of the gamblers as to how they never won, the casino cheated, they thought this or that and nothing makes sense as to what really happened or did not happen, etc. Coupled with the fact that will never change, the longer you stay at the table the more chance you have to loose.  You will loose, but how much can you win and how much can you hold is the key questions that seldom really get addressed or answered.     

It is 2:30 am right now, i have been up the past 2 hours getting phone call after phone call from my buddy that lost the 18k the past couple of weeks, he is currently up $63K in 3 shoes.  It is a long story that started at 6pm or so. 

ADDING THIS:  It is 3:15AM, he is up to $71K after going down to $48K.  There are 3 other people at the table, one other one is winning and the other 2 are losing well over $10k each.  They are at a $25/$5,000 table.  He is playing about every 4th or 5th hand.  He losses quicker than he gains and it effect him, I told him to walk away. He started with $4,500.00 buy in. 

[alrelax]

Attached

[attachimg=1]

[alrelax]

attached post from my phone at 4:45. i will update in morning, i am going to sleep, he will call me, I called the girl he gave the cash to, she is out of there, i made sure!  I am going to sleep.

[attachimg=1]

[alrelax]

I am on the phone with him, will update here in a little bit, some things are unclear--got some PMs that questioned the time, why I do not know.

[alrelax]

About 3:45AM he starts a second shoe, or at least waiting for the shuffle.  Then some lady comes in that I detest, as there is always a problem with her.  Always!  I mean every game she plays, problem is, she brings lots of cash for the region I am in, like $20,000.00-$25,000 every time.  This is not Vegas, so that is a sizable amount for this region on a regular basis anyways. 

I pleaded with him to get rid of at least $50k of his win and completely reset, he did not want to and I know what happens the highest majority of the time when you hold your win cash or chips.  It did to me for years, and every one I knew or know when they win, especially a lot of money.  I have written about it for years now.  It does not generally matter who, where or how you play, wins influence your decision and goals, influence you and change you almost all the time.  It takes huge will power along with lots of experience to know how to hold and divide up win money inside a casino and your continued access to it, period.  (I am sure some of the old timers can comment on this???)

At about 4:25 AM They finally get the next shoe underway because there was a common stall among the 3 or 4 players there.  Then the lady came in and on her second hand, the second hand of the shoe, she physically throws her drink into the dealer's bank-chip rack and the game is shut down.  Security had to be called and she got a taking to.  Took about half an hour to game going once again. 

Someone PMd me a bit ago and questioned the times.  I do not know why but I will reprint the text from him with the time I received the first text, the other time from the second text is not showing which was not long after the first one when she threw her drink. 

He promised me he was going to hold $10,000.00 of his cash and wager about 6 hands as you seen in another text he sent me.  The bottom line is he got up to $89,000.00 win and he he gave back $29,000.00 and played like 2 more shoes.  He walked with $9,000.00 after sending the first $50k out.  So I assume he won right at $55k with his buy in returned.  Maybe more because he does have lots of family that plays there and probably loaned some money out, IDK for sure but I know he always does. 

Point of all this is, there is a point of no return, there is a point of losing and not being able to continue a win, hot streak, heater, whatever you are on, each and every single time.  I know first hand and I know from hard core real experience, wins are lost and wins are lost because of our stupid warped minds and we justify giving them back or putting them at further risk, because we classify our win status as rock solid, holy grail, impervious to any further losing, etc., etc.  All of us.  If you personally are not included in that, congrats--but the rest of us are.

There was no need for him to lose that other $29,000.00.  Maybe $9,000.00 to $12,000.00 of it but not the $29,000.00.  If you are going to win, you will win on smaller rather than larger or longer.  If you cannot win, you will loose whatever is in your possession 98 to 99 plus times out of 100 times.  This is the hard core gospel truth guys.  I pleaded with him to understand how much to hold out and forget about. I tried to get him to hold $70,000.00 and keep playing with the remainder, but he would not.  And just a few minuets ago he stopped by my house and we talked.  He admitted how stupid he was and had no idea he could justify for losing that additional $29,000.00.  He pinpointed down that his losses really started the point of no return when he lost right at $10,000.00 of the money of which he wound up losing $29,000.00.  $19,000.00 is a boat load of extra cash outside of the casino, huge amount!   He almost listened but problem is, he views all of his losses collectively and attempts to make up, and again, IMO, that is not the way to think at the table. 

Maintain a bank roll, play with buy ins that are in proportion to that divided up.  Wins are never added to the bank roll except to replenish it, and DO NOT increase it.  I subscribe to plateaus and Levels and most of the people I play with have found those extremely beneficial to their play and knowledge at the tables.  If you do a 1/3rd money management method, abide by it, aware and play according to your plateaus and level, etc., you will not give back your wins and you will play more in your advantage than in the casinos.  Period.  End of story. 

[attachimg=1]

[AsymBacGuy]

Two of the several point you have illustrated are, imo, of special importance:

- the reasons why we got a W are the same why we got a L.
We humans can't interfere with the natural process of forming hands.

- point of no return.

Many think the point of no return happens whenever we have lost a lot and odds dictate we are very very dog to recover the money lost.

Wrong!

Point of no return could happen even though we are losing just 2, 3 or 4 hands.
Actually long L patterns happen right when LL or LLL or LLLL situations show up.
In order to win we need more W hands than L ones and the probability that a losing sequence will stop should restricted to just one step (LW) or, at most to LLW.
Balancements are not acting so promptly, everyone here knows that a LLLL sequence won't be followed by an instant WWWW pattern. (Think how is unlikely to get BBBBPPPP or PPPPBBBB)

That is when we had the "misfortune" to be behind, we must act very cautiously as we are more likely to lose again WITHIN SHORT TERMS.

Every bac player should sit at the table with a bankroll of 10 units trying to defend it at any cost.
The goal is not to win something but to preserve it.
Of course bets won add to player's bankroll reducing the probability to lose it and when the bankroll is over the gambling life is finished.

Now I'm asking if anyone is interested to try to guess a lot of hands with the risk of burning out the bankroll or to try to increase the bankroll's life step by step.
On the same line, we'll see that after losing two or three hands we're in the realm of fear and after having collected two or three units we'll make our best effort to preserve them, leaving the "you'll never know" hope to gullible players.

I swear that it's way more profitable (or less disadvantegous) to wager high on rare occasions that to bet low frequently.

Next time you'll sit at a bac table try to play with your last 10 units.
i'm certain you'll finish your session up of something.

as.











 

[alrelax]

I will comment more later, on the way to pick up my buddy and we are going to the casino tonight!

FYI and the way I talk. 

Buy in, is what we all bring to the casino to buy in with no matter if one or two or three or whatever buy ins, personally I usually only do one buy in per session, trip.
My buy in is from my bank roll.  My bank roll does not leave the house ever.  I take my portion that will be classified my buy in for the session or trip.

If lost, another buy in will be removed.  When winning money all previous buy ins are replaced.

I personally do not alter my bank roll as I find that unacceptable and wrong, pressure and I play at my plateau and level I am comfortable at, playing to increase a bankroll is dangerous IMO.

[alrelax]

Point of no return.  IMO, means, the point at which you are sucked in, locked in and you are hell bent to get back your buy in, continued buy ins or the win money you lost.  Either ones. 

I stand fast and hard on my 1/3rd with my win money.  Also my buy in is risk money and pure risk.  No stop loss.  The stop loss would be my buy in.  My Buy in is a portion (small) of my Bank roll.  I do not find anything else comfortable to play with. 

[alrelax]

Will post 6 pictures of 2 and 1/2 shoes,  they let us take.   Great hands we had absolutely fantastic!   Will post in a couple of hours after we go eat and I get home we're calling it a night we played for just a little bit more than two shoes may be about 30 hands total we wagered on winning 25 or so.

[alrelax]

Here are the shoes we played:

First Shoe:

[attachimg=1]

Second Shoe:

[attachimg=2]

Second Shoe Middle:

[attachimg=3]

Second Shoe Late:

[attachimg=4]

Third Shoe:

[attachimg=5]

Third Shoe we played until hand 22:

[attachimg=6]

[alrelax]

Here is the first shoe with the 5 sections we were playing out as sections and their turning points:

[attachimg=1]


Okay let me try to explain this.  Lots went on last night, all good, almost anyway.  Today my buddy is crashed out on my living room floor, wrapped in like three blankets with all my couch pillows around him, LOL!  We got out of the casino around 10 PM, got there around 5PM, played 2 and a half shoes.  He brought $5,000.00 and I brought $3,500.00.  We planned on staying most of the night and banging it out, but we really huddled up and said, if we see something--just go for it, do not dwell on it or get caught up in the rest of the table and what they do, which happens and happens all the time. 

I will first try to walk you through the shoe and what happened, then i will go into some specific wagers.  I think our total wagers were about 30, each shoe had about 10 or so.  WE pretty much copied each other, the other might have been larger or smaller but we did not complicated ourselves by wager against each other or anything of the likes, which happens but we stopped that before it could.

Section A.  Player totaled 4, all singles.  Banker totaled 5 with 2 doubles.  Not much, just weak, pretty normal start.  I think all cards pulled for the Player 3rd card or the Banker 3rd cards were either increases to 8s or 9s or an instant win for that side.  Like I said, pretty normal by the Big Road but the 3rd card proved to be a consistent advantage to whatever side got it, no matter if that was P or B.

We really did not wager on anything in Section A.  Section B comes.  Banker totals 13 and Player totals 5.  Now we are sitting at Banker 18 and Player 9, exactly double in total numbers.  But what was evident to us as it was happening was the sudden change to 3s and 4s.  Another very much normal change up or come about, whatever you want to label it. 

[AsymBacGuy]

Don't you think that ties displayed by separate entities could be a bit confusing?

as.

[alrelax]

Don't you think that ties displayed by separate entities could be a bit confusing?

as.

Ties, like most other things within each shoe, can stick, cut or cause something else you classify what happens, comes about because of the previous hand/event.

A great example is within that second shoe we played last night I posted. 

But, IMO it will only confuse you or possibly take away from something if you put too much emphasis on basing something off of the previous.  I can discount the ties out personally.

[alrelax]

Second shoe with sections and turning points:

[attachimg=1]


Third shoe with sections and turning points started:

[attachimg=2]